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Briefing : Easyjet 10 The Sunday Times February 4, 2018 BUSINESS BRIEFING EASYJET MARKET WATCH IAN COWIE Goldman Sachs gave global than they are today. But both were about to fall. This THE ISSUE THE ANALYST stock markets a bit of a shock will they? technique, sadly similar to EASY STREET WILL HEFFERNAN Hang on last week when the world’s Switching into cash is the many retail investors in best-known investment bank easy part of market timing practice, meant he retired EasyJet reported quarterly results This was a strong set of results and warned share prices were because the individual can last month with a fund worth last month that showed the airline management raised its revenue per in there, due a “rather painful . congratulate him or herself £150,890. taking advantage of recent carrier seat growth guidance for the first half sharp correction”. Nor was on standing back from Good Timing Gary also bankruptcies. Overall sales rose 14.1% of this financial year from mid to high Goldman the first institution excessive exuberance initially kept his savings in to £1.1bn (€1.25bn). Total revenue per single-digit. Yields were impressive to express fears about lofty elsewhere. Buying back into cash but, unlike Bob, only seat was £55.99, an uptick of 8.4%. and lead to earnings per share and your valuations. A few days earlier, shares after prices have ever invested in the stock Overall passenger numbers grew by upgrades across the board. EasyJet Bank of America Merrill plunged and confidence has market when confidence and 8% to 18.8m. EasyJet benefited from has benefited the most from Lynch said it was “very likely” collapsed is the difficult bit. the All-Share had hit rock reduced capacity on some flagship UK Monarch’s bankruptcy as its routes shares share prices would fall in the As reported here from time bottom and both were about and European routes due to the overlapped 98% of easyJet’s routes. next few weeks. to time, I have suffered to rise. This technique, bankruptcies of Alitalia, Air Berlin and The rising trend in fare prices is Both banks emphasised occasional bouts of vertigo perhaps unsurprisingly, had Monarch, less capacity from Ryanair expected to continue for the they were not predicting a while this bull market has the happier outcome of and a general increase in passenger remainder of 2018. That tailwind, shouldn’t prolonged bear market but climbed to dizzying heights. building a fund worth numbers as European economic along with a buoyant European were reacting to the longest After staying fully invested for £221,185 by January 2018. growth strengthens. Management economy, should ensure 2018 is a period of rising prices yet most of my adult life, I Now here’s the big also showed good cost control with a positive year for the sector. EasyJet let you seen. The Standard & Poor’s stopped reinvesting surprise. Steady Steffi never slight reduction in cost per seat and currently trades on an estimated 2018 500 index, a broad measure dividends for a few months bothered with deposits and fuel costs. 16.5 times earnings and earns a of American stock markets, last year but — after recently Investors can ride out even always put her money into dividend yield of 2.8%. and the MSCI World Index, a making a large withdrawal to the worst bear market the stock market every down global benchmark of about help our son buy his first January and left it there, easyJet 1,650 big companies’ shares, house — am now fully measure of British shares, come rain or shine. THE BOSS have both set new records for invested again. over the past 30 years. To Her “buy and hold” JOHAN LUNDGREN £17 the longest runs without While I will continue to turn a spreadsheet into a approach to investing in the falling by 5% on a single day. adjust asset allocation in story, I named our three All-Share meant she retired Johan Lundgren took over as chief 16 Peter Oppenheimer, response to events, I believe example investors Bad last month with a fund worth executive from Carolyn McCall in Goldman’s chief global equity the only sensible strategy for Timing Bob, Good Timing £285,884. December 2017 and his first set of 15 strategist, explained: “This long-term savers, as opposed Gary and Steady Steffi. Tom Stevenson, a director results set a high standard. Lundgren does not mean that the to short-term speculators, is Each set aside £1,000 at Fidelity, told me: “Second- 14 was previously Tui Travel’s deputy market must have a to remain invested in shares (€1,138) in January 1988, and guessing the stock market is a chief executive. He left after Tui Travel 13 correction. It just suggests and share-based funds. Even the same sum the following mug’s game. If your timing merged with its German parent TUI AG that one is overdue and that if you have a crystal ball — or, year before setting aside is as bad as Bob’s, the in 2015 and had been on gardening 12 rising valuations, amid like Goldman and Merrill £2,000 each January through consequences can be very leave since. He started his career in increased optimism, make some other means of the 1990s, then £3,000 a year costly. Even if you have the 1986 in the Swedish travel sector. The 11 the market more vulnerable predicting share price through the noughties and skill or luck of Gary, earning a appointment surprised analysts. He is Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan to a setback.” movements — it can be an £4,000 each January during paltry rate of interest while generally regarded as a charismatic, Source: Yahoo This may come as music to expensive mistake to spend the current decade. Over the you wait for the right time to customer-focused executive. the ears of many people who too long in cash, as new past three decades, they each invest can seriously Lundgren, 50, recently took a £34,000 Market cap: £6.6bn (€7.5bn); Share have yet to participate in research from Fidelity set aside a total of £88,000. compromise returns.” pay cut to match his predecessor’s price: £16.69; DPS: £0.467; EPS: the upward trend in share International demonstrates. Bad Timing Bob initially For those of us who lack salary. The move followed media £1.012; Top five shareholders: prices that began nearly nine At the request of The kept his savings in cash, a crystal ball or even reports that found easyJet had one of Haji-Ioannou Family, 33.7%; Invesco, years ago. Sunday Times, the fund earning 0.75%, only ever Goldman’s expert guidance, the worst gender pay gaps in the UK. 10.22%; Blackrock, 4.62%; Vanguard, With luck, they might soon manager has analysed investing in the stock market time in the market is a better He is a trained classical trombonist. 1.99%; Prudential, 1.89% get the chance to invest at historic fluctuations in the after confidence and the All- way to build wealth than prices substantially lower FTSE All-Share index, a broad Share index had peaked and trying to time the market. ISEQ FTSE 100 213.4 222.11 3% 2.89% H:7,257.41 H:7,792.6 DATABANK 6,885.23 L:6,369.05 7,443.43 L:7,096.8 IRISH SHARES THE WEEK IN THE MARKETS THE ECONOMY ISEQ RISERS DOLLAR Consumer price index current rate annual change Ormonde Mining: 3c, U 7.1% EUR > USD 32 Abbey 14.8 –0.67 15 13.6 1.31 8.28 317.3 33 Kenmare Resources (£) 2.77 –0.18 3.52 2.37 0 7.55 303 Hibernia REIT: €1.55, U 3.3% Z0.4% U0.4% 7,200 Total Produce: €2.46, U 2.9% 4 Allied Irish Banks 5.43 –5.98 9.5 4.4 2.85 14.96 14725.5 3 Kerry Group 85.8 –1.38 94.92 63.54 0.8 23.39 15116.7 Residential property price index current rate annual change 7,000 $1.24 40 Aminex 0.03 –3.03 0.09 0.03 – – 116.6 9 Kingspan Group 36.7 –1.98 39.9 26.51 1.18 19.56 6584.8 W 0.00 FALLERS U1.1% U11.6% 6,800 12-month high: $1.25 44 Amryt Pharma (£) 0.2 –1.01 0.3 0.16 0 – 53.9 41 Mainstay Medical International 12.7 +0 16 12.7 – – 84.1 IFG Group: £1.67, V 9.2% low: $1.05 Vehicles licensed for the first time Nov 2017 annual change 6,600 Tullow Oil: £1.99, V 9% 28 Applegreen 5.86 –1.68 6.2 4.5 0.31 20.84 536.5 30 Malin Corporation 8.5 –4.49 12.71 8.25 – – 387 Datalex: €3.06, V 8.1% 6,400 POUND 495 Z13.5% 12 Aryzta 21.77 –6.93 33.48 21.18 0.83 17.95 2023.3 35 Mincon Group 1.2 –4 1.29 0.72 1.67 19.93 252.6 EUR > GBP 6,200 Average earnings a week prev. quarter qoq change 5 Bank of Ireland 7.87 –3.5 8.25 6.18 3.17 11.87 8484.9 26 Origin Enterprises 6.03 –0.99 7.58 5.98 3.48 12.24 757.3 €714 €720 U1.7% 23 C&C Group 3 –4.15 4 2.77 5.25 12.54 926.6 FMAMJJASONDJ €0.88 46 Ormonde Mining 0.03 +7.14 0.04 0.01 – – 14.2 Source: Bloomberg U 0.01 Unemployment on last month annual change 15 Cairn Homes (£) 1.92 +1.05 2 0.02 0.2 29.69 1465.5 49 Ovoca Gold 0.09 +0 0.16 0.08 – – 6.9 12-month high: £0.92 low: £0.83 38 CPL Resources 6.34 +2.26 6.75 5.6 2.09 10.5 172.3 143,700/6.1% Z3,000 Z28,600 7 Paddy Power Betfair (£) 81.8 +1.24 89.67 65.72 2.69 18.6 6919.8 DOW JONES CAC 40 1 CRH 29.03 –6.45 34.87 28.22 2.42 14.86 24353.8 25,520.96 5,364.98 YEN Manufacturing output current rate annual change 22 Permanent TSB Group 2.16 –4.22 2.96 1.64 0 13.18 979.9 164.17 H:5,567.0 YEN > USD 21 Dalata Hotel Group 5.82 –3.96 6.34 4.18 0 14.41 1069 1,095.75 H:26,616.7 Z10.1% 11.1% 47 Petroneft Resources (£) 0.01 +0 0.04 0.01 0 – 10.1 4.12% L:19,831.1 2.97% L:4,733.8 Z 36 Datalex 3.06 –8.11 4.15 2.82 1.87 34.92 235.4 Retail sales current rate annual change 43 Providence Resources 0.12 –4.92 0.24 0.05 – – 69.3 ¥110.09 8 DCC (£) 74.15 –1.92 77.63 62.4 1.81 20.31 6614.2 NASDAQ DAX U 1.39 2.6% U6.8% 2 Ryanair Holdings 16.36 –2.3 19.79 13.33 0 13.26 19345.7 7,240.95 12,785.16 12-month high: ¥115.50 42 Donegal Investment Group 7.8 –1.27 8 5 0 18.03 75.1 low: ¥107.31 Irish trade latest month prev.
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