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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Tuesday, October 27, 2015

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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Tuesday, October 27, 2015 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Tuesday, October 27, 2015 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Genaro Arriagada What Does Sunday’s Nonresident Senior Fellow, Venezuela Fires Inter-American Dialogue López Trial Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Election Say About Prosecutor JPMorgan Chase & Co. Venezuela’s attorney general fi red W. Bowman Cutter Former Partner, Argentina’s Politics? the prosecutor who was part of E.M. Warburg Pincus the trial of opposition leader Leop- Dirk Donath oldo López. The prosecutor later Senior Partner, fl ed the country and called the Catterton Aimara trial a “farce.” Marlene Fernández Page 2 Corporate Vice President for Government Relations, Arcos Dorados BUSINESS Peter Hakim President Emeritus, Chile’s Codelco Inter-American Dialogue Cuts Investment Donna Hrinak President, Boeing Latin America Plan Jon Huenemann The state-owned copper company Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, Philip Morris International is cutting its investments amid the global slump in metals prices, James R. Jones Mauricio Macri celebrated with supporters Sunday night after forcing ruling party candidate Co-chair, Manatt Jones Daniel Scioli into a runoff. // Photo: Macri Campaign. said CEO Nelson Pizarro. Global Strategies LLC Page 2 Craig A. Kelly Director, Americas International Center-right Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri won POLITICAL Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil enough votes on Sunday in the fi rst round of Argentina’s John Maisto Attack by ELN Director, U.S. Education presidential election to trigger a runoff against the top Finance Group Q vote-getter, ruling party candidate Daniel Scioli. To what can Rebels Kills 12 Nicolás Mariscal Chairman, Macri attribute his unexpectedly strong showing? What factors between in Colombia Grupo Marhnos now and the runoff on Nov. 22 will decide who is elected in the second Rebels killed 12 members of Thomas F. McLarty III round? Which of the two candidates will receive the bulk of third-place Colombia’s security forces as they President, escorted poll workers and ballots McLarty Associates fi nisher Sergio Massa’s supporters? What other races in Sunday’s elec- to be counted in Boyacá depart- Carlos Paz-Soldan tion in Argentina had most signifi cance? ment. President Juan Manuel Partner, DTB Associates, LLP Santos responded by ordering the military to step up attacks against Beatrice Rangel Claudio Loser, visiting senior fellow at the Inter-American Director, the ELN. AMLA Consulting LLC Dialogue, president of Centennial Group Latin America and Page 2 José Antonio Ríos former head of the Western Hemisphere Department of the Chief Executive Offi cer, Vadium Technology Inc. A International Monetary Fund: “Daniel Scioli won credibly in Gustavo Roosen the fi rst round of elections in Argentina on Sunday. However, this has Chairman of the Board, Envases Venezolanos become the worst defeat for the ruling Peronist Frente para la Victoria Andrés Rozental (FPV), and the pollsters who predicted either an outright victory, or a large President, Rozental & Asociados and Senior difference in the electoral vote. The two percent difference between the Policy Advisor, Chatham House candidates shows a competitive run for the second round. The marginal Shelly Shetty Head, Latin America presidential win and the inconceivable gubernatorial loss in Buenos Aires Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Inc. province (40 percent of the electorate) suggest an end to the FPV reign. Roberto Sifon-Arevalo This is further supported by their loss in the next four largest districts Managing Director, Americas Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, plus the eighth, with a share of about 30 percent of the electorate. Fur- Standard & Poor’s thermore, the FPV lost control of the lower house of Congress. However, Santos // Photo: Colombian Gov- the fi ght ahead is tough. In particular, the followers of the neo-Peronist ernment. Continued on page 2 COPYRIGHT © 2015, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Tuesday, October 27, 2015 POLITICAL NEWS an unoffi cial cease-fi re in recent months and NEWS BRIEFS recently announced a breakthrough in their Colombian Rebels three-year peace talks. The government and Venezuela Fires López the FARC last month set a March deadline for Trial Prosecutor Kill 12 in Ambush a fi nal peace deal. The FARC has called for the ELN to participate in the peace talks, and Venezuela’s attorney general announced Monday that she has fi red prosecutor Franklin National Liberation Army, or ELN, rebels on speculation has risen recently that Santos Nieves who participated in the case against Monday killed 12 members of Colombia’s secu- was close to engaging in talks with the ELN, opposition leader Leopoldo López. The prose- rity forces in an ambush as they were escorting the newspaper reported. However, Monday’s cutor then fl ed the country and called the trial poll workers and ballots to be counted after ambush appears to have put an end to that a “farce,” BBC News reported. Nieves posted a local elections the previous day, said Defense speculation, at least temporarily. “For the ELN video online in which he apologized for his role Minister Luis Carlos Villegas, BBC News re- and all of those who don’t accept the path to in the case. Attorney General Luisa Ortega Diaz ported. The attack resulted in the deaths of 11 peace, the message is clear,” said Santos. “We denied that offi cials were pressured to provide soldiers and one police offi cer, said Villegas. will confront them with the full weight and false evidence against López. Six others, including poll workers and a local power of our armed forces.” guide, were missing, the defense minister added. The ambush happened just after the group left an indigenous reservation near the BUSINESS NEWS Regulator Considering town of Güicán, in Boyacá department. “This Sanctions Against attack shows that ELN does not understand LetterOne Investing OHL Mexico that this is a time for peace, not a time for war,” Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said $4 Bn in Brazil’s Oi Mexico’s stock regulator (CNBV) is studying in a statement Monday night, The Washington possible sanctions against a unit of Spanish Post reported. “If the ELN thinks that these Russian billionaire and head of investment fi rm construction group OHL after videos were actions will help raise its political profi le and LetterOne, Mikhail Fridman, has pledged to released in May that show top OHL Mexico strengthen its bargaining position, it is totally invest $4 billion in Brazilian telecommunication executives discussing overcharging on a gov- mistaken.” Santos added that he has ordered company Oi, pending a merger between Oi ernment contract, Reuters reported Monday. the military to step up strikes against the ELN and Tim Participações, a local unit of Telecom CNVB alleges that OHL Mexico did not follow in response to the attack. The attack put an Italia, MarketWatch reported Monday. Despite proper accounting and securities rules and did end to a period of relative calm in Colombia as Brazil’s market being marred by a recession, not report updated traffi c levels for its highway the government and the Revolutionary Armed infl ation and a weakening currency, the mobile concessions. OHL has already responded to Forces of Colombia, or FARC, have observed phone market is booming, and smartphone some of the allegations, and denied involve- ment. The company said the recordings had FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 been manipulated. Massa are diffi cult to predict. The mostly Alberto Bernal, head of re- self-infl icted poor economic performance, search at Bulltick Capital Mar- the aggressive use of raw power and clien- kets in Miami: “The impressive Codelco Cuts Five-Year telism, and the allegations of corruption and A performance showed by PRO Investment Plan drug dealing are rejected by the Argentine candidate Mauricio Macri on Sunday will go Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper mining middle-class. But Peronists are attracted by down in history as one of the most benevo- company, cut its fi ve-year investment plan amid power, and they will go for the one candidate lent surprises ever recorded in Argentina. All a slump in global copper prices, Bloomberg who promises the most credible access of the polls were showing that the uncer- News reported Monday, citing CEO Nelson to it. Kirchnerism is not credible in this tainty over the race was not whether Daniel Pizarro. Changes to the company’s invest- regard, and Macri, while a coalition person, Scioli would win the election, but rather if he ment plan, which had been designed to avoid may seem too far removed from Peronist would receive enough support to win in the a slump in production, are mostly technical. populism. But the economy or scandals may fi rst round. No one was expecting to see a Codelco will still request the same amount of worsen, and that will certainly move more competitive race, which is exactly what we funding from the Chilean government, although people to Macri’s camp. However, a clear got on Sunday. The strong showing of Macri the government has requested more infor- case cannot be made until the dust of this is likely a function of the materialization mation before deciding on funding, Finance storm settles.” of a democratic reaction to the ‘need for Minister Rodrigo Valdés said. Continued on page 4 COPYRIGHT © 2015, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Tuesday, October 27, 2015 penetration is expected to grow by at least 10 percent this year in Brazil, according to COMINGS & GOINGS Bloomberg News. “Having substantial funds to invest, LetterOne is interested in large markets where opportunities for consolidation exist,” Argentine Cabinet Chief Loses Gubernatorial Race said Sergey Libin, an analyst at ZAO Raiffeisen- Argentine Cabinet Chief Aníbal Fernández on Monday acknowledged defeat to María Eugenia bank.
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