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UNO Template 13 July 2016 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Internet Nexon (3659 / 3659 JT) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (12 Jul 16, ¥) 1,444 INITIATION Target price (¥) 1,900¹ Chg to TP (%) 31.6 Market cap. (¥ bn) 629.93 (US$ 6.10) Initiating at OUTPERFORM due to stability Enterprise value (¥ bn) 440.12 Number of shares (mn) 436.24 from new titles, diverse portfolio Free float (%) 35.0 52-week price range 2,065 - 1,401 ■ Action: We initiate coverage of Nexon with an OUTPERFORM rating and a *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each ¥1,900 target price (potential return 31.6%). analyst's or each team's respective sector. ¹Target price is for 12 months. ■ Investment case: Impairment for consolidated subsidiary gloops has now Research Analysts been fully booked, greatly reducing future impairment risk. Amortization is Keiichi Yoneshima also down following the full amortization of IP for Dungeon Fighter Online 81 3 4550 9740 (Arad Senki) in August 2015, which had been ¥700mn/month. Looking at [email protected] revenues, existing games are doing well, and Nexon is preparing to release game iterations under existing strong brand titles. Even though the rising yen is negative for earnings, we think Nexon’s foundations in online gaming make its earnings quite reliable, and we rate the shares OUTPERFORM. ■ Catalysts/risk: Potential catalysts include new title launch dates, and new title earnings contributions. Risks include earnings deterioration in existing titles, especially in China and Korea, and a stronger yen. In addition, results of the investigation by Korean prosecutors announced on 12 July may weigh on the share price. ■ Valuation: We derive our target price using a DCF model. Our forecast period runs through FY12/20 and in estimating enterprise value from FY12/21 onward, we use a 5.0x EBITDA. Our WACC assumption is 8.45%. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS) Sales (¥ bn) 190.3 181.7 184.0 194.8 2000 200 Operating profit (¥ bn) 62.3 44.7 74.3 84.0 1500 150 Pre-tax profit (¥ bn) 68.0 39.0 74.3 84.0 1000 100 Net income (¥ bn) 55.6 22.6 55.7 63.0 500 50 EPS (¥) 127.9 51.9 129.3 146.0 0 0 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. IBES Consensus EPS (¥) n.a. 96.8 143.3 147.3 The price relative chart measures performance against the EPS growth (%) 88.1 -59.4 148.9 12.9 TOPIX which closed at 1285.73 on 12/07/16 P/E (x) 11.3 27.8 11.2 9.9 On 12/07/16 the spot exchange rate was ¥103.3/US$1 Dividend yield (%) 0.52 0.69 0.69 0.69 EV/EBITDA(x) 8.4 8.5 5.3 5.1 Performance over 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 Absolute (%) -14.2 -16.6 -10.3 ROE(%) 15.6 6.0 13.7 13.6 Relative (%) -10.8 -13.1 10.1 Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, IFIS, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 13 July 2016 Table of contents Key charts 3 Investment opinion 4 Initiate at OUTPERFORM with ¥1,900 TP 4 Initiating with OUTPERFORM; diverse portfolio, strong pipeline of new titles 4 (1) Diverse portfolio but exposed to forex risk 4 (2) Strong pipeline of new titles 4 (3) No risk of impairment losses, lower IP amortization costs 4 Earnings estimates 5 Rationale behind our OUTPERFORM rating 5 Valuation 7 Risks 7 Company overview 8 Company history 8 Executives 9 Shareholders 10 Company and group status 10 Business portfolio 12 China and Korea account for 80% of sales 12 Weighting by region 12 Weighting by platform 12 Dungeon Fighter Online a key revenue source in China; seasonal swings a major factor (40% of sales) 13 FIFA 3 and mobile games drive earnings in Korea; PC games firm (40% of sales) 14 Business continues to shrink in Japan; Nexon writes down goodwill from gloops in full (11% of sales) 15 North America and Europe/other regions 15 Cost breakdown: High margins despite variations stemming from sales mix 16 Outlook 17 Expecting sales and profit growth to continue 17 Release of new titles could mean further upside 18 Status of license agreements 20 Earnings forecasts 21 Nexon (3659 / 3659 JT) 2 13 July 2016 Key charts Figure 1: Weighting by region (% of total sales) Europe and Europe and others FY12/14 others FY12/15 3% 4% North America North America 3% 5% Japan Japan China 17% China 11% 39% 40% Korea Korea 38% 40% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse Figure 2: Sales trends: Actual and estimates Figure 3: OP trends: Actual and estimates Sales Operating profits 250,000 120,000 218,823 105,549 206,413 190,263 194,829 100,000 94,339 200,000 181,725 184,007 172,930 83,955 155,338 80,000 74,333 150,000 62,290 60,000 50,705 45,509 44,660 (JPYmn) (JPYmn) 100,000 40,000 50,000 20,000 0 0 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: Pipeline – 2016 and onward Source: Company data Nexon (3659 / 3659 JT) 3 13 July 2016 Investment opinion Initiate at OUTPERFORM with ¥1,900 TP Figure 5: Nexon (3659) – Earnings summary Nexon (3659) Earnings Summary EV 12-Jul-16 Sales Operating profit Recurring profit Net profit EPS P/E /EBITDA ¥1,444 ¥mn YoY (%) ¥mn YoY (%) ¥mn YoY (%) ¥mn YoY (%) ¥ YoY (%) (x) (x) Consolidated FY Dec-15 A 190,263 10.0% 62,290 36.9% 68,006 29.1% 55,601 89.0% 127.9 88.1% 8.4 11.3 Dec-16 CS E (new) 181,725 -4.5% 44,660 -28.3% 38,950 -42.7% 22,591 -59.4% 51.9 -59.4% 8.5 27.8 CoE NA NA NA NA IBES E 195,489 2.7% 55,811 -10.4% 55,133 -18.9% 41,876 -24.7% 96.8 -24.3% 7.8 14.9 Dec-17 CS E (new) 184,007 1.3% 74,333 66.4% 74,333 90.8% 55,750 146.8% 129.3 148.9% 5.3 11.2 IBES E 206,679 5.7% 74,920 34.2% 81,000 46.9% 62,952 50.3% 143.3 48.1% 5.4 10.1 Dec-18 CS E (new) 194,829 5.9% 83,955 12.9% 83,955 12.9% 62,966 12.9% 146.0 12.9% 5.1 9.9 IBES E 216,590 4.8% 79,008 5.5% 86,600 6.9% 64,810 3.0% 147.3 2.8% 5.3 9.8 Source: Company data, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse estimates Initiating with OUTPERFORM; diverse portfolio, strong pipeline of new titles Nexon is involved in PC and mobile online gaming on a global basis with a notable presence in China and Korea. Game business volatility is normally high, but Nexon’s game portfolio coverage is quite diverse across regions, devices, titles, and delivery channels, giving it an extraordinary degree of stability in the context of the industry. Within our coverage universe, its momentum on a local-currency basis is notable if we exclude its susceptibility to forex impact (estimated for 2Q FY12/16 at ¥300mn in sales and ¥100mn in OP for each ¥1/$ rate change). Existing titles are doing well and we anticipate a number of new releases over the long term (including existing titles released in new regions). We therefore take a quite positive view of Nexon within the online gaming industry. Consequently, we initiate coverage of Nexon with an OUTPERFORM rating. We are focusing on the following three points: (1) Diverse portfolio but exposed to forex risk Nexon is one of only a handful of online game developers in Japan with a diverse business portfolio in terms of markets, devices, genres and distribution channels. The company’s free-to-play (F2P) model means short-term earnings fluctuate due to the timing of billing events, but earnings have been stable over longer timeframes due to its diverse business portfolio. The company is exposed to forex risk, as accounts are settled in yen. A strong yen is negative for earnings and a weak yen is positive. (2) Strong pipeline of new titles Nexon has a strong pipeline of new titles. The timing of new releases is likely to be a share price catalyst. Promising IP titles include Dungeon & Fighter mobile (jointly developed with China’s Tencent), Final Fantasy XI mobile and LEGO mobile. Launch dates are still unclear, but we expect all three to contribute to earnings due to their popular IP content and Nexon’s proven capabilities in game operation.
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