Rampage Shootings and Gun Control While the causes of rampage violence have been analysed thoroughly in diverse academic disciplines, we hardly know anything about the factors that affect their consequences for public policy. This book addresses rampage shootings in Western Europe and their conditional impact on politicization and policy change in the area of gun control. The author sets out to unravel the factors that facilitate or impede the access of gun control to the political agenda in the wake of rampage shootings and ana- lyses why some political debates lead to profound shifts of the policy status quo, while others peter out without any legislative reactions. In so doing, the book not only contributes to the theoretical literature on crisis- induced policy making, but also provides a wealth of case- study evidence on rampage shootings as empirical phenomena. In particular, the extent to which gun control gets politicized as a policy failure can either result from a bottom-up process (event severity and media pressure) or from a top- down logic (issue ownership and the electoral cycle). Including 12 case studies on the rampage shootings which have triggered a debate over the appropriateness of the affected countries’ gun policies, it illus- trates that the way political processes unfold after rampage shootings depends strongly on specific causal configurations and draws comparisons between the cases covered in the book and the way rampage shootings are typically dealt with in the United States. This text will be of key interest to scholars and students of public policy, policy analysis, European Politics and more broadly of comparative politics, criminology, psychology, and sociology. Steffen Hurka is a post-doctoral researcher at the Geschwister- Scholl-Institute of Political Science at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Germany. Routledge Research in Comparative Politics 61 Party Organization and 67 The Politics of Think Tanks in Electoral Volatility in Central Europe and Eastern Europe Jesper Dahl Kelstrup Enhancing Voter Loyalty Sergiu Gherghina 68 The Statecraft of Consensus Democracies in a Turbulent 62 Politics of Religion and World Nationalism A Comparative Study of Austria, Federalism, Consociationalism Belgium, Luxembourg, the and Seccession Netherlands and Switzerland Edited by Ferran Requejo and José M. Magone Klaus- Jürgen Nagel 63 Deficits and Debt in 69 Policy Change under New Industrialized Democracies Democratic Capitalism Edited by Gene Park and Edited by Hideko Magara Eisaku Ide 70 Rampage Shootings and Gun 64 Citizenship and Democracy in Control an Era of Crisis Politicization and Policy Change Edited by Thomas Poguntke, in Western Europe Sigrid Roßteutscher, Steffen Hurka Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck and Sonja Zmerli 71 Growth, Crisis, Democracy 65 Drivers of Integration and The Political Economy of Social Regionalism in Europe and Asia Coalitions and Policy Regime Comparative Perspectives Change Edited by Louis Brennan and Edited by Hideko Magara and Philomena Murray Bruno Amable 66 Generations, Political Participation and Social Change in Western Europe Maria T. Grasso Rampage Shootings and Gun Control Politicization and Policy Change in Western Europe Steffen Hurka First published 2017 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2017 Steffen Hurka The right of Steffen Hurka to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Names: Hurka, Steffen, author. Title: Rampage shootings and gun control : politicization and policy change in Western Europe / Steffen Hurka. Description: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2017. | Series: Routledge research in comparative politics | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2016055029| ISBN 9781138630437 (hardback) | ISBN 9781315209425 (ebook)Subjects: LCSH: Gun control–Europe, Western. | Violent crimes–Europe, Western. Classification: LCC HV7439.E85 H87 2017 | DDC 363.33094–dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016055029 ISBN: 978-1-138-63043-7 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-20942-5 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by Wearset Ltd, Boldon, Tyne and Wear For my wife Tanja Contents Lists of figures ix List of tables x Acknowledgements xi 1 Introduction 1 2 Rampage shootings, politicization and policy change 8 2.1 Rampage shootings as potential focusing events 8 2.2 Conceptualizing politicization 11 2.3 Conceptualizing policy change 12 3 The impact of focusing events on public policy 16 3.1 Theoretical frameworks on the political process 17 3.2 The politics of gun policy 22 3.3 Typologies of crises and disasters 24 3.4 Rampage shootings in the academic literature 26 3.5 Beyond rampage shootings: findings on event-related policy change 31 3.6 Research gap and research promise 34 4 Theorizing conditions for politicization, policy change and stability 41 4.1 Theoretical expectations on the politicization of gun control 41 4.2 Theoretical expectations on policy change and stability 48 4.3 Summary of the theoretical expectations 55 viii Contents 5 How to study the political impact of rampage shootings 59 5.1 Scope conditions 59 5.2 Case identification procedure 63 5.3 Pool of cases and some background information 65 5.4 The methodology of (fs)QCA 67 5.5 QCA: a primer on terminology and technique 69 5.6 The varying applicability of QCA in the present research context 74 6 Paths to the (non-)politicization of gun control 79 6.1 Operationalization, measurement and descriptive information 80 6.2 Set calibration 82 6.3 Analysis of necessity 85 6.4 Analysis of sufficiency 92 6.5 Summary of the findings on politicization 103 7 When laws bite the bullet (and when they do not) 108 7.1 Great Britain 109 7.2 Germany 115 7.3 Finland 128 7.4 France 136 7.5 Austria 139 7.6 Switzerland 143 7.7 Belgium 147 7.8 Comparative assessment 151 8 Conclusion 169 Appendix A: non-selected cases 177 Appendix B: robustness checks for the analysis of politicization 178 Index 183 Figures 4.1 Party positions on gun control 46 4.2 Summary of theoretical expectations 55 5.1 Media attention towards gun laws in Germany 63 6.1 Direct set calibrations 86 6.2 Summary of the findings on (non)-politicization 103 Tables 5.1 Overview of cases 66 5.2 Logic of necessity 70 5.3 Logic of sufficiency 71 6.1 Raw data matrix for the comparison of politicization patterns 82 6.2 Sets used in the fsQCA on politicization 85 6.3 Analysis of necessity: absence of politicization 87 6.4 Analysis of necessity: politicization 90 6.5 Analysis of necessity: disjunctions of individual conditions 91 6.6 Truth table: absence of politicization 93 6.7 Analysis of sufficiency: absence of politicization 96 6.8 Truth table: politicization 99 6.9 Analysis of sufficiency: politicization 100 7.1 Summary of the case studies 152 A.1 Non-selected cases 177 A.2 Results for varying 0.5-thresholds in the DEATH set 179 A.3 Results for varying 0.5-thresholds in the MEDIA set 180 A.4 Results for varying 0.5-thresholds in the GREEN set 181 A.5 Results for varying 0.5-thresholds in the ELECTIONS set 182 Acknowledgements The completion of this book would not have been possible without the support of many people. First of all, I thank my parents for enabling me to study and pursue an academic career. Over my entire life, their unconditional support has kept me going and I cannot thank them enough for everything. The same applies to my wife Tanja, who endured my complaints and whining about the horrible job of writing a doctoral thesis with never- ending patience. Although both she and my parents have never read a single word I wrote (‘why can’t you just write it in German!’), they never turned a deaf ear to my concerns. It is impossible to put the importance of their support into words. I also thank my supervisor Pro- fessor Christoph Knill not only for his comments and ideas, but also for the excellent working environment he and the University of Konstanz have provided me with. Considering the difficult job market for political scientists, the working conditions I was able to enjoy may not be taken for granted. During the comple- tion of this book, I was financed by the ERC Advanced Grant ‘MORAPOL – Comparative Analysis of Moral Policy Change’ (Grant No. 249388). In the project, I was lucky to have wonderful colleagues who gave me helpful and con- structive input during the entire research process and I would like to thank them very much for that. I also thank the faculty at the University of Konstanz, in par- ticular my other supervisors, Professor Breunig and Professor Leuffen for their useful comments on earlier drafts of this book. Another big ‘Thank you’ goes to the two reviewers of my book proposal for their positive assessments of the book project. Finally, I would like to thank the editorial staff at Routledge, in par- ticular Andrew Taylor and Sophie Iddamalgoda, who did an outstanding job during the editing process. Steffen Hurka Munich, November 2016 1 Introduction On 27 September 2001, Friedrich Leibacher entered the regional parliament of Zug (Switzerland) and opened fire on local politicians, killing 14 and wounding 14 others severely.