Local Market Flows

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Local Market Flows LOCAL MARKET FLOWS BANCOLOMBIA ANALYSIS: COLOMBIAN EQUITY RESEARCH – Market Report Flows I March 3, 2017 Brokerage Firms, liquidity drivers in the market COLCAP Evolution Last 12 Months In February, brokerage firms were the most influential agent in the stock market, holding the Volume COLCAP 200 1500 largest share with 27.4%. Although their share as both buyers (27.2%) and sellers (27.6%) was 1450 significant, their net movement was sales, amounting to COP10,468mn. However, among the 1400 largest sellers of the month, brokerage firms ranked 5th. 150 1350 The selling force was mainly marked by ADR programs, which contributed COP85,625mn. Sales 1300 totaled COP131,690mn and Ecopetrol’s share was the most sold, likely influenced by the 100 1250 Points company's decline in proven crude reserves in 2016 (-13.5%). On the buyer side, the distrust for mn US$ 1200 ADRs in the domestic market is clear posting only COP46,060mn, 82% less than in January. 1150 50 1100 Pension funds keep ranking third in total market share, with 16.7% and net purchases for 1050 COP155,291mn, consolidating as the main net buyer on the market. The main purchases were 0 1000 made in the ICOLCAP index, Ecopetrol and Davivienda Preference. On the selling side, pension Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 funds offered mostly shares of Cementos Argos, Grupo Argos and ISA. It's important to note that Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg pension funds have been net buyers for sixteen consecutive months, proving their interest in continuing to participate in the local market. Most Traded Shares (USDmn) COLCAP falls back retreats after three months In January the COLCAP devalued 2.29% closing at 1,326 points; average trading volume stood at Ecopetrol 112 COP124,892mn, higher than January’s (COP113,603mn), but still below the level it closed at last ICOLCAP 79 year. Exito 79 In addition, it should be noted that Ecopetrol (COP322,585mn) has adjusted six consecutive PF Bancolombia 77 months as part of the most traded shares, as has Bancolombia (COP159,772.mn), which despite Corficol 63 having reduced trading volume vs. January (COP348,488mn), has adjusted four consecutive months in this list. On the other hand, 33% of the average trading volume was transactions over Bancolombia 55 COP1,000mn, 12% were MOC and ETF creations rose significantly from 4.6% in January to 12.7%. PF Aval 48 Cementos Argos 41 Investors worldwide were more concentrated in the US, resulting in lower trading volume at the ISA 37 local level. In addition, the market was affected by short-term issues such as the Odebrecht bribe Grupo Argos 36 case, Avianca’s announcement of a strategic alliance with United Airlines, among others. This Analysts month high volatility is expected, since most companies are reporting Q4 results. Name: Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo SourcePhone: Bancolombia,: (574) B6047048VC E-mail: [email protected] Name: Daniel Esteban Meneses Piedrahita Phone: (574) 6046496 Ext. 39602 E-mail: [email protected] Name: Erika Ivanna Baquero Jiménez November Transactions Phone: (571) 7463988 Ext. 37376 Buyers Sellers Net Participation (USDmn) E-mail: [email protected] Real Sector 72,4 95,1 (22,7) 9,6% Foreigners 212,7 177,2 35,5 22,4% Pension Funds 171,9 118,0 53,9 16,7% Brokerage Firms 236,2 239,8 (3,6) 27,4% Individuals 127,5 152,9 (25,4) 16,1% Others 11,9 19,5 (7,6) 1,8% Collective Portfolio 15,7 16,5 (0,9) 1,9% ADRs 16,0 45,7 (29,7) 3,5% Funds 4,9 4,4 0,5 0,5% Total 869,2 869,2 1 Local Market Flows March 3, 2017 Figure 1 – Market Participants Evolution Foreigners Brokerage firms Pension Funds Individuals Real Sector Others 100% 7,7% 90% 9,6% 80% 16,1% 70% 60% 16,7% 50% 40% 27,4% 30% 20% 22,4 10% % 0% Source: BVC, Bancolombia Figure 2 – Market Winners and Losers – February Table 1 – Accumulative Net Flows (USDmn) BVC, 7,7% USD mn 1M 3M YTD 12M Isa, 6,1% Pension Funds 54 167 96 935 Foreigners 36 153 71 474 Celsia, 4,2% Brokerage Firms (4) (14) (4) 38 Individuals (25) (47) (69) (344) Avianca, -9,1% Real Sector (23) (314) (124) (920) Conconcreto, -11,4% USD mn 2 years 3 years 5 years 10 years Pension Funds 1.023 429 675 3.663 Corficol, -14,9% Foreigners 950 1.371 2.819 3.889 Brokerage Firms 73 230 613 (674) Individuals (523) (833) (2.113) (4.511) COLCAP , -2,3% Real Sector (1.352) (1.472) (1.770) (3.869) -20,0% -15,0% -10,0% -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Table 2 – Most Bought and Sold Names by Pension Funds Table 3 - Most Bought and Sold Names by Foreginers (USDmn) (USDmn) Top Bought Top Bought 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Bancolombia 110.70 Bancolombia 169.50 Bancolombia 310.09 Bancolombia PF 38,39 Grupo Argos PF 85,68 Grupo Argos PF 88,25 Grupo Odinsa 34.26 Icolcap 73.66 Icolcap 192.19 Grupo Argos 25,03 Davivienda PF 66,88 Davivienda PF 86,37 Ecopetrol 32.71 Ecopetrol 43.11 Ecopetrol 114.41 Grupo Argos PF 21,28 Éxito 58,14 Éxito 72,10 Grupo Argos PF 14.82 Cementos Argos PF 37.85 Cementos Argos PF 93.58 Éxito 21,11 ISA 33,11 ISA 63,87 Top Sold Top Sold 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Bancolombia PF -91.21 Bancolombia PF -114.55 Bancolombia PF -86.53 Nutresa -8,45 Corficolombiana -55,84 Corficolombiana -32,43 Davivienda PF -30.00 Davivienda PF -55.74 Davivienda PF -84.15 Cémex -6,60 Nutresa -13,74 Nutresa -30,57 Éxito -7.72 Éxito -21.25 Éxito -59.70 Conconncreto -6,43 Grupo Sura PF -12,47 Grupo Sura PF -25,00 Grupo Sura -4.79 Grupo Sura -16.97 Grupo Sura -30.06 Canacol Energy -3,76 Avianca Holdings -8,34 Avianca Holdings -21,17 Fuente: BVC, Bancolombia Fuente: BVC, Bancolombia 1. 2 2 Local Market Flows March 3, 2017 Figure 3 – Foreigners’ Evolution (USDmn) Figure 4 – Pension Funds’ Evolution (USDmn) 200 200 150 150 100 100 54 50 50 36 0 USD mn 0 USD mn (50) (50) (100) (100) (150) (150) (200) Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Figure 5 – Real Sector’s Evolution (USDmn) Figure 6 – Individuals’ Evolution (USDmn) 100 150 50 100 0 50 (50) (23) 0 USD mn (100) USD mn (50) (25) (150) (200) (100) (250) (150) Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Figure 7 – Average Monthly Volume (USDmn) Figure 8 – Pension Funds’ Investment Portfolio Evolution - Dec 120% 2015 2016 2017 75 100% 4% 80% 28% 60 52 43.4 60% 21% 42 45 4% 40% US$ mn 30 20% 43% 0% 15 dic.-10 dic.-11 dic.-12 dic.-13 dic.-14 dic.-15 dic.-16 Domestic Fixed Income Foreing Fixed Income Domestic Equities 0 Foreing Equities Others Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Bloomberg, Bancolombia Source: Superfinanciera, Bancolombia 3 3 Local Market Flows March 3, 2017 Figure 9 – Foreigners’ Movements (USDmn)* Figure 10 – Pension Funds’ Movements (USDmn)* ICOLCAP 28,2 ECOPETROL 16,5 CEMARGOS 16,0 ECOPETROL 15,6 EXITO 13,4 PFDAVVNDA 11,8 GRUPOARGOS 11,8 BCOLOMBIA 9,9 NUTRESA (3,5) HCOLSEL (1,6) GRUPOSURA (3,8) ISA (4,5) CLH (6,8) GRUPOARGOS (12,0) PFDAVVNDA (14,5) CEMARGOS (13,7) (27) (12) 3 18 33 (55) (35) (15) 5 25 45 65 Million Million Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Figure 11 – Real Sector Movements(USDmn)* Figure 12 – Individuals’ Movements (USDmn)* ICOLCAP 10,6 BCOLOMBIA 6,5 PFDAVVNDA 1,0 CORFICOLCF 5,4 HCOLSEL 0,9 CLH 3,7 CLH 0,8 CNEC 1,3 CORFICOLCF (2,9) PFCEMARGOS (2,9) PFAVAL (4,1) ECOPETROL (4,2) EXITO (5,2) ISA (6,1) BCOLOMBIA (16,3) EXITO (14,0) (30) (15) 0 15 (25) (20) (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 Million Million Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Table 4 – AFP’s Equity Investment Limits per Fund (December. 16)** Investments in equity securities National Maximum AFP Fund type Total Local Gap Total Gap From national issuers From foreign issuers Limit Limit Low Risk 7.6% 11.1% 18.7% 15% 20% 7.4% 1.3% Protección Moderate 19.5% 23.3% 42.9% 35% 45% 15.5% 2.1% High Risk 28.3% 43.1% 71.4% 45% 70% 16.7% -1.4% Low Risk 5.3% 12.8% 18.1% 15% 20% 9.7% 1.9% Porvenir Moderate 17.7% 23.6% 41.3% 35% 45% 17.3% 3.7% High Risk 23.5% 47.7% 71.2% 45% 70% 21.5% -1.2% Low Risk 6.9% 10.2% 17.1% 15% 20% 8.1% 2.9% Old Mutual Moderate 20.5% 20.9% 41.4% 35% 45% 14.5% 3.6% High Risk 30.3% 37.5% 67.7% 45% 70% 14.7% 2.3% Low Risk 7.6% 11.5% 19.1% 15% 20% 7.4% 0.9% Colfondos Moderate 21.0% 24.7% 45.7% 35% 45% 14.0% -0.7% High Risk 30.0% 40.3% 70.3% 45% 70% 15.0% -0.3% Low Risk 6.8% 11.4% 18.3% 15% 20% 8.2% 1.7% System Moderate 19.7% 23.1% 42.8% 35% 45% 15.3% 2.2% High Risk 28.0% 42.1% 70.2% 45% 70% 17.0% -0.2% Source: Superfinanciera, Bancolombia *Values were calculated with the actual number of traded shares and the average trading price for the month ** December 2016, last period of public information released by Superfinanciera 4 4 Local Market Flows March 3, 2017 Main buyers and sellers by stock Table 5 - Main Agents Bancolombia Table 10 - Main Agents Nutresa 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M AFP 62,16 AFP 122,32 AFP 150,68 AFP 13,90 AFP 37,72 AFP 64,93 Foreigners 11,68 Foreigners 16,64 Foreigners 23,44 Real Sector -1,78 Individuals 0,86 Foreigners -2,44 Individuals 8,92 Individuals 10,17 Individuals 6,23 Individuals -2,36 Foreigners -13,74 Individuals -16,63 Real Sector -100,25 Real Sector -191,12 Real Sector -260,55 Foreigners -8,45 Real Sector -32,04 Real Sector -54,96 Table 6 - Main Agents Ecopetrol Table 11 - Main Agents Icolcap 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Foreigners 20,77 Foreigners 26,57 Foreigners 32,35 Real Sector 22,78 AFP 71,47 AFP 311,95 AFP 13,30 AFP 23,37 Real Sector -4,72 Foreigners -0,07
Recommended publications
  • Avianca Holdings
    En búsqueda de valor para especuladores Septiembre 4, 2018 En búsqueda de valor para especuladores Algunas veces, la reacción del mercado va en contra del análisis fundamental, Conconcreto vs. COLCAP (Base 100 LTM) creando oportunidades para los inversionistas que tienen una visión a largo plazo y 120 una alta tolerancia al riesgo que les ayude a soportar las volatilidades, mientras los 110 fundamentales regresan y los precios de mercado buscan su valor justo. 100 90 Ese es el caso de estas tres acciones: Conconcreto, Cemex Latam Holdings y 80 Avianca. Tres especies que se han visto afectadas durante los últimos meses, al ver 70 60 que sus precios de mercado caer más de 30% hasta la fecha, a mínimos históricos 50 en el caso de las dos primeras, pero donde la valoración, a pesar de los riesgos 40 asociados con cada activo, está por encima de los precios actuales de mercado. 30 sep.-17 nov.-17 ene.-18 mar.-18 may.-18 jul.-18 sep.-18 Vale la pena tener en cuenta que este no es un informe de valoración COLCAP Conconcreto fundamental. Nuestra intención es ofrecer un análisis de aproximación de valor CLH vs. COLCAP (Base 100 LTM) en escenarios ácidos, con el objetivo de retar los precios de mercado actuales. 110 Por supuesto, es posible que los precios presenten caídas adicionales, ya que esas tres compañías enfrentan problemas de gobierno corporativo o están en medio de 100 decisiones administrativas clave que podrían afectar el desempeño de sus acciones 90 en el corto plazo. 80 Conconcreto – precios de mercado asumen que la división de construcción vale 0.
    [Show full text]
  • Presentación De Powerpoint
    PRESENTACIÓN SEMANAL 5 de abril de 2021 PRINCIPALES CONCLUSIONES EN ESTE REPORTE Contexto En marzo, se crearon 916 mil nóminas no agrícolas en Estados Unidos, por encima de la expectativa del mercado. La dinámica del mercado laboral en este periodo se vio favorecida por el avance en la vacunación y la aprobación del paquete fiscal por USD 1.9 billones. En todo caso, frente a febrero del año 2020, permanece una destrucción de 8.4 millones de puestos de trabajo. El Banco Mundial revisó al alza sus perspectivas de crecimiento para América Latina y el Caribe, desde -7.9% y 4% en 2020 y 2021, hasta -6.7% y 4.4%, respectivamente. Para Colombia, revisó su pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 hasta 5%, desde 4.9%, una cifra consistente con la que recientemente publicó el Ministerio de Hacienda en su Plan Financiero. En Colombia, la tasa de desempleo en el total nacional fue de 15.9% en febrero. Frente a febrero de 2020, permanece una destrucción de 1.18 millones de puestos de trabajo. En sus minutas de la reunión del 26 de marzo, los codirectores insistieron en la necesidad de que se apruebe por parte del congreso un programa de ajuste fiscal que apunte a garantizar la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas que le permita al Banco de la República mantener una política monetaria expansionista sin comprometer la estabilidad macroeconómica. Reconocieron además el ajuste en las condiciones financieras derivado de las desvalorizaciones recientes en los Tesoros americanos, aunque insistieron en que aún prevalece un ambiente de alta liquidez global.
    [Show full text]
  • Local Equity
    Local Equity ANALYSIS BANCOLOMBIA: EQUITY RESEARCH – Special Report Stock Universe I June 28, 2017 2H17 Investment Strategies: What’s Left for the Stock Market when almost Everything Seems Expensive? Near the end of the first half, the stock market accumulated an upside of 7.4%, partially reducing 2H17 Top Picks – Equity the gap maintained by other Latin American indices on Colombia. Such increase largely captures Target the positive but moderate recovery sense that the Colcap forecast updates made during 1Q17 Company Recommendation Upsie Weight Price and 2Q17 had brought. By the beginning of the second half the models are refreshed again, Grupo Éxito Buy 21,700 40.9% 100% seeking to incorporate new information and changes in the conditions of the economy, the market Source: Grupo Bancolombia and the perception of agents. With an upward revision of ~2%, up to 1,502 points, the local stock market index offers a 3.5% upside over the next six months, extending the dynamics observed since the beginning of 2016. Evolution Colcap vs. Top Picks 1H17 Despite the positive omens this forecast may bring, the absence of clear value catalysts highlights 125 the difficulties that the Colcap will have to face in order to cover the almost 52 points left to reach fair value. The main challenges facing the local equity market’s in 2H17 are: i) a less dynamic 115 economic recovery, ii) the downward bias in the oil market, iii) the delay in the execution of 4G 105 projects, and iv) the dependence on foreign flows. 95 By contrast the favorable conditions
    [Show full text]
  • MSCI Small Cap Indexes List of Additions/Deletions
    Geneva, May 12, 2020 MSCI GLOBAL SMALL CAP INDEXES The following are changes in constituents for the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes which will take place as of the close of May 29, 2020. SUMMARY PER COUNTRY and PER REGION: Nb of Nb of Securities Securities Region Country Added Deleted Asia Pacific PAKISTAN 2 2 AUSTRALIA 14 13 JAPAN 42 37 HONG KONG 5 8 SINGAPORE 9 2 NEW ZEALAND 3 3 MALAYSIA 7 10 INDONESIA 10 14 PHILIPPINES 3 3 TAIWAN 13 3 KOREA 22 46 THAILAND 1 16 INDIA 18 54 CHINA 36 33 Nb of Nb of Securities Securities Region Country Added Deleted Europe, Middle East and Africa GREECE 4 0 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES1 3 QATAR 3 1 BELGIUM 0 2 SWITZERLAND 3 5 DENMARK 2 2 SPAIN 2 2 FRANCE 4 5 GERMANY 2 6 NETHERLANDS 2 2 ITALY 2 5 NORWAY 4 11 SWEDEN 13 9 UNITED KINGDOM 19 28 FINLAND 3 0 TURKEY 1 1 IRELAND 3 0 ISRAEL 7 1 SOUTH AFRICA 8 21 POLAND 5 2 CZECH REPUBLIC 0 1 RUSSIA 1 2 EGYPT 2 2 SAUDI ARABIA 2 1 Nb of Nb of Securities Securities Region Country Added Deleted Americas USA 133 134 CANADA 17 36 MEXICO 2 9 CHILE 1 2 BRAZIL 8 4 COLOMBIA 1 2 ARGENTINA 2 1 Page 1 MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes - May 12, 2020 © MSCI 2020, All rights reserved ASIA PACIFIC MSCI PAKISTAN INDEX Additions Deletions MARI PETROLEUM NISHAT MILLS PAKISTAN PETROLEUM SUI NORTH GAS PIPELINES MSCI AUSTRALIA INDEX Additions Deletions ALUMINA AFTERPAY AUB GROUP AMA GROUP BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK ARDENT LEISURE GROUP BORAL EVOLUTION MINING CHALLENGER FLEXIGROUP CHAMPION IRON GALAXY RESOURCES DATA 3 MYER HOLDINGS FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GRP NAVIGATOR GLOBAL INV HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS NORTHERN
    [Show full text]
  • Actualización Conjunta De Nuestro Universo De Cobertura
    Actualización conjunta de nuestro universo de cobertura Mercado accionario Análisis fundamental en medio de la pandemia colombiano Dirección de Investigaciones Económicas, Sectoriales y de Mercados Julio de 2020 Análisis fundamental en medio de la pandemia 47% sobreponderar, 5% Neutral, 37% subponderar y 11% Bajo Revisión La incertidumbre y el miedo hacen una mezcla explosiva para los mercados financieros, generando descalces de valor como los que, en nuestra opinión, vivimos en la actualidad. Esta sobrerreacción a las noticias económicas negativas en medio del pánico (covid-19) es normal en el corto plazo, abriendo oportunidades de inversión desde un punto de vista fundamental para portafolios que quieran apostarle a la recuperación económica. Actualizamos nuestro universo de cobertura realizando diferentes ajustes a nuestra metodología de valoración, entre las que destacamos ajustes en la tasa de descuento, expectativas de crecimiento en los diferentes sectores económicos, al igual que nuevas proyecciones macroeconómicas para Colombia y los países de la región. Con base en lo anterior, concluimos que el mercado colombiano presenta un atractivo descuento fundamental, con un índice COLCAP que presenta un potencial de valorización del 38,9%. Es importante tener presente que ninguna compañía nos arroja un potencial de valorización negativo, en otras palabras, la recomendación de Subponderar obedece a que dichos activos rentarán un 5% menos que la expectativa fundamental del índice Colcap Nunca antes el trabajo de un analista fundamental había sido tan complejo, pues las compañías de cara a la coyuntura han dejado de dar su visión de expectativa de resultados para 2020, lo que incrementa el nivel de riesgo de nuestras recomendaciones.
    [Show full text]
  • 3Q 2013 Passenger Business Highlights
    4Q 2016 Earnings Results Presentation B787 Dreamliner The present document consolidates information from Avianca Holdings SA and its subsidiaries, including unaudited financial figures, operational managerial indicators, financial indicators and managerial projections of future performance, in line with Avianca Holdings SA and its subsidiaries’ business plans. References to future behaviors are indicative and do not constitute a guarantee of compliance by the Company, its shareholders or directors. Unaudited accounting and financial information and projections presented in this document are based on internal data and calculations made by the Company, which may be subject to changes or adjustments. Any change in the current economic conditions, the aviation industry, fuel prices, international markets and external events, among others, may affect the ongoing business results and future projections. Avianca Holdings S.A. herein after Avianca Holdings and its subsidiaries warn investors and potential investors that future projections are not a guarantee of performance and that actual results may differ materially. Every investor or potential investor will be responsible for investment decisions taken or not taken as a result of his or her assessment of the information contained herein. Avianca Holdings S.A. is not responsible for any third parties’ content. Avianca Holdings may make changes and updates to the information contained herein. The information, tables and logos contained in this presentation may not be reproduced without the consent
    [Show full text]
  • A Potential Driver for Colombian Growth
    Venezuela - A Free Option for Colombian Corporate Growth April 29, 2019 Venezuela – A Free Option for Colombian Corporate Growth Venezuela was once the second most important destination of Colombian exports after the United States, representing around 17% of our exports in 2007-2008. However, the economic situation of our neighbor led Colombian companies to stop trading, given the hard times for currency repatriation and payments. Since January 2019, this country is facing a political turmoil after Juan Guaidó, president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, proclaimed himself interim president. The political uncertainty of the neighboring country peaked after dozens of countries backed Guiadó as interim president of Venezuela, including the US and the European Union, opening the door for a political transition that leads us to deeply analyze the effects for the Colombian market. A Venezuela turnaround story will be a watershed moment for the Colombian economy. Colombian GDP could be boosted by 0.8% per year, without considering the potential expansion of Colombian corporations. Most sectors would benefit, and many companies listed on the BVC would have a growth free option if the Venezuelan economy recovers. On this front, Grupo Nutresa, Avianca Holdings, Fabricato, Enka, and Cementos Argos would be on the positive side of the equation since they had a direct or indirect operation in Venezuela. This doesn’t mean they are the only ones: infrastructure, utilities, textiles, food, and retail could take the lead to recover the industrial production of a country which vastly lacks investment. Additionally, financial institutions would benefit from a potential growth in loans to companies that would expand its footprint to Venezuela.
    [Show full text]
  • Avianca Holdings Eficiencia Antes Que Crecimiento Sobreponderar Especulativo Transporte COP3.320 20 De Junio De 2019 Eficiencia Antes Que Crecimiento
    Avianca Holdings Eficiencia antes que crecimiento Sobreponderar Especulativo Transporte COP3.320 20 de junio de 2019 Eficiencia antes que crecimiento Actualizamos nuestra cobertura de Avianca Holdings, acorde a la nueva estrategia Avianca corporativa que dejó de un lado la expansión de flota y rutas para concentrarse en Precio Objetivo (COP) 3.320 eficiencias de flota y búsqueda de rutas rentables. De esta forma, al reducir la flota Precio de cierre (COP) 1.500 de aeronaves de la compañía de 190 en 2018 a 168 a 2020, utilizar supuestos conservadores para la proyección de yields, incorporar mayor CAPEX, una mejora Potencial de Valorización 121% moderada de costos, y un mayor costo de refinanciamiento, nuestro precio objetivo disminuye 32% pasando de COP4,910/acción a COP3.320/acción para diciembre 2019, lo que implica un potencial de valorización de 121%. Rango 52 semanas (COP) 1.155 – 2.645 Capitalización bursátil En nuestra opinión, inclusive bajo supuestos conservadores, Avianca tendría una 1.495.481 (COPmn) disponibilidad para remplazar deuda de USD620mn, superior al vencimiento del bono internacional por USD550mn. No obstante, existen restricciones por Acciones en circulación (mn) 336,2 covenants que dificultarían la inmediatez de esta transacción, por lo que esperamos Flotante (mn) 171,4 que, de lograrse, se de alrededor de septiembre de 2019. Como conclusión, dado Volumen promedio diario que en nuestras estimaciones la compañía cuenta con la capacidad de refinanciar 12m (COPmn) 832,0 pero las presiones de corto plazo son significativas, reiteramos nuestra Retorno del dividendo 3,6% recomendación de SOBREPONDERAR ESPECULATIVO para inversionistas con alta Retorno esperado 121,3% tolerancia al riesgo.
    [Show full text]
  • Proyecto De Grado
    ESTUDIO EXPLORATORIO DE LA INFORMACIÓN DIVULGADA POR LAS EMPRESAS DEL COLCAP 2016 AUTOR HELEN DANIELA GUERRERO GONZÁLEZ DIRECTOR DEL PROYECTO STELLA MALDONADO GARCÍA (PhD) UNIVERSIDAD ICESI FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ADMINISTRATIVAS Y ECONÓMICAS CONTADURÍA PÚBLICA Y FINANZAS INTERNACIONES SANTIAGO DE CALI 2017 1 Tabla de contenido 0. INTRODUCCIÓN .......................................................................................... 6 1. MARCO CONCEPTUAL ............................................................................. 10 1.1. CONTEXTO DE LA RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL CORPORATIVA ....................... 10 1.2. LA RSC Y LA INFORMACIÓN SOCIAL .......................................................... 11 1.3. LA TRANSPARENCIA INFORMATIVA Y SU RELACIÓN CON LA RSC Y LA IS ...... 12 1.4. REVISIÓN DE LA LITERATURA .................................................................... 14 2. OBJETIVOS DE ESTUDIO Y METODOLOGÍA DE ANÁLISIS .................. 17 2.1. OBJETIVOS ............................................................................................. 17 2.1.1. Objetivos específicos .................................................................................17 2.2. METODOLOGÍA ....................................................................................... 17 2.2.1. Muestra .....................................................................................................18 2.2.2. Ámbito geográfico ......................................................................................18 2.2.3. Documento fuente .....................................................................................19
    [Show full text]
  • Press Release
    Press release EEB WAS INCLUDED BY THIRD YEAR IN A ROW IN THE DOW JONES SUSTAINABILITY INDEX - DJSI EEB, head of Grupo Energía de Bogotá, went up five points over the previous year, ranking between the best companies around the world in sustainability. Dow Jones is the most recognized sustainability index at an international level. It analyses the performance of companies that are leaders in social, economic and environmental aspects. Bogota, September 11 2014. EEB, head of Grupo Energía de Bogotá -GEB- is pleased to report that it was included today for third year in a row, in the DOW JONES SUSTAINABILITY INDEX -DJSI- in emerging markets. In this opportunity, EEB went up five points over the previous year, going from 66 points in 2013 to 71 points in 2014. This result locates the company between the best companies of the world in social, economic and environmental aspects. Dow Jones is the most recognized sustainability index at an international level and constitutes a reference point for those investors who integrate sustainability guidelines within their investment portfolios drivers. DJSI also provides an effective engagement platform for companies wanting to adopt best practices in sustainability. EEB was included for the first time in this index in 2012 and since then has been included again year after year. To be included or ratified in this index, companies must continuously increase their efforts and initiatives in sustainability for the benefit of all of their stakeholders. Regarding this fact, Sandra Stella Fonseca Arenas, EEB’s CEO, said that “this acknowledgement shows that we are developing our business at the level of the best world practices.
    [Show full text]
  • FTSE Global Equity Index Series Latin America March 2019 Semi-Annual Review © FTSE International Limited 2019
    FTSE Global Equity Index Series Latin America March 2019 Semi-Annual Review © FTSE International Limited 2019. All Rights Reserved Large Cap Inclusions SEDOL Company Name Country Reason 2308445 Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A. Pref B Brazil Mid Cap to Large Cap 2311120 Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A. Ord Brazil Mid Cap to Large Cap BYZ6D56 IRB Brasil Resseguros SA Brazil Mid Cap to Large Cap 2683777 Petrobras Distribuidora SA Brazil Mid Cap to Large Cap Exclusions SEDOL Company Name Country Reason BYM4063 Becle SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap B671GT8 Fibra Uno Administracion SA de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap 2392545 Gruma SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap 2448200 Industrias Penoles SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap BJ0K6Z9 Klabin SA Brazil Large Cap to Mid Cap B7FQV64 Raia Drogasil SA Brazil Large Cap to Mid Cap Mid Cap Inclusions SEDOL Company Name Country Reason BYM4063 Becle SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap BGSH2S6 CVC Brasil Operadora e Agencia de Viagens SA Brazil Small Cap to Mid Cap B671GT8 Fibra Uno Administracion SA de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap 2392545 Gruma SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap 2448200 Industrias Penoles SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap BJ0K6Z9 Klabin SA Brazil Large Cap to Mid Cap B7FQV64 Raia Drogasil SA Brazil Large Cap to Mid Cap Exclusions SEDOL Company Name Country Reason BH0P3N7 Aleatica SAB de CV Mexico Failed Liquidity B88KB04 CEMEX Latam Holdings SA Colombia Mid Cap to Small Cap 2308445 Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A.
    [Show full text]
  • Avianca Holdings
    A Real Bargain for Risky Investors Sepember 4, 2018 A Real Bargain for Risky Investors Some times, market reaction goes against fundamental analysis, creating opportunities for investors that have a long-term view and high risk tolerance to support volatilities and market turmoil, while fundamentals return, and market Conconcreto vs. COLCAP (Base 100 LTM) prices search for their fair value. 120 110 This is the case of these three stocks: Conconcreto, Cemex Latam Holdings, and 100 Avianca. Three stocks that have come under fire during the last months, seeing 90 their market prices falling more than 30% YTD, to historical lows in the case of the 80 first two, but where valuation, despite the risks associated with each asset, lies way 70 60 above current market prices. 50 40 It’s worth bearing in mind that we are not providing a full valuation approach in 30 this report. Our intention is to offer a value assessment under acid scenarios for sep.-17 nov.-17 ene.-18 mar.-18 may.-18 jul.-18 sep.-18 COLCAP Conconcreto each company, challenging the current market prices vs. their fundamental value. Of course, further price declines are possible, as those three companies are facing CLH vs. COLCAP (Base 100 LTM) corporate governance issues or are in the middle of key management decisions that 110 could affect the performance of their shares in the short term. 100 Conconcreto – Market Prices Assume There’s Zero Value in Construction Division 90 Assigning zero value to the construction division, zero value to the equity 80 contribution to the Via 40 Express concession project, and the potential maximum 70 fines that could be imposed against Conconcreto and Industrial Conconcreto for 60 COP78,124mn per company (total of COP156,248mn on a consolidated basis), the 50 relative valuation of Conconcreto would rise to COP416 per share, in line with sep.-17 nov.-17 ene.-18 mar.-18 may.-18 jul.-18 sep.-18 COLCAP CLH market prices, which means, that market players believe the construction division is gone.
    [Show full text]