Orographic Cyclogenesis Learning Objectives Outline Climatological Context Global Topography January Climo (1981–2010)
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1/10/18 Orographic Cyclogenesis Learning Objectives and the Influence of Mountains on Extratropical Cyclones • After this lecture, students will – Recognize and understand how mountains affect the climatology and life-cycle of extratropical cyclones – Be able to diagnose past, current, and future cyclone evolution in areas of complex terrain EUMETSAT Jim Steenburgh – Have an improved ability to critically evaluate Department of Atmospheric Sciences scientific literature examining orographic cyclogenesis University of Utah [email protected] Outline • Climatological Context • Dynamical Mechanisms • Alberta Cyclogenesis Climatological Context • Alpine Lee Cyclogenesis • Intermountain Cyclogenesis Global Topography January Climo (1981–2010) Greenland Alps Himalaya Australia/NZ Antarctica 250-mb wind speed Data Source: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, ESRL 1 1/10/18 January Climo (1981–2010) July climo (1981–2010) 250-mb wind speed and 850-mb transient meridional momentum flux 250-mb wind speed Data Source: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, ESRL Data Source: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, ESRL July climo (1981–2010) NH Cyclogenesis/Lysis Density Alberta Himalaya Colorado Greenland Intermountain? Alps/Genoa 250-mb wind speed and 850-mb transient meridional momentum flux Hoskins and Hodges (2002), ERA-15 & ECMWF Operational Analyses 1979–2000 (T42 ~300 km) Data Source: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, ESRL Annual statistics for “feature-tracked” MSLP cyclones SH Cyclogenesis/Lysis Density January NA Climo Andes Antarctic Peninsula NZ Alps Great Dividing Range Genesis Lysis Hoskins and Hodges (2005), ERA-40 1958–2002 (T159 ~125 km) Zishka and Smith (1980), NOAA monthly cyclone track maps 1950–1977 JJA statistics for ξ850 cyclones 2 1/10/18 July NA Climo Mesoscale Effects Zishka and Smith (1980), NOAA monthly cyclone track maps 1950–1977 Chung et al. (1976), Cyclogenesis Frequency during 1958 Class Discussion Intermountain Cyclones Cyclone Density IC-Genesis ERA Petterssen (1956) Winter Cyclone Frequency Zishka and Smith (1980) Jan Cyclone Events NARR Wernli and Schwierz (2006) Reitan (1974) Apr Cyclone Frequency DJF Cyclone Frequency Are Intermountain cyclones a statistical phantom or artifact of MSLP reduction? How do we explain these disparate results? Jeglum et al. (2010) Seasonality Seasonality Jeglum et al. (2010) Jeglum et al. (2010) 3 1/10/18 Climate Summary • Mountains have a profound influence on storm tracks and cyclone statistics – Frequent lee cyclogenesis Dynamical Mechanisms – Frequent windward cyclolysis – Apparent “discontinuous” or “masked” storm tracks across barriers • Statistics vary depending on reanalysis characteristics (e.g., grid spacing), identification techniques, and season Orography and Cyclones Theoretical Models • Windward column compression contributes to acquisition of • View lee cyclogenesis as the result of the interaction of a synoptic-scale anticyclonic absolute vorticity trough or cyclone with a mountain ridge (e.g., Tibaldi et al. 1990; Bannon 1992) • Leeward column stretching contributes to acquisition of cyclonic • absolute vorticity Observed cyclone evolution results from superposition of – A growing baroclinic wave (a.k.a., the primary baroclinic wave) • These effects are “superimposed” on the large-scale forcing – Secondary topographic eddies produced by the interaction of the primary – Best case for lee cyclogenesis is when mountain-induced column baroclinic wave with the topography stretching occurs in concert with synoptic conditions favorable for cyclogenesis • The primary baroclinic wave would exist and grow even in the absence of • e.g., 500 mb CVA, local maximum in warm advection, condensational heating topography – Almost all cases of lee cyclogenesis are associated with a pre-existing • Secondary eddies alter the structure, growth, and track of the primary synoptic-scale trough or cyclone baroclinic wave Conceptual model QG Cyclone Evolution L L L L L L L L L L Topographic Eddies L L Primary Cyclone Contour intervals normalized by maximum pressure anomaly at each time Superposition of primary cyclone and topographic eddies results in “amoeba-like” movement of cyclone across a mountain ridge Bannon (1992) Bannon (1992) 4 1/10/18 QG Cyclone Evolution Class Discussion Cyclone Track L L L Mountain Profile Growth Rate Topo/NoTopo • Low deflected to northeast as it approaches mountains What happens as a primary cyclone traverses an isolated, • Growth rate slows and becomes negative (mountain is cyclolytic) “Alps-like” zonally oriented barrier? • Lee trough develops as cyclone impinges on mountain • Low appears to lee of mountains, equatorward of its original latitude, and is not Note: Barrier is highest in the middle traceable upstream (discontinuous progression) • Enhanced growth rate to the lee • Low briefly moves southeast before moving northeast Bannon (1992) Eady Model Solution Mechanisms Summary • Orographic cyclone evolution can be viewed as the superposition of a parent cyclone and topographic pressure perturbations generated by its interaction with orography • This superposition results in the “amoeba-like” movement of cyclones across the Rockies • For an isolated barrier like the Alps, growth rate is less strongly influenced, but Orographic Streamfunction Total Streamfunction cyclone structure is distorted • Upstream flow unperturbed • Advantage: the conceptualization can be generalized to a number of different • Pressure dipole is maximized near mountain flow conditions and mountain geometries • Low/high pressure centers split around mountain; poleward center strongest initially, then equatorward center becomes dominant • Caveats • Actual growth rates are much stronger than simulated by QG (Eady-type) models • Theory does not fully account for steep orography, diabatic effects, nonlinearities, etc. Speranza et al. (1985), Buzzi and Speranza (1986) Synoptic Characteristics Alberta Cyclones Tracks Lowest Central MSLP The central MSLP is ≤ 990 mb only 7% of the time Only 28% reach ≤ 992 mb [arbitrary “strong cyclone” threshold (Angel and Isard 1997)] Thomas and Martin (2007) 5 1/10/18 Composite Composite Hr -12 Hr 0 Hr 12 Hr 24 L L L L X X X X Frontal cyclone approaches coast Lee trough and warm anomaly Cessation of downslope flow Northern portion of lee trough Stationary lee trough develops due to amplify & broaden Ongoing deepening due to synoptic forcing moves eastward to cross barrier flow & vortex stretching Cyclogenesis as CVA moves into lee Lee trough broadens in scale as Southern portion remains fixed to Rockies air warmed by descent spreads eastward Palmén and Newton (1969), Thomas and Martin (2007), Steenburgh and Mass (1994) Palmén and Newton (1969), Thomas and Martin (2007), Steenburgh and Mass (1994) Case Study Case Study 0000 UTC 4 March 1986 1800 UTC 4 March 1986 0600 UTC 5 March 1986 1200 UTC 5 March 1986 L L L Confluent frontogenesis intensifies pre-lee-trough Cold-advection overruns lee trough, baroclinic zone that separates descended forming a thermal ridge resembling Pacific air from colder continental air a warm occlusion Resulting frontal structure is “non classical” Steenburgh and Mass (1994) Steenburgh and Mass (1994) European geography Alps Alpine Lee Cyclogenesis Pyrenees Dinaric Alps Gulf of Genoa Apennines Map: Wikipedia Commons 6 1/10/18 European Geography Climatology of the Mediteranean Terrain map courtesy: Ron Smith, Yale Univ. H H L H L L H Zurich Innsbruck Jungfrau (4368 m) Grossglockner (3,798 m) L L Wildspitze (3772 m) Naval European Meteorology and Oceanography Center Geneva Piz Bernina (4049m) Mt. Blanc Mt. Rosa (4634 m) Winter mean SLP (Reiter 1975) (4807 m) Milan Venice Turin • During winter (Jan), Mediterranean SSTs range from 12-20˚C, roughly 2-4˚C warmer than the mean air temperature • Mediterranean represents a time-averaged heat source during the cool season, with 100 km the surrounding region experiencing a temperate climate • Mean low pressure over the Mediterranean with an estimated amplitude of 5 mb Naval European Meteorology and Oceanography Center, Reiter (1975), Buzzi and Speranza (1983) Cyclone Climatology Cyclone Climatology Track Density (all cyclones) Cyclogenesis Pichler and Steinacker (1987) Vorderseiten type Überströmungs type High wind events only • Most are “Alpine Lee Cyclones” are shallow thermal and/or orographic High wind events only lows; • Buzzi and Speranza (1983) claim only 5-6/year develop into deep cyclones • Tibaldi et al. (1990) claim 10-20 moderate to strong events a year • Explosive deepening (e.g., Sanders and Gyakum 1980) is rare (Tibaldi et al. 1990) • Pichler and Steinacker (1987) describe two types of Alpine lee cyclones • Vorderseiten type, associated with southwesterly upper-level flow • Überströmungs type, associated with northwesterly upper-level flow • Both types associated with blocking and distortion of low-level cold front Nissen et al. (2010), ERA-40 (1.25ºx1.25º) MSLP Cyclones Oct–Mar 1957–2002 General Characteristics Classic View: Antecedent Stage • Most events are not purely orographic SFC: 1200 UTC 2 Apr 1973 500 mb: 1200 UTC 2 Apr 1973 • Cyclogenesis occurs occurs when: • An upper-level trough is upstream of the Alps • A low-level frontal system impinges on the Alps Jet? • An upper-level “forcing” (e.g., CVA, coherent tropopause disturbance, left exit region, etc.) moves over the northern Mediterranean • Alpine lee cyclones are typically smaller in scale than traditional midlatitude cyclones SFC 500 mb • Cyclone & upper-level trough/jet streak into central Europe • Can be accompanied by the Mistral (France), Foehn