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Characteristics of Extreme Storms in Montana and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Storm Hyetographs

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Characteristics of Extreme Storms in Montana and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Storm Hyetographs science for a changing world In cooperation with the MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND CONSERVATION Characteristics of Extreme Storms in Montana and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Storm Hyetographs Water-Resources Investigations Report 98-4100 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Photograph courtesy of National Association of Conservation Districts U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Characteristics of Extreme Storms in Montana and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Storm Hyetographs By Charles Parrett Water-Resources Investigations Report 98-4100 In cooperation with the MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND CONSERVATION U.S. Department of the Interior BRUCE BABBITT, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Thomas J. Casadevall, Acting Director Helena, Montana July 1998 For additional information write to: District Chief U.S. Geological Survey Federal Building, Drawer 10076 Helena, MT 59626-0076 Copies of this report may be purchased from: U.S. Geological Survey Branch of Information Services Box 25286 Denver, CO 80225-0286 CONTENTS Page Definitions .................................................... vi Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................^ 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................^ 2 Purpose and scope...................................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgments..................................................................................................................................................... 2 Database of storms............................................................................................................................................................... 2 Regional and seasonal storm characteristics......................................................................................................................... 3 Seasonality of 2-hour storms ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Seasonality of 6-hour storms ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Seasonality of 24-hour storms ................................................................................................................................... 5 Temporal characteristics..........................................................................................^ 7 Determination of total storm duration and macro-pattern type ................................................................................. 7 Timing of peak precipitation intensity....................................................................................................................... 9 Sequencing pattern of high-intensity incremental storm depths................................................................................ 9 24-hour storm patterns............................................................................................................................................... 12 Dimensionless depths and dependent durations ........................................................................................................ 13 Dimensionless depth-duration curves........................................................................................................................ 14 Probabilistic characteristics of precipitation depths.............................................................................................................. 15 Magnitude-frequency characteristics of dimensionless depths ................................................................................. 15 Correlation of dimensionless-depth data................................................................................................................... 18 Kernel durations and regression analyses.................................................................................................................. 18 Estimation of 0.0833-and 0.167-hour duration data................................................................................................ 22 Probabilistic depth-duration curves........................................................................................................................... 22 Probabilistic depth-duration data for 24-hour storms based on 48-hour kernel duration.......................................... 28 Probabilistic time-to-peak data.................................................................................................................................. 38 Construction of synthetic storm hyetographs........................................................................................................................ 38 Exceedance probability considerations...................................................................................................................... 38 Depth-area adjustment curves............................................................................................................................:....... 39 Application examples................................................................................................................................................ 40 Example 1: "Median-value" example hyetograph for 6-hour storm, Region 1, Montana............................ 41 Example 2: "Design-purpose" example hyetograph for 24-hour storm, 6-hour kernel duration, Region 2, Montana.................................................................................................................... 43 Example 3: "Design-purpose" example hyetograph for 24-hour storm, 48-hour kernel duration, Region 3, Montana and northern Wyoming.............................................................................. 46 Summary ........................................................................................................................_^ 47 Selected references................................................................................................................................................................ 49 Data ......................................................................... 50 CONTENTS iii ILLUSTRATIONS Page Figure 1. Map showing location of precipitation stations, station number, number of storms used at each station, and regional boundaries, Montana and northern Wyoming.................................................................... 4 Figure 2-20. Graph(s) showing: 2. Storm distribution by month, Montana and northern Wyoming.......................................................... 6 3. Different storm macro-patterns............................................................................................................ 8 4. Hyetograph for storm of May 24, 1953 at station 244020, Hays, Montana, Region 2, 24-hour independent duration......................................................................................................... 9 5. Storm distribution by macro-pattern type, Montana and northern Wyoming...................................... 10 6. Variability in time-to-peak precipitation intensity, Montana and northern Wyoming......................... 11 7. Hypothetical storm hyetographs with different high-intensity patterns............................................... 12 8. Dimensionless depth-duration curve for storm of May 24, 1953 at station 244020, Hays, Montana, Region 2.......................................................................................................................... 14 9. Magnitude-frequency characteristics of storms having independent duration of 2 hours, Montana and northern Wyoming.................................................................................................................... 16 10. Magnitude-frequency characteristics of storms having independent duration of 6 hours, Montana and northern Wyoming.................................................................................................................... 17 11. Magnitude-frequency characteristics of storms having independent duration of 24 hours, Montana and northern Wyoming .................................................................................................... 17 12. Dimensionless depth-duration curve for independent duration of 2 hours and exceedance probability of 0.1 in Region 2, Montana......................................................................................... 27 13. Probabilistic depth-duration curves, Region 1, Montana..................................................................... 32 14. Probabilistic depth-duration curves, Region 2, Montana..................................................................... 33 15. Probabilistic depth-duration curves, Region 3, Montana and northern Wyoming............................... 34 16. Probabilistic depth-duration curves for 24-hour storms, 48-hour kernel duration, Montana and northern Wyoming.......................................................................................................................... 37 17. Depth-area adjustment curves for Montana........................................................................................
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