Performance of Russian Energy Companies in H1 2021: Helped by the Weather and a Partial Recovery Of
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DENIS KRASNOVSKIY Expert, Corporate Ratings Group +7 (495) 139 04 80, ext. 188 [email protected] 1 LARISA LOZNOVA 2 0 2 Managing Director, Global Head of Corporate Ratings Group +7 (495) 139 04 98, ext. 171 [email protected] Media contact SEPTEMBER 6, ALEXEY CHURILOV Manager for External Communications +7 (495) 139 04 80, ext. 169 [email protected] Y POWER & UTILITIES | RUSSIA PERFORMANCE OF RUSSIAN ENERGY COMPANIES IN H1 2021: HELPED BY THE WEATHER AND A PARTIAL RECOVERY OF ANALYTICAL COMMENTAR ECONOMIC GROWTH Dynamics of electricity and heat generation In July and August, a number of Russia’s power generating companies published operating and financial results for the first half of this year. Almost all of them recorded growth in the volume of produced electricity and heat in H1 2021 compared to indicators for H1 2020 — by 0.4–14.6% and 5.4–27%, respectively. This is due to the following factors: — Lower temperatures in winter 2021 and a longer heating season compared to 2020, as a result of which more heat energy was consumed; — This year, the beginning of summer was warmer than last year, which led to growth in electricity used by cooling equipment (fridges, air conditioners, etc.); — Higher consumption of power amid a gradual recovery in economic activity following the downturn triggered by limitations imposed during the coronavirus pandemic; — Softening of restrictions of the OPEC+ oil production cut agreement, which led to a decrease in electricity consumption by oil companies. PERFORMANCE OF RUSSI AN ENERGY COMPANIES IN H1 2 021 Table. Dynamics of operating indicators and revenue for the sample of companies in H1 2021 compared to H1 2020 DISCHARGE OF HEAT ENERGY ELECTRICITY COMPANY FROM COLLECTORS, REVENUE, RUB GENERATION, KWH GCAL Inter RAO Group +14.6% +14.7% +18.1% Mosenergo PJSC +13.1% +25% +26.6% SEPTEMBER 6, 2021 OGK-2 PJSC +0.4% +11.7% +10.2% TGС-1 PJSC +7.7% +11,6% +16.2% RusHydro PJSC -6% +5.4% +6.3% Y Siberian Generating Company LLC +3% +27% no data En+ Group +12% +11% no data Unipro PJSC +4.3% +24.3% +12.1% T Plus PJSC +8.6% +15% +12.1% Rosenergoatom JSC +7% no data no data Note: For the sake of comparison, only data on the Russian generation of Inter RAO Group was used, and only En+ Group’s data on the power segment was used. Sources: companies’ data, public sources, ACRA ANALYTICAL COMMENTAR The growth of production of electricity and heat had a positive impact on the revenue of generating companies — it grew by 6.3–26.6% over the reporting period, while in the first half of last year it declined. The cold weather factor mainly influences the operation of cogeneration power plans as electricity generation is forced to increase when growth in thermal capacity takes place. At the same time, a lower water level and a corresponding technological decrease in the utilization of hydroelectric power plants also lead to an increase in the utilization of thermal generation capacities and higher operating results in this segment. Growth in the volume of electricity consumption in Russia’s Unified Energy System Information on payments (UES) in the period from January to June this year (+5.2% compared to the indicator for electricity can be found for H1 2020), as well as increased consumption of heat energy led to higher in ACRA’s analytical commentary Payment electricity prices. Prices grew by 13.4% for end users (except the population) over six Discipline in Russia’s months compared to the same period in 2020. These growth rates were recorded in Electricity Sector: End the first pricing zone of the Wholesale Electricity and Capacity Market, which is Consumers’ Debt is dominated by heat energy. Growing from July 15, 2021. Particular attention should be paid to the hydroelectric and nuclear power segments, which have their own specifics. The operational performance of RusHydro PJSC in terms of electricity generation differs from the situation in “classical” thermal generation. For H1 2020, the company posted a 32% increase in electricity generation at hydroelectric power plants due to high water content amid a general decline in electricity generation and consumption in that period, while in 2021, electricity generation declined by 6% due to a lower water content. In the nuclear power segment, electricity generation has been steadily growing, which is directly related to the technological capabilities of nuclear power plants. The operating specifics of nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants is that their capacities are utilized in the first place and are not taken into account in electricity pricing. –p. 2 PERFORMANCE OF RUSSI AN ENERGY COMPANIES IN H1 2 021 In H1 2021, electricity consumption in the UES outpaced the level observed in the same period in 2020 (last year, the decrease in energy consumption was associated with warm weather, quarantine restrictions, and the OPEC+ agreement), as well as consumption seen in H1 2019 (a 2.3% increase). These dynamics were facilitated by the colder winter in 2021 and the recovery of the domestic electricity industry against the backdrop of growing demand from the Russian economy. Taking into account the growth in electricity consumption in H1 SEPTEMBER 6, 2021 2021, ACRA expects that by the end of 2021, the total volume of energy consumption may grow in comparison with both 2020 and 2019 — by up to 6% and 3%, respectively. Summing up the above trends in the industry, it should be noted that the moderately growing demand for energy produced by Russian generating companies provides Y some support for the sustainability of their financial and operational performance indicators. ANALYTICAL COMMENTAR –p. 3 PERFORMANCE OF RUSSI AN ENERGY COMPANIES IN H1 2 021 (С) 2021 Analytical Credit Rating Agency (Joint-Stock Company), ACRA (JSC) 75, Sadovnicheskaya embankment, Moscow, Russia www.acra-ratings.com The Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) was founded in 2015, with its 27 shareholders representing major Russian corporate and financial institutions and its authorized capital exceeding RUB 3 bln. ACRA’s main objective is to provide the Russian financial market with high-quality rating products. Methodologies and internal documents of ACRA are developed in compliance with Russian legislation and with regard to global rating industry best practices. 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