VULNERABILITY AND I M PAC T S A SSESSMENT FOR A DA P TAT I O N P LANNING IN PA N C H A S E M O U N TA I N E C O L O G I C A L R E G I O N , N EPAL IMPLEMENTING AGENCY IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS SUPPORTED BY Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation, Department of Forests UNE P Empowered lives. Resilient nations. VULNERABILITY AND I M PAC T S A SSESSMENT FOR A DA P TAT I O N P LANNING IN PA N C H A S E M O U N TA I N E C O L O G I C A L R E G I O N , N EPAL Copyright © 2015 Mountain EbA Project, Nepal The material in this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit uses, without prior written permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. We would appreciate receiving a copy of any product which uses this publication as a source. Citation: Dixit, A., Karki, M. and Shukla, A. (2015): Vulnerability and Impacts Assessment for Adaptation Planning in Panchase Mountain Ecological Region, Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal: Government of Nepal, United Nations Environment Programme, United Nations Development Programme, International Union for Conservation of Nature, German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety and Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal. ISBN : 978-9937-8519-2-3 Published by: Government of Nepal (GoN), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) and Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal (ISET-N). Authors Ajaya Dixit, Madhav Karki, Ph.D and Ashutosh Shukla Partner Organization CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY V ACKNOWLEDGEMENT VII List OF TABles X List OF Figures IX CHapter I: ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN A CHANGING WORLD 1 Context and starting points 1 Ecosystems in Nepal: Diversity 3 Study objectives and scope 5 CHapter II: PancHase mountain ecological region and services 7 Ecosystem types 7 Ecosystem services 19 Chapter III: VULNERABILITY AND CONCEPUTAL FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSMENT 25 Vulnerability 25 The assessment framework 30 CHapter IV: THE ASSESSMENT PROCESS 33 Future Climate change scenario 43 Presentation in GIS Format 55 CHapter V: EBA STRATEGIES 59 Identification of EbA options 62 CHapter VI: KEY INSIGHTS 67 CHAPTER VII: RECOMMENDATIONS 71 CHAPTER VIII: CONCLUDING COMMENTS 77 REFERENCES 80 ACRONYMS CRF Climate Resilience Framework DNPWC Department of National Park and Wildlife Conservation EbA Ecosystem-based Adaptation GCM Global Climate Model GIS Global Information System GO Government Organization GoN Government of Nepal ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISET Institute for Social and Environmental Transition ISET-N Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LAPA Local Adaptation Plan for Action MAP Medicinal and Aromatic Plants MBT Main Boundary Thrust MCT Main Central Thrust MDO Machapuchhre Development Organization MEA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MoFSC Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation MoSTE Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment NCVST Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team NEA Nepal Electricity Authority NGO Non-governmental Organization NLSS Nepal Living Standard Survey NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NTFP Non-Timber Forest Products OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development PMER Panchase Mountain Ecological Region PPF Panchase Protected Forest SILT SILT Consultant SLD Shared Learning Dialogue UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme VDC Village Development Committee VIA Vulnerability and Impacts Assessment WECS Water and Energy Commission Secretariat WR Western Region WWF World Wildlife Fund EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Panchase Mountain Ecological Region The PMER is one of three global pilot sites for the (PMER) is a unique and rich ecosystem located Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA): Adapting to in Nepal’s Mid Hill region and comprises the Climate Change in Mountain Ecosystem Project 17 Village Development Committees (VDCs) that aims to strengthen ecosystem resilience by of Kaski, Parbat and Syangja districts. The reducing the vulnerability of communities and PMER is part of the country’s Western Region build local institutional capacities. (WR). With enchanting landscapes that offer spectacular views of Himalayan peaks including This report is a presentation of the tools and Annapurna, Dhaulagiri and Machhapuchhre, it methods of a vulnerability and impacts assessment is home to a diverse range of human cultures. (VIA) of both climatic and non-climatic changes Despite being an important ecological zone on ecosystem services and community livelihoods and one of the few ecosystems with both low in the PMER. The assessment was conducted to and highland vegetation of distinct ecotype, develop the information and knowledge needed the PMER has never been a priority for national for human-centered adaptation strategies in order environmental conservation. The core area to develop a sustainable ecosystem management of the PMER has been declared a protected plan for the PMER and its surrounding areas. These forest and is dominated by the subtropical types of strategies would reduce climate risks Schima-Castanopsis tree species and the lower and enhance the resilience of local communities temperate Oak-Laurel forest ranging in altitude and ecosystems. The assessment of the impact from 1 450 to 2 589m above sea level. It is one of of climate change on ecosystem services brings the few ecosystems where lowland and highland together top-down and bottom-up approaches vegetation with distinct ecotypes can be found in to help prepare adaptation plans to ensure the same geographical area. It is home to about maintenance of the quality of ecosystem 62 000 people living in an area of about 284km2 services. The VIA approach is based on the who are dependent on agriculture, forestry and “embedded system- agent-climate exposure” ecotourism for a livelihood. model. It assesses vulnerability by measuring sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity floods, biodiversity degradation and declining at the ward and sub-watershed level of the agricultural productivity. With low to moderate PMER. The approach integrates vulnerability resilience capacity at both agent and system levels, measurement and adaptation-planning tools with there is a need for EbA options, reflecting the needs a step-wise participatory mapping of resources, of the coupled human-ecological system. climatic stresses and capacities. The approach, at both landscape and community levels, used The EbA options were identified through a shared 32 socio-economic, ecological, biophysical and learning dialogue and include (i) mainstreaming institutional indicators to assess vulnerability of climate resilience in eco-tourism; (ii) integrated the PMER wards and sub-watersheds. management of ecosystem services, especially water, forest and non-timber forest products and The results show increasing trends in both resources; (iii) enhancing livelihood opportunities; observed and projected temperatures and the (iv) promoting conservation agriculture; (v) unpredictability of precipitation and extreme wildlife management through habitat protection weather events. A series of ward-level vulnerability and improvement of habitats; and (vi) building maps show a landscape characterized by local human resource capacities and skills. mountain hydrology with moderate-to-high slope gradients and south- and west-facing aspects, The options aim for adaptation to and mitigation moderately exposed to the impact of climate of the negative impact of climate change including change. The combined impact of high-to-moderate loss of agricultural productivity, ecosystem sensitivity and exposure indicates that the human- degradation, habitat fragmentation and the environment system is likely to face moderate occurrence of invasive species. These would help climatic and non-climatic stress such as the drying increase the resilience of local communities and up of water sources, increased landslides and the PMER. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This report received substantial input from Mr. Shrestha and Mr. Pragyajan Y. Rai as well as all Mozaharul Alam of the UNEP Regional Office their colleagues in Kathmandu. Much-needed for Asia Pacific, Bangkok. Comments were also collaboration by Panchase inhabitants and Mr. received from Dr. Robert Monroe and Charlotte Gopal Gurung and his colleagues stationed there, Hicks from the United Nations Environment made this report complete. The services of Suresh Programme World Conservation Monitoring Shrestha of Format Graphic for designing this Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom. Valuable report, with support from Narayanshree Adhikari, support was also provided by Director General Gita Bhomi and Ganga Shrestha of the Institute of Department of Forests, Dr. Rajan Kumar for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal Pokharel (Former Regional Forest Director (ISET-Nepal) are also acknowledged. ISET-Nepal of Western Region), Deputy Director General researchers Kanchan Mani Dixit, Yubaraj Satyal, of Department of Forests, Mr. Gauri Sankar Shobha Yadav, Sristi Silwal, Rabi Wenju, Sravan Timala; Mr. Vijaya P. Singh, Assistant Country Shrestha, Anustha Shrestha, Minakshi