Can Foresight Processes Operationalize the Notion of Sustainability? By Leah A. Soroka A Thesis Presented to The University of Guelph In partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Rural Studies Guelph, Ontario, Canada © Leah A. Soroka, May 2016 Abstract CAN FORESIGHT PROCESSES OPERATIONALIZE THE NOTION OF SUSTAINABILITY? Leah A. Soroka Advisors: University of Guelph, 2016 Professors Allan Lauzon and John FitzGibbon Arden Brummell In an increasingly complex world, many business leaders, politicians, citizens, and NGOs desire sustainability, but the academic literature is insufficient with insights on how to operationalize sustainability. The commonly mentioned Brundtland definition of sustainability refers to making decisions that benefit today but are also beneficial to future generations. Implicit in the definition of sustainability is consideration of the future. Given this temporal dimension inherent in the definition of sustainability, the research question is: how does thinking about the future impact decision making and enhance sustainability? Linking the future to the definition of sustainability, foresight or future studies may be essential to operationalize sustainability. After a review of the literature on sustainability, the researcher proposes a theoretical construct known as the Sustainability Heuristic Model where thinking about the future fosters social learning, adaptability and sustainability. In this model, foresight methodologies promote the development of adaptive capacity through the development of options, technologies, and solutions that support sustainability. The consideration and practice of these options opens thinking, consciousness of changes, and the generation of ideas and options for action. The combination of these factors increase the likelihood that decisions move the achievements toward sustainability. Therefore, the Sustainability Heuristic Model argues a process that can help prepare for uncertainty and take action that will benefit future generations. To explore the application of the Sustainability Heuristic Model, the researcher examines the impact of two case studies, which use foresight methodologies, to think about the future and explore options of action leading to decision making the is supportive of sustainability. The research obtained participant views, understanding, and reflections on how foresight processes impact the elements of the Sustainability Heuristics Model. The first case study focused on foresight exercises led by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada on how agriculture could adapt to climate change. The second case study focused on foresight exercises led by Health Canada on how to develop a sustainable health system. A case study was constructed for each foresight series from the analysis of the documents produced from each foresight exercise and an analysis of the participant’s interviews. Then the two cases were compared through a cross-case analysis examining using the same framework as was used in the case study construction. The outcomes of the case study analysis and the cross-case analysis indicate similarities in findings suggesting the possibility of broader system understanding and model development to inform the operationalization of sustainability. Key analytical findings indicate that the Sustainability Heuristic Model, which argues that foresight leads to social learning and increased adaptive capacity is a valuable and relevant construct. Therefore, the researcher proposes the Sustainability Heuristic Model with the use of foresight as a way to draw the future into present day decision making and thus, operationalize a practice where new options are developed leading to sustainability. iii Acknowledgements Thank you to all of the participants interviewed in this research. Your insights and openness have inspired me that all these years of thinking about the future has an immense value to innovation, policy-making, business, and sustainability. When we think about the future, we are in some way forever changed. Thank you to my committee. Dr. Al Lauzon for the feedback and support while I was in the ‘out-backs’ of Afghanistan, Ottawa, and Ukraine. He would always come to my rescue wherever I may be. Thank you to Arden Brummell for this lifelong practical guidance and advice on the practice of foresight that kept me grounded. Many thanks to the committee for their thoughts, comments, and feedback. To my family – thank you - for your support and encouragement during this process. Thanks to Michael and Elyse to their motivational words to persevere. Thanks for Ross for reading the manuscript more than once. You are a good man to read hundreds of pages when you don’t really have to. Looking forward to all the possible selves our futures may hold. “The future starts today, not tomorrow”….Pope John Paul II. iv Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ v List of Tables .................................................................................................................. ix List of Figures .................................................................................................................. x I. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1 2. Problem ................................................................................................................ 1 3. Mini-Literature Review on Sustainability ............................................................... 3 a. Introduction to Sustainability.......................................................................... 3 b. Literature Overview ....................................................................................... 6 4. Summary .............................................................................................................. 9 II. The Theoretical Construct: Sustainability Heuristic Model - Literature Review . 10 1. The Theoretical Construct: The Sustainability Heuristic Model ...........................10 2. Sustainability - A Review of the Sustainability Literature ......................................12 a. Evolution in the Challenges and Contexts to Sustainable Development .......12 b. Evolution in Scientific Philosophy and Theoretical Constructs ......................13 c. Evolution in the Methodologies Operationalizing Sustainability ....................16 d. A Review of the Processes used to Achieve Sustainability ...........................20 e. Controversies and Trends in the Sustainability Domain................................27 3. Foresight - A Review of the Foresight Literature: Sustainability in an Uncertain Future ..................................................................................................................28 a. Foresight Overview ......................................................................................29 b. Changes in Methodologies in Future Studies ...............................................32 c. Processes within the Element of Foresight ...................................................38 d. Controversies in the Foresight Literature ......................................................47 4. Social Learning - Definition of Social Learning and Trends in the Literature ........49 a. Social Learning Overview .............................................................................50 b. Processes within the Element of Social Learning .........................................51 v c. Controversies and Future Research in the Social Learning Literature ..........57 5. Adaptive Capacity - Literature Review of Adaptive Capacity ...............................58 a. Adaptive Capacity Overview ........................................................................58 b. Processes within the Element of Adaptive Capacity .....................................68 c. Controversies and Further Research in the Adaptive Capacity Literature .....73 6. Summary of the Model ........................................................................................73 a. Observations in each of the Key Elements ...................................................73 b. Comments on the Controversies and Areas for Further Research ...............75 7. Summary .............................................................................................................77 III. The Research Methodology .................................................................................79 1. The Problem ........................................................................................................79 2. Research Goal and Objectives ............................................................................79 3. Research Questions ............................................................................................79 4. Research Sub-Questions ....................................................................................80 5. The Research Context.........................................................................................80