DOCSLIB.ORG

Pathways to Net-Zero: Decarbonising the Gas Networks in Great Britain

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Pathways to Net-Zero: Decarbonising the Gas Networks in Great Britain Pathways to Net-Zero: Decarbonising the Gas Networks in Great Britain Prepared for: Energy Networks Association Submitted by: Navigant Europe Ltd. 5th Floor, Woolgate Exchange 25 Basinghall Street London EC2V 5HA +44 20 3880 0800 navigant.com Reference No.: 207594 21 October 2019 Confidential and Proprietary ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Do not distribute or copy Pathways to Net-Zero: Decarbonising the Gas Networks in Great Britain TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................ iv 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Role of Gas Today .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Climate Change Context ......................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Project Overview ..................................................................................................................... 1 2. 2050 ENERGY SYSTEM ....................................................................................... 3 2.1 Modelling Approach ................................................................................................................ 3 2.1.1 Sectoral Scope ........................................................................................................... 3 2.1.2 Geographic Scope ...................................................................................................... 3 2.1.3 GHG Emissions .......................................................................................................... 4 2.2 2050 Scenarios ....................................................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 Scenario Definitions .................................................................................................... 4 2.2.2 Annual Energy Supply ................................................................................................ 6 2.2.3 Peak Energy Supply ................................................................................................... 8 2.2.4 Total Energy System Cost .......................................................................................... 9 3. PATHWAY TO A DECARBONISED ENERGY SYSTEM .................................... 11 3.1 Preparing for Transition ......................................................................................................... 13 3.1.1 Gas Safety, Metering and Billing Regulations .......................................................... 14 3.1.2 Trials and Certification of Key Technologies ............................................................ 15 3.1.3 Policy, Commercial Models and Funding Mechanisms ............................................ 16 3.1.4 Skills and Labour Capacity ....................................................................................... 19 3.1.5 Raise Awareness of the Transition to Net-Zero ....................................................... 19 3.2 Facilitating Connections ........................................................................................................ 20 3.2.1 Standardise Connection Requirements for Low Carbon Gas Production ................ 21 3.2.2 Implement Grid Capacity Solutions to Facilitate Biomethane Injection .................... 21 3.2.3 Biomethane Deployment in Off-Grid Buildings ......................................................... 22 3.2.4 Reducing Fugitive Methane Emissions .................................................................... 22 3.2.5 Network Planning for GB Gas Grid Infrastructure Needs ......................................... 23 3.2.6 Demonstration of Hydrogen Production with CCUS ................................................ 24 3.2.7 Deployment of Low Carbon Heat Systems .............................................................. 24 3.3 Expanding Supply ................................................................................................................. 28 3.3.1 Anchor Hydrogen End-Users ................................................................................... 29 3.3.2 Small-Scale Hydrogen Storage ................................................................................ 30 3.3.3 Hydrogen-Ready Appliance Roll-Out ....................................................................... 30 3.3.4 Biomethane Supply via Anaerobic Digestion ........................................................... 33 3.3.5 Demonstrate Bio-SNG Production Technology ........................................................ 33 3.4 Expanding the Demand Base ............................................................................................... 35 3.4.1 Hydrogen Blending for Flexible Network Management ............................................ 35 3.4.2 Creating Hydrogen Clusters ..................................................................................... 36 3.4.3 Hydrogen Clusters .................................................................................................... 37 3.4.4 Large-Scale Hydrogen Storage ................................................................................ 38 Confidential and Proprietary Page i ©2019 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Do not distribute or copy Pathways to Net-Zero: Decarbonising the Gas Networks in Great Britain 3.4.5 Bio-SNG Commercialisation ..................................................................................... 39 3.5 Increasing Low Carbon Gases .............................................................................................. 40 3.5.1 Changing Hydrogen Production Profile .................................................................... 40 3.5.2 Creating Larger Hydrogen Zones ............................................................................. 41 3.5.3 Biomethane in Transport .......................................................................................... 42 3.6 100% Low Carbon Gases ..................................................................................................... 45 3.6.1 Role of Gas Interconnections ................................................................................... 46 3.6.2 Regional Summaries ................................................................................................ 47 3.6.3 End-User Perspectives: Industry .............................................................................. 48 3.6.4 End-User Perspectives: Buildings ............................................................................ 49 4. IMPACTS ALONG THE PATHWAY .................................................................... 50 4.1 Gas Quantities....................................................................................................................... 50 4.1.1 Network Gas Quantities ............................................................................................ 50 4.1.2 End-Consumption Quantities ................................................................................... 51 4.1.3 Low Carbon and Renewable Gas Production .......................................................... 52 4.2 Energy System Costs ............................................................................................................ 55 4.3 Gas Network Operations ....................................................................................................... 56 4.4 Carbon Emissions ................................................................................................................. 56 4.5 End-User Interventions ......................................................................................................... 58 5. PATHWAY CHALLENGES ................................................................................. 60 5.1 Commercial Viability of CCUS .............................................................................................. 61 5.2 Biomass Import Availability ................................................................................................... 62 5.3 Hydrogen Production Costs .................................................................................................. 64 5.4 Industrial Adoption of Hydrogen ............................................................................................ 65 5.5 Building Renovation .............................................................................................................. 66 5.6 Network Configuration ........................................................................................................... 66 Appendix A. EXPERT ADVISORY GROUP ENGAGEMENT ................................A-1 1. Workshops ............................................................................................................................ A-1 A.1.1 EAG Workshop 1. (London – 23 March 2019) ................................................... A-1 A.1.2 EAG Workshop 2. (London – 01 May 2019) ...................................................... A-1 A.1.3 EAG Workshop 3. (London – 20 June 2019) ..................................................... A-2 2. Other stakeholder engagement ............................................................................................. A-3 Appendix B. INFO-GRAPHICS ..............................................................................B-1 Appendix C. LOW CARBON
Load more

Recommended publications
  • A Vision for Scotland's Electricity and Gas Networks
    A vision for Scotland’s electricity and gas networks DETAIL 2019 - 2030 A vision for scotland’s electricity and gas networks 2 CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: SUPPORTING OUR ENERGY SYSTEM 03 The policy context 04 Supporting wider Scottish Government policies 07 The gas and electricity networks today 09 CHAPTER 2: DEVELOPING THE NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE 13 Electricity 17 Gas 24 CHAPTER 3: COORDINATING THE TRANSITION 32 Regulation and governance 34 Whole system planning 36 Network funding 38 CHAPTER 4: SCOTLAND LEADING THE WAY – INNOVATION AND SKILLS 39 A vision for scotland’s electricity and gas networks 3 CHAPTER 1: SUPPORTING OUR ENERGY SYSTEM A vision for scotland’s electricity and gas networks 4 SUPPORTING OUR ENERGY SYSTEM Our Vision: By 2030… Scotland’s energy system will have changed dramatically in order to deliver Scotland’s Energy Strategy targets for renewable energy and energy productivity. We will be close to delivering the targets we have set for 2032 for energy efficiency, low carbon heat and transport. Our electricity and gas networks will be fundamental to this progress across Scotland and there will be new ways of designing, operating and regulating them to ensure that they are used efficiently. The policy context The energy transition must also be inclusive – all parts of society should be able to benefit. The Scotland’s Energy Strategy sets out a vision options we identify must make sense no matter for the energy system in Scotland until 2050 – what pathways to decarbonisation might targeting a sustainable and low carbon energy emerge as the best. Improving the efficiency of system that works for all consumers.
    [Show full text]
  • The Potential Socio-Economic Implications of Licensing the Sea 5 Area
    THE POTENTIAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF LICENSING THE SEA 5 AREA A REPORT for the DEPARTMENT OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY by MACKAY CONSULTANTS June 2004 CONTENTS Section 1 : Introduction 2 : DTI scenarios 3 : The society and economy of the SEA 5 area 4 : Existing facilities and activity in the area 5 : Implications for oil and gas production and reserves 6 : Implications for capital, operating and decommissioning expenditure 7 : Implications for existing facilities 8 : Implications for employment 9 : Implications for tax revenues 10 : Social implications 11 : Conclusions Mackay Consultants Albyn House Union Street Inverness IV1 1QA Tel: 01463 223200 Fax: 01463 230869 e-mail: [email protected] The Potential Socio-Economic Implications of Licensing the SEA 5 Area A Report 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 The UK Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is conducting a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of licensing parts of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) for oil and gas exploration and production. This SEA 5 is the fifth in a series planned by the DTI, which will, in stages, cover the whole of the UKCS. 1.2 The SEA 5 area is shown on the map on the following page. It is the area between the SEA 2 and SEA 4 areas. It extends from north of the Shetland Islands down the whole east coast of Scotland to the border with England. 1.3 Mackay Consultants were asked by Geotek Ltd and Hartley Anderson Ltd, on behalf of the DTI, to assess the socio-economic implications of licensing the SEA 5 area. This report sets out the results of our work, in relation to • oil and gas production, and reserves • capital, operating and decommissioning expenditure • employment • tax revenue • social impacts.
    [Show full text]
  • Human Environment Baseline.Pdf
    Moray Offshore Renewables Limited - Environmental Statement Telford, Stevenson and MacColl Offshore Wind Farms and Transmission Infrastructure 5 Human Environment 5.1 Commercial Fisheries 5.1 5.1.1 Introduction 5.1.1.1 This chapter summarises the baseline study of commercial fishing activities, including salmon and sea trout fisheries, in the vicinity of the three proposed development sites (Telford, Stevenson and MacColl) and the offshore transmission infrastructure (OfTI). For the purpose of this study, commercial fishing is defined as CHAPTER any legal fishing activity undertaken for declared taxable profit. 5.1.1.2 The following technical appendices support this chapter and can be found as: Technical Appendix 4.3 B (Salmon and Sea Trout Ecology Technical Report). Technical Appendix 5.1 A (Commercial Fisheries Technical Report). 5.1.1.3 For the purposes of this assessment, salmon and sea trout fisheries in the Moray Firth are separately addressed to other commercial fisheries, as a result of their being located largely in-river (with the exception of some coastal netting) and being different in nature to the majority of marine commercial fishing activities. In addition, due to the migratory behaviour of salmon and sea trout, fisheries have been assessed for all rivers flowing into the Moray Firth. It is also recognised that salmon is a qualifying feature or primary reason for Special Area of Conservation (SAC) site selection of the following rivers in the Moray Firth: Berriedale and Langwell Waters SAC (primary reason); River Moriston
    [Show full text]
  • Global Gas Security Review 2018 Foreword
    Global Gas Security Review Meeting Challenges in a Fast Changing Market 2018 Global Gas Security Review Meeting Challenges in a Fast Changing Market 2018 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 7 association countries and beyond. The four main areas of IEA focus are: n Energy Security: Promoting diversity, efficiency, flexibility and reliability for all fuels and energy sources; n Economic Development: Supporting free markets to foster economic growth and eliminate energy poverty; n Environmental Awareness: Analysing policy options to offset the impact of energy production and use on the environment, especially for tackling climate change and air pollution; and n Engagement Worldwide: Working closely with association and partner countries, especially major emerging economies, to find solutions to shared energy and environmental IEA member countries: concerns. Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Secure Hungary Sustainable Ireland Together Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2018 Spain International Energy Agency Sweden Website: www.iea.org Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions The European Commission that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are also participates in available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ the work of the IEA.
    [Show full text]
  • Cde6 National Grid Noa 17-18
    Viking Link: UK Onshore Scheme Planning Appeal Core Document Reference 16.11 National Grid Network Options Assessment (NOA) 2017-18 Network Options Assessment 2017/18 UK electricity transmission JANUARY 2018 Network Options Assessment 2017/18 – January 2018 01 How to use this interactive document To help you find the information you need quickly and easily we have published NOA as an interactive document. Home A to Z This will take you to the contents page. You will find a link to the glossary You can click on the titles to navigate on each page. to a section. Hyperlinks Arrows Hyperlinks are highlighted in bold Click on the arrows to move throughout the report. You can click backwards or forwards a page. on them to access further information. Network Options Assessment 2017/18 – January 2018 02 For the past couple of years our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) publication has highlighted how we are in the midst of an energy revolution. Our Network Options Assessment (NOA) publication, along with our other System Operator (SO) publications, aims to help our industry ensure a secure, sustainable and affordable energy future. We publish the NOA as part of Investment decision our SO role. The NOA describes The SO considered the investment the major projects considered options proposed by the to meet the future needs in GB’s Transmission Owners. A couple electricity transmission system of the highlights are: as outlined in the Electricity Ten • Recommendation for investment Year Statement (ETYS) 2017, and of £21.6m in 2018/19 across recommends which investments 22 projects to potentially deliver in the year ahead would best projects worth almost £3.2bn.
    [Show full text]
  • Hydrogen-Assessment-Project-Appendix.Pdf
    SCOTTISH HYDROGEN ASSESSMENT - SECTION TITLE DECEMBER 2020 SCOTTISH HYDROGEN ASSESSMENT Supporting Appendices 1 SCOTTISH HYDROGEN ASSESSMENT -APPENDIX- SECTION SECTION - TITLEAPPENDIX TITLE CONTENTS APPENDIX CONTENTS A1 APPENDIX TO SECTION 3 SCOTTISH HYDROGEN ECONOMY A1.1 Description of Scottish hydrogen projects A2 APPENDIX TO SECTION 4 HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGY A2.1 Energy to hydrogen conversion fact checker A2.2 Hydrogen technology descriptions A2.3 Innovation and academia A3 APPENDIX TO SECTION 6 SCENARIOS A3.1 Exploring scenarios A3.2 Creating the final three scenarios A4 APPENDIX TO SECTION 7 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT A4.1 Overview and purpose A4.2 Approach taken A4.3 Model implementation A4.4 Figure reference tables A4.5 Supply chain capabilities A5 REFERENCES 2 SCOTTISH HYDROGEN ASSESSMENT - SECTION TITLE SCOTTISH HYDROGEN ASSESSMENT PROJECT APPENDIX 1 Scottish Hydrogen Economy 3 SCOTTISH HYDROGEN ASSESSMENT - APPENDIX 1 A1.1 DESCRIPTION OF SCOTTISH HYDROGEN PROJECTS NO. PROJECT NAME PROJECT DESCRIPTION 01 Project Acorn1 Project Acorn comprises of two elements: a hydrogen production plant and a CCUS storage facility, which is expected to be the first in the UK. The production plant will be a 200 MW low carbon hydrogen plant using Johnson Matthey technology, which will blend hydrogen into the National Transmission System at St Fergus. Blending into the gas network will start at 2% and increasing to 100% conversation of the local network (Aberdeen and Moray), ultimately decarbonising the gas at St Fergus Gas Terminal and providing hydrogen for power generation. The CCUS transport and storage facility will make use of three redundant pipelines (Miller Gas Pipeline, Goldeneye Pipeline and Atlantic Pipeline) and will deliver a CCUS project, to sequestrate carbon dioxide from multiple sources, expected to be St Fergus Gas Terminal, Peterhead Power Station and Grangemouth Industrial Cluster (via the NTS pipeline).
    [Show full text]
  • OTHER USERS and MATERIAL ASSETS (INFRASTRUCTURE, OTHER NATURAL RESOURCES) A3h.1 INTRODUCTION
    Offshore Energy SEA APPENDIX 3h – OTHER USERS AND MATERIAL ASSETS (INFRASTRUCTURE, OTHER NATURAL RESOURCES) A3h.1 INTRODUCTION The coasts and seas of the UK are intensively used for numerous activities of local, regional and national importance including coastally located power generators and process industries, port operations, shipping, oil and gas production, fishing, aggregate extraction, military practice, as a location for submarine cables and pipelines and for sailing, racing and other recreation. At a local scale, activities as diverse as saltmarsh, dune or machair grazing, seaweed harvesting or bait collection may be important. These activities necessarily interact at the coast and offshore and spatial conflicts can potentially arise. A key consideration of this SEA is the potential for plan elements to interact with other users and material assets, the nature and location of which are described below. A3h.2 PORTS AND SHIPPING A3h.2.1 Commercial ports UK ports are located around the coast, with their origin based on historic considerations including, principally, advantageous geography (major and other ports are indicated in Figure A3h.1 below). In 2007, some 582 million tonnes (Mt) of freight traffic was handled by UK ports, a slight decrease (ca. 2Mt) from that handled in 2006. The traffic handled in ports in England, Scotland and Wales was very similar in 2006 and 2007, differing by less than 0.5%. However, ports in Northern Ireland handled 2.5% less traffic in 2007, compared to in 2006. Over the last ten years, since 1997, inward traffic to UK ports has increased by 21% and outward traffic has decreased by 15%.
    [Show full text]
  • Project: ACT Acorn Feasibility Study
    Project: ACT Acorn Feasibility Study Terms of Use The ACT Acorn Consortium partners reserve all rights in this material and retain full copyright. Any reference to this material or use of the material must include full acknowledgement of the source of the material, including the reports full title and its authors. The material contains third party IP, used in accordance with those third party’s terms and credited as such where appropriate. Any subsequent reference to this third party material must also reference its original source. The material is made available in the interest of progressing CCS by sharing this ACT work done on the Acorn project. Pale Blue Dot Energy reserve all rights over the use of the material in connection with the development of the Acorn Project. In the event of any questions over the use of this material please contact [email protected]. Acorn D03 Basis of Design for St Fergus Facilities 10196ACTC-Rep-06-01 January 2018 www.actacorn.eu with input from ACT Acorn, project 271500, has received funding from BEIS (UK), RCN (NO) and RVO (NL), and is co-funded by the European Commission under the ERA- Net instrument of the Horizon 2020 programme. ACT Grant number 691712. D03 Basis of Design for St Fergus Facilities Contents Contents Document Summary Client Research Council of Norway & Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy Project Title Accelerating CCS Technologies: Acorn Project Title: D03 Basis of Design for St Fergus Facilities Distribution: Classification: Client Confidential Date of Issue: 30th November 2017 Name Role Prepared by: Sam Gomersall Commercial Director Approved by: Steve Murphy Finance Director Rev Date Description Issued By Checked By Approved By V01 08/01/2018 First Issue C Hartley T Dumenil S Murphy Disclaimer: While the authors consider that the data and opinions contained in this report are sound, all parties must rely upon their own skill and judgement when using it.
    [Show full text]
  • EET/S3/09/6/A ECONOMY, ENERGY and TOURISM COMMITTEE AGENDA 6Th Meeting, 2009 (Session 3) Wednesday 25 February 2009 the Committe
    EET/S3/09/6/A ECONOMY, ENERGY AND TOURISM COMMITTEE AGENDA 6th Meeting, 2009 (Session 3) Wednesday 25 February 2009 The Committee will meet at 9.30 am in Committee Room 6. 1. Determining and delivering Scotland's energy future (in private): The Committee will agree lines of questioning. 2. Determining and delivering Scotland's energy future Inquiry: The Committee will take evidence on changing consumer behaviour and reducing energy demand in the industrial and public sectors from— Dr Jill Anable, Senior Lecturer in Transport, The Centre for Transport Research; Phil Matthews, Senior Policy Advisor, Sustainable Development Commission Scotland; Mrs Jennifer Macleod, West Alness Residents Association; Jon Cape, Managing Director, Renew Services Ltd; Madeleine Hallward, Head of Public Affairs, Energy Retail Association; and then from— Niall Stuart, Press and Government Affairs Manager, Scottish Council for Development and Industry; Brendan Dick, Director, BT Scotland; Michael Alexander, Head of Corporate Relations Scotland, Diageo; Ken Richardson, Chemical Industry Association; and then from— EET/S3/09/6/A Angela Cullen, Director of Public Reporting (Central Government), Mark Roberts, Portfolio Manager (Central Government), and Susan Lovatt, Project Manager (Central Government), Audit Scotland. 3. Joint seminar with the Scottish Trades Union Congress: The Committee will discuss the recent seminar with the STUC and any follow-up actions, including the next 'hearing' on the state of the Scottish economy. 4. Decision on taking business in private:
    [Show full text]
  • Electricity Ten Year Statement 2017
    Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2017 Statement Year Electricity Ten Future Energy Scenarios July 2017 a c Electricity Ten Year Statement 2017 UK electricity transmission November 2017 NOVEMBER 2017 Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2017 How to use this interactive document To help you find the information you need quickly and easily we have published the ETYS as an interactive document. Home A to Z This will take you to the contents page. You will find a link to the glossary You can click on the titles to navigate on each page. to a section. Hyperlinks Arrows Hyperlinks are underlined and highlighted Click on the arrows to move in the chapter colour throughout the backwards or forwards a page. report. You can click on them to access further information. Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2017 01 We are in the midst of an energy revolution. The economic landscape, developments in technology and consumer behaviour are changing at an unprecedented rate, creating more opportunities than ever for our industry. Our Electricity Ten Year We will assess the options for network Statement, along with our other reinforcement through our Network System Operator publications, Options Assessment (NOA). The aims to encourage and inform NOA aims to make sure that the debate, leading to changes that transmission system is continuously ensure a secure, sustainable developed in a timely, economic and and affordable energy future. efficient way, providing value for our customers. The NOA 2016/17, using Your views, knowledge and insight the assessment results from ETYS have shaped the publication. Thank 2016, recommended £83 million of you for this valuable input over the development spend on future network past year.
    [Show full text]
  • Review of the Future Homes Standard
    Review of the Future Homes Standard June 2021 Disclaimer This report (Report) was prepared by Ernst & Young LLP for the Independent Networks Association using information provided by the Independent Networks Association, interviews with representatives from industry participants and publicly available data. Ernst & Young LLP does not accept or assume any responsibility in respect of the Report to any readers of the Report (Third Parties), other than the Independent Networks Association. To the fullest extent permitted by Scott Fotheringham law, Ernst & Young LLP will accept no liability in respect of Director the Report to any Third Parties. Should any Third Parties Strategy and Transactions — choose to rely on the Report, then they do so at their Energy Sector own risk. M: +44 7384 908 425 Ernst & Young LLP has not been instructed by its client, E: [email protected] the Independent Networks Association, to respond to queries or requests for information from any Third Party and Ernst & Young LLP shall not respond to such queries or requests for information. Further Ernst & Young LLP is Tim Bunnell not instructed by the Independent Networks Association Partner to update the Report for subsequent events or additional Strategy and Transactions — work (if any) performed by Ernst & Young LLP. Accordingly, Energy Sector without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, Ernst & Young LLP accepts no responsibility to any Third M: +44 7824 897 141 Party to update the Report for such matters. E: [email protected] Ernst & Young LLP reserves all rights in the Report. Contents Executive summary 2 1. Introduction 12 1.1 Background 15 1.2 Purpose of this report 15 1.3 Structure of this report 16 2.
    [Show full text]
  • The Scottish Council
    SUBMISSION FROM SCOTTISH COUNCIL FOR DEVELOPMENT AND INDUSTRY Introduction 1. SCDI members welcome the inquiry on “Determining and Delivering Scotland’s Energy Future”. Energy is at present the top public policy priority for many in the Scottish economy. However, this inquiry is the latest in a plethora of inquiries, reviews and consultations in recent years. Discussions with SCDI members have revealed significant frustration that these are appearing more frequently and have an ever shorter shelf life, set out to determine the energy future but succeed neither in delivering short term action nor long term clarity, and often put the politics of the debate before the policy. The success of this inquiry report will be judged on whether action follows and on the durability of its influence. Committee members must be prepared to follow the evidence and agree positions which are independent of party policy. 2. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that world energy demand is predicted to increase by 55% between 2005 and 2030, with much of this growth in China and India. Demand will be overwhelmingly met by fossil fuels (84 per cent) and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions will rise by 57%. While debate on “peak oil” continues, the IEA has already said that the world “faces an unsustainable energy future if governments do not radically change their energy policies in the next 10 years.” The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change estimated that if there is no international action on climate change, the overall costs and risks will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever.
    [Show full text]