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LOCAL MARKET FLOWS BANCOLOMBIA ANALYSIS: COLOMBIAN EQUITY RESEARCH – Market Report Flows I March 3, 2017 Brokerage Firms, liquidity drivers in the market COLCAP Evolution Last 12 Months In February, brokerage firms were the most influential agent in the stock market, holding the Volume COLCAP 200 1500 largest share with 27.4%. Although their share as both buyers (27.2%) and sellers (27.6%) was 1450 significant, their net movement was sales, amounting to COP10,468mn. However, among the 1400 largest sellers of the month, brokerage firms ranked 5th. 150 1350 The selling force was mainly marked by ADR programs, which contributed COP85,625mn. Sales 1300 totaled COP131,690mn and Ecopetrol’s share was the most sold, likely influenced by the 100 1250 Points company's decline in proven crude reserves in 2016 (-13.5%). On the buyer side, the distrust for mn US$ 1200 ADRs in the domestic market is clear posting only COP46,060mn, 82% less than in January. 1150 50 1100 Pension funds keep ranking third in total market share, with 16.7% and net purchases for 1050 COP155,291mn, consolidating as the main net buyer on the market. The main purchases were 0 1000 made in the ICOLCAP index, Ecopetrol and Davivienda Preference. On the selling side, pension Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 funds offered mostly shares of Cementos Argos, Grupo Argos and ISA. It's important to note that Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg pension funds have been net buyers for sixteen consecutive months, proving their interest in continuing to participate in the local market. Most Traded Shares (USDmn) COLCAP falls back retreats after three months In January the COLCAP devalued 2.29% closing at 1,326 points; average trading volume stood at Ecopetrol 112 COP124,892mn, higher than January’s (COP113,603mn), but still below the level it closed at last ICOLCAP 79 year. Exito 79 In addition, it should be noted that Ecopetrol (COP322,585mn) has adjusted six consecutive PF Bancolombia 77 months as part of the most traded shares, as has Bancolombia (COP159,772.mn), which despite Corficol 63 having reduced trading volume vs. January (COP348,488mn), has adjusted four consecutive months in this list. On the other hand, 33% of the average trading volume was transactions over Bancolombia 55 COP1,000mn, 12% were MOC and ETF creations rose significantly from 4.6% in January to 12.7%. PF Aval 48 Cementos Argos 41 Investors worldwide were more concentrated in the US, resulting in lower trading volume at the ISA 37 local level. In addition, the market was affected by short-term issues such as the Odebrecht bribe Grupo Argos 36 case, Avianca’s announcement of a strategic alliance with United Airlines, among others. This Analysts month high volatility is expected, since most companies are reporting Q4 results. Name: Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo SourcePhone: Bancolombia,: (574) B6047048VC E-mail: [email protected] Name: Daniel Esteban Meneses Piedrahita Phone: (574) 6046496 Ext. 39602 E-mail: [email protected] Name: Erika Ivanna Baquero Jiménez November Transactions Phone: (571) 7463988 Ext. 37376 Buyers Sellers Net Participation (USDmn) E-mail: [email protected] Real Sector 72,4 95,1 (22,7) 9,6% Foreigners 212,7 177,2 35,5 22,4% Pension Funds 171,9 118,0 53,9 16,7% Brokerage Firms 236,2 239,8 (3,6) 27,4% Individuals 127,5 152,9 (25,4) 16,1% Others 11,9 19,5 (7,6) 1,8% Collective Portfolio 15,7 16,5 (0,9) 1,9% ADRs 16,0 45,7 (29,7) 3,5% Funds 4,9 4,4 0,5 0,5% Total 869,2 869,2 1 Local Market Flows March 3, 2017 Figure 1 – Market Participants Evolution Foreigners Brokerage firms Pension Funds Individuals Real Sector Others 100% 7,7% 90% 9,6% 80% 16,1% 70% 60% 16,7% 50% 40% 27,4% 30% 20% 22,4 10% % 0% Source: BVC, Bancolombia Figure 2 – Market Winners and Losers – February Table 1 – Accumulative Net Flows (USDmn) BVC, 7,7% USD mn 1M 3M YTD 12M Isa, 6,1% Pension Funds 54 167 96 935 Foreigners 36 153 71 474 Celsia, 4,2% Brokerage Firms (4) (14) (4) 38 Individuals (25) (47) (69) (344) Avianca, -9,1% Real Sector (23) (314) (124) (920) Conconcreto, -11,4% USD mn 2 years 3 years 5 years 10 years Pension Funds 1.023 429 675 3.663 Corficol, -14,9% Foreigners 950 1.371 2.819 3.889 Brokerage Firms 73 230 613 (674) Individuals (523) (833) (2.113) (4.511) COLCAP , -2,3% Real Sector (1.352) (1.472) (1.770) (3.869) -20,0% -15,0% -10,0% -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Table 2 – Most Bought and Sold Names by Pension Funds Table 3 - Most Bought and Sold Names by Foreginers (USDmn) (USDmn) Top Bought Top Bought 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Bancolombia 110.70 Bancolombia 169.50 Bancolombia 310.09 Bancolombia PF 38,39 Grupo Argos PF 85,68 Grupo Argos PF 88,25 Grupo Odinsa 34.26 Icolcap 73.66 Icolcap 192.19 Grupo Argos 25,03 Davivienda PF 66,88 Davivienda PF 86,37 Ecopetrol 32.71 Ecopetrol 43.11 Ecopetrol 114.41 Grupo Argos PF 21,28 Éxito 58,14 Éxito 72,10 Grupo Argos PF 14.82 Cementos Argos PF 37.85 Cementos Argos PF 93.58 Éxito 21,11 ISA 33,11 ISA 63,87 Top Sold Top Sold 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Bancolombia PF -91.21 Bancolombia PF -114.55 Bancolombia PF -86.53 Nutresa -8,45 Corficolombiana -55,84 Corficolombiana -32,43 Davivienda PF -30.00 Davivienda PF -55.74 Davivienda PF -84.15 Cémex -6,60 Nutresa -13,74 Nutresa -30,57 Éxito -7.72 Éxito -21.25 Éxito -59.70 Conconncreto -6,43 Grupo Sura PF -12,47 Grupo Sura PF -25,00 Grupo Sura -4.79 Grupo Sura -16.97 Grupo Sura -30.06 Canacol Energy -3,76 Avianca Holdings -8,34 Avianca Holdings -21,17 Fuente: BVC, Bancolombia Fuente: BVC, Bancolombia 1. 2 2 Local Market Flows March 3, 2017 Figure 3 – Foreigners’ Evolution (USDmn) Figure 4 – Pension Funds’ Evolution (USDmn) 200 200 150 150 100 100 54 50 50 36 0 USD mn 0 USD mn (50) (50) (100) (100) (150) (150) (200) Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Figure 5 – Real Sector’s Evolution (USDmn) Figure 6 – Individuals’ Evolution (USDmn) 100 150 50 100 0 50 (50) (23) 0 USD mn (100) USD mn (50) (25) (150) (200) (100) (250) (150) Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Figure 7 – Average Monthly Volume (USDmn) Figure 8 – Pension Funds’ Investment Portfolio Evolution - Dec 120% 2015 2016 2017 75 100% 4% 80% 28% 60 52 43.4 60% 21% 42 45 4% 40% US$ mn 30 20% 43% 0% 15 dic.-10 dic.-11 dic.-12 dic.-13 dic.-14 dic.-15 dic.-16 Domestic Fixed Income Foreing Fixed Income Domestic Equities 0 Foreing Equities Others Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Bloomberg, Bancolombia Source: Superfinanciera, Bancolombia 3 3 Local Market Flows March 3, 2017 Figure 9 – Foreigners’ Movements (USDmn)* Figure 10 – Pension Funds’ Movements (USDmn)* ICOLCAP 28,2 ECOPETROL 16,5 CEMARGOS 16,0 ECOPETROL 15,6 EXITO 13,4 PFDAVVNDA 11,8 GRUPOARGOS 11,8 BCOLOMBIA 9,9 NUTRESA (3,5) HCOLSEL (1,6) GRUPOSURA (3,8) ISA (4,5) CLH (6,8) GRUPOARGOS (12,0) PFDAVVNDA (14,5) CEMARGOS (13,7) (27) (12) 3 18 33 (55) (35) (15) 5 25 45 65 Million Million Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Figure 11 – Real Sector Movements(USDmn)* Figure 12 – Individuals’ Movements (USDmn)* ICOLCAP 10,6 BCOLOMBIA 6,5 PFDAVVNDA 1,0 CORFICOLCF 5,4 HCOLSEL 0,9 CLH 3,7 CLH 0,8 CNEC 1,3 CORFICOLCF (2,9) PFCEMARGOS (2,9) PFAVAL (4,1) ECOPETROL (4,2) EXITO (5,2) ISA (6,1) BCOLOMBIA (16,3) EXITO (14,0) (30) (15) 0 15 (25) (20) (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 Million Million Source: BVC, Bancolombia Source: BVC, Bancolombia Table 4 – AFP’s Equity Investment Limits per Fund (December. 16)** Investments in equity securities National Maximum AFP Fund type Total Local Gap Total Gap From national issuers From foreign issuers Limit Limit Low Risk 7.6% 11.1% 18.7% 15% 20% 7.4% 1.3% Protección Moderate 19.5% 23.3% 42.9% 35% 45% 15.5% 2.1% High Risk 28.3% 43.1% 71.4% 45% 70% 16.7% -1.4% Low Risk 5.3% 12.8% 18.1% 15% 20% 9.7% 1.9% Porvenir Moderate 17.7% 23.6% 41.3% 35% 45% 17.3% 3.7% High Risk 23.5% 47.7% 71.2% 45% 70% 21.5% -1.2% Low Risk 6.9% 10.2% 17.1% 15% 20% 8.1% 2.9% Old Mutual Moderate 20.5% 20.9% 41.4% 35% 45% 14.5% 3.6% High Risk 30.3% 37.5% 67.7% 45% 70% 14.7% 2.3% Low Risk 7.6% 11.5% 19.1% 15% 20% 7.4% 0.9% Colfondos Moderate 21.0% 24.7% 45.7% 35% 45% 14.0% -0.7% High Risk 30.0% 40.3% 70.3% 45% 70% 15.0% -0.3% Low Risk 6.8% 11.4% 18.3% 15% 20% 8.2% 1.7% System Moderate 19.7% 23.1% 42.8% 35% 45% 15.3% 2.2% High Risk 28.0% 42.1% 70.2% 45% 70% 17.0% -0.2% Source: Superfinanciera, Bancolombia *Values were calculated with the actual number of traded shares and the average trading price for the month ** December 2016, last period of public information released by Superfinanciera 4 4 Local Market Flows March 3, 2017 Main buyers and sellers by stock Table 5 - Main Agents Bancolombia Table 10 - Main Agents Nutresa 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M AFP 62,16 AFP 122,32 AFP 150,68 AFP 13,90 AFP 37,72 AFP 64,93 Foreigners 11,68 Foreigners 16,64 Foreigners 23,44 Real Sector -1,78 Individuals 0,86 Foreigners -2,44 Individuals 8,92 Individuals 10,17 Individuals 6,23 Individuals -2,36 Foreigners -13,74 Individuals -16,63 Real Sector -100,25 Real Sector -191,12 Real Sector -260,55 Foreigners -8,45 Real Sector -32,04 Real Sector -54,96 Table 6 - Main Agents Ecopetrol Table 11 - Main Agents Icolcap 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Foreigners 20,77 Foreigners 26,57 Foreigners 32,35 Real Sector 22,78 AFP 71,47 AFP 311,95 AFP 13,30 AFP 23,37 Real Sector -4,72 Foreigners -0,07
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    FTSE Global Equity Index Series Latin America March 2019 Semi-Annual Review © FTSE International Limited 2019. All Rights Reserved Large Cap Inclusions SEDOL Company Name Country Reason 2308445 Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A. Pref B Brazil Mid Cap to Large Cap 2311120 Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A. Ord Brazil Mid Cap to Large Cap BYZ6D56 IRB Brasil Resseguros SA Brazil Mid Cap to Large Cap 2683777 Petrobras Distribuidora SA Brazil Mid Cap to Large Cap Exclusions SEDOL Company Name Country Reason BYM4063 Becle SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap B671GT8 Fibra Uno Administracion SA de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap 2392545 Gruma SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap 2448200 Industrias Penoles SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap BJ0K6Z9 Klabin SA Brazil Large Cap to Mid Cap B7FQV64 Raia Drogasil SA Brazil Large Cap to Mid Cap Mid Cap Inclusions SEDOL Company Name Country Reason BYM4063 Becle SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap BGSH2S6 CVC Brasil Operadora e Agencia de Viagens SA Brazil Small Cap to Mid Cap B671GT8 Fibra Uno Administracion SA de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap 2392545 Gruma SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap 2448200 Industrias Penoles SAB de CV Mexico Large Cap to Mid Cap BJ0K6Z9 Klabin SA Brazil Large Cap to Mid Cap B7FQV64 Raia Drogasil SA Brazil Large Cap to Mid Cap Exclusions SEDOL Company Name Country Reason BH0P3N7 Aleatica SAB de CV Mexico Failed Liquidity B88KB04 CEMEX Latam Holdings SA Colombia Mid Cap to Small Cap 2308445 Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A.
  • Avianca Holdings

    Avianca Holdings

    A Real Bargain for Risky Investors Sepember 4, 2018 A Real Bargain for Risky Investors Some times, market reaction goes against fundamental analysis, creating opportunities for investors that have a long-term view and high risk tolerance to support volatilities and market turmoil, while fundamentals return, and market Conconcreto vs. COLCAP (Base 100 LTM) prices search for their fair value. 120 110 This is the case of these three stocks: Conconcreto, Cemex Latam Holdings, and 100 Avianca. Three stocks that have come under fire during the last months, seeing 90 their market prices falling more than 30% YTD, to historical lows in the case of the 80 first two, but where valuation, despite the risks associated with each asset, lies way 70 60 above current market prices. 50 40 It’s worth bearing in mind that we are not providing a full valuation approach in 30 this report. Our intention is to offer a value assessment under acid scenarios for sep.-17 nov.-17 ene.-18 mar.-18 may.-18 jul.-18 sep.-18 COLCAP Conconcreto each company, challenging the current market prices vs. their fundamental value. Of course, further price declines are possible, as those three companies are facing CLH vs. COLCAP (Base 100 LTM) corporate governance issues or are in the middle of key management decisions that 110 could affect the performance of their shares in the short term. 100 Conconcreto – Market Prices Assume There’s Zero Value in Construction Division 90 Assigning zero value to the construction division, zero value to the equity 80 contribution to the Via 40 Express concession project, and the potential maximum 70 fines that could be imposed against Conconcreto and Industrial Conconcreto for 60 COP78,124mn per company (total of COP156,248mn on a consolidated basis), the 50 relative valuation of Conconcreto would rise to COP416 per share, in line with sep.-17 nov.-17 ene.-18 mar.-18 may.-18 jul.-18 sep.-18 COLCAP CLH market prices, which means, that market players believe the construction division is gone.