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Survei-Nasional-Y-Publica-V03.Pdf METODOLOGI DAN RESPONDEN • Survei nasional ini menggunakan metode penelitian kuantitatif • Jumlah sampel adalah 1200 responden, dipilih secara acakbertingkat (multistage random sampling), mewakili 120 desa dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia • Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan wawancara tatap muka kepada responden terpilih menggunakan alat bantu kuisioner • Tenaga pewawancara dalam survei ini adalah mahasiswa yang telah mendapatkan pelatihan • Estimasi margin error adalah 2,98% dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95% • Pengambilan data dilakukan pada 2-12 Mei 2018 KUALITAS UJI SURVEI Pra-Survei • Pelatihan metode survei dan kuesioner kepada tim enumerator oleh ahli survei • Pelatihan teknik wawancara kuesioner kepada tim pewancara yang terdiri dari mahasiswa • Diskusi terbatas tentang pertanyaan-pertanyaan dan target kuisioner Survei: • Spotcheck (pengecekan di lapangan) terhadap 20% responden yang dipilih secara acak • Call-back (20% responden secara acak) oleh tim untuk memastikan penarikan sampel responden dan wawancara dengan responden telah dilakukan dengan benar Pasca-survei • Entry data dan pengolahan data KOMPOSISI RESPONDEN Jenis kelamin Pendidikan Terakhir Suku Bangsa Laki-laki 49.7% Tidak Tamat SD 4.9% Jawa 40.2% Sunda 16.4% Perempuan 50.3% Tamat SD 14.4% Bugis 2.5% Tamat SMP 20.7% Minangkabau 2.7% Usia Tamat SLTA/Sederajat 47.2% Betawi 2.7% Pemilih Pemula (17-21) 7.2% Tamat Diploma (D1, D2, D3) 5.0% Batak 2.6% Pemilih Muda (22-35) 36.4% Tamat Sarjana (S1, S2, S3) 7.8% Melayu 2.5% Pemilih Dewasa (36-50) 31.8% Madura 2.4% Pemilih Matang (51-60) 20.3% Status Perkawinan Aceh 1.6% Banjar 1.5% Pemilih Lansia (>61) 4.3% Kawin 75.5% Belum Kawin 17.4% Makassar 1.4% Cerai 7.1% Ambon 1.2% Pekerjaan Dayak 1.2% Karyawan/Pekerja 23.2% Klasifikasi Tempat Tinggal Bali 1.2% Wiraswasta 30.8% Perkotaan 48.2% Mandar 1.1% Pegawai Negeri Sipil 2.4% Pedesaan 51.8% Sasak 1.1% Ibu Rumah Tangga 21.3% Lainnya 17.7% Kategori Pengeluaran Per Bulan Mahasiswa 2.2% Di bawah Rp 2 juta 13.7% Agama Petani/Nelayan 8.5% Rp 2-5 juta 55.4% Islam 87.4% Keahlian Tertentu 4.7% Rp 5-10 juta 29.0% Protestan & Katolik 9.9% Belum Bekerja 5.9% Di atas Rp 10 juta 1.9% Lainnya 2.7% RESPONS TERHADAP TAGAR #2019GantiPresiden RESPONS TERHADAP TAGAR #2019GantiPresiden Apakah anda pernah mendengar atau melihat gerakan tagar #2019GantiPresiden? 50,3% 49,7% Ya Tidak RESPONS TERHADAP TAGAR #2019GantiPresiden (Jika pernah mendengar), apa yang anda ketahui dari gerakan tersebut? Gerakan di media sosial 36,4% Gerakan bermuatan politik 27,9% Gerakan berbau makar 3,4% Gerakan ketidakpuasan terhadap pemerintah 7,5% Tidak menjawab 24,8% RESPONS TERHADAP TAGAR #2019GantiPresiden Dari namanya gerakan ini tidak menginginkan Jokowi menjadi Presiden di tahun 2019 dan sesudahnya. Apakah anda setuju dengan gerakan tersebut? 67,3% 29,0% 3,7% Setuju Tidak setuju Tidak menjawab RESPONS TERHADAP TAGAR #2019GantiPresiden (Jika setuju) menurut anda, siapa tokoh yang cocok menjadi Presiden pengganti Jokowi? Prabowo Subianto 40,9% Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 11,2% Anies Baswedan 10,9% Gatot Nurmantyo 10,5% Habib Rizieq Shihab 0,2% Amien Rais 0,5% Tokoh/figur lain 9,4% Tidak menjawab 16,4% KEPUASAN TERHADAP KINERJA PEMERINTAHAN KEPUASAN TERHADAP KINERJA PEMERINTAHAN Menurut anda, apakah anda puas dengan kinerja pemerintahan Joko Widodo dan Yusuf Kalla dalam menyelesaikan hal-hal berikut ini: Puas Tidak Puas Pembangunan infrastruktur 75,3% 24,7% Pemberantasan korupsi 73,5% 26,5% Pendidikan 72,8% 27,2% Kesehatan 70,7% 29,3% Hubungan luar negeri 68,0% 32,0% Perlindungan HAM 50,4% 49,6% Penciptaan lapangan kerja 47,6% 52,4% Pemenuhan kebutuhan pokok 40,1% 59,9% KEPUASAN TERHADAP KINERJA PEMERINTAHAN Menurut anda, apakah kondisi politik Indonesia hari ini lebih baik dari 5 tahun sebelumnya? 50,3% 39,4% 10,3% Lebih baik Sama saja/tidak ada Lebih buruk perubahan KEPUASAN TERHADAP KINERJA PEMERINTAHAN Menurut anda, apakah kondisi perekonomian Indonesia hari ini lebih baik dari 5 tahun sebelumnya? 52,2% 30,9% 16,9% Lebih baik Sama saja/tidak ada Lebih buruk perubahan KEPUASAN TERHADAP KINERJA PEMERINTAHAN Secara umum, apakah anda puas dengan kinerja pemerintahan Joko Widodo dan Jusuf Kalla saat ini? 72,5% 27,5% Puas Tidak Puas PEMILU PRESIDEN PEMILU PRESIDEN Popularitas Tokoh Nasional Apakah anda mengetahui atau pernah mendengar nama tokoh di bawah ini? Ya Tidak Joko Widodo 99,6% 0,4% Jusuf Kalla 95,1% 4,9% Prabowo Subianto 91,2% 8,8% Anies Baswedan 78,6% 21,4% Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 77,8% 22,2% Hary Tanoesoedibjo 71,3% 28,7% Susi Pudjiastuti 65,1% 34,9% Sri Mulyani Indrawati 59,8% 40,2% Gatot Nurmantyo 55,4% 44,6% Mahfud MD 52,5% 47,5% Muhaimin Iskandar 47,3% 52,7% Zulkifli Hasan 33,5% 66,5% Airlangga Hartarto 31,4% 68,6% TGB Zainul Majdi 30,5% 69,5% Rizal Ramli 27,9% 72,1% Abraham Samad 27,4% 72,6% PEMILU PRESIDEN Kesukaan Terhadap Capres/Cawapres Apakah anda setuju jika tokoh-tokoh di bawah ini mencalonkan diri sebagai capres/cawapres? Ya Tidak Joko Widodo 86,7% 13,3% Prabowo Subianto 83,4% 16,6% Jusuf Kalla 80,6% 19,4% Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 71,2% 28,8% Anies Baswedan 70,5% 29,5% Susi Pudjiastuti 58,3% 41,7% Sri Mulyani Indrawati 54,9% 45,1% Abraham Samad 48,1% 51,9% Gatot Nurmantyo 45,8% 54,2% Hary Tanoesoedibjo 40,2% 59,8% Muhaimin Iskandar 39,2% 60,8% Zulkifli Hasan 28,4% 71,6% Airlangga Hartarto 27,6% 72,4% TGB Zainul Majdi 22,9% 77,1% Rizal Ramli 21,7% 78,3% Mahfud MD 20,1% 79,9% PEMILU PRESIDEN Tingkat Keterpilihan Calon Presiden (5 Nama) Jika pemilu Presiden digelar hari ini, siapa tokoh di bawah ini yang anda pilih sebagai Presiden Indonesia mendatang? Joko Widodo 59,1% Prabowo Subianto 22,0% Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 4,9% Gatot Nurmantyo 3,8% Anies Baswedan 2,2% Belum Memutuskan 6,4% Rahasia 1,6% PEMILU PRESIDEN Tingkat Keterpilihan Calon Presiden (pertanyaan terbuka) Bila pemilu presiden digelar hari ini, siapa yang anda pilih sebagai Presiden RI? Joko Widodo 56,6% Prabowo Subianto 21,7% Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 2,5% Gatot Nurmantyo 2,4% Anies Baswedan 2,0% Jusuf Kalla 1,5% Hary Tanoesoedibjo 1,3% Muhaimin Iskandar 0,6% Susi Pudjiastuti 0,2% Airlangga Hartarto 0,1% Zulkifli Hasan 0,1% Sri Mulyani Indrawati 0,1% Mahfud MD 0,1% Rizal Ramli 0,1% TGB Zainul Majdi 0,1% Abraham Samad 0,0% Belum Memilih 7,1% Rahasia 3,5% PEMILU PRESIDEN Kandidat Wakil Presiden Elektabilitas Calon Wakil Presiden (5 nama) Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 19,2% Gatot Nurmantyo 16,5% Anies Baswedan 14,7% Airlangga Hartarto 4,1% Muhaimin Iskandar 3,1% Belum Memutuskan 35,6% Rahasia 6,8% PEMILU PRESIDEN Elektabilitas Cawapres (Pilihan terbuka) Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 14,8% Gatot Nurmantyo 10,8% Anies Baswedan 9,4% Basuki Tjahaja Purnama 5,9% Jusuf Kalla 5,1% Susi Pudjiastuti 4,2% Airlangga Hartarto 3,6% Muhaimin Iskandar 3,0% TGB Zainul Majdi 2,5% M.Sohibul Iman 1,1% Belum Memutuskan 34,1% Rahasia 5,5% PEMILU PRESIDEN Simulasi 2 nama (head to head) Andaikan Pemilu Presiden digelar hari ini, hanya diikuti oleh dua nama berikut ini, mana yang anda pilih sebagai Presiden? Joko Widodo 53,7% Prabowo Subianto 30,2% Belum memutuskan 11,4% Rahasia 4,7% PEMILU PRESIDEN Simulasi 2 nama (head to head) Andaikan Pemilu Presiden digelar hari ini, hanya diikuti oleh dua nama berikut ini, mana yang anda pilih sebagai Presiden? Joko Widodo 63,0% Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 14,2% Belum memutuskan 17,0% Rahasia 5,8% PEMILU PRESIDEN Simulasi 2 nama (head to head) Andaikan Pemilu Presiden digelar hari ini, hanya diikuti oleh dua nama berikut ini, mana yang anda pilih sebagai Presiden? Joko Widodo 63,5% Anies Baswedan 13,7% Belum memutuskan 16,7% Rahasia 6,1% PEMILU PRESIDEN Simulasi 2 nama (head to head) Andaikan Pemilu Presiden digelar hari ini, hanya diikuti oleh dua nama berikut ini, mana yang anda pilih sebagai Presiden? Joko Widodo 63,7% Gatot Nurmantyo 12,6% Belum memutuskan 18,1% Rahasia 5,6% PEMILU PRESIDEN Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pilihan Capres-Cawapres: Apakah faktor-faktor di bawah ini menjadi pertimbangan anda dalam memilih capres/cawapres dalam Pemilu 2019 nanti? Ya Tidak Agama 60,4% 39,6% Jenis Kelamin 28,3% 71,7% Usia 27,7% 72,3% Kesamaan Suku 24,5% 75,5% PEMILU PRESIDEN Kriteria Pilihan Capres-Cawapres Bebas korupsi 37,6% Merakyat 32,5% Tegas dan berwibawa 13,4% Cerdas/berpengetahuan tinggi 5,5% Lainnya 11,0% PARTAI POLITIK PESERTA PEMILU PARTAI POLITIK PESERTA PEMILU Elektabilitas Partai Politik Partai politik manakah di bawah ini yang anda pilih dalam Pemilu 2019 nanti? PDIP 25,3% Gerindra 11,1% Golkar 10,3% Demokrat 5,7% PKB 5,1% Nasdem 3,4% PKS 3,2% Perindo 3,1% PPP 3,0% PAN 2,1% Hanura 1,9% PSI 1,3% PBB 1,0% PKPI 0,9% Berkarya 0,5% Garuda 0,4% Belum memutuskan 18,1% Rahasia 3,6% PARTAI POLITIK PESERTA PEMILU Elektabilitas Partai Baru Dari 4 partai baru di pemilu 2019 nanti, manakah yang anda yang paling disukai: Perindo 30,7% PSI 29,1% Garuda 9,8% Berkarya 13,1% Tidak menjawab 17,3% PARTAI POLITIK PESERTA PEMILU Harapan Partai Baru Apa yang anda sukai dari partai-partai baru peserta Pemilu 2019 ? Rekam jejak bersih 51,4% Tokoh wajah baru 15,9% Punya agenda politik yang jelas 15,3% Anak muda 10,4% Lainnya 7,0% PARTAI POLITIK PESERTA PEMILU Medium Sosialisasi Partai (Ditanyakan: partai-partai mana saja yang dikenal atau pernah didengar oleh Responden), lalu ajukan pertanyaan: Dari manakah anda mengenal Partai-Partai Politik tersebut? Iklan (televisi, reklame, dll) 30,5% Pemberitaan 27,2% Media sosial 21,7% Sosialisasi manual 14,7% Lainnya 5,9% PARTAI POLITIK PESERTA PEMILU Preferensi Memilih Partai Ketika anda memilih partai politik dalam pemilu mendatang, faktor apa yang menentukan pilihan anda? Program partai 31,3% Tokoh/figur partai
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