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Initiation Report Initiation Report www.arthasekuritas.com 18 April 2019 SIDO: Organic Growth Through Tapping International Markets We initiate buy recommendation for Sido Muncul (SIDO) with target price of Rp1,160/shares. We believe SIDO will gain momentum and has the potential to BUY increase its market share due to the following factors: 1) By expanding its market base internationally through Philippines and Nigeria. These exports of products 1 Yr Target Price : Rp 1,160 will mostly be realized at the end of this year in 2019; 2) GPM FY18 widening to 51.55% (+552 bps) due to better manufacturing technological capabilities by Last Price : Rp 1,005 having higher extraction yield; 3) Utilizing COD 2 new manufacturing machinery Upside/Downside : +15.42% to increase capacity production from 80 million to 180 million sachets per month. Company Profile Higher GPM due to an increase in yield from raw materials extraction. SIDO have (www.sidomuncul.com) been able to achieve YoY% reduction in COGS/Revenue over the past few years. In 2014, PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Tbk COGS/Revenue % was around 62% and by end of 2018, it came all the way down to 48% (SIDO) is an Indonesian-based company positively affecting bottom line. This is due to better extraction yield of production engaged in operations specializing in herbal processes and achieving economies of scale. We expect this trend to continue modestly medicines, pharmacies, land transportation with the new production facility of Cairan Obat Dalam (COD) 2 progressing towards and agriculture. SIDO sells herbal medicine 100% utilization rate of producing 100 million sachets per month. such as Tolak Angin and energy drink such as Kuku Bima. Other products include herbal Potential 3-5% sales growth from exports to Nigeria and Philippines in 2019. We candy, raw herbal products like turmeric, expect SIDO to have an increase in revenue due to exporting of products. In Nigeria, SIDO ginger, guava leaf and other food supplements. have exported Kuku Bima drinks as shipments have started in April 2019 and will be on SIDO owns 1 company in Semarang, produce retailers by June 2019. In Philippines, SIDO have already exported Tolak Angin products 300 different types of products, have 109 sub- and in the hands of retailers in late of 2018. The products have been sold out and distributors and more than 160,000 positively accepted by the market. Management is trying to boost production with new wholesalers in Indonesia. Capacity production reaches 3.8 billion units per year and products production facility COD 2 and prematurely send future expected packages 3 months in are exported to 17 different nations. advance due to high demand. Consistent dividend payout ratio of above 80% for the past 5 years. SIDO’s revenue Market Cap Rp 15.1 tn for 2018 have grown to Rp 2,76 tn (+7.36% YoY) and net income to Rp 664 bn (+24.36% Enterprise Value Rp 14.3 tn YoY). Dividend per share for 2018 increased to 29 (+11.54% YoY). Additionally, the Current Shares Outstanding 15.0 bn Price to Sales (TTM) 5.46 company is capable of growing organically every year consistently while maintaining its Price to Book Value 5.19 profits without having any long-term debts in the company. Current PE (Annualised) 22.71 Current PE (TTM) 22.71 Undervalued, forward PER 19F lower than peers. We value SIDO using mixed DCF, Free Cash Flow (TTM) Rp 599 bn DDM and PER Comps with a target price of Rp 1,160/share. This price target reflects EV to EBIT (TTM) 17.67 forward PER 19F at 24x. Compared to its peers KLBF and KAEF, their current PER (TTM) is at 28.5x and 43.4x respectively. Major Shareholders Figure 1. Financial Highlights (In Millions Rp) PT. Hotel Candi Baru 81.00% Year 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F Public 19.00% Revenue 2,573,840 2,763,292 3,070,345 3,379,249 3,686,864 GP 1,184,701 1,424,391 1,627,297 1,830,724 2,031,166 Price Performance OP 640,236 824,331 924,960 1,063,303 1,205,960 EBT 681,889 867,837 967,125 1,103,255 1,249,537 1 Month Price Returns (%) : -1.5% Net Income 533,799 663,849 735,015 838,473 949,648 1 Year Price Returns (%) : 33.1% Key Ratios YTD Performance (%) : 19.6% EPS 35.9 44.6 49.4 56.3 63.8 52 Weeks Highest Price : Rp 1070 GP Margin 46.03% 51.55% 53.00% 54.18% 55.09% OPM 24.87% 29.83% 30.13% 31.47% 32.71% 52 Weeks Lowest Price : Rp 675 NPM 20.74% 24.02% 23.94% 24.81% 25.76% RoA 16.90% 19.89% 21.11% 22.40% 24.08% RoE 18.43% 22.87% 24.10% 26.06% 27.87% Research Analyst Source: Company, ASI Forecast Research Team Contact: [email protected] 1 Well-Established Brand Name In Herbal Medicine Market Tolak Angin Sido Muncul is the industrial leader in terms of herbal medicine in colds/common cold segment. It owns 53.1% of the whole common cold market in terms of statistics surveyed done by Top Brand Award. With a dominant market share and market leader in the industry, price point is inelastic selling in both GT and MT trades. Other than Tolak Angin, SIDO also have a substantial market share in the F&B products for Kuku Bima brand such as: Kuku Bima Ginseng Coffee, Kuku Bima Ener-G and Kuku Bima TL. With a strong dominant position and strong brand name, SIDO continues to grow and innovate in multiple different ways while maintaining strong margins. Figure 2. Obat Masuk Angin Figure 3. Obat Kuat Pria Brand Top Brand Index Brand Top Brand Index Kuku Bima TL 84.2% Tolak Angin Sido Muncul 53.1% Neo Hormovitan Pasak Bumi 7.9% Antangin 38.9% Irex 2.3% Bintang Toedjoe 4.5% King Cobra 1.8% Source: Top Brand Award Source: Top Brand Award Figure 4. Kopi Ginseng Figure 5. Minuman Penambah Tenaga (Non-Cair) Brand Top Brand Index Brand Top Brand Index CNI 30.2% Extra Joss 60.5% Kapal Api Susu Ginseng 29.3% Kuku Bima 15.6% Hemaviton Jreng 17.2% Joa Kopi Ginseng 13.7% Kuku Bima Ener-G 13.8% Source: Top Brand Award Source: Top Brand Award Higher Demand Due To An Increase In Aging Population As the growth of population increases substantially in Indonesia, the current population is also aging over the next 25 years. Data by UNFPA shows that over the next 25 years, Indonesia will be gradually growing at about 1.38% per annum in 2010-2015 period and 0.72% per annum in 2030- 2035 period. As both the educated and aging population in Indonesia increases, we believe the demand for preventive/curative medicine will follow through. This factor will benefit SIDO as one of the largest producer of preventive/curative herbal cold medicine. Figure 6. Indonesia Age Pyramids, 2010 and 2035 Source: UNFPA 2 Strategical Expansion Realized In 2019 In late 2018, SIDO has already started the export of Tolak Angin under the name “Tulak Hangin” into Philippines. It was first marketed and introduced by Kris Aquino, the 11th Philippines president’s daughter and a famous public figure who does talk show host, actress and also a producer. Additionally, it was also advertised heavily by Manny Pacquiao who was a famous world class boxer “PacMan” and also the current senator of Philippines. The demand for Tolak Angin was way above expectations and products were sold out not long after distribution. Thus, SIDO has to rush 3 months earlier in the distribution processes and start to ramp up export 3 months earlier using future expected inventories. With the help of new production facility COD2 maximizing its utility rate to around 60% this year, we expect strong revenue growth. Figure 7. Kris Aquino Figure 8. 2016 Manny Pacquiao Source: Detik News Source: Indo Berita Moreover, SIDO have already exported Kuku Bima drinks to Nigeria this April 2019. It will be in the hands of retailers in Nigeria by June 2019. With product penetration towards a large market potential in Nigeria, SIDO has established Muncul Nigeria Limited as a subsidiary of the company in Nigeria last year on January 2018. We can expect potential growth of revenues from both Philippines and Nigeria in the fiscal year of 2019. Financial Breakdown Figure 9. Sales Breakdown Figure 10. Revenue & EPS Trends 100% 4,000,000 63.7 70 90% 56.3 3,500,000 60 80% 31% 30% 29% 28% 27% 49.4 3,000,000 44.6 70% 35.9 50 2,500,000 60% 40 50% 2,000,000 30 40% 1,500,000 66% 67% 68% 69% 70% 30% 20 1,000,000 20% 10 10% 500,000 0% 0 0 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F Herbal Medicine Food & Beverages Pharmacies Revenue (In Mn Rp) EPS Source: Company, ASI Forecast Source: Company, ASI Forecast 3 Figure 11. Gross Profit Margin by Segment Figure 12. ROA & ROE 70% 63% 64% 65% 65% 30% 27.81% 56% 26.07% 60% 22.87% 24.10% 25% 18.43% 22.73% 24.23% 50% 19.89% 21.09% 20% 16.90% 40% 30% 31% 32% 15% 30% 27% 29% 10% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0% 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F Herbal Medicine Food & Beverages Pharmacies ROA ROE Source: Company, ASI Forecast Source: Company, ASI Forecast SIDO’s majority market penetration is in herbal medicine contributing to around 67% of total revenue while F&B market covers around 30% for 2018.
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