8341 INSTITUTE F*Q8 SOCIAL US3ARY RELIGION AND CLASS IN ITALIAN ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR Samuel H. Barnes Professor of Political Science and Program Director, Center for Political Studies, Institute for Social Research The University of Michigan FINAL DRAFT chapter for Richard Rose (ed.), Comparative Electoral Behavior: An Introduction New York: Free Press. DRAFT: Please do not quote without explicit permission from the author. December 1970 Religion and Class in Italian Electoral Behavior I. Historical Background A. Social Structure since 1861 B. The Electoral System in the Twentieth Century C. The Party System in the Twentieth Century D. Competition for Seats E. Continuities and Discontinuities II. The Act of Voting Today A. Elections and Ballots B. The Legal Facilitation of Voting C. Elections Since the Fall of Fascism III. Data for Analysis A. Sample Surveys B. Secondary Analyses C. Ecological Analyses D. Non-Voting and Its Measurement E. Voting and its Measurement IV. Social Structure and Voting A. Sex B. Age C. Educa tion D. Religion E. Ethno-Linguistic Differences F. Region G. Urban-Rural H. Residential Mobility ii I. Mass Media J. Organizational Memberships K. Occupational Class L. Income M. Consumption Patterns arid Life Style N. Conditions of Employment 0. Subjective Class Assessment V. Social Psychological Influences A. Political Efficacy B. Interest in Politics C. Religious Influences VI. A Tree Analysis of Determinants of Italian Partisan Choice A. Some Contradictions in Italian Political Behavior B. Tree Analysis and the Variables Employed C. The Tree Analysis D. An Interpretation E. Behavioral Group Partisan Preferences VII. Conclusions A. Variables of Comparative Significance B. Countries Approximately Compared Tables Bibliography RELIGION AND CLASS IN ITALIAN ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR The fundamental political divisions of Italy have existed in their present mold for at least half a century. Their origins are even more remote, for the social cleavages of an industrial society are superimposed on previous lines of stratification and religion blurs further the political impact of class. Only recently has the impact of industrializa• tion begun to erode premodern fissures, hence their traces are likely to linger into the future. The result is a series of cleavages that originate in different ages and lead to contemporary structures of political conflict that sometimes seem to contradict and sometimes to confirm the conventional wisdom about political behavior. Thus according to the conventional wisdom Italy is badly fragmented politically. Cited as evidence is the existence of the largest nonruling Communist party in the world, a small neofascist movement, and a ruling Christian Democratic party that is based on religious values in an increas• ingly secular age and society. Italy also has Monarchist, Republican, Liberal and, at the time of writing, three Socialist parties represented in parliament. Political fragmentation and polarization coexist with low levels of mass education, slight interest in politics and one of the highest rates of electoral turnout in the world. Italy is also considered to be poorly integrated socially. Class divisions are sharp, differences between North and South remain highly salient, and the religious question divides otherwise similar groups. The Italian citizen is viewed as alienated and despairing, the government perpetually on the verge of collapse, and the administration chaotic. But Italy is also a European, industrial, parliamentary democracy. Compared with the universe of polities existing today it ranks very high on indices of political and economic development. It is only when compared with the countries of Northern Europe and North America that it appears behind in industrialization and tardy in effectuating a secularization of politics, national integration, and a homogeneous national political culture. Contemporary politics still reflect regional, religious, social and cultural differences of the past to a remarkable degree. This is of course true of all polities, but they are probably quantitatively somewhat more signifi• cant in Italy than in the other countries considered in this volume. 1 Certainly the conventional wisdom suggests this. Our goal in this chapter is to subject the conventional wisdom concerning Italian politics to a critical analysis in the light of empirical research. We will be concerned in particular with assessing the impact of religion and class on contemporary political attitudes and behavior. I. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND In determining what is the proper historical perspective needed for an analysis of contemporary Italian politics it is necessary to keep a number of dates in mind, for they serve as alternative cutoff points for different kinds of analyses. The first important date is when modern Italy begins-- 1861 (or, for some purposes, 1870, when Rome was incorporated). The next date of great significance for political behavior is the achievement of universal manhood suffrage in 1919. The third is the March on Rome on October 28, 1922. The final date is 1943, when military defeat and partisan -3- activity led to the overthrow of Fascism. Each of these dates is useful for some analyses and not for others. For most purposes, social scientists concerned with the political and especially electoral behavior of modern Italy will begin with 1861 or later. While statistical and other records exist for most of the states that were joined to form Italy, problems of access and comparability render them difficult to use; in general, since unification records have been excellent. In 1870 Rome was incorporated into the new Kingdom and made its capital. Territorial changes since that date have been marginal; the principal administrative subdivisions of the country have also not changed greatly. There has been considerable political continuity since unification, despite the change in regime and the experience of Fascism. However, the strength of different political forces in the country has altered greatly. During the nineteenth century the polity was dominated by the politics of trasformismo. This was the practice of putting together a government by dealing on an individual basis with members of parliament, securing their support by favors provided them and their constituents. Parties in the modern sense did not exist; factions developed around personalities and, to a lesser extent, vague ideological tendencies. In present-day political terms these elites were on the whole liberals in the European sense. Catholics were forbidden by the papal Non expedit (1874) to participate in politics because the Papal States were incorporated over the objections of the Pope and he in turn refused to cooperate with the new regime. In this heavily Catholic country the Pope's actions deprived the system of legitimacy in the eyes of many of its citizens, including groups that could h we been very important for its stability. Socialism and its rival, anarchism, became important in the later years of the century. The development of unity on the left then as now was difficult to achieve, with the socialist tendency finally dominating over anarchism. The Italian Socialist Party was bounded in 1892, and even with the electorate restricted by property and educational qualifications socialists began to be elected to the lower house. As the electorate gradually expanded due to relaxation of the requirements as well as the growing ability of the electorate to meet them, the prospects of socialist electoral success led first to a relaxation of the prohibition of Catholic political activity and then to its repeal by the time universal manhood suffrage was achieved in 1919. The 1919 elections were the first in which all adu.it males voted without property, educational or age restrictions. It was alco the first in which the clear outlines of the present party system are visible. Italian socialism was badly divided by the Russian Revolution. A general strike in Italy failed to bring down the government and the party was gravely weakened. It was further damaged in 1921 when its revolutionary wing broke away to form the Italian Communist Party. The Popular party, the forerunner of the present Christian Democratic Party, was a potential source of support for stability and democratic reforms; but it was ambivalent about cooperating with the Socialists, and governments remained weak and unstable. Although the Fascists had had only modest electoral success, Mussolini was invited to form a government follow• ing the "March on Rome" on October 28, 1922. (Mussolini arrived by trainJ) -5- The first Fascist government was a coalition. The members of other parties were soon weeded out and opposition parties had largely been destroyed and the dictatorship established by 1925. Whatever measure of broad support that Fascism received in its early years seems to have disappeared in the 1930's; though internal opposition was never very effective, Fascism could not survive the war. Mussolini had been appointed head of the government by the King and he was dismissed by the King in 1943, after the Fascist Grand Council had voted to oust him. Arrested, he was freed by the Germans and set up a Fascist Republic under their close control. When they retreated from Italy he was caught and executed by a partisan band. The Italians rejected the monarchy in a referendum in 1946 and at the same time elected a constituent assembly that drew up a new constitution. It is the basic document that governs Italy today. Several aspects