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India's Water Future to 2025–2050: Business-As-Usual Scenario And

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India's Water Future to 2025–2050: Business-As-Usual Scenario And Research Reports IWMI’s mission is to improve water and land resources management for food, livelihoods and nature. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems—practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources. The publications in this series cover a wide range of subjects—from computer modeling to experience with water user associations—and vary in content from directly applicable research to more basic studies, on which applied work ultimately depends. Some research reports are narrowly focused, analytical and detailed empirical studies; others are wide-ranging and synthetic overviews of generic problems. Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI’s own staff and Fellows, and by external reviewers. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi.org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. Research Report 123 India’s Water Future to 2025–2050: Business-as-Usual Scenario and Deviations Upali A. Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah, Hugh Turral and B. K. Anand International Water Management Institute P O Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka i IWMI receives its principal funding from 58 governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations known as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Support is also given by the Governments of Ghana, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Thailand. The authors: Upali A. Amarasinghe is a Senior Researcher and Tushaar Shah a Principal Researcher and Senior Advisor to the Director General, both at the International Water Management Institute office based in India; Hugh Turral was a Principal Researcher and former leader of the Basin Water Management theme of the International Water Management Institute; and B. K. Anand was a consultant to the IWMI-India office in New Delhi. Acknowledgements: Funds provided by the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food made it possible to do this research. The authors thank Charlotte de Fraiture, Head of Basin Water Management Theme of the International Water Management Institute for providing a critical review that helped improve the quality of the report. They also appreciate the comments of many Indian scholars and other participants of various workshops where the initial draft of this report was presented. Amarasinghe, U. A.; Shah, T.; Turral, H.; Anand, B. K. 2007. India’s water future to 2025- 2050: Business-as-usual scenario and deviations. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. 47p. (IWMI Research Report 123) / water use / water demand / economic growth / crop production / food security / river basins / water availability / consumption / crop yield / population growth / groundwater irrigation / crops / diversification / policy / simulation models / India / ISSN 1026-0862 ISBN 978-92-9090-687-2 Copyright © 2007, by IWMI. All rights reserved. Cover map generated by Upali Amarasinghe shows the degree of development of Indian river basins under the business-as-usual scenario water supply and demand. The degrees of development in different years are authors’ estimates given in this report. Please send inquiries and comments to: [email protected] Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms iv Summary v Introduction 1 Data and Methodology 2 Business-as-Usual Scenario to 2025–2050: Story Line 4 Business-as-Usual Scenario Projections 10 Other Scenarios: Deviations from BAU 16 Summary and Policy Implications 22 Annexes 25 Glossary 38 References 39 iii iii Abbreviations and Acronyms BAU Business-as-usual Bm3 Billion cubic meters CWC Central Water Commission EFR Environmental flow requirement EMC Environmental management class EWD Environmental water demand FAI Fertilizer Association of India FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FCF Feed conversion factor GCA Gross cropped area GDP Gross domestic product GIA Gross irrigated area GWE Groundwater efficiency GOI Government of India IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IWMI International Water Management Institute kcal Kilocalories lpcd Liters per capita per day MAI Moisture availability index MAR Mean annual runoff MFR Minimum flow requirement Mha Million hectares Mmt Million metric tonnes NCIWRD National Commission for Integrated Water Resources Development NGWIA Net groundwater irrigated area NIA Net irrigated area NSA Net surface irrigated area NSSO National Sample Survey Organization PODIUMSIM Policy Dialogue Model Simulation WTO World Trade Organization iv Summary With a rapidly expanding economy many changes Irrigation water withdrawals under the BAU are taking place in India today. Some of these scenario are sufficient to meet most of the future changes will have substantial implications on food demand. The BAU projects a small production India’s water future. Land use, cropping and water surplus of grain crops, and a small production use patterns are changing, partly as responses to deficit of non-grains crops. Overall, the BAU changing demographic and consumption patterns, scenario projects a small deficit of crop production and partly as responses to changing investment of all crops by 2050. Although the BAU scenario is scenarios and economic growth. This report optimistic in meeting the future food demand, its attempts to capture the trends of key drivers of water use patterns will lead to a severe regional water demand in the recent past, and assess their water crisis by 2050. Many river basins will reach implications on future water demand. The business- closure, will be physically water-scarce and will as-usual (BAU) scenario in this report assumes the have regions with severely overexploited continuation of current trends and projects India’s groundwater resources. water future to 2025–2050. Assessment of possible deviations from the The BAU scenario projects the total water BAU scenario shows rather optimistic and demand to increase by 22% and 32% by 2025 and pessimistic scenarios. While higher growth of both 2050, respectively, from the present level of 680 urban population and feed demand for the livestock billion cubic meters (Bm3). The industrial and population will increase water demand, the domestic sectors will account for 85% of the productivity growth, higher groundwater irrigated additional demand by 2050. Groundwater dominates area and efficiency growth will reduce irrigation irrigation growth of the BAU scenario and will share demand significantly. In order to reach the benefits 60% of the area and 51% of the total irrigation by of the latter scenarios, India requires investments in 2050. This, along with higher irrigation efficiencies, interventions in recharging groundwater, spreading will decrease the water demand for irrigation over water saving technologies and increasing crop the period 2025–2050. productivity growth. v vi India’s Water Future to 2025–2050: Business-as-Usual Scenario and Deviations Upali A. Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah, Hugh Turral and B. K. Anand Introduction For many reasons, India has occupied a center Food and water demand projections of India— stage in global food and water supply and demand which are experiencing rapid economic and projections. First, with a population of over a demographic changes—need regular updating. For billion, India is the second most populous country the base year, many recent projection studies used in the world. By the middle of this century it needs information relevant to the period from the late to feed an extra population of 500 million. Second, 1980s through the early 1990s. One such study, India has had a huge economy and a remarkable considered a blueprint for water resources economic growth in the last decade. With the management and planning of India, is the 1998 booming economy, people’s expenditure patterns water demand projections of the National are changing; so do their lifestyles. Rapid Commission for Integrated Water Resources urbanization is also adding fuel to these changes. Development (NCIWRD) (GOI 1999). For the base As a result, food consumption patterns are year, the NCIWRD projections used data relevant changing—changes a traditional country like India to 1993–1994, and the trends relevant to the 1980s would not have imagined a few decades ago. The for future projections. However, many unforeseen changing food consumption patterns are so changes, which affected the demand projections, significant that they have a considerable impact on took place in the last decade. In particular, the the needs of future food and water demand. Third, changes due to economic liberalization in India in and perhaps the most critical, is that India has the early 1990s are only visible now. Due to these significant spatial mismatches of the population changes, some food and water demand drivers, and water resources (Amarasinghe et al. 2005). which are endogenous to India, such as food Less water is available in places where more consumption and land use patterns, and people live and much of the food is grown. Some exogenous to India, such as the world food trade, river basins are already experiencing physical are fast changing. Therefore, in this context, many water scarcities. A few others face problems of of the past food and
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