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Global Gas Security Review 2018 Foreword

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Global Gas Security Review Meeting Challenges in a Fast Changing Market 2018 Global Gas Security Review Meeting Challenges in a Fast Changing Market 2018 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 7 association countries and beyond. The four main areas of IEA focus are: n Energy Security: Promoting diversity, efficiency, flexibility and reliability for all fuels and energy sources; n Economic Development: Supporting free markets to foster economic growth and eliminate energy poverty; n Environmental Awareness: Analysing policy options to offset the impact of energy production and use on the environment, especially for tackling climate change and air pollution; and n Engagement Worldwide: Working closely with association and partner countries, especially major emerging economies, to find solutions to shared energy and environmental IEA member countries: concerns. Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Secure Hungary Sustainable Ireland Together Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2018 Spain International Energy Agency Sweden Website: www.iea.org Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions The European Commission that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are also participates in available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ the work of the IEA. © OECD/IEA 2018 Global Gas Security Review 2018 Foreword Foreword Since the foundation of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 1974, energy security has been one of its core missions. But in the nearly forty-five years of its existence, the global energy landscape has changed, evolving to a more complex and interdependent system in which local energy security issues can have global consequences. Page | 3 The IEA, too, has changed, opening the doors of the IEA family to new partners: last year Brazil joined as our seventh Association country and, earlier this year, Mexico became our 30th member country. This global expansion makes our energy security mission even more urgent. In a more complex global environment, with an expanded IEA family, energy security is more relevant than ever. The annual Global Gas Security Review is a concrete manifestation of this mission, following the mandate given by our IEA member countries in 2015, and reinforced by the Group of Seven (G7) countries under the presidency of Japan in 2016. This year’s report shows that concerns about energy security in the global gas market are as present as ever. For example, the recent and unprecedented growth in natural gas demand from fast-growing economies has also brought to light new supply issues, with supply shortfalls experienced in the People’s Republic of China last winter that resulted in higher prices for most other gas importers. Furthermore, while we can see real improvement in liquefied natural gas (LNG) flexibility, which keeps on growing and contributes to easing supply shortages, uncertainties remain for the future evolution of gas markets. This brings a risk of tightening from insufficient investment in production and infrastructure capacity. It also highlights the uncertainty surrounding future shipping capacity growth, a precondition to maintaining LNG market flexibility. This issue could affect price volatility and therefore hurt consumers – especially the most price-sensitive emerging buyers – and cause additional security concerns. This report aims at contributing to a better understanding of gas security of supply by providing more transparency on LNG markets and their role in global gas system balancing. It is my hope that it will be a useful and positive tool for policy makers and market stakeholders and support efforts to ensure greater energy security worldwide. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency Global Gas Security Review 2018 © OECD/IEA 2018 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Global Gas Security Review 2018 was prepared by the Gas, Coal and Power Markets Division (GCP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The analysis was lead and co-ordinated by Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil. Gergely Molnár, Cristina Morillas Sendín, Tomoko Uesawa, Masamichi Page | 4 Wada and Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil are the authors. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of the IEA Energy Markets and Security (EMS) Directorate, and Peter Fraser, Head of GCP, provided expert guidance and advice. Valuable comments, data and feedback were received from within the IEA from David Bénazéraf, Lucie Girard, Tim Gould, Olivier Lejeune, Aad van Bohemen, László Varró and Lei Yang. Timely and comprehensive data from the Energy Data Centre were fundamental to the review. The IEA Communication and Information Office (CIO) also provided editorial and production guidance. Rebecca Gaghen, Astrid Dumond, Jad Mouawad, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin, Bertrand Sadin and Therese Walsh made this publication possible. Justin French-Brooks edited the review and Anne Mayne handled the initial layout. The review was made possible by assistance from Enagás, Mitsubishi Corporation and Tokyo Gas. Many experts from outside the IEA provided inputs and/or reviewed the report: Daisuke Aoki MOL Laurent David Total Jefferson Edwards Shell Keisuke Fujita NYK Volker Kraayvanger Uniper Domenico Maggi Snam Wolfgang Peters The Gas Value Chain Gregor Pett Uniper Xavier Rousseau Snam María Sicilia Enagás Stefan Vos de Vael Shell Tatsuro Watanabe MOL The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgements it contains. Any error or omission is the sole responsibility of the IEA. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to: Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil ([email protected]) © OECD/IEA 2018 Global Gas Security Review 2018 Table of contents Table of contents Executive summary........................................................................................................................... 9 1. Recent natural gas market developments and related security of supply issues .................... 13 Gas security events in China during 2017/18 .............................................................................. 13 Page | 5 Causes of 2017 natural gas demand growth and winter imbalance ....................................... 14 Handling the supply shortfall .................................................................................................. 18 Consequences of the natural gas shortage ............................................................................. 21 Gas security events in Europe during winter 2017/18 ................................................................ 28 12 December 2017 – the “perfect storm” in Europe .............................................................. 28 Cold spell during February 2018 – The “Beast from the East” ................................................ 31 Ukraine’s gas crisis on 1 March 2018 ...................................................................................... 34 References ................................................................................................................................... 37 2. Update on LNG market flexibility metrics ................................................................................. 43 2017 LNG supply availability – LNG plant capacity analysis ........................................................ 43 2017 – A year of improvement in plant reliability .................................................................. 44 Capacity increase often causes unplanned teething problems .............................................. 45 Smaller number of FIDs increases risk of a tighter market ..................................................... 46 Utilisation analysis: Improvement in maintenance activities ................................................ 47 2017 LNG market flexibility – Portfolio player analysis .............................................................. 49 Global portfolio players as a major supply source .................................................................. 50 Shorter, smaller volumes sourced, creating more flexibility .................................................. 51 Portfolio players supplement LNG plant availability ............................................................... 52 Where do portfolio cargoes go to? ......................................................................................... 53 How LNG contracts have evolved ............................................................................................... 54 Analysis of contract flexibility ................................................................................................. 54 Medium-term flexibility outlook ............................................................................................. 55 Medium-term price indexation outlook .................................................................................. 58 References ..................................................................................................................................
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