Social Movements As Safeguards Against Democratic Backslidings in Africa? a Comparison of Term Amendment Struggles in Burkina Faso and Senegal
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Social movements as safeguards against democratic backslidings in Africa? A comparison of term amendment struggles in Burkina Faso and Senegal Der Fakultät Kulturwissenschaften der Leuphana Universität Lüneburg zur Erlangung des Grades Doktorin der Politikwissenschaft - Dr. rer. pol. - vorgelegte Dissertation von Nina-Kathrin Wienkoop Wienkoop, Nina-Kathrin. 2020. Social movements as safeguards against democratic backslidings in Africa? A comparison of term amendment struggles in Burkina Faso and Senegal. Lüneburg: Leuphana Universität Lüneburg. Copyright © 2020 Nina-Kathrin Wienkoop Erstbetreuer und Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Elischer, University of Florida Zweitgutachter: Prof. Dr. Christian Welzel, Leuphana Universität Lüneburg Drittgutachterin: Prof. Dr. Donatella della Porta, Scuola Normale Superiore Florence Verteidigt am 1. November 2019 (summa cum laude) Social movements as safeguards against democratic backslidings in Africa? A comparison of term amendment struggles in Burkina Faso and Senegal by Nina-Kathrin Wienkoop Presented to the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Leuphana University Lüneburg In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements for the Degree of Doctor in Political Science - Dr. rer. pol. - Wienkoop, Nina-Kathrin. 2020. Social movements as safeguards against democratic backslidings in Africa? A comparison of term amendment struggles in Burkina Faso and Senegal. Lüneburg: Leuphana Universität Lüneburg. Copyright © 2020 Nina-Kathrin Wienkoop Erstbetreuer und Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Elischer, University of Florida Zweitgutachter: Prof. Dr. Christian Welzel, Leuphana Universität Lüneburg Drittgutachterin: Prof. Dr. Donatella della Porta, Scuola Normale Superiore Florence Date of Defence: 1 November 2019 (summa cum laude) Table of Contents Overview of Tables and Figures 3 Abbreviations 4 Acknowledgements 7 1. Introduction 11 1.1 Literature review and gaps 15 1.2 Research cases and design 20 1.3 Data collection 23 1.4 Study objectives 27 1.5 Thesis overview 28 2. How mobilized social actors push presidents to change course – Theoretical and methodological framework 31 2.1 Divided they change – Political elites 36 2.2 Together they rock – Non-elite allies 42 2.3 Defected they support – Security forces 47 2.4 Synergy of comparative politics, process-tracing and contentious politics approaches – Methodology 52 2.5 Summary 60 3. Term bids in Africa – Population of cases and case selection 62 3.1 Typology of Africa’s term amendment struggles 63 3.2 The puzzle of Senegal and Burkina Faso 68 3.2.1 Typical but counterintuitive – Outcome variation 70 3.2.2 Political opportunity structures 72 3.2.3 Movement-centered characteristics 76 3.3 Summary 83 4. West African Harmattan – The protest proceedings in Senegal 2011/12 and in Burkina Faso 2013/14 84 4.1 Popular protest until resignation in Burkina Faso 86 4.1.1Rising awareness of term limits (May - August 2013) 89 4.1.2 Demobilization and negotiation attempts (August - December 2013) 94 4.1.3 Political confrontations (January - October 21, 2014) 96 4.1.4 Escalation (October 21 - 31, 2014) 99 4.1.5 Summary 110 4.2 Popular protest until candidature in Senegal 112 4.2.1 Cross-movement mobilization against governmental politics (January - May 2011) 115 4.2.2 First escalation and first ‘victory’ of the anti-term-front (June 1 – 23, 2011) 122 4.2.3 Institutional channeling (June 23, 2011 - December 2011) 127 4.2.4 Escalation (January 2012) 129 4.2.5 Demobilization and electoral campaigning (February - March 2012) 132 4.2.6 Summary 136 4.3 Summary 137 1 5. The term amendment struggles in comparative perspective 140 5.1 How the struggles took different pathways – Permissive and productive conditions within the episode of contention 142 5.1.1 Deduction of the point of divergence during the struggles 143 5.1.2 Actors at the crossroads – Perceptions of actors for understanding The divergence 147 5.1.3 Analysis of groups of actors and deduction of permissive and productive conditions within the episode of contention 155 5.2 Why the struggles proceed differently – Antecedent conditions before the episode of contention 162 5.2.1 Regime changes compared – Elite-led leadership changes in Senegal and troubled transitions in Burkina Faso 164 5.2.2 Coalition formations in Burkina Faso and cooptation in Senegal – Takeover and rule of the incumbent compared 172 5.3 From mass protests to the prevention of an unconstitutional candidature – Deduction of causal mechanisms 182 5.4 Summary 186 6. Conclusion 188 6.1 Key findings from the study of term amendment struggles 189 6.1.1 Novel research approach and design 190 6.1.2 Theoretical framework and empirical evidence – The scope of disruptive protests and the importance of disloyal soldiers 192 6.1.3 The division of tasks – Social movements and political parties 197 6.1.4 Political culture, past protest experiences, and civil-military relations – Critical antecedents to the term bid 200 6.1.5 Summary 204 6.2 Limitations and outlook 205 6.2.1 What I cannot explain (yet) 205 6.2.2 What others may soon find out 209 6.3 What comes after exceptional times – A brief outlook on political developments in Burkina Faso and Senegal 214 6.4 What have we learned 218 Bibliography 222 Declaration of Own Work 255 Appendix A: Interview guideline – Protest leaders i B: Interview guideline – Protest participants v C: Interview guideline – Experts vii D: Handout on research project x 2 Overview of Tables and Figures Figure 2.1: Explaining how protest leads to institutional changes through political elites 38 Figure 2.2: Explaining how protest leads to institutional changes through political allies 45 Figure 2.3: Explaining how protest leads to institutional changes through security forces 50 Figure 2.4: Methodological approach 59 Table 3.1: Term limits in Africa 64 Table 3.2: Typology of term amendment struggles in Africa 66 Table 3.3: Institutional arrangements of Senegal (2011) and Burkina Faso (2013) 75 Table 3.4: Movement characteristics of Y’en a marre and Balai Citoyen 81 Figure 4.1: Duration of protest events in Burkina Faso from January 2013 until December 2014 87 Table 4.1: Main political and protest events in Burkina Faso (May 2013 - November 2014) 91 Figure 4.2: Duration of protest events in Senegal from January 2011 until December 2012 113 Table 4.2: Main political and protest events in Senegal (January 2011 - March 2012) 117 Figure 5.1: Causal mechanisms that prevented an enforced candidature in Burkina Faso 160 Figure 5.2: Causal mechanisms from mass protests to the prevention or enforcement of an unconstitutional candidature 183 3 Abbreviations ADF-RDA Alliance pour la Démocratie et la Fédération-Rassemblement Démocratique Africain (Burkina Faso) ADJ Alternance-Démocratie et Justice (Burkina Faso) AFP Alliance des Forces de Progress (Senegal) AJB Association des Journalistes Burkinabés (Burkina Faso) ANEB Association Nationale des Étudiants Burkinabè (Burkina Faso) APR Alliance pour la République (Senegal) AST Alliance Sopi pour Toujours (Senegal) AU African Union AEVF Association des Étudiants Voltaiques en France BBS Benno Siggil Senegaal (Senegal) BONI Burkina Open Data Initiative (Burkina Faso) CAR Collectif Anti-Référendum (Burkina Faso) CASC Cadre de l’Action de la Societé Civile CCR Comités contre le referendum (Burkina Faso) CCVC Coalition Contre la Vie Chère (Burkina Faso) CDP Congrès pour la Démocratie et le Progress (Burkina Faso) CÉDÉAO Communauté Économique Des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest CENI Commission Électorale Nationale Indépendante (Burkina Faso) CFR Conventions des Forces Républicaines (Burkina Faso) CFOP Chef de File de l’Opposition (Burkina Faso) CGD Centre pour la Gouvernance Démocratique (Burkina Faso) CGT Confédération Générale du Travail (France) CGT-B Confédération Générale du Travail du Burkina (Burkina Faso) CNR Conseil National de la Revolution (Burkina Faso) CNT Conseil National de la Transition (Burkina Faso) CNTS Confédération Nationale des Travailleurs du Sénégal (Senegal) CODESIRA Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa 4 CODMPP Collectif des organisations démocratiques de masse et de partis politiques (shortly “Collectif” / “Collective”; Burkina Faso) COFEDEC Collectif des Femmes pour la Défense de la Constitution (Burkina Faso) COS-M23 Commission d’Orientation et Stratégies de M23 (Senegal) CPS Convention Panafricaine Sankariste (Burkina Faso) CSA Confédération des Syndicats Autonomes (Senegal) CSR Comité de soutien au referendum (Burkina Faso) EU European Union FAL2012 Forces Alliées 2012 (Senegal) FEDAP-BC Fédération des Associations pour la Paix et le Progrès avec Blaise Compaoré (Burkina Faso) FES Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung FNCL Féderation Nationale des Cadres libéraux (Senegal) FP Front Populaire (Burkina Faso) FRC Front de Résistance Citoyenne (Burkina Faso) IFAN Institut Fondamental d’Afrique Noire JEP Je m’engage pour mon patrie / Jeunesse engagée pour la patrie (Burkina Faso) LSDH Ligue Sénégalaise des Droits Humains (Senegal) LUCHA Lutte pour le Changement (DR Congo) M23 Mouvement du 23 Juin (Senegal) MBDHP Mouvement Burkinabé pour des Droits de l’Homme et des Peuples (Burkina Faso) MEEL Mouvement des élèves et étudiants libéraux (Senegal) MNFV Mouvement nationales des forces vives (Senegal) MPP Mouvement du peuple pour le progress (Burkina Faso) NTS Nouveau type de Sénégalais (Senegal) NGO Non-governmental organization ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ODJ Organisation Démocratique de la Jeunesse du Burkina Faso (Burkina Faso)