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ICE Coffee Markets Price Discovery Using Global Futures Markets

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ICE Coffee Markets Price Discovery Using Global Futures Markets ICE Coffee Markets Price discovery using global futures markets David Farrell Chief Operating Officer, ICE Futures U.S. November 2019 We began by transforming energy markets and expanded through innovation into new markets 2018 ICE adds BondPoint Coffee “C”, Cocoa and TMC to 2014 Sugar 11, FCOJ comprehensive ICE acquires majority stake bond trading offering and Cotton #2 in continental European clearing house, now ICE Clear 2016 2001 2009 Acquires Chicago Stock Netherlands; spins out Euronext ICE acquires Standard ICE expands into ICE acquires former Exchange, now NYSE & Poor’s Securities 2017 energy futures, Board of Trade Chicago 2007 Expands in Asia with Singapore Evaluations, Inc. ICE adds the Bank of acquiring the Clearing Corp; ICE acquires futures exchange and clearing & Credit Market America Merrill Lynch International launches 2 Launches Bakkt to bring New York Board of house Analysis. Global Research Petroleum Exchange, CDS clearing houses, trust and utility to digital Trade, now ICE division’s index now ICE Futures quickly becoming assets Futures US Adds SuperDerivatives, provider of Secures majority stake business to global Europe global leader analytics, valuation and data in MERSCORP index platform Acquires remaining Holdings stake in MERSCORP 2000 2002 2008 2010 2013 2015 2016 2017 2019 ICE forms from ICE introduces ICE enters credit ICE expands reach in ICE acquires NYSE ICE acquires Interactive ICE launches expanded ICE acquires ICE adds to predecessor industry’s first market acquiring emissions markets Euronext Data Corporation, a ICE Data Services, bringing Canadian energy mortgage company, cleared OTC leading inter-dealer with acquisition of leading provider of together proprietary exchange & business Continental Power energy contracts CDS broker Creditex Climate Exchange Acquires majority stake financial market data exchange data, valuations, clearing house with Exchange (CPEX), in APX Endex, and analytics analytics, desktop tools and NGX, and the acquisition which was acquired Acquires YellowJacket, launches ICE Endex connectivity solutions National Stock of Simplifile in 1997 to build an instant messaging NYSE invests in digital Exchange electronic, platform for traders, currency exchange Launches ICE Swap, an transparent energy now ICE Chat Coinbase innovative platform for marketplace trading cleared single name Launches ICE Clear Robusta Coffee, CDS in a central limit order Europe, UK’s first London Cocoa, book new clearing house White Sugar and UK In 100 years Feed Wheat CONFIDENTIAL INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 2 Futures Market Timeline 1870 1882 1916 1925 1966 1979 1998 2007 Cotton NY Cotton Exchange (NYCE) NYCE (adds FCOJ) FCOJ New York Board of Trade Coffee C Coffee Exchange of the City of NY ICE Futures US NY Coffee and Sugar Exchange Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa (NYBOT) Sugar 11 Exchange (CSCE) Cocoa New York Cocoa Exchange * Source: ICE Futures US 1888 1928 1929 1941 1952 1954 1956 1958 1987 1991 1996 2013 Robusta Coffee Coffee Trade Association London Futures and Options White Sugar United Terminal Sugar Markets Association LCE ICE Futures WWII LCE Exchange (FOX) FOX LIFFE London Cocoa Cocoa Terminal Markets Assocation CTMA London Commodity Exchange (LCE) Europe UK Feed Wheat London Grain Futures Market ?? Baltic Futures Exchange * Source: Duncan, Richard, editor. “Soft commodities and the London Fox.” Agricultural Futures and Options: A guide to using North American and European Markets. Woodhead Publishing Ltd, 1992, pp. 85-92. INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 3 Soft Commodities Futures Market Origins Current Market Current Exchange First Iteration Year Cotton No. 2 Futures ICE Futures US New York Cotton Exchange 1870 Coffee ‘C’ Futures ICE Futures US Coffee Exchange of the City of New York 1882 White Sugar Futures ICE Futures Europe United Terminal Sugar Market Association* 1888 Sugar No. 11 Futures ICE Futures US Coffee Exchange of New York (Later renamed New 1914 York Coffee and Sugar Exchange in 1916) Cocoa Futures ICE Futures US New York Cocoa Exchange 1925 London Cocoa Futures ICE Futures Europe Cocoa Terminal Markets Association* 1928 UK Feed Wheat Futures ICE Futures Europe London Grain Futures Market* 1929 Robusta Futures ICE Futures Europe Coffee Terminal Markets Association* ** 1958 FCOJ Futures ICE Futures US New York Cotton Exchange 1966 * Source: Evans, Giles, editor. “Exchange Directory.” ICCH Commodities Yearbook 1990. Macmillan Publishers Ltd, 1990, pp. 307-309. ** Coffee Terminal Markets Association was also preceded by a Coffee Trade Association which was established in 1888. INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 4 ICE Futures Exchanges and ICE Clearing Houses Primary Functions ICE Futures ICE Clear • Risk management • Disintermediation of counterparty risk • Offset commercial risk • Financially robust central counterparty • Price discovery • Vetted roster of clearing members (Exchange access) • Primary pricing market for standard specification product • Risk valuation and collateralization • Benchmark for physical transactions • Positions collateralized to industry accepted best standards • Buyer and seller of last resort • Consolidated accounts • Physical delivery mechanism for exchange of goods • Positions fully netted by account INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 5 Risk Management Instruments • Future – Contract to buy (sell) a specific quantity of goods at a specific price for a fixed period in the future • Standardized terms including: • Quantity • Par Quality • Delivery Period • Option – Contract for the right, but not the obligation, to buy (sell) a futures contract at a pre-determined price • Terms include: • Whether the right is to buy (“Call” option) or sell (“Put”) Option • The price at which the purchase (sale) would occur • Other markets include calendar spreads, calendar spread options (CSOs), inter-market spreads, and trade-at-settlement. INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 6 Futures Contract ICE Futures Second month Future price 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 Sellers want to hedge when prices prices are low or in an uptrend are high or in downtrend Buyers want to hedge when INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE ICE Futures Price 7 Risk Management Examples Coffee Futures Coffee Producer Merchant Roaster • Farming Co-operative • Trade House which • Purchases green purchases from coffee from merchants • Secures lending for producers and sells to for roasting fertilizer and operations it’s network of roaster to cover next crop year customers • Needs to ensure input costs are below break • Lending secured • Carries inventory to even level for against future sales meet customer forecasted sales and requires price demand protection • Buys call options to • Sells futures spreads protect against green • Sells futures to ensure to ensure profits coffee cost increases profitability if price including carrying costs declines INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 8 Coffee Exchange Supply Chain IFEU IFUS INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 9 Price Discovery • Participants across all parts of the supply chain can transfer risk in a single, centralized market • Known par-quality standard used to establish a benchmark price for a commodity • Prices of transactions are used to determine the appropriate present value of the underlying commodity • Prices of transactions also used to determine the relative value of related commodities, including different quality specifications of the commodity, alternate locations, by-products, etc INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 10 Trading in Electronic Markets INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 11 Price Discovery Through Futures Coffee Futures Certified Inventory Par Valuation Basis Pricing • Coffee exported from • Market Participants • Benchmark price origin countries and evaluate supply/ utilized across many stored in Exchange demand conditions for types of contracts certified warehouses deliverable supply • Physical contracts • Grading results • Bids, offers and indexed to the futures published by the transactions form (Futures price + Exchange, allowing pricing information differential spread) market to understand across various periods deliverable supply for the futures contracts • Benchmark price established and distributed INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 12 Price Basis Contract Requirements $20* Contract Requirements $0.05* ) Delivery Terms $50* e Delivery Terms $0.05* c Basis i Origin DIFFERENTIAL Origin DIFFERENTIAL r $150* $0.10* (standard terms) (standard terms) P t h g i r Robusta Contract Coffee “C” Contract t u Terms Terms O ( . 10 MT . 37,500 lbs (17 MT) e . Free-on-Truck c Futures . In-store i r . Licensed warehouse . Licensed warehouse P . Any origin $1,350* $1.10* e . Origin prem/disc e f . Warrant Weights (MT) . Port prem/disc f o . Rent paid through end . Age discount C of Delivery Month . Warrant Weights (lbs) n e . +/- 2 months rent . Outbound and Rent e r differential cost adjustments G * Figures are shown as an example and NOT indicative of current value. INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 13 Buyer / Seller of Last Resort Certification of Specific Grades Evaluates specific lots of product to determine: • Does the product meet the minimum specification of the futures contract? • Are there characteristics of the product that requires a premium or discount to be attached at delivery? • Measure the specific quantity of the product • Allow transfer of the commodity from sellers to buyers anonymously through the Exchange INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE 14 Buyer / Seller of Last Resort Example Coffee ‘C’ Grade Defect Categories • Black Bean: a coffee bean of which more • Bean Fragment: a fragment of a coffee than one-half
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