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JS Global Lifestyle (1691 4 Feb 2020 CMB International Securities | Equity Research JS Global Lifestyle (1691 HK) BUY (Initiation) Cross -selling with world-class tech and style Target Price HK$7.65 Up/Downside +48.0% Current Price HK$5.17 JS Global is the 3rd/ 2nd largest in China/ US with 8.8%/ 8.1% small appliance market share. JS global has three major brands (Joyoung, Shark and Ninja) which focus on cleaning, food preparation and cooking appliances, and generated a sales of USD 2.7bn and net profit of USD 112mn in FY18. China Home Appliance Sector Emphasis on R&D to solve consumers’ pain points. JS Global is dedicated on R&D and innovation as solving consumer pain point is a proven growth Walter Woo driver. In FY18, it spent ~USD 119mn on R&D, ~4.4% of sales (peers’ avg. is (852) 3761 8776 4.9%), and had a team of ~800, ~20% of total (peers’ avg. is 12%). We believe [email protected] recent launches: revolutionary products - 1) Multifunctional steamer S5 (2019), 2) Ninja Foodi series (2018) and evolutionary products - 3) Premium soymilk Stock Data maker K-series, 4) High-performance multifunctional blender Y88 (2019), 5) Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) 17,615 Robot vacuum Shark ION (2017) can boost growth in FY18-21E. Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) 6.80 52w High/Low (HK$) 5.95/4.69 Cross-selling in product, region, price point. Acquisition of SharkNinja in Total Issued Shares (mn) 3,407.2 2017, in our view, can unlock huge potential by leveraging existing products Source: Bloomberg and sales network, like: 1) expanding Shark & Ninja into rest of the world (e.g. EU, Japan, Australia) and China, 2) selling Foodi series in EU, vacuum & robot Shareholding Structure cleaners in China, 3) penetrating into high-end segment in China with Shark. Mr. Wang Xuning (Chairman) 57.88% & concert party Ample room for efficiency boost and cost synergies. These can be Mr. Mark Adam Barrocas 2.14% derived from: 1) sharing of supply chain between Joyoung and SharkNinja and CDH Fund 10.61% 2) sharing of R&D resources (patents, functions and expertise), etc.., driving RSU Holding entity 4.16% SharkNinja’s segment EBIT margin to 8.8% in FY21E (vs 5.4% in FY18). Mr. Mark Rosenzweig 8.06% Other SN investors 0.29% Ways to tackle pressure from China-US trade disputes. In our view, Free Float 16.87% SharkNinja’s GP margin will be suppressed in FY19E-20E due to US’ import Source: HKEx tariff. However, it will be partly offset by positive factors like 1) CNY depreciation and counter measures such as 2) value reengineering by using Share Performance cheaper components, 3) raising retail ASP and 4) diversifying from China Absolute Relative (boosting overseas sales and supplies), etc. 1-mth -10.7% -3.2% 3-mth n/a n/a We forecast a 13%/ 29% sales/ adj. net profit CAGR in FY18-21E. Drivers 6-mth n/a n/a are: more SharkNinja, more cleaning appliances and more contribution from 12-mth n/a n/a EU and China. We forecast stable GP margin in FY19E-20E, then a jump in Source: Bloomberg FY21E due to better product mix and brand mix, while net profit margin to improve more in FY20E-21E, thanks to lower A&P, D&A and finance costs. 12-mth Price Performance (HK$) Stock HSI Initiate BUY with TP of HK$ 7.65. Our TP for JS Global is based on 16.0x 6.1 FY20E adj. P/E, 14%/ 13% discounts to China/ Int’l small appliances peers’ average of 18.7x/ 18.4x, despite its: 1) global leadership in small appliance, 2) 5.7 superior R&D capability and 3) strong turnaround ahead for SharkNinja driven 5.3 by synergies and robust product pipeline. The TP also implied a 0.77x 3 years adj. PEG, comparing to China/ Int’l peers’ median of 2.0x/ 1.4x. The stock is 4.9 trading at 10.8x FY20E adj. P/E or 0.52x PEG, which we think is attractive. 4.5 17/12/19 27/12/19 6/1/20 16/1/20 26/1/20 Earnings Summary Source: Bloomberg (YE 31 Dec) FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenue (USD mn) 1,103 1,563 2,682 2,996 3,411 3,853 Auditor: Ernst & Young YoY growth (%) n.a. 41.7 71.5 11.7 13.8 13.0 Adj. NP att. (USD mn) 44 54 60 155 213 260 Operating profit = Revenue - Costs of Adj. EPS (USD) 0.013 0.016 0.018 0.045 0.061 0.075 sales + Other income and gains - Selling YoY growth (%) n.a. 22.5 12.3 152.4 37.6 21.8 and distribution expenses - Adj. P/E (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. 14.9 10.8 8.9 Administrative expenses. P/B (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.2 2.0 1.6 Yield (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7 1.7 3.4 ROE (%) 8.0 8.1 7.5 5.4 9.9 14.3 Net gearing (%)* Net cash 166.6 213.6 37.0 17.6 Net cash Source: Company data, CMBIS estimates, *net debt (cash) / equity PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 1 ACCESS KEY TO OUR REPORTS ON BLOOMBERG: CMBR 4 Feb 2020 Contents Investment Thesis .................................................................................... 3 Focus Charts and Tables ........................................................................ 4 Company Background ............................................................................. 5 A global, high-quality, innovative small household appliance leader. ................ 5 Shark on cleaning, Joyoung & Ninja on food prepration & cooking. .................. 5 Company’s key positives and growth drivers ....................................... 7 1) Emphasis on R&D to solve consumers’ pain points ......................................... 7 2) Cross-selling in region, product, price point to fuel growth ..........................21 3) Substantial room for efficiency boost and cost synergies .............................30 4) Ways to tackle pressure from China-US trade disputes .................................33 Industry Analysis ................................................................................... 36 1) Small appliances is still under developed (vs large appliances) ...................36 2) Various sub-segments are still enjoying rapid growth ...................................38 3) Ample room for e-commerce to grow, in both China and US .........................40 Peers Comparison ................................................................................. 41 Assumptions .......................................................................................... 42 Financial Analysis .................................................................................. 43 We forecast sales growth of 12%/ 14%/ 13% YoY in FY19E/ 20E/ 21E ...............43 We expect adj. NP att. growth of 34%/ 32%/ 21% YoY in FY19E/ 20E/ 21E. .......46 Balance sheet and Cash flow .................................................................................53 Valuation ................................................................................................. 55 Peers Valuation ........................................................................................................55 Initiate BUY on JS Global with TP of HK$ 7.65 (~16.0x FY20E adj. P/E) ............56 Sharehoding Structure .......................................................................... 59 Management Profile ............................................................................... 59 Awards and Recognitions ..................................................................... 60 Key Risks ................................................................................................ 61 Financial Summary ................................................................................ 62 Apprendix ............................................................................................... 63 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 ACCESS KEY TO OUR REPORTS ON BLOOMBERG: CMBR 4 Feb 2020 Investment Thesis A global, high-quality, innovative small household appliance leader. JS Global Lifestyle is a leader in the small appliance space, according to Frost & Sullivan, it has ranked the 6th/ 3rd/ 2nd largest in the world/ China/ US with market shares of 4.5%/ 8.8%/ 8.1% in FY18. It has sales of USD 2.68bn and net profit/ net profit att. of USD 112mn/ 35mn in FY18. It mainly owns 3 brands, namely Joyoung, Ninja which focus on food preparation and cooking appliances while Shark focuses on cleaning appliances. In particular, it has dominant positions in various products: High-performance Multifunctional blenders (#1) and Food processors (#1) in China, as well as Vacuums (#1), Robotic vacuums (#2), Steam mops (#2) and Multifunctional cookers (#2) in US, in FY18. Emphasis on R&D to solve consumers’ pain points. Solving consumer pain points is a proven growth driver and JS Global did invest a lot in R&D to achieve that. Successes of revolutionary products like Joyoung’s filter-free soy milk maker (2014) and Ninja’s Foodi (2018), evolutionary products like Shark’s Duo Clean vacuums (2016) are great examples. It spent ~USD 119mn on R&D, ~4.4% of sales in FY18 (peers’ avg. is 3.1%), while its R&D team consists of ~800 employees, ~20% of total (peers’ avg. is 12%). Recent launches: revolutionary products - 1) Multifunctional steamer S5 (2019), 2) Ninja Foodi series (2018) and evolutionary products - 3) Premium soymilk maker K-series, 4) High-performance multifunctional blender Y88 (2019), 5) Robot vacuum Shark ION (2017), in our view, should spark a new round of growth in FY18-21E. Cross-selling in product, region, price point to fuel growth. In our view, growth can be driven by just leveraging Joyoung, Shark and Ninja’s existing products and sales network, such as: 1) expanding Shark & Ninja into rest of the world (e.g. EU, Japan, Australia) and China, 2) selling Foodi series in EU, vacuum & robot cleaners in China, 3) penetrating into high-end segment
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