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Resande Och Trafik Med Gröna Tåget

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Resande Och Trafik Med Gröna Tåget Resande och trafik med Gröna tåget Oskar Fröidh Stockholm 14 juni 2010 KTH Järnvägsgruppen Publikation 1001 ISBN 978-91-7415-684-3 Oskar Fröidh Samtliga bilder där annat ej anges: Oskar Fröidh English translation: Ian Huthinson Kontakt med författaren: Avdelningen för trafik och logistik KTH 100 44 Stockholm Tel: 08-790 83 79 [email protected] www.infra.kth.se/jvg www.gronataget.se Tryckt hos Intellecta Infolog, Göteborg 2010 2 Resande och trafik med Gröna tåget Förord Gröna tåget är som forsknings- och utvecklingsprogram tämligen unikt genom att såväl högskolor som infrastrukturförvaltare, järnvägsföretag och tågtillverkare engageras i ett gemensamt program. Alltsedan starten 2005 har målet varit att ta fram en konceptspecifikation för ett nytt attraktivt snabbtåg. Konceptspecifikationen kan fungera som en idébank, rekommendationer och tekniska lösningar för järnvägsföretag, banförvaltare och tillverkningsindustrin. Är Gröna tåget ett snabbtåg eller ett höghastighetståg? På svenska betyder snabbtåg ett korglutande tåg som framförs med överhastighet i kurvorna med topphastighet på 200-250 km/h. Höghastighetståg brukar definieras som ett tåg med topphastighet på 250 km/h eller mer och som i första hand är avsett för rakare höghastighetsbanor byggda för upp till 350 km/h. På många andra språk finns inte denna åtskillnad utan båda tågtyperna heter till exempel på engelska high-speed train. Det europeiska regelverket TSD för höghastighetståg omfattar följaktligen alla tåg (i tre olika klasser) som har topphastigheter på 200 km/h eller mer. Gröna tåget är därför både snabbtåg och höghastighetståg. I denna rapport har jag dock valt att använda det svenska, kortare begreppet snabbtåg, för att särskilja det från dagens konventionella höghastighetståg och samtidigt peka på Gröna tågets unika egenskaper. I delprojektet om Marknad och trafik har, förutom undertecknad rapportförfattare, Hans Sipilä och Johannes Wolfmaier från KTH, och Ana Rivas, UCLM, Spanien deltagit med större eller mindre insatser. Dessutom vill jag främst tacka Gröna tågets programledare Tohmmy Bustad på Trafikverket för stöd och entusiasm, och professor emeritus Evert Andersson som har bidragit med synpunkter på allt från kontaktledning till jord. Tack också till alla andra, inte omnämnda, som bistått med faktauppgifter, synpunkter och idéer. För innehåll och slutsatser i denna forskningsrapport svarar författaren. Eftersom forskningsrapporten är underlagsmaterial för Gröna tågets slutrapporter, som planeras utkomma under 2011, är synpunkter på innehållet mycket välkomna. Stockholm i juni 2010 Oskar Fröidh Forskare 3 Oskar Fröidh Innehåll Förord ........................................................................................................ 3 Innehåll ..................................................................................................... 4 Sammanfattning ........................................................................................ 7 Summary: Travelling and traffic with Gröna tåget .................................. 15 1. Gröna tåget – mål och visioner ............................................................. 23 1.1 Vad är Gröna tåget? ......................................................................................... 23 1.2 Delprojektet Marknad och trafik ................................................................... 25 2. Marknaden för snabbtågstrafik ............................................................ 27 2.1 Introduktion ...................................................................................................... 27 2.2 Långväga resandemarknaden ......................................................................... 28 2.3 Produktionskostnader för tåg och flyg ......................................................... 34 2.4 Snabbtåg på resemarknaden ........................................................................... 36 2.5 Resande med Gröna tåget i Sverige .............................................................. 43 2.6 Efterfrågevariationer i trafiken ....................................................................... 56 2.7 Sammanfattning ................................................................................................ 61 3. Ekonomi för Gröna tåget...................................................................... 63 3.1 Kostnadsmodellen ........................................................................................... 63 3.2 Generella analyser ............................................................................................ 72 3.3 Analyser av tågkoncept ................................................................................... 74 3.4 Ekonomiska nyckeltal för konceptförslaget ................................................ 82 3.5 Trafikupplägg .................................................................................................... 85 3.6 Sammanfattning ................................................................................................ 90 4. Tågkoncept Gröna tåget....................................................................... 91 4.1 Förutsättningar för tågets utformning .......................................................... 91 4.2 Säkerhet ............................................................................................................. 92 4.3 Tågets bredd...................................................................................................... 95 4.4 Tåglängd .......................................................................................................... 104 4.5 Utformning för punktliga stationsuppehåll ............................................... 108 4.6 Aktivitetsansats för tågets utformning ........................................................ 124 4.7 Bagage på tåg .................................................................................................. 126 4.8 Sittkomfort ...................................................................................................... 133 4.9 Servering .......................................................................................................... 138 4.10 Sammanfattning ........................................................................................... 140 4 Resande och trafik med Gröna tåget 5. Vagnsplaner för Gröna tåget............................................................... 141 5.1 Utformning för fjärrtrafik ............................................................................. 141 5.2 Bred vagnskorg (GTW) ................................................................................. 144 5.3 Kontinental korgbredd (GTC) ..................................................................... 148 5.4 Korta vagnskorgar (GTA) ............................................................................ 150 5.5 Skillnader mellan tågkoncepten ................................................................... 152 5.6 Sammanfattning .............................................................................................. 153 6. Bana för högre hastigheter ................................................................. 155 6.1 Mål för hastighetshöjning ............................................................................. 155 6.2 Bangeometri och tågegenskaper .................................................................. 157 6.3 Kapacitet .......................................................................................................... 166 6.4 Bantekniska förutsättningar .......................................................................... 174 6.5 Sammanfattning .............................................................................................. 185 7. Samhällsekonomisk analys ................................................................. 187 7.1 Analysen som verktyg .................................................................................... 187 7.2 Kalkylförutsättningar ..................................................................................... 187 7.3 Kalkylresultat .................................................................................................. 193 7.4 Genomförandealternativ ............................................................................... 198 7.5 Sammanfattning .............................................................................................. 202 8. Slutsatser ............................................................................................. 205 8.1 Diskussion ....................................................................................................... 205 8.2 Slutsatser om marknad och trafik ................................................................ 210 8.3 Fortsatt forskning och utredning ................................................................. 214 Litteraturförteckning .............................................................................. 217 5 Oskar Fröidh 6 Resande och trafik med Gröna tåget Sammanfattning Slutsatser i punktform a) Genom utbudsförbättringar, i form av kortare restider och också lägre biljettpriser, något ökad turtäthet och flera direkta förbindelser, kan resandet med Gröna tåget öka med upp till 30 % jämfört med dagens utbud. b) En hastighetshöjning från 200 km/h upp till 250 km/h och något högre kurvhastigheter med korglutning reducerar restiderna med 9-10 % jämfört med nuvarande snabbtåg och bidrar till ökat resande. c) Gröna tåget med breda korgar medför en reduktion med 15 % av de totala
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