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Haier Electronics Bloomberg: 1169 HK Equity | Reuters: 1169.HK Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report

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China / Hong Kong Company Focus Haier Electronics Bloomberg: 1169 HK Equity | Reuters: 1169.HK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 9 September 2015 BUY Large still gets larger Last Traded Price: HK$12.82 (HSI : 22,131) Latest volatile market sentiment could affect replacement demand Price Target : HK$18.41 (44% upside) (Prev HK$28.32) for home appliances. Last year’s slower housing sales could also Potential Catalyst: Rising contributions from 3rd-party logistics services and e-commerce operations mean weaker home appliance demand to linger in near-term given Where we differ: Our FY15/16/17 net profit estimates are 3%/3%/4% the former’s 9-12 months of delayed impacts on home appliances. below Bloomberg consensus, as we try to be more prudent given the We adjusted down our profit projections conservatively, with new current volatile market conditions TP of HK$18.41 to base on 15x rolling PE. Our latest estimates Analyst denote 12% earnings CAGR for 2014-17, which is fairly decent Mavis HUI +852 2863 8879 given current changing conditions. [email protected] In view of a solid white goods division and encouraging downstream prospects for the medium-term, especially with its Price Relative ample cash for more synergistic M&As, and trading at 8.5x rolling HK$ Relative Index PE, 0.7x PEG, and >20% ROE, we maintain BUY. 264 24.6 Slow near-term demand possible. The steep downturn in A-shares since 214 mid-Jun 2015 (down c.40%) plus a low market visibility could continue 19.6 to affect replacement demand for the home appliance sector. A normal, 14.6 164 9-12 months’ delay in impacts on the sector from 2014’s decline in housing sales might also continue for a short while. Yet, following its 9.6 114 acquisition of Fujian Shengfeng Logistics (58%), Shanghai Grand 4.6 64 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Logistics (34%), and its RMB1.2bn investments in Sinopec Marketing during 1H15 to hopefully enhancing Haier’s downstream presence, the Haier Electronics (LHS) Relative HSI INDEX (RHS) company still sits on c.RMB8bn net cash for further suitable M&As, Forecasts and Valuation potentially at better asking prices under current volatile environment to FY Dec (RMB m) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F benefit medium-term performance. Turnover 67,134 64,895 66,883 70,100 EBITDA 3,163 3,741 4,193 4,760 Earnings cut. To recall, in 1H15 Haier registered 4.9% y-o-y revenue fall Pre-tax Profit 3,166 3,541 3,983 4,521 to RMB31.3bn, along with weaker operating conditions across the home Net Profit 2,447 2,746 3,064 3,448 appliance industry and slower-than-expected performance for its EPS (RMB) 1.02 1.15 1.28 1.44 integrated channel service division. Yet, earnings climbed 12.2% to EPS (HK$) 1.24 1.40 1.56 1.75 RMB1.1bn amid lower raw material costs, product-mix fine-tuning, better EPS Gth (%) 20.1 12.2 11.6 12.6 sales momentum of higher-margin units (e.g. manufacturing; furniture Diluted EPS (HK$) 1.05 1.17 1.29 1.45 DPS (HK$) 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.17 logistics), and more effective cost management. We cut earnings by 6- BV Per Share (HK$) 5.84 7.13 8.56 10.16 14% for 2015-17 to reflect the low visibility and slower-than-expected PE (X) 10.3 9.2 8.2 7.3 1H15 performances. Our new TP of HK$18.41 now benchmarks a lower, P/Cash Flow (X) 8.7 6.0 6.0 5.4 15x rolling PE (previous: 19x rolling ex-cash PE) along with a more P/Free CF (X) 11.0 7.9 8.0 7.1 moderated earnings trend. EV/EBITDA (X) 5.0 4.3 3.3 2.5 Net Div Yield (%) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 Possible upside surprises? (1) Further pick-up in manufacturing gross P/Book Value (X) 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 margins from better raw material costs (e.g. steel & plastics account for Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH c.60% of cost of goods sold) along with broadly falling commodity prices; ROAE (%) 25.5 21.5 19.8 18.7 (2) Potential improvement in refrigerator sales to beef up revenue from distribution & services; and (3) Better-than-expected growth momentum Earnings Rev (%): (6) (11) (14) of e-commerce & logistics, especially for small freight and cold-chain Consensus EPS (RMB) 1.03 1.13 1.30 logistics subsequent to acquisitions of Fujian Shengfeng Logistics and Other Broker Recs: B: 10 S: 0 H: 1 Shanghai Grand Logistics. ICB Industry: Consumer Goods At A Glance ICB Sector: Household Goods Issued Capital (m shrs) 2,794 Principal Business: Among the leading manufacturers & distributors Mkt. Cap (HK$m/US$m) 35,817 / 4,621 of home appliances in China Major Shareholders Source of all data: Company, DBSV, Thomson Reuters, HKEX Haier Group Corporation (%) 56.2 HCH (HK) Inv. Mgmt. Co. Ltd (%) 12.1 Free Float (%) 31.8 3m Avg. Daily Val. (US$m) 13.0 www.dbsvickers.com sa- CW Company Focus Haier Electronics INVESTMENT THESIS Profile Rationale Haier Electronics stands as the leading washing machine / Expanded into downstream for better growth prospects water heater manufacturer in China. Since 2010, the Haier has increasingly expanded into the downstream for company has expanded downstream to operate distribution, better growth prospects. logistics, after-sales services and e-commerce (i.e. e-Haier and collaborations with Tmall and JD.com) to expedite growth. Riding on its unparalleled network in the rural markets, we believe the company stands to be a long-term winner in this area. Valuation Risks Our target price is based on 15x 12-mth rolling price to Slower demand, raw material price fluctuations, weak earnings ratio (PE). property market Aside from intensifying competition, an unexpected slowdown in the demand for white goods; fluctuations in raw material prices such as steel and plastics; and potentially weakened sales trend in the property market of China that could affect on-going demand for home appliances might all affect Haier’s fundamental performance. Source: DBS Vickers Page 2 Company Focus Haier Electronics PE band chart PB band chart Share Price (HK$) Share Price (HK$) 8.8x 6.8x 60 4.7x 37x 30 50 25 28x 40 20 2.7x 30 20x 15 20 10 11x 10 5 0.6x 2x 0 0 Jul-13 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jun-12 Feb-08 Apr-10 Sep-15 Jul-13 Aug-14 Mar-09 May-11 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jun-12 Feb-08 Apr-10 Sep-15 Mar-09 Aug-14 May-11 Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers Peer Table Mkt 15F 16F Currency Price Cap F iscal PE P/Sales Yield P/Bk ROE PE P/Sales Yield P/Bk ROE Company Name Code Local$ US$m Yr x x % x % x x % x % Haier Electronics*^ 1169 HK HKD 12.82 4,621 Dec 9.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 21.5 8.2 0.4 1.2 1.5 19.8 Home appliance manufacturer Chigo Holding 449 HK HKD 0.126 137 Dec n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Skyworth Digital*# 751 HK HKD 5.2 1,921 Mar 7.4 0.3 3.3 1.0 13.2 6.5 0.3 3.7 0.9 13.4 TCL Multimedia*^ 1070 HK HKD 3.82 661 Dec 14.8 0.1 2.7 1.0 9.6 12.2 0.1 3.1 1.0 10.4 Welling Holding 382 HK HKD 1.31 484 Dec n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. HK-listed stocks average 11.1 0.2 3.0 1.0 11.4 9.3 0.2 3.4 0.9 11.9 Midea Group 000333 CH CNY 27.9 18,687 Dec 9.3 0.8 4.8 2.4 26.8 7.9 0.7 5.5 2.0 26.1 GREE Electrical 000651 CH CNY 17.85 16,860 Dec 6.9 0.8 7.2 2.0 30.1 6.1 0.7 8.1 1.7 29.1 Hisense Elec. 600060 CH CNY 15.62 3,209 Dec 13.2 0.7 2.2 1.7 12.8 11.8 0.6 2.5 1.5 12.7 Konka Group 000016 CH CNY 30.16 5,702 Dec 164.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Qingdao Haier 600690 CH CNY 10.01 9,624 Dec 11.4 0.7 2.8 2.3 20.8 9.8 0.6 3.3 1.9 20.4 Wuxi Little Swan 000418 CH CNY 20.4 2,026 Dec 15.2 1.0 2.2 2.5 16.9 12.7 0.9 2.6 2.1 17.4 Hisense Kelon 000921 CH CNY 8.84 1,891 Dec 9.4 0.4 4.4 2.7 19.0 8.1 0.1 5.1 2.2 17.2 Sichuan Changhong Elec. 600839 CH CNY 6.96 5,045 Dec 116.0 0.5 0.1 2.2 1.9 77.3 3.8 0.1 2.2 2.8 A share stocks average 36.8 0.8 3.8 2.2 21.5 9.7 0.7 4.4 1.9 21.1 # FY15: FY16; FY16: FY17 ^ Core EPS Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS Vickers Page 3 Company Focus Haier Electronics Segmental Breakdown (RMB m) FY Dec 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Revenues (RMB m) Manufacturing of 14,222 14,868 15,580 16,280 16,962 washing machines Manufacturing of water 4,358 4,545 4,744 4,938 5,125 heaters Integrated Channel 57,568 62,233 59,808 61,664 64,811 Services (ICS) Intersegment eliminations (13,884) (14,511) (15,237) (15,999) (16,798) Total 62,263 67,134 64,895 66,883 70,100 Segmental profit (RMB m) Manufacturing of 1,241 1,352 1,572 1,724 1,881 washing machines Manufacturing of water 479 534 605 659 715 heaters Integrated Channel 1,050 1,255 1,326 1,552 1,826 Services (ICS) Intersegment eliminations N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Total 2,770 3,141 3,503 3,936 4,422 Segmental profit Margins (%) Manufacturing of 8.7 9.1 10.1 10.6 11.1 washing machines Manufacturing of water 11.0 11.7 12.7 13.3 13.9 heaters Integrated Channel 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 Services (ICS) Intersegment eliminations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 4.4 4.7 5.4 5.9 6.3 Source: Company, DBS Vickers Page 4 Company Focus Haier Electronics Income Statement (RMB m) Margins Trend FY Dec 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F 7.0% Revenue 62,263 67,134 64,895 66,883 70,100 6.5% Cost of Goods Sold (53,126) (57,292) (54,814) (56,346) (58,915) 6.0% Gross Profit 9,138 9,842 10,082 10,538 11,185 5.5% Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (6,511) (6,834) (6,681) (6,757) (6,913) 5.0% Operating Profit 2,626 3,008 3,400 3,780 4,271 4.5% Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0 4.0% Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 0 3.5% Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 11 158 141 203 250 3.0% Dividend Income 0 0 0 0 0 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0 Operating Margin % Net Income Margin % Pre-tax Profit 2,638 3,166 3,541 3,983 4,521 Tax (548) (651) (710) (815) (943) Minority Interest (53) (68) (85) (104) (130) Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 2,037 2,447 2,746 3,064 3,448 Net Profit before Except.
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