A Return to Realism: the Failure of the Bush Doctrine As a Paradigm for United States Post-Cold War Foreign Policy

A Return to Realism: The Failure of the Bush Doctrine as a Paradigm for United States Post - Cold War Foreign Policy A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in Political Science University of Regina By Michael C. Ducie Regina, Saskatchewan May 2009 Copyright 2009: M.C. 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The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in this et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. Ni thesis. Neither the thesis nor la these ni des extraits substantiels de celle-ci substantial extracts from it may be ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement printed or otherwise reproduced reproduits sans son autorisation. without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne sur la Privacy Act some supporting forms protection de la vie privee, quelques may have been removed from this formulaires secondaires ont ete enleves de thesis. cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n'y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. 1+1 Canada UNIVERSITY OF REGINA FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH SUPERVISORY AND EXAMINING COMMITTEE Michael Charles Ducie, candidate for the degree of Master of Arts in Political Science, has presented a thesis titled, A Return to Realism: The Failure of the Bush Doctrine as a Paradigm for United States Post - Cold War Foreign Policy, in an oral examination held on May 15, 2009. The following committee members have found the thesis acceptable in form and content, and that the candidate demonstrated satisfactory knowledge of the subject material. External Examiner: *Dr. Bruno Dupeyron, Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy Co-Supervisor: Dr. Yuchao Zhu, Department of Political Science Co-Supervisor: Dr. Tom Mcintosh, Department of Political Science Committee Member: Dr. Ann Ward, Department of Political Science, Campion College Chair of Defense: Dr. Yiyu Yao, Department of Computer Science *Extemal in absentia ii Abstract During the Cold War the realist theory of international relations as formulated by Hans Morgenthau provided the theoretical underpinnings of U.S. foreign policy. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s the U.S. searched for a new paradigm to guide its foreign policy. Many people argued that the nature of the post - Cold War international system with its many transnational issues that did not fall within the Cold War definition of national interests which meant that a realist foreign policy was no longer appropriate. The Clinton foreign policy had lacked a theoretical cohesiveness and as such was much more reactionary in responding to international issues and crises. In response senior members of the neoconservative foreign policy establishment formed the Project for a New American Century (PNAC) to present what they believed U.S. foreign policy should encompass. The election of George W. Bush and the attacks of September 11, 2001 provided the opportunity for former members of PNAC and now senior administration officials to implement their ideas in the form of the Bush Doctrine. The Bush Doctrine can be defined as an approach to U.S. foreign policy that is a form of militant idealism or neo - idealism based on the concept of unrivalled military power and U.S. exceptionalism, supported by two principles; pre-emption and democratization. Pre-emption holds that the U.S. may institute regime change in any state that it deems a threat even if that threat is not imminent. Second, that the U.S. has the responsibility to foster the spread of democracy and free market economic systems. This thesis will demonstrate that the U.S. has been unable to address a broad range of global issues because of its inability to move beyond the narrowly defined concept of national interests that has framed its historical foreign policy decisions. The iii Bush Doctrine maintains a narrow definition of national interests that has a greater degree of global engagement, but does so largely within the scope of national security affairs and the so - called "war on terror". This represents a narrow definition of national interests and lacks an understanding of the interconnected nature of international issues. The failure of the Bush Doctrine over the past eight years and the reasons for this failure illustrates why the U.S. needs to return to a realist paradigm but with a broader definition of national interests to guide its foreign policy. The war in Iraq is the primary application of the Bush Doctrine, in many ways the Doctrine was developed to provide justification for the war and to supply the framework for the future application of U.S. power. Success in Iraq was short - lived, within months of the invasion the limitations of U.S. strategy became evident. Too few soldiers and the lack of a comprehensive post - invasion reconstruction plan led to the collapse of Iraq into a sectarian civil war with the U.S. trapped in the middle. The adherence of senior neoconservative members of the Administration to the failed strategy for three years resulted in the loss of thousands of lives, billions of dollars and the displacement of millions of refugees. The eventual recognition of this failure resulted in the removal of many of the neoconservatives with realists and the de facto end of the Bush Doctrine. The failure of the Bush Doctrine represents how U.S. foreign policy needs to recognize the interconnected nature of international issues. As a result it is necessary to have a broad definition of national interests. This can best be accomplished within the realist foreign policy paradigm that has traditionally guided U.S. foreign policy, to which the American people have grown accustomed and has become part of the political culture as illustrated by the broad acceptance of the Weinberger - Powell Doctrine. IV Acknowledgements I would like to thank Dr. Tom Mcintosh for his support both as an advisor and for the financial support that made this work possible. I also want to extend my appreciation to Dr. Yuchao Zhu whose guidance in the production of this thesis has been invaluable. I want to thank Dr. Ann Ward for her participation on my committee and for her insightful comments on this thesis. A special thank you to Dr. Howard Leeson who provided advice and support during the early stages of this work. I want to thank the Department of Political Science for the teaching assistantships, which have provided me with valuable experience. Finally, I want to thank my fellow graduate student, Nathan Klassen for his time and for providing comments on this thesis. V Table of Contents 1. Introduction 7 2. Historical Context 15 3. Realism in its American Context 3.1 Pre - Morgenthau Realism 24 3.2 Morgenthau's Realism 30 3.3 Post - Morgenthau Developments 33 3.4 Application of Realism during the Cold War 39 4. The Development of the Bush Doctrine 4.1 Pre - 2001 Neoconservative Foreign Policy Discussions 47 4.2 September 11, 2001 and the National Security Strategy of 2002 54 4.3 Robert Kagan and the Bush Doctrine 61 4.4 Charles Krauthammer and the Bush Doctrine 64 4.5 Michael Ignatieffand the Bush Doctrine 66 4.6 Niall Ferguson and the Bush Doctrine 69 5. The Bush Doctrine in Practice 5.1 Pre-2001: The United States and Iraq 74 5.2 The Justification and Lead Up to War 77 5.3 Realist Opposition to the War 83 5.4 The Invasion of Iraq and the Lost Three Years 85 5.5 The Iraq Reassessment: The Iraq Study Group 92 5.6 The Bush Administration Responds: The Surge 96 5.7 Two Years Later 97 5.8 The Bush Doctrine - Assessments or Mea Culpa: Rice, Ferguson, Krauthammer, Kagan, and Ignatieff 101 Conclusion 112 Appendix: Chronology 119 Bibliography 126 vi Acronyms CIA Central Intelligence Agency IED Improvised Explosive Device ISG Iraq Study Group MAD Mutual Assured Destruction NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NIE National Intelligence Estimate NSC National Security Council NSS National Security Strategy ORHA Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance PNAC Project for a New American Century WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction 7 1. Introduction To overcome dangers in our world, America will encourage economic progress, fight disease, and spread hope in hopeless lands George W. Bush (2006, State of the Union Address) It don't matter who did what to who at this point, the fact is we went to war and now there ain't no going back, I mean its what war is you know once you in it, you in it, if it's a lie then we fight on that lie, but we got to fight.

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