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Sector Research | China Home Appliance THIS IS THE TRANSLATION OF A REPORT ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN CHINESE BY GUOSEN SECURITIES CO., LTD ON SEPTEMBER 24, 2012 October 16, 2012 Home Appliance Cautious Buy Cherry pick home-appliance names amid the price corrections Investment highlights Analyst Wang Nianchun We expect home-appliance y-o-y sales volume growth to rebound moderately +755-82130407 in 4Q 2012. Based on our channel checks and data already released for Jul-Aug [email protected] S0980510120027 2012, 3Q sales volume of various sub-sectors was in line with expectations, and the profitability of the TV sub-sector slightly beat expectations. The subsidies for energy efficient home-appliance products introduced in June are unlikely to materially boost sales until three to six months after their launch. We expect the 4Q y-o-y sales Sales Contact volume growth of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and LCD TVs will be 7.5%, 5.8%, 5.0% and 0.8% respectively, representing a modest rebound from the Roger Chiman Managing Director first three quarters. +852 2248 3598 [email protected] Divergence within the sector intensifies, and we suggest waiting for buying Chris Berney opportunities amid price pullbacks. The overall industry sentiment has been tepid Managing Director +852 2248 3568 since the beginning of 2012, but product-mix upgrade and lower material costs could lead [email protected] to an improvement in profitability this year. Based on our estimates, subsidy policies for Andrew Collier energy efficient home-appliance products will have more significant effects in 2013 than Director +852 2248 3528 this year. Some high-quality companies still enjoy clear growth prospects, although the [email protected] entire sector is under significant pressure. We suggest using price corrections to buy high-quality stocks. Joe Chan Director +852 2248 3578 [email protected] Risk factors. 1) The growth momentum of home-appliance sales volume could miss expectations, while the room for profit growth is also squeezed in 2013. 2) Home- Cancy Kong Vice President appliance consumption in rural areas could be disappointing in 1H 2013, after the +852 2248 3538 [email protected] rural home appliance subsidy programme expires at the end of 2012. Cecilia Liu Associate We maintain a “Cautious Buy” rating on the home-appliance sector, and +852 2248 3588 [email protected] believe high-quality companies are good investment choices. With divergence among companies rising, and the importance of brand image increasing compared to Gary Wong Analyst sales channels, companies enjoying advantages in terms of innovation will have +852 2248 3548 stronger pricing power, and high-quality companies with low valuations should be [email protected] good investment choices. The key is to enter the market when stock prices fall to low Ma Ning levels. Sales Assistant +852 2248 3536 Companies trading at low valuations with clear growth prospects: Gree Electric and [email protected] Qingdao Haier; undervalued companies with improvement in financial results: Zhejiang Supor and Rongshida Sanyo; companies with good business models and expected to enjoy steady profit growth in 2013: Hisense Electric, Robam Appliances and Homa Appliance; we also suggest to hold Shenzhen Mtc. Exhibit 1: Earnings forecasts and ratings Stock Price Market cap. EPS PE (x) Company Rating code (RMB) (RMB mn) 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 000651 Gree Electric Buy 20.390 61,330 2.20 2.61 9.2 600690 Qingdao Haier Buy 10.570 28,382 1.22 1.39 8.7 002508 Robam Appliances Cautious Buy 17.100 4,378 0.93 1.17 18.5 002032 Zhejiang Supor Cautious Buy 10.870 6,902 0.78 0.91 14.0 600060 Hisense Electric Buy 9.460 12,329 1.15 1.34 8.2 Source: Wind, Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1 Bespoke translation by Guosen Securities (HK) strictly for use by its clients only. Home Appliance Sector October 16, 2012 | China THIS IS THE TRANSLATION OF A REPORT ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN CHINESE BY GUOSEN SECURITIES CO., LTD ON SEPTEMBER 24, 2012 1 We expect home-appliance companies to see y-o-y sales volume growth rebound in 4Q12, but only moderately 1.1 Home-appliance stocks benefited from growing profitability and favourable government policies in 1H 2012 In retrospect, as of July 2012, except washing machine exports and LCD TV exports recorded growth of 14% and 8% respectively, all other sub-sectors witnessed negative growth in both exports and the sales volume in the domestic market during the first seven months of this year. Yet, home-appliance companies’ profit growth exceeded income growth due to the three reasons: 1. Raw material costs declined from a year earlier. 2. A shift of business focus onto profit led a number of home-appliance makers to raise selling prices for both export and domestic markets. 3. Home-appliance companies worked to upgrade their product mix. Coupled with the following three catalysts, the home-appliance sector outperformed the broad market over Jan-May: 1. The valuations of home-appliance stocks were relatively low at the beginning of this year. 2. Results of high-growth companies met market expectations. 3. Subsidy policies for energy efficient home appliances materialised. Exhibit 2: Comparison of home-appliance companies’ profit growth over Jan-Mar 2012 and over Jan-Jul by sub-sector 1Q 2012 2012 Jan-July Prime Prime Y-o-y Y-o-y Y-o-y Profit Y-o-y operating Profit operating growth growth growth (RMB growth revenue (RMB mn) revenue rate rate rate bn) rate (RMB bn) (RMB bn) Home electrical appliance 226.874 5.08% 9,242 24.25% 613.2 6.25% 27.8 20.75% manufacturing Home refrigerating appliances 55.28 6.44% 1,718 11.27% 146.8 6.66% 5.9 9.24% manufacturing Home air conditioner manufacturing 80.463 2.48% 4,248 38.11% 231.7 5.66% 13.1 37.06% Home kitchen appliances 30.078 5.03% 642 41.58% 76.8 6.04% 2.3 22.74% manufacturing Home cleaning appliances 23.221 7.30% 1,383 20.25% 56.7 10.86% 2.7 9.42% manufacturing Home beauty & health care appliance 5.386 17.54% 153 -17.42% 14 8.44% 0.4 -28.09% manufacturing Home appliance components 14.259 5.60% 464 1.30% 38 6.13% 1.4 -8.14% manufacturing Lighting equipment manufacturing 64.059 16.71% 3,642 19.76% 165.2 15.66% 9.1 19.30% Power supply equipment 22.522 19.66% 1,652 17.98% 55.5 21.86% 3.7 24.90% manufacturing Lighting equipment manufacturing 34.726 17.64% 1,773 27.20% 91.2 14.63% 4.7 20.03% Source: Wind, Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute Guosen Securities (HK) 2 Bespoke translation by Guosen Securities (HK) strictly for use by its clients only Home Appliance Sector October 16, 2012 | China THIS IS THE TRANSLATION OF A REPORT ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN CHINESE BY GUOSEN SECURITIES CO., LTD ON SEPTEMBER 24, 2012 1.2 3Q12 sales volume of various sub-sectors expected to be in line with expectations, while the profitability of the TV sub-sector slightly beat expectations Based on our channel checks and data for various sub-sectors already released for Jul-Aug 2012, we believe the 3Q12 sales volume growth of various sub-sectors was in line with expectations. TV makers should have seen their domestic sales recover moderately over Jul-Sep, we believe. Given improvement in domestic sales, the profitability of TV makers should have enjoyed q-o-q increase. 1.3 Sales volume growth expected to rebound moderately in 4Q12 China’s home-appliance makers need time to deal with or offload energy-inefficient work-in-process and finished products in distribution channels after the subsidy programme for energy efficient home appliances were launched in June. As such, we estimate the effects of subsidy programmes would come into full play after a 3-6 month period, during which home-appliance makers could embark on adjusting their product mix, marketing new models and realigning marketing strategies. We forecast the sales volume growth of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and LCD TV sets will be 7.5%, 5.8%, 5.0% and 0.8% respectively for 4Q, representing a modest rebound from the first three quarters. We expect China’s white-goods exports to have grown by 2-3% and LCD TV exports by about 2% in 3Q. Exhibit 3: Y-o-y export growth of four home-appliance sub-sectors by quarter (%) 1Q 2Q 3Q forecast 4Q forecast Air conditioner -4.1% -8.1% -10.9% 7.5% Refrigerator -6.7% -12.3% -0.6% 5.8% Washing machine -6.2% -3.3% -5.5% 5.0% LCD TV -5.2% 4.4% 6.5% 0.8% Source: ChinaIOL.com, Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute We expect China’s domestic sales volume of small home appliances would be up 5% y-o-y. Overall, various home appliance subsectors will see sales volume rebound moderately in 4Q12, in our view. Exhibit 4: Y-o-y increase in the exports of various home-appliance products in 2012 by quarter (%) 1Q 2Q 3Q forecast 4Q forecast Air conditioner -6.8% -5.3% -4.8% 1.5% Refrigerator 0.4% 7.1% -1.3% 2.8% Washing machine 18.2% 13.6% 6.8% 2.1% LCD TV 7.9% 13.6% -3.9% 2.1% Source: ChinaIOL.com, Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute Guosen Securities (HK) 3 Bespoke translation by Guosen Securities (HK) strictly for use by its clients only Home Appliance Sector October 16, 2012 | China THIS IS THE TRANSLATION OF A REPORT ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN CHINESE BY GUOSEN SECURITIES CO., LTD ON SEPTEMBER 24, 2012 Exhibit 5: The y-o-y growth in air conditioner exports and Exhibit 6: The y-o-y growth in refrigerator exports and domestic sales volume in 2011 and
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  • Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund Annual Report October 31, 2020

    Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund Annual Report October 31, 2020

    Annual Report | October 31, 2020 Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund See the inside front cover for important information about access to your fund’s annual and semiannual shareholder reports. Important information about access to shareholder reports Beginning on January 1, 2021, as permitted by regulations adopted by the Securities and Exchange Commission, paper copies of your fund’s annual and semiannual shareholder reports will no longer be sent to you by mail, unless you specifically request them. Instead, you will be notified by mail each time a report is posted on the website and will be provided with a link to access the report. If you have already elected to receive shareholder reports electronically, you will not be affected by this change and do not need to take any action. You may elect to receive shareholder reports and other communications from the fund electronically by contacting your financial intermediary (such as a broker-dealer or bank) or, if you invest directly with the fund, by calling Vanguard at one of the phone numbers on the back cover of this report or by logging on to vanguard.com. You may elect to receive paper copies of all future shareholder reports free of charge. If you invest through a financial intermediary, you can contact the intermediary to request that you continue to receive paper copies. If you invest directly with the fund, you can call Vanguard at one of the phone numbers on the back cover of this report or log on to vanguard.com. Your election to receive paper copies will apply to all the funds you hold through an intermediary or directly with Vanguard.