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Assessment of the Vulnerability of Peatland Carbon in the Albany Ecodistrict of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Canada to Climate Change

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Assessment of the Vulnerability of Peatland Carbon in the Albany Ecodistrict of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Canada to Climate Change Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Assessment of the vulnerability Science and Research of peatland carbon in the Albany Ecodistrict of the 46 Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, CLIMATE CHANGE Canada to climate change RESEARCH REPORT CCRR-46 Responding to Climate Change Through Partnership Assessment of the vulnerability of peatland carbon in the Albany Ecodistrict of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Canada to climate change Jim McLaughlin, Maara Packalen, and Bharat Shrestha Forest Research and Monitoring Section Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry 2018 Science and Research Branch • Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry © 2018, Queen’s Printer for Ontario Printed in Ontario, Canada Single copies of this publication are available from [email protected]. Cette publication hautement spécialisée Assessment of the Vulnerability of Peatland Carbon in the Albany Ecodistrict of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Canada to Climate Change n’est disponible qu’en anglais conformément au Règlement 671/92, selon lequel il n’est pas obligatoire de la traduire en vertu de la Loi sur les services en français. Pour obtenir des renseignements en français, veuillez communiquer avec le ministère des Richesses naturelles et des Forêts au [email protected]. Some of the information in this document may not be compatible with assistive technologies. If you need any of the information in an alternate format, please contact [email protected]. Cite this report as: McLaughlin, J., M. Packalen and B. Shrestha. 2018. Assessment of the vulnerability of peatland carbon in the Albany Ecodistrict of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Canada to climate change. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Science and Research Branch, Peterborough, ON. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-46. 40 p. + append. Summary Peatlands (soil organic horizon of 40 cm or more) help regulate climate by sequestering (net removal) carbon (C) from the atmosphere and storing it in plants and soils. Peatlands are separated into bogs, which receive water from precipitation, and fens, which receive water from precipitation and groundwater. Weather and geologic conditions interactively determine the specific peatland types that occur on a landscape and their C sequestration and storage potential. Peatland C has been extensively researched but contrasting results are reported for peatland C gains from, and losses to, the atmosphere in response to altered climatic conditions. Thus, uncertainty is high in forecasts of future C exchange between peatlands and the atmosphere and subsequent storage in plants and soils. Understanding interactive effects of weather and geology on ecosystem conditions is needed to adequately assess the vulnerability of peatland C to future climate change. In this report, published data were synthesized and new data produced pertaining to climate change, C flux and mass, land cover, landscape position (defined here as elevation), fire records, and current and future climate scenarios. Conditional probability tables (CPTs) were produced to inform a Bayesian belief network (BBN) with four tiers: (1) exposure, expressed as mean annual air temperature (MAAT), and the state variables describing elevation and land cover; (2) sensitivity, expressed as ecosystem conditions relevant to C mass and its susceptibility to decomposition, peat wetness, fire, and permafrost thaw; (3) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes and net peat C depletion; and (4) adaptive capacity of the net peat C balance under warmer air temperature. Simulations were conducted using current (-3.0 to 0.0 ᵒC), moderately warmer (0.1 to 4.0 ᵒC), and severely warmer (4.1 to 9.0 ᵒC) climate scenarios for the Albany Ecodistrict (Ecodistrict 2E-1), Ontario, Canada. The ecodistrict is approximately 7.4 million hectares, with nearly 75% of the land cover comprising fen and bog (Crins et al. 2009, Riley 2011). Permafrost (subsurface earth materials colder than 0 ᵒC for at least two consecutive years) is primarily classified in coniferous swamp or coniferous treed cover classes in the ecodistrict (OMNRF 2014). For the Albany Ecodistrict, the severely warmer climate scenario projected an overall drying of peat. For net ecosystem exchange of CO2, the strong sink category decreased by 22%. This decrease was offset by increased sources in the severely and, to a lesser degree, in the moderately warmer climate scenarios relative to that under current MAAT. In the warmest MAAT simulation, CH4 emission decreased slightly and the probability of peat C depletion being a strong sink decreased by 27%. Combined, changes in C fluxes contributed to a 21% lower probability of the net peat C balance being a strong C sink under the severely warmer climate scenario relative to that under current MAAT. Because of wide variation in climate, ecosystem, and C conditions, significant differences in these changes are often barely detectable using statistical hypothesis testing. Thus, the net peat C balance in the Albany Ecodistrict will likely remain an overall C sink and rates of sequestration will decrease slightly under the most severe temperature increases, thereby displaying moderate to high adaptive capacity. Sensitivity analyses revealed net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and CH4 emission as most responsive to peat wetness and peat C depletion as most responsive to fire disturbance. Net peat C balance was most sensitive to changes in CO2, indicating the priority for field research and monitoring should be to obtain the data required to constrain CPTs for CO2 fluxes in future versions of the BBN or to simulate net peat C balance using spatially explicit or process based models. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-46 i Résumé Les tourbières (horizon organique du sol de 40 cm ou plus) aident à réguler le climat en séquestrant (retrait net) du carbone (C) de l’atmosphère et en le stockant dans les plantes et les sols. Les tourbières se divisent en tourbières hautes, qui reçoivent l’eau de précipitations, et en tourbières basses, qui reçoivent l’eau de précipitations et l’eau souterraine. Ce sont les conditions météorologiques et géologiques qui déterminent, de manière interactive, les types précis de tourbières qui se forment dans un paysage, ainsi que leur capacité de séquestration et de stockage de carbone. Le carbone des tourbières a fait l’objet de nombreuses études, mais différents résultats sont communiqués quant aux gains en C de tourbières tiré de l’atmosphère, et aux pertes de C dans l’atmosphère, lorsque les conditions climatiques sont modifiées. C’est pourquoi il y a beaucoup d’incertitude quant aux prévisions d’échanges de C entre les tourbières et l’atmosphère dans l’avenir, et du stockage subséquent du C dans les plantes et les sols. Les effets des conditions météorologiques et géologiques sur les conditions écosystémiques doivent être compris pour évaluer adéquatement la vulnérabilité du C des tourbières aux changements climatiques futurs. Le présent rapport contient un résumé des données publiées, ainsi que des données nouvelles obtenues sur le changement climatique, le flux et la masse de carbone, la couverture terrestre et l’emplacement du paysage (défini ici comme étant une élévation), de même que des données nouvelles tirées de rapports d’incendie et en utilisant des scénarios actuels et futurs d’évolution climatique. Des tableaux de probabilité conditionnelle (TPC) ont été produits afin d’orienter un réseau de croyances bayésiennes (RCB) dans quatre domaines : 1) l’exposition, exprimée en tant que température annuelle moyenne de l’air (TAMA), et les variables d’état décrivant l’élévation et la couverture terrestre; 2) la sensibilité, exprimée en tant que conditions écosystémiques touchant la masse de C et sa susceptibilité à la décomposition, à l’humidité de la tourbe, au feu et au dégel du pergélisol; 3) les flux de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) et de méthane (CH4) et l’épuisement du C de tourbe net; ainsi que 4) la capacité adaptive du solde net de C des tourbières lorsque la température de l’air est plus chaude. Des simulations ont été effectuées en utilisant des scénarios climatiques actuels (de -3,0 à 0,0 ᵒC), des scénarios climatiques modérément plus chauds (de 0,1 à 4,0 ᵒC) et des scénarios climatiques considérablement plus chauds (de 4,1 à 9,0 ᵒC) pour l’écodistrict d’Albany (écodistrict 2E- 1), en Ontario (Canada). L’écodistrict couvre environ 7,4 millions d’hectares, avec près de 75 % de la couverture terrestre composée de tourbières basses et de tourbières hautes (Crins et coll. 2009, Riley 2011). Le pergélisol (matériaux en subsurface enregistrant des températures inférieures à 0 ᵒC pendant au moins deux années consécutives) est surtout classé dans les catégories de marécages de conifères ou de couvertures arborées de conifères dans l’écodistrict (MRNFO 2014). Pour ce qui est de l’écodistrict d’Albany, un séchage général de la tourbe est prévu dans le scénario climatique considérablement plus chaud. En ce qui concerne les échanges écosystémiques nets de CO2, la catégorie de puits solide a diminué de 22 %. Cette diminution a été compensée par une multiplication des sources dans les scénarios climatiques considérablement plus chauds et, dans une mesure moindre, dans les scénarios modérément plus chauds comparativement aux conditions de TAMA. Dans la simulation de TAMA la plus chaude, les émissions de CH4 ont légèrement diminué, et la probabilité d’épuisement du C des tourbières comme solide puits de C a diminué de 27 %. Ensemble, les changements
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