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Avianca Holdings A Real Bargain for Risky Investors Sepember 4, 2018 A Real Bargain for Risky Investors Some times, market reaction goes against fundamental analysis, creating opportunities for investors that have a long-term view and high risk tolerance to support volatilities and market turmoil, while fundamentals return, and market Conconcreto vs. COLCAP (Base 100 LTM) prices search for their fair value. 120 110 This is the case of these three stocks: Conconcreto, Cemex Latam Holdings, and 100 Avianca. Three stocks that have come under fire during the last months, seeing 90 their market prices falling more than 30% YTD, to historical lows in the case of the 80 first two, but where valuation, despite the risks associated with each asset, lies way 70 60 above current market prices. 50 40 It’s worth bearing in mind that we are not providing a full valuation approach in 30 this report. Our intention is to offer a value assessment under acid scenarios for sep.-17 nov.-17 ene.-18 mar.-18 may.-18 jul.-18 sep.-18 COLCAP Conconcreto each company, challenging the current market prices vs. their fundamental value. Of course, further price declines are possible, as those three companies are facing CLH vs. COLCAP (Base 100 LTM) corporate governance issues or are in the middle of key management decisions that 110 could affect the performance of their shares in the short term. 100 Conconcreto – Market Prices Assume There’s Zero Value in Construction Division 90 Assigning zero value to the construction division, zero value to the equity 80 contribution to the Via 40 Express concession project, and the potential maximum 70 fines that could be imposed against Conconcreto and Industrial Conconcreto for 60 COP78,124mn per company (total of COP156,248mn on a consolidated basis), the 50 relative valuation of Conconcreto would rise to COP416 per share, in line with sep.-17 nov.-17 ene.-18 mar.-18 may.-18 jul.-18 sep.-18 COLCAP CLH market prices, which means, that market players believe the construction division is gone. Cemex Latam Holdings – Market Prices Don’t even Reflect Value of Cement Avianca vs. COLCAP (Base 100 LTM) Operation The liquidation value of the cement operation (ex-Maceo) suggests a valuation of 120 COP9,516 per share, with an upside of 51% vs. market prices, meaning that 110 investors are valuing its ready-mix and aggregates operation at zero value, while 100 giving a huge discount to the cement operation not including the Maceo cement plant. 90 80 Avianca Holdings – Lifemiles Valued More than Avianca Holdings’ Consolidated 70 Operation 60 sep.-17 nov.-17 ene.-18 mar.-18 may.-18 jul.-18 sep.-18 In July 2015, Advent International acquired a 30% stake in Lifemiles for a total of COLCAP Avianca USD343.7mn, valuing Lifemiles at USD1,146mn. Assuming that valuation remains static, which is an acid test as members have increased by 36%, moving from 6,1mn Lifemiles members in 2Q15 to 8,3mn in 2Q18, the current value of Avianca Holdings Analysts in Lifemiles rises to USD802mn, or 18% higher than the current market cap of Name: Jairo Julián Agudelo Rpo Avianca Holdings of USD680mn. Phone: (574) 6047048 E-mail: [email protected] In other words, Avianca Holdings is valued below the stake Avianca Holdings has in Lifemiles. Name: Juliana Aguilar Vargas, CFA We reiterate that this is not an overweight recommendation on each of those Phone: (574) 6047045 stocks, given that liquidity issues added to current corporate governance E-mail: [email protected] investigations can keep shares under pressure with high volatility. This report is for high-risk tolerance investors with a long-term horizon. Name: Federico Perez Garcia Phone: (574) 6048172 E-mail: [email protected] Conconcreto – Market Prices Assume There’s Zero Value in Construction Division Assigning zero value to the construction division, zero value to the equity contribution to the Via 40 Express concession project, and the potential maximum fines that could be imposed against Conconcreto and Industrial Conconcreto for COP78,124mn per company (total of COP156,248mn on a consolidated basis), the relative valuation of Conconcreto would rise to COP416 per share, in line with market prices, which means that market players believe the construction division is gone. However, this assumption seems far from reality since around COP50,000mn of the EBITDA generated by the construction division comes from destinations other than infrastructure, which at this time are not at risk. In this line, if we give zero value to the construction of civil works, usually based on government, government related agencies’ or state companies’ initiatives, the valuation of Conconcreto could reach COP667/share, with an upside of 58% vs. market prices. Again, assuming that the infrastructure division of the construction company is valued at zero, an extreme and acid scenario at this time. Table 1. Conconcreto’s relative valuation approach - zero value to the construction of civil works Business Equity valuation Conconcreto’s % Conconcreto’s Valuation method equity Buildings Const. division 283,949 100% 283,949 Multiples PACTIA 2,119,534 42% 893,172 Multiples Industrial Conconcreto 129,624 100% 129,624 Book value Concesión C.C.F.C. 25,253 24% 6,061 Book value Concesión Devimed 95,712 25% 23,928 Book value Via Pacifico 120,364 33% 39,720 Book value Via 40 Express 0 50% 0 Book value Consalfa 35,354 50% 17,677 Book value Soletanche 43,381 41% 17,773 Book value Other investments 195,670 Book value Net debt (ex-construction) and corporate expenses (695,541) Potential fines from legal procedures (156,000) Total 756,033 # of shares outstanding 1,134 Price / share 667 Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Conconcreto. Table 2. Valuation Buildings Construction division Table 3. Valuation PACTIA COPmn COPmn Median EV/EBITDA global 9.8x Book value per share 2Q18 2,199,893 EBITDA buildings construction LTM 50,000 P/BV multiple 0.9x EV buildings construction division 490,726 Unit value – June 2018 11,020 Gross debt construction división 206,777 # of units 201.9 Equity value 283,949 Equity value average P/BV and unit value 2,119,534 Source: Own calculations, Bloomberg. Source: Own calculations, Grupo Argos’ 2Q18 results, Bloomberg. What Triggered the Sharp Fall in the Stock Price? On August 14 the Superintendence of Industry and Commerce (SIC) filed charges against Conconcreto and some top management executives that were linked to a collusion process in the allocation of the 4G concession program named Via 40 Express. There is no timeline for the resolution of this investigation, however, the potential impact foreseeable at this time could be a fine of up to COP78,124mn per company, and, since in this awarding process Conconcreto and Industrial Conconcreto were bidding together, there could be a potential double sanction, as mentioned before. Additional Risks Remain Although we have no further information of what could happen during the Figure 1. Conconcreto’s backlog investigation phase, there are key questions investors have had in mind which we want to replicate as are risks worth bearing in mind in the near term. 1. Could Conconcreto be blocked from participating in future public initiatives? This is one of the biggest risks since the infrastructure division of Conconcreto would be practically gone. Of Conconcreto’s current backlog of COP2.3bn, infrastructure represents 70%, while the remaining 30% comes from buildings (residential and non-residential purposes). 2. Does Conconcreto and Industrial Conconcreto have the resources to pay the fines? According to 2Q18 financial results, Conconcreto’s consolidated cash and cash equivalents closed at COP294,561mn. However, not all the cash is in the hands of Conconcreto, as a share is allocated in different SPVs that support infrastructure and residential projects. Despite this, we believe Conconcreto Source: Conconcreto’s 2Q18 results presentation. has the financial muscle to face such fines without risking financial solvency. 3. Could Conconreto’s financial results be affected by Hidroituango? At this time we believe it’s unlikely as the dam was almost completed. However, potential risks associated to legal procedures or future lawsuits are hard to estimate. Trading at Discount vs. Peers and Own Track Record It’s hard to asses a relative valuation given the illiquidity of the stock, however, the recent performance of the share price has led to a deep discount against its peers and its own track record, supporting the mismatch of fundamental vs. market prices. Currently, Conconcreto is trading at 0.35x P/BV and 6.3x EV/LTM EBITDA, both with a discount vs. market peers. Figure 2. Conconcreto’s EV/EBITDA LTM 5-year average Table 4. Conconcreto’s multiples vs. peers Company EV/LTM P/BV PE Ratio 14 EBITDA +2 SD 12 Median 8.3 0.7 6.13 +1 SD 10 Average 9.9 1.2 16.9 8 5Yr Average Conconcreto 6.3 0.4 6.1 6 -1 SD OHL Mexico 5.3 0.6 5.7 4 -2 SD Graña y 6.2 0.7 NA Montero 2 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Besalco 13.3 1.8 44.3 El Condor 10.4 0.65 3.3 Source: Bloomberg, Grupo Bancolombia’s own calculations. Source: Bloomberg, Grupo Bancolombia. Cemex Latam Holdings – Market Prices Don’t even Relfect Value of Cement Operation The liquidation value of the cement operation (ex-Maceo) suggests a valuation of COP9,516 per share, with an upside of 51% vs. market prices, meaning that investors are valuing the ready-mix and aggregates operation at zero value, while giving a big discount to the cement operation without including the Maceo cement plant.
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