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Transformative Recovery with Equality and Sustainability

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Transformative Recovery with Equality and Sustainability Building a New Future Transformative Recovery with Equality and Sustainability 2020 Thirty-eighth Building a New Future: Transformative Recovery Equality with and Sustainability Transformative Future: a New Building session of ECLAC 26–28 October Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/publications ublicaciones www.cepal.org/apps Building a New Future Transformative Recovery with Equality and Sustainability 2020 Thirty-eighth session of ECLAC 26–28 October Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary Raúl García-Buchaca Deputy Executive Secretary for Management and Programme Analysis Ricardo Pérez Chief, Publications and Web Services Work on this document was coordinated by Alicia Bárcena, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), with the collaboration of Mario Cimoli, Deputy Executive Secretary. The drafting committee comprised José Eduardo Alatorre, Simone Cecchini, Carlos de Miguel, Camila Gramkow, Wilson Peres, Gabriel Porcile, Joseluis Samaniego and Pablo Yanes, who were assisted by Romain Zivy, Vianka Aliaga, Vera Kiss and Nunzia Saporito, all of ECLAC. The following chiefs of ECLAC substantive divisions, subregional headquarters and country offices also participated in the preparation of this document: Daniel Titelman, Chief of the Economic Development Division; Rolando Ocampo, Chief of the Statistics Division; Simone Cecchini, Officer in Charge of the Social Development Division; Paulo Saad, Chief of the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)- Population Division of ECLAC; Cielo Morales, Chief of the Latin American and Caribbean Institute for Economic and Social Planning (ILPES); Giovanni Stumpo, Officer in Charge of the Division of Production, Productivity and Management; Joseluis Samaniego, Chief of the Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division; Jeannette Sánchez, Chief of the Natural Resources Division; Mario Castillo, Officer in Charge of the Division for Gender Affairs; Keiji Inoue, Officer in Charge of the Division of International Trade and Integration; Osvaldo Sunkel, Chair of the Editorial Board of the CEPAL Review; Hugo Beteta, Chief of the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico; Diane Quarless, Chief of the ECLAC subregional headquarters for the Caribbean; Verónica Amarante, Chief of the ECLAC office in Montevideo; Martín Abeles, Chief of the ECLAC office in Buenos Aires; Juan Carlos Ramírez, Chief of the ECLAC office in Bogotá; Carlos Mussi, Chief of the ECLAC office in Brasilia; and Inés Bustillo, Chief of the ECLAC office in Washington, D.C. The authors are particularly grateful for the collaboration of the following staff members of ECLAC: Laís Abramo, Diego Aulestia, David Barrio, Omar Bello, Álvaro Calderón, Martín Cherkasky Rappa, Georgina Cipoletta, Rubén Contreras, Felipe Correa, Miguel del Castillo, Marco Dini, Marta Duda-Nyczak, Ernesto Espíndola, Jimy Ferrer, Marina Gil, Nicolo Gligo, José Javier Gómez, Michael Hanni, Sebastián Herreros, Juan Pablo Jiménez, Valeria Jordán, Martin Kohout, Luiz Krieger, Pauline Leonard, Alberto Malmierca, María Luisa Marinho, Jorge Martínez, Jorge Mario Martínez, Karina Martínez, Rodrigo Martínez, Javier Meneses, Johan Mulder, Georgina Núñez, Alejandro Patiño, Leda Beatriz Peralta Quesada, Mauricio Pereira, Esteban Pérez, Noel Pérez, Ramón Pineda, Cecilia Plottier, Laura Poveda, Rayén Quiroga, Claudia Robles, Mónica Rodrigues, Adrián Rodríguez, Fernando Rojas, Sebastián Rovira, Lucía Scuro, Octavio Sotomayor, Giovanni Stumpo, Marcia Tambutti, Valeria Torres, Daniela Trucco, Heidi Ullmann, Iliana Vaca Trigo, Cecilia Vera and Paul Wander. The following ECLAC consultants also provided input for the preparation of the document: Tarek Abdo, Rafael Agacino, Carlos Álvarez, Valentín Álvarez, Daniela Baeza, Florian Botte, Franco Carvajal, Tommaso Ciarli, Stefania De Santis, Sofía del Villar, Andrés Espejo, Luis Miguel Galindo, Nicolás Grimblatt, Gonzalo Herrera, Cristina Klimza, André Lorentz, Camila Quiroz, Heloísa Schneider, Sabrina Torrillas, Marco Valente and Giuliano Yajima. The authors wish to thank Tilman Altenburg, Vanessa Esslinger, Anna Pegels, Leonardo Rojas Rodríguez, Rafael van der Borght, María Isidora Vera and Carolina Zúñiga Juul for their assistance. Gratitude is also due to Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), the United Nations Development Account and the EUROCLIMA programme, for their support for the substantive work of ECLAC, which has provided analysis and proposals for the preparation of this document. The boundaries and names shown on the maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. United Nations publication ISBN: 978-92-1-122053-7 (print) Explanatory notes ISBN: 978-92-1-004746-3 (pdf) - Three dots (…) indicate that data are missing, are not available or are not separately reported. ISBN: 978-92-1-358296-1 (ePub) - A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. - A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. Sales No.: E.20.II.G.14 - The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specified. LC/SES.38/3-P/Rev.1 - A slash (/) between years (e.g., 2013/2014) indicates a 12-month period falling between the two years. Distribution: G - Individual figures and percentages in tables may not always add up to the corresponding total due to rounding. Copyright © United Nations, 2020 This publication should be cited as: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Building a New Future: Transformative All rights reserved Recovery with Equality and Sustainability (LC/SES.38/3-P/Rev.1), Santiago, 2020. Printed at United Nations, Santiago Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin America and S.20-00698 the Caribbean (ECLAC), Publications and Web Services Division, [email protected]. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. Building a New Future: Transformative Recovery with Equality and Sustainability Foreword Contents Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Introduction............................................................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter I The three crises of the development model facing the global economy and Latin America and the Caribbean ............................................................................................................................................................23 A. The three crises facing the global economy ................................................................................................. 25 1. The pandemic is affecting a global economy already marked by slow growth in GDP and trade ......... 25 2. Inequality is an obstacle to development ................................................................................................ 28 3. Exceeding planetary boundaries .............................................................................................................. 31 4. The double asymmetry in environmental issues and the importance of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities ........................................................................................................... 34 5. The pandemic is a manifestation of environmental limits ...................................................................... 36 B. The three crises facing Latin America and the Caribbean ............................................................................. 37 1. The determinants and evolution of the growth rate compatible with external equilibrium .................. 39 2. Equality: the pending challenge for Latin American and Caribbean development ................................. 44 3. The environmental balance: climate change and the degradation of natural heritage .......................... 51 C. Concluding remarks......................................................................................................................................... 62 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................... 63 Chapter II A three-gap model and sustainable development scenarios .......................................................................... 71 A. Growth that is consistent with the external constraint ................................................................................. 73 B. Growth for equality ......................................................................................................................................... 75 C. The centre-periphery environmental frontier ................................................................................................. 76 D. Making external and environmental constraints compatible with growth for equality
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