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2021 Year Ahead
2021 YEAR AHEAD Claudio Brocado Anthony Brocado January 29, 2021 1 2020 turned out to be quite unusual. What may the year ahead and beyond bring? As the year got started, the consensus was that a strong 2019 for equities would be followed by a positive first half, after which meaningful volatility would kick in due to the US presidential election. In the spirit of our prefer- ence for a contrarian stance, we had expected somewhat the opposite: some profit-taking in the first half of 2020, followed by a rally that would result in a positive balance at year-end. But in the way of the markets – which always tend to catch the largest number of participants off guard – we had what some would argue was one of the strangest years in recent memory. 2 2020 turned out to be a very eventful year. The global virus crisis (GVC) brought about by the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic was something no serious market observer had anticipated as 2020 got started. Volatility had been all but nonexistent early in what we call ‘the new 20s’, which had led us to expect the few remaining volatile asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies, to benefit from the search for more extreme price swings. We had expected volatilities across asset classes to show some convergence. The markets delivered, but not in the direction we had expected. Volatilities surged higher across many assets, with the CBOE volatility index (VIX) reaching some of the highest readings in many years. As it became clear that what was commonly called the novel coronavirus would bring about a pandemic as it spread to the remotest corners of the world at record speeds, the markets feared the worst. -
UNIVERSITY of ANTWERP Faculty of Business and Economics City Campus Prinsstraat 13, B.226 B-2000 Antwerp Tel
DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT I like, therefore I am. Predictive modeling to gain insights in political preference in a multi-party system Stiene Praet, Peter Van Aelst & David Martens UNIVERSITY OF ANTWERP Faculty of Business and Economics City Campus Prinsstraat 13, B.226 B-2000 Antwerp Tel. +32 (0)3 265 40 32 Fax +32 (0)3 265 47 99 www.uantwerpen.be FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT I like, therefore I am. Predictive modeling to gain insights in political preference in a multi-party system Stiene Praet, Peter Van Aelst & David Martens RESEARCH PAPER 2018-014 DECEMBER 2018 University of Antwerp, City Campus, Prinsstraat 13, B-2000 Antwerp, Belgium Research Administration – room B.226 phone: (32) 3 265 40 32 fax: (32) 3 265 47 99 e-mail: [email protected] The research papers from the Faculty of Business and Economics are also available at www.repec.org (Research Papers in Economics - RePEc) D/2018/1169/014 I like, therefore I am. Predictive modeling to gain insights in political preference in a multi-party system Stiene Praeta, Peter Van Aelstb and David Martensa aDepartment of Engineering Management, University of Antwerp bDepartment of Political Science, University of Antwerp December 18, 2018 Abstract In political sciences there is a long tradition of trying to understand party prefer- ences and voting behavior to explain political decisions. Traditionally, scholars relied on voting histories, religious affiliation, and socio-economic status to understand peo- ple’s vote. Today, thanks to the Internet and social media, an unseen amount and granularity of data is available. -
REPORT on MEASURES to COMBAT DISCRIMINATION Directives 2000/43/EC and 2000/78/EC
European network of legal experts in the non-discrimination field REPORT ON MEASURES TO COMBAT DISCRIMINATION Directives 2000/43/EC and 2000/78/EC COUNTRY REPORT 2011 BELGIUM EMMANUELLE BRIBOSIA AND ISABELLE RORIVE State of affairs up to 1st January 2012 This report has been drafted for the European Network of Legal Experts in the Non-discrimination Field (on the grounds of Race or Ethnic Origin, Age, Disability, Religion or Belief and Sexual Orientation), established and managed by: Human European Consultancy Migration Policy Group Maliestraat 7 Rue Belliard 205, Box 1 3581 SH Utrecht 1040 Brussels Netherlands Belgium Tel +31 30 634 14 22 Tel +32 2 230 5930 Fax +31 30 635 21 39 Fax +32 2 280 0925 [email protected] [email protected] www.humanconsultancy.com www.migpolgroup.com All reports are available on the website of the European network of legal experts in the non-discrimination field: http://www.non-discrimination.net/law/national-legislation/country-reports-measures- combat-discrimination This report has been drafted as part of a study into measures to combat discrimination in the EU Member States, funded by the European Community Programme for Employment and Social Solidarity – PROGRESS (2007-2013). The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views or the official position of the European Commission. European network of legal experts in the non-discrimination field TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 4 0.1 The national legal system ........................................................................... 4 0.2 Overview/State of implementation .............................................................. 7 0.3 Case-law ................................................................................................... 25 1 GENERAL LEGAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................. 79 2 THE DEFINITION OF DISCRIMINATION ........................................................ -
Islamophobia, Xenophobia and the Climate of Hate
ISSN 1463 9696 Autumn 2006 • Bulletin No 57 EUROPEAN RACE BULLETIN Islamophobia, xenophobia and the climate of hate “It is not immigration that threatens our culture now, but nascent fascism and neo-Nazism, with the violence and intimidation that are associated with those political creeds.” Daphne Caruana Galizia, Maltese journalist Contents Preface 2 Racial violence 3 Islamophobia and xenophobia 16 National security, anti-terrorist measures and civil rights 26 The IRR is carrying out a European Race Audit supported by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. Specific research projects focus on the impact of national security laws and the war against terrorism on race relations and the impact of the EU’s new policy of ‘managed migration’ on refugee protection. The Institute of Race Relations is precluded from expressing a corporate view: any opinions expressed here are therefore those of the contributors. Please acknowledge IRR’s European Race Audit Project in any use of this work. For further information contact Liz Fekete at the Institute of Race Relations, 2-6 Leeke Street, London WC1X 9HS. Email: [email protected] © Institute of Race Relations 2006 Preface In this issue of the Bulletin, we document around eighty of the most serious incidents of racial violence that have taken place across Europe over the last eleven months. These attacks occurred as the war on terror heightened prejudices against Muslims and foreigners. As Islam has been essentialised (by commentators, politicians and the media) as inherently violent and migration has been depicted as a threat to national security, 'Muslim' has become synonymous with ‘terrorist’, and migrant and foreigner with ‘crime’. -
Who Is Leading the Campaign Charts? Comparing Individual Popularity on Old and New Media
Peter Van Aelst*, Patrick van Erkel*, Evelien Dheer**, Raymond Harder* (*University of Antwerp; ** Ghent University – iMinds – MICT) Paper prepared for the ECPR General Conference, 2014, Glasgow Work in progress Who is leading the campaign charts? Comparing individual popularity on old and new media Introduction Traditionally, election campaigns are won in the mass media. Candidates that can attract plenty of journalistic attention and appear most on television and in newspapers are mostly also those that perform well on Election Day. Candidates’ best bet, then, always used to be to aim for getting attention through these mass media outlets. The central query of this paper is whether this knowledge still holds to this day, when social media outlets are becoming ever more popular. Are candidates who are more active on social media also the ones that lead the traditional media charts? Or do we witness rather a tradeoff, in which candidates that invest more in digital campaigning are less prominent in the mass media? Finally, we are also interested in the electoral effect of social media. Does being active and successful on Twitter lead to more preferential votes for candidates? We test these conflicting hypotheses using data from the 2014 Belgian election campaign. We compare the attention of a large number of individual candidate gets in the traditional news media (represented here by newspapers) to their popularity, activities and impact on Twitter. In this way, we pair Twitter data with traditional media data, hence, take a “multi-platform” approach. In doing so, we meet one of the current shortcomings of social media research, which is precisely the lack of understanding of the multi-media ecology of information flows (Tufekci, 2014). -
Presidentialisation, Issue Attention and Negativity in Parties' Facebook A
Campaigning on- and off-line: different ballgames? Presidentialisation, issue attention and negativity in parties’ Facebook and newspaper ads in the 2019 Belgian general elections. Keywords: political advertising, Belgium, social media, newspapers, Facebook, campaign. CAMPAIGNING ON- AND OFF-LINE 2 This research note investigates Flemish parties’ advertising on social media (Facebook) and in the written press during the final campaign weeks of the May 2019 general elections in Belgium. Since people had to vote for the federal, regional and European parliament, the stakes for parties were high, and prior evidence suggests this was among others reflected in campaign spending of over €20 million. This research note deals with two broad questions. First, to what extent have parties embraced Facebook ads as a new campaign tool? There is ample research about how social media have gradually become a crucial aspect of political campaigning (Jungherr 2016; Kreiss and McGregor 2018). We compare what Flemish parties have spent on Facebook ads and to what extent this has gone at the expense of newspaper ads. In addition, based on ad metadata we present a basic analysis of the demographics of the groups that were exposed to social media advertisements. Second, we ask whether this form of online advertising is substantially changing the ways parties campaign. Based on a quantitative content analysis, we investigate several characteristics of parties’ campaign advertisements on Facebook and in newspapers. In this way, the content of a traditional offline campaign channel is contrasted with a relatively new channel that parties have added to their campaign toolkit. More concretely, we examine three aspects of the ads that are related to important topics in the campaign literature: the level of presidentialisation, the issues of the campaign, and the degree of negativity of the campaign ads. -
The Illicit Gun Market in Belgium: a Lethal Cocktail of Criminal Supply and Terrorist Demand BELGIUM
21 The illicit gun market in Belgium: A lethal cocktail of criminal supply and terrorist demand BELGIUM Nils Duquet and Kevin Goris In recent years Belgium has often been labelled one of Europe’s hotspots for illicit firearms, including military-grade assault rifles. Among other things, this label is a result of the evidence indicating that the terrorist networks responsible for the Paris attacks in 2015 acquired some of their firearms in Belgium. Belgium also has a historical reputation as being a ’gun country’ due to, among other things, hun- dreds of years of firearms production and related traditions, its lenient firearms leg- islation until 2006, and numerous export and trafficking scandals involving fire- arms. Yet, despite this reputation, very little academic or policy-oriented research has been undertaken on the size and dynamics of the illicit firearms market in Belgium in general and on terrorist access to this market in particular. In this chapter we will analyse the characteristics and dynamics of the illicit fire- arms market in Belgium, with a special focus on terrorist access to this market and the Belgian policy that has been developed in recent years to combat this security phenomenon. For this analysis we used a combination of quantitative and qualita- tive methods (see Box 1). This chapter on (terrorist access to) the illicit gun market in Belgium consists of three main sections and a conclusion. In the first section we examine Belgian national policy and legislation to combat the illicit firearms market in general and the functioning of and cooperation between the practitioners involved in this process in particular. -
Study on the Mechanisms and Processes of Participation in Extreme-Right Groups
Angry white rebel? Study on the mechanisms and processes of participation in extreme-right groups Doctoral dissertation submitted in order to obtain the academic degree of Doctor (PhD) in the criminological sciences Academic year 2015-2016 Doctoral student: Maarten De Waele Supervisors: Guidance committee: Prof. dr. Lieven Pauwels Prof. dr. Lieven Pauwels Prof. dr. Marleen Easton Prof. dr. Marleen Easton Prof. dr. Antoinette Verhage Prof. dr. Tore Bjørgo Dr. Jaap Van Donselaar Preface 3 Preface At the start of this dissertation, I would like to take the opportunity to thank the persons involved in this work. Looking back at the past four years, it is fair to state that this PhD period has been a tremendous valuable learning experience. Therefore, it would like to start with thanking those people who gave me the opportunity to work on this project. At first, I would like to thank the person who encouraged me to apply for the PhD position, namely the supervisor of my Master thesis Prof. Dr. Em. Paul Ponsaers. In this regard, I would like to thank Paul for having confidence in my abilities. Next, I would especially like to thank my supervisor Prof. Dr. Lieven Pauwels for his guidance and tremendous support throughout my PhD. I enormously appreciate the time he has spent to support me in my learning process. Furthermore, it would also like to thank my co-supervisor Prof. Dr. Marleen Easton for the useful discussions we had and the opportunities she has given me. Subsequently, I would like to thank Prof. Dr. Antoinette Verhage for her constructive comments and her support, especially during the qualitative part of this study. -
South America List of Political Parties
Manifesto Project Dataset: South America List of Political Parties [email protected] Website: https://manifesto-project.wzb.eu/ Version 2019b from December 17, 2019 Manifesto Project Dataset: South America - List of Political Parties Version 2019b 1 Coverage of the Dataset including Party Splits and Merges The Manifesto Data Collection: South America covers parliamentary and presidential elections in South America. The following list documents all the parties, candidates and elections contained in the dataset. The list includes the name of the party or (candidate) alliance in the original language and in English, the party/alliance abbreviation, the name of the presidential candidate (if this applies) as well as the corresponding party identification number. In the case of an alliance, it also documents the member parties it comprises. Within the list of alliance members, parties are represented only by their id and abbreviation if they are also part of the general party list. If the composition of an alliance has changed between elections this change is reported as well. If parliamentary and presidential elections occur at roughly the same time (not necessarily on the same date but within a time frame of one or two months) parties and candidates usually run on the same manifesto. In these cases we report the party/alliance that backed a candidate and the candidate’s name. The same information is provided for presidential elections. If a parliamentary election occurred independently from a presidential election we only report parties and alliances but no candidates. Furthermore, the list records renames of parties and alliances. It shows whether a party has split from another party or a number of parties has merged and indicates the name (and the party id if it exists) of this split or merger parties. -
1 Input to OHCHR Expert Workshops on Prohibition of Incitement To
Input to OHCHR Expert workshops on prohibition of incitement to national, racial or religious hatred while ensuring respect of the freedom of expression Addendum I. Europe ..........................................................................................................................3 1. Albania...........................................................................................................................3 1.1 Legislation prohibiting incitement to national, racial and religious hatred ...............3 2. Austria............................................................................................................................3 2.1 Legislation prohibiting incitement to national, racial and religious hatred ...............3 3. Azerbaijan......................................................................................................................4 3.1 Other information or observations in relation to the public discussion of both........4 4. Belgium..........................................................................................................................5 4.1. Legislation prohibiting incitement to national, racial and religious hatred ..............5 4.2 Other information or observations in relation to the public discussion of both........5 5. Bulgaria..........................................................................................................................8 5.1 Legislation prohibiting incitement to national, racial and religious hatred ...............8 5.2 Other information -
Download/Print the Study in PDF Format
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN BELGIUM 25th May 2014 European Elections monitor The Belgians are being called to the “election of all elections” on 25th May Corinne Deloy Translated by Helen Levy 8 million Belgians are being called to ballot on 25th May in what is called “the election of all elec- tions.” Indeed they will be electing the MPs, the Senators, and the regional representatives. Natio- nal MPs will be elected for 5 years (instead of 4 previously). The electoral reform which modified the federal electoral procedure is supposed to bring greater stability to Belgium. Analysis 129,139 Belgians living abroad are registered on the electoral rolls. Only 42,489 voted in the last parliamentary elections on 13th June 2010. Moreover polling stations will remain open for an extra hour, a measure allowed in the event of multiple elections. The elections on 13th June 2010 caused an electoral offer made by the N-VA”. “Placing the Socialist Party earthquake in Belgium. The New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) and the New Flemish Alliance, back to back is like led by Bart de Wever won 18.65% of the vote and took putting pyromaniacs and the fire brigade in the same 28 seats in the Chamber of Representatives (20.64% bag. Only the Socialist Party can stabilise the country,” of the vote and 9 seats in Senate), an unprecedented answered Prime Minister Elio di Rupo. result and the best score ever won by the secessionist party. The parties advocating the independence of A Belgian government without the Socialists seems Flanders (New Flemish Alliance, Vlaams Belang (VB) highly unlikely. -
Understanding Populism Through Difference: the Significance of Economic and Social Axes
disClosure: A Journal of Social Theory Volume 29 Populism Article 11 7-2020 Understanding Populism Through Difference: The Significance of Economic and Social Axes. An Interview with Kenneth Roberts, Cornell University Kenneth Roberts Cornell University Kayla Bohannon University of Kentucky Alina Hechler University of Kentucky DOI: https://doi.org/10.13023/disclosure.29.10 Follow this and additional works at: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/disclosure Part of the Latin American Languages and Societies Commons, and the Political Science Commons This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License. Recommended Citation Roberts, Kenneth; Bohannon, Kayla; and Hechler, Alina (2020) "Understanding Populism Through Difference: The Significance of conomicE and Social Axes. An Interview with Kenneth Roberts, Cornell University," disClosure: A Journal of Social Theory: Vol. 29 , Article 11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13023/disclosure.29.10 Available at: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/disclosure/vol29/iss1/11 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by disClosure: A Journal of Social Theory. Questions about the journal can be sent to [email protected] disClosure: A Journal of Social Theory Vol. 29, July 2020 Understanding Populism Through Difference: The Significance of Economic and Social Axes. An Interview with Kenneth Roberts, Cornell University Interviewers: Kayla Bohannon and Alina Hechler, University of Kentucky Kenneth M. Roberts is the Richard J. Schwartz Professor of Government and Binenkorb Director of Latin American Studies at Cornell University. His research and teaching interests focus on party systems, populism, social movements, and the politics of inequality in Latin America and beyond. He is the author of Changing Course in Latin America: Party Systems in the Neoliberal Era (Cambridge University Press) and Deepening Democracy? The Modern Left and Social Movements in Chile and Peru (Stanford University Press).