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Don't Fight the Current

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Don't Fight the Current Don’t fight the current Taye Shim ([email protected]) Head of Research / Strategist Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Emma Fauni ([email protected]) Research Associate Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research June 26, 2018 Don’t fight the current . Turbulence driven by external factors: It has been a rollercoaster ride for the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in 1H18. The JCI started off with a good start reaching a year-high of 6,693pt on February 20. However, the upward trend was reversed following the release of Fed minutes hinting gradual monetary policy normalization (rate hikes). JCI continued its downward spiral driven by external issues including nuclear threats from North Korea, rising geopolitical risks in Middle East, US- China trade tensions, etc. How’s the domestic growth story? Macro wise, we think it’s not too hot, not too cold. External issues continue to challenge growth, however, domestic growth is strong enough to cushion the impact (stable consumption and exciting investment growth). Corporate earnings remain elusive amid stubbornly low inflationary backdrop. Indeed, our Universe revenue growth is projected to slip to 9% YoY from 13% YoY (2017). However, considering the gravity of the recent market pullback (-8% YTD), we judge market reaction to be overdone. The unwinding of index funds: Large caps were the darling during the strong inflows driven by global index funds. As market volatility escalates redemption of index funds have relentlessly net sold large caps regardless their fair value. As we expect prolonged strong dollar to prompt Long USD/ Short EM Asset strategy, we think the unwinding process is less likely to be short-lived. We reiterate our tactical underweight call and recommend investor to respond not react. Considering the stable domestic fundamentals, we believe market reaction is overdone. However, uncertainties pertaining to global developments and net sell position of index funds are likely to persist. We revise down our GDP growth forecasts from 5.3% (18F) / 5.5% (19F) to 5.2% (18F) / 5.3% (19F) and our 12MF JCI target from 6,795pt to 6,479pt. Summary: Don’t fight the current • Concerns are building and valuations are being squeezed • Recent challenges are externally originated with too many moving parts to the equation • Reiterate tactical underweight and don’t fight the current Markets in 1H18 Growing concerns in 2H18 How to position? Low inflation Game of Monopoly Concerns: Corporate earnings, Recommend companies, industries government intervention, macro growth that have monopoly characteristics Contagion of external Strong dollar Betting on Indonesia challenges to the Concerns: Pressure of rupiah, Normalization of monetary policy domestic market monetary tightening, fund outflows should keep rupiah steady Investment flows Stock picker’s market Concerns: Index fund unwind, Large Switching gears from top-down to cap squeeze, ugly returns bottom-up (Mid-to-small caps) Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Don’t fight the current| 2 | Economy review: Not too hot, not too cold Heat map of Indonesia’s economy (expenditure breakdown) Domestic growth is fine; the problem lies with external issues (YoY, %) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Real GDP growth 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 Private consumption 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 (55.0% of 1Q18 GDP) Government spending 3.4 6.2 -3.0 -4.1 2.7 -1.9 3.5 3.8 2.7 5.8% of 1Q18 GDP) Investments 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.8 5.4 7.1 7.3 8.0 (32.8% of 1Q18 GDP) Exports -3.3 -2.2 -5.7 4.2 8.0 3.4 17.3 8.5 6.2 (22.2% of 1Q18 GDP) Imports -5.1 -3.2 -3.7 2.8 5.0 0.6 15.1 11.8 12.8 (21.0% of 1Q18 GDP) Source: BPS, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Don’t fight the current| 4 | Quick check on external conditions Domestic growth is fine; the problem lies with external issues Indonesia recorded the worst trade balance since 2014 Indonesia’s import growth (USDmn) Trade balance (L) Export growth (R) (YoY, %) (%) 80 Consumption goods Import growth (R) Raw materials/ Auxiliary 2,000 60 60 Capital goods 40 1,500 50 20 0 1,000 40 -20 -40 500 30 -60 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 0 20 Indonesia’s export growth -500 10 (%) Total exports -1,000 0 60 Oil and gas 40 -1,500 -10 Non oil and gas 20 -1,629.3 -2,000 -20 0 -1,962.5 -20 -2,500 -2,329.1 -30 -40 -3,000 -40 -60 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 Source: BPS, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Don’t fight the current| 5 | Dealing with structural issues – Current account deficit • Trade balance is the structural supporting component of the nation’s current account • Eroding trade balance to add heavy pressure on Indonesia’s current account balance and the rupiah Trade balance has been driving CAD improvement Rupiah is weakening despite softening dollar (USDmn) ( %) (USD/IDR) (USD) Trade balance USD/IDR (L) Dollar index (R) 15,000 Services balance 3 15,000 105 Income balance 103 Balance of transfer 2 10,000 14,500 C.A. balance % of GDP (R) 101 1 99 5,000 14,000 97 0 0 13,500 95 -1 93 -5,000 13,000 -2 91 89 -10,000 12,500 -3 87 -15,000 -4 12,000 85 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Don’t fight the current| 6 | Spending intention = unexciting vs. Spending potential = exciting • Spending intention remains weak… • …however, supported by higher commodity prices, we see great potential for purchasing power Spending intention remains unexciting… …however, spending potential remains highly exciting (pt) (%) (USD) GDP per capital (L) Commodity index (R) (USD) Retail sales survey index (L) 4,000 170 Change (YoY, R) 3,876.8 250 30 3,751.4 3,666.8 3,605.1 3,531.9 25 3,525.2 150 200 3,500 3,372.9 20 130 2,977.0 150 15 3,000 10 110 2,349.8 100 2,500 5 2,300.4 90 0 50 2,000 -5 70 0 -10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1,500 50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Source: BPS, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Don’t fight the current| 7 | We feel comfortable with our muted growth view on gov. spending We see challenges to government spending due to widening budget deficit We can clearly understand the government’s intention …but there are also limitations to gov. spending… (IDRtr) (IDRtr) 2,500 2,133 600 Oil and non-oil subsidies 2,000 Budget balance Capital expenditure and goods/services expenses 1,500 1,736 Revenue 491 1,000 500 Spending 449 500 429 0 -4 -89 -47 -84 392 -500 -153 -212 -227 400 -298 -308 -397 -1,000 324 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 300 …due to short fall in state revenue (IDRtr) Income tax 200 186 174 FY17 784 475 96 441 160 Production taxes (VAT) FY16 666 412 65 442 International trade tax 100 Natural resources and environment FY14 546 409 241 551 0 Others 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Source: Government, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Source: Government, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Don’t fight the current| 8 | Encouraging investment growth • Favorable policy settings have led to rating upgrades • We see limited concerns related to the upcoming presidential election Business-friendly policy settings Rating agencies are upgrading Indonesia Jokowi coalition secures 51.8% of votes In July 2017 the People's Representative Council Rating confirmed that only parties coalitions with at least 20% Prime Aaa AAA of seats in the legislature, or 25% of votes in the Now is time to attract previous election, would be eligible to field a Aa1 AA+ presidential candidate. investments: Jokowi High grade Aa2 AA Parties Leader Seats % Aa3 AA- Jakarta Post , August 29, 2017 PDI-P Megawati Soekarnoputri 109 19.5% A1 A+ Golkar Airlangga Hartarto 91 16.3% Upper medium A2 A grade Gerindra Prabowo Subianto 73 13.0% A3 A- Ease of doing business (2017) PD Susilo Bambang Y 61 10.9% Baa1 BBB+ MY CN Asia IN PH PAN Zulkifli Hasan 49 8.8% Lower medium Baa2 BBB grade PKB Muhaimin Iskandar 47 8.4% Rank 23 78 - 91 99 Baa3 BBB- PKS Sohibul Iman 40 7.1% Score 78.1 64.3 62.0 61.5 60.4 Ba1 BB+ Non-investable PPP Muhammad R 39 7.0% Ba2 BB Ease of doing business (2018) grade Nasdem Surya Paloh 35 6.3% speculative Ba3 BB- MY IN CN Asia PH Hanura Oesman Sapta Odang 16 2.9% Highly B1 B+ Rank 24 72 78 - 113 PBB Yusril Ihza Mahendra 0 0.0% speculative B2 B PKPI 0 0.0% Score 78.4 66.5 65.3 62.7 58.7 grade B3 B- Total 560 100% Source: World Bank, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Source: DPR, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Note: Parties marked yellow represents PDI-P coalition (51.8%) supporting current president Joko Widodo Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Don’t fight the current| 9 | Monetary policy: Better late than never Fed is ready to “gradually” tighten • Dual mandate has reached Fed’s target… • …however, Fed is willing to let inflation overshoot, for now US inflation (PCE) has reached Fed’s objective… …and unemployment is already below target (4.0%) (%) (%) 12 5.0 10/09 Core PCE 10.0 PCE 4.0 10 3.0 8 04/18 2.0 2.0 1.8 6 1.0 4 5/07 0.0 05/18 4.4 3.8 2 -1.0 0 -2.0 12/01 12/04 12/07 12/10 12/13 12/16 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Don’t fight the current| 11 | Fed’s rate hike less likely to shock Indonesia • Monetary policy gap between US and peers likely to drive the value of USD higher… • …however, given monetary policy normalization we see limited impact on Indonesia BI is behind the curve, however, better late than never Credit rating agencies have endorsed Indo’s strength (10yr gov.
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