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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945. T939. 311 rolls. (~A complete list of rolls has been added.) Roll Volumes Dates 1 1-3 January-June, 1910 2 4-5 July-October, 1910 3 6-7 November, 1910-February, 1911 4 8-9 March-June, 1911 5 10-11 July-October, 1911 6 12-13 November, 1911-February, 1912 7 14-15 March-June, 1912 8 16-17 July-October, 1912 9 18-19 November, 1912-February, 1913 10 20-21 March-June, 1913 11 22-23 July-October, 1913 12 24-25 November, 1913-February, 1914 13 26 March-April, 1914 14 27 May-June, 1914 15 28-29 July-October, 1914 16 30-31 November, 1914-February, 1915 17 32 March-April, 1915 18 33 May-June, 1915 19 34-35 July-October, 1915 20 36-37 November, 1915-February, 1916 21 38-39 March-June, 1916 22 40-41 July-October, 1916 23 42-43 November, 1916-February, 1917 24 44 March-April, 1917 25 45 May-June, 1917 26 46 July-August, 1917 27 47 September-October, 1917 28 48 November-December, 1917 29 49-50 Jan. 1-Mar. 15, 1918 30 51-53 Mar. 16-Apr. 30, 1918 31 56-59 June 1-Aug. 15, 1918 32 60-64 Aug. 16-0ct. 31, 1918 33 65-69 Nov. 1', 1918-Jan. 15, 1919 34 70-73 Jan. 16-Mar. 31, 1919 35 74-77 April-May, 1919 36 78-79 June-July, 1919 37 80-81 August-September, 1919 38 82-83 October-November, 1919 39 84-85 December, 1919-January, 1920 40 86-87 February-March, 1920 41 88-89 April-May, 1920 42 90 June, 1920 43 91 July, 1920 44 92 August, 1920 45 93 September, 1920 46 94 October, 1920 47 95-96 November, 1920 48 97-98 December, 1920 49 99-100 Jan. -
Thirty-Second Annual List of Papers
1923.] LIST OF PUBLISHED PAPERS 485 THIRTY-SECOND ANNUAL LIST OF PAPERS READ BEFORE THE AMERICAN MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY AND SUBSEQUENTLY PUBLISHED, INCLUDING REFERENCES TO THE PLACES OF PUBLICATION ALEXANDER, J. W. A proof and extension of the Jordan-Brouwer separa tion theorem. Read April 29, 1916. Transactions of this Society, vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 333-349; June, 1922. Invariant points of a surface transformation of given class. Read Dec. 28, 1922. Transactions of this Society, vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 173- 184; April, 1923. BARNETT, I. A. Differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 172-190; July, 1922. Linear partial differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918, and April 24, 1920. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 42-53; Jan., 1923. BELL, E. T. On restricted systems of higher indeterminate equations. Read (San Francisco) June 18, 1920. Transactions of this Society, vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 483-488; Oct., 1921. Anharmonic polynomial generalizations of the numbers of Bernoulli and Euler. Read (San Francisco) April 9, 1921. Transactions of this Society, vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 89-112; Sept., 1922. Periodicities in the theory of partitions. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Annals of Mathematics, (2), vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 1-22; Sept., 1922. Relations between the numbers of Bernoulli, Euler, Genocchi, and Lucas. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Messenger of Mathe matics, vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 56-64, and No. 5, pp. 65-68; Aug. -
Germany 1919-1941 U.S
U.S. MILITARY INTELLIGENCE REPORTS : GERMANY 1919-1941 U.S. MILITARY INTELLIGENCE REPORTS: GERMANY, 1919-1941 Edited by Dale Reynolds Guide Compiled by Robert Lester A Microfilm Project of UNIVERSITY PUBLICATIONS OF AMERICA, INC. 44 North Market Street • Frederick, MD 21701 Copyright© 1983 by University Publications of America, Inc. All rights reserved. ISBN 0-89093^26-6. Note on Sources The Documents in this Collection are from the National Archives and Record Service, Washington, D.C., Record Group #165. Mil- itary Intelligence Division Files: Germany. TABLE OF CONTENTS Red Index 1 Reel I 1 Reel II 6 Reel III 10 Reel IV 15 Reel V 18 Reel VI 22 Reel VII 25 Reel VIII 29 Reel IX 31 Reel X 33 Reel XI 33 Reel XII 34 Reel XIII 35 Reel XIV 38 Reel XV 39 Reel XVI 41 Reel XVII 43 Reel XVIII 45 Reel XIX 47 Reel XX 49 Reel XXI 52 Reel XXII 54 Reel XXIII 56 Reel XXIV 58 Reel XXV 61 Reel XXVI 63 Reel XXVII 65 Reel XXVIII 68 Subject Index 71 Dates to Remember February 3,1917 Severance of U.S. Diplomatic Relations with Germany; Declara- tion of War November 11,1918 Armistice December 1, 1918 U.S. Troops of the 3rd Army cross the Rhine and Occupy the Rhine Province July 2,1919 Departure of the U.S. 3rd Army; the U.S. Army of the Rhine Occupies Coblenz in the Rhine Province December 10, 1921 Presentation of Credentials of the U.S. Charge d'Affaires in Berlin April 22, 1922 Withdrawal of U.S. -
The Ends of Four Big Inflations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Inflation: Causes and Effects Volume Author/Editor: Robert E. Hall Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-31323-9 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/hall82-1 Publication Date: 1982 Chapter Title: The Ends of Four Big Inflations Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11452 Chapter pages in book: (p. 41 - 98) The Ends of Four Big Inflations Thomas J. Sargent 2.1 Introduction Since the middle 1960s, many Western economies have experienced persistent and growing rates of inflation. Some prominent economists and statesmen have become convinced that this inflation has a stubborn, self-sustaining momentum and that either it simply is not susceptible to cure by conventional measures of monetary and fiscal restraint or, in terms of the consequent widespread and sustained unemployment, the cost of eradicating inflation by monetary and fiscal measures would be prohibitively high. It is often claimed that there is an underlying rate of inflation which responds slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal measures.1 Evidently, this underlying rate of inflation is the rate of inflation that firms and workers have come to expect will prevail in the future. There is momentum in this process because firms and workers supposedly form their expectations by extrapolating past rates of inflation into the future. If this is true, the years from the middle 1960s to the early 1980s have left firms and workers with a legacy of high expected rates of inflation which promise to respond only slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal policy actions. -
Month Calendar 1923 & Holidays 1923
January 1923 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 New Year's Day 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 2 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 3 Martin Luther King Day 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 4 28 29 30 31 5 January 1923 Calendar February 1923 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 1 2 3 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 6 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 7 Lincoln's Birthday Mardi Gras Carnival Valentine's Day 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 8 Presidents Day and Washington's Birthday 25 26 27 28 9 February 1923 Calendar March 1923 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 1 2 3 9 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 Daylight Saving St. Patrick's Day 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 12 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 13 Good Friday March 1923 Calendar April 1923 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 14 Easter April Fool's Day Easter Monday 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 16 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 17 29 30 18 April 1923 Calendar May 1923 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 1 2 3 4 5 18 Cinco de Mayo 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 19 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Mother's Day Armed Forces Day 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 21 Pentecost Pentecost Monday 27 28 29 30 31 22 Memorial Day May 1923 Calendar June 1923 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 1 2 22 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 23 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 24 Flag Day 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 Father's Day 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 26 June 1923 Calendar July 1923 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 27 Independence Day 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 28 15 16 17 18 19 -
American Opinion of the Soviet/Vatican Struggle 1917-1933
University of Central Florida STARS Retrospective Theses and Dissertations 1988 American opinion of the soviet/vatican struggle 1917-1933 Jeffrey P. Begeal University of Central Florida Part of the History Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/rtd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Masters Thesis (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Retrospective Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Begeal, Jeffrey P., "American opinion of the soviet/vatican struggle 1917-1933" (1988). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 4260. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/rtd/4260 AMERICA N CPJ}:-TON· Of· THE SOVIET/VATI CAN STRUGGLE 1917-1933 BY JEFFREY PAUL BEGEAL B.A., Mercer University, 1982 THESIS .Submi.·ct~!d. in partial fulfillment of the requirements f o r the Master of Arts dEgree in History in the Graduate Studies Program of the College of Arts and Sciences University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Fall Term 1988 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface -·················· .,.,. • 1o1 ••··· .. ··•• »••···.,······ iii Chapter I. THE REVOLUTION OF MARCH 1917 ................ 1 II. THE REVOLUTION OF NOVEMBER 1917 .............. 12 III. THE GENOA CONFERENCE, 1922 .................. 26 IV. THE CATHOLIC CLERGY TRIAL, 1923 .. .......... 41 v. THE FAMINE RELIEF MISSION OF 1921-1924 ...... 56 VI. THE PRAYER CRUSADE OF 1930 .................. 65 VII. THE RECOGNITION DEBATE, 1933 ................ 78 Conclusion . 91 NOTES . 96 APPENDIX I WALSH TO CREEDEN, 27 SEPTEMBER 1923 . ..... 105 APPENDIX II WORKS CONSULTED .......................... 108 WORKS CITED 114 PREFACE The first sixteen years of the history of Soviet/ Vatican relaticns represented one of the most profound ideological and political struggles of the twentieth century. -
Annual Report of the Colonies, Gold Coast, 1923-24
COLONIAL REPORTS—ANNUAL. No. 1255. GOLD COAST. REPORT FOR 1923-24. (For Report for 1922^-1923 see No. 1207.) Printed in the Gold Coast Colony. LONDON: PUBLISHED BY HIS MAJKSTY'8 STATIONERY OFFICE. be purchased directly from H.M. STATIONERY OFFICE at the following addresses: Adastral House, Kingsway, London, W.C.2; 28, Abingdon Stroet, London, S.W.1; York Street, Manchester; 1, St. Andrew's Crescent, Cardiff; or 120, George Street, Edinburgh; or through any Bookseller. 1925.' prjcp'2s; 3d.*net;,, » 4 « • * » » # CONTENTS. CHAPTER. I.— GENERAL • • • • II.—FINANCIAL • • • • III.—TRADE • • • • IV.—LEGISLATION • * • * V.—AGRICULTURE • • 4 • • • • • VI.—VETERINARY • • • • • • VII.—EDUCATION .. • • • • • • • • VIII.—GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS • • • • IX.—VITAL STATISTICS .. • • • • X.—POLICE «• • i • • ••• XL—PRISONS • • • • XIL— POSTAL TELEGRAPH AND TELEPHONE SERVICE XIIL—RAILWAYS .. • • • • XIV.—HARBOUR WORKS .. • • • • XV.—PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT XVL—TRANSPORT «• • • XVIL—GEOLOGICAL SURVEY • * * • XVIII.—MINES • • •• »• XIX.—SURVEY XX.—IMPERIAL INSTITUTE • » • » I • —"GENERAL* Administration. The Government of the Colony was administered during the Financial Year by Dr. J. C. Maxwell, C.M.G., Colonial Secretary, from 2nd April, 1923, to 17th August, 1923 ; and by Mr. A. J. Philbrick, C.B.E., Chief Commissioner of the Northern Territories from the 18th August, 1923, to 1st October, 1923 ; The Governor and Commander in Chief, Brigadier General Sir F. Gordon Guggisberg, K.CM.G,, D.S.O., returned from leave on the 2nd October, 1923, and resumed the administration of the Government until the 30th March, 1924. Honours. Companionship of the Most Distinguished Order of Saint Michael and Saint George was conferred by His Majesty the King upon Dr. David Alexander, Director of Medical and Sanitary Services. -
Mikhail Nikolaevich Girs Papers
http://oac.cdlib.org/findaid/ark:/13030/tf8t1nb320 No online items Register of the Mikhail Nikolaevich Girs papers Finding aid prepared by Ronald Bulatoff Hoover Institution Library and Archives © 1998 434 Galvez Mall Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-6003 [email protected] URL: http://www.hoover.org/library-and-archives Register of the Mikhail 28015 1 Nikolaevich Girs papers Title: Mikhail Nikolaevich Girs papers Date (inclusive): 1917-1926 Collection Number: 28015 Contributing Institution: Hoover Institution Library and Archives Language of Material: Russian Physical Description: 53 manuscript boxes(22.1 Linear Feet) Abstract: Correspondence, studies, reports, telegrams, memoranda, statistics, charts, clippings, and other printed matter, relating to White Russian diplomatic, political, and military activities during the Russian Revolution, Russian émigré activities, and conditions in Russia during and after the Revolution. Access The collection is open for research; materials must be requested at least two business days in advance of intended use. Publication Rights For copyright status, please contact the Hoover Institution Library & Archives Acquisition Information Acquired by the Hoover Institution Library & Archives in 1928. Preferred Citation [Identification of item], Mikhail Nikolaevich Girs papers, [Box no., Folder no. or title], Hoover Institution Library & Archives. Alternative Form Available Also available on microfilm (75 reels). 1856 Born, Russia 1894 Russian Minister to Brazil 1898 Russian Minister -
March 1923) James Francis Cooke
Gardner-Webb University Digital Commons @ Gardner-Webb University The tudeE Magazine: 1883-1957 John R. Dover Memorial Library 3-1-1923 Volume 41, Number 03 (March 1923) James Francis Cooke Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.gardner-webb.edu/etude Part of the Composition Commons, Ethnomusicology Commons, Fine Arts Commons, History Commons, Liturgy and Worship Commons, Music Education Commons, Musicology Commons, Music Pedagogy Commons, Music Performance Commons, Music Practice Commons, and the Music Theory Commons Recommended Citation Cooke, James Francis. "Volume 41, Number 03 (March 1923)." , (1923). https://digitalcommons.gardner-webb.edu/etude/699 This Book is brought to you for free and open access by the John R. Dover Memorial Library at Digital Commons @ Gardner-Webb University. It has been accepted for inclusion in The tudeE Magazine: 1883-1957 by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ Gardner-Webb University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ETU D E ,MUS I C MAGAZINE ! MARCH 19 23 25 cents a Copy Theodore Presser Co. $2.00 a Year Philadelphia, Pa. PRESSER’S MUSICAL MAGAZINE New Music Book Publications Presenting Exceptional New Material For l MONTHLY JOURNAL FOR THE MUSICIAN, THE MUSIC STUDENT,^ AND ALL MUSIC LOVERS. Teachers, Students, Performers and Music Lovers 2gS3H&'S£SKt EntCrephUadc,Cp°hnia/P:.S, “ieA«6if &3. UtC' °’ * Copyright, 1922, by Theodore Presser Co., for U. S. A. and Great Britain 1712 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, Pa. Printed in the United States of America FROM THE FAR EAST PLAYER’S BOOK EIGHT SONGS FROM GREEN TIMBER Lyrics by Charles O. Roos The World of Music U\tr& iHflWwt WOODSY CORNER TALES AND TUNES sssssm £L For Little Piano Players ISSEIS mmst mmm ALBUM OF TRANSCRIPTIONS BILBRO’S KINDERGARTEN JUNIOR COLLECTION of ANTHEMS BOOK By H. -
Diagnosing Nazism: US Perceptions of National Socialism, 1920-1933
DIAGNOSING NAZISM: U.S. PERCEPTIONS OF NATIONAL SOCIALISM, 1920-1933 A dissertation submitted to Kent State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Robin L. Bowden August 2009 Dissertation written by Robin L. Bowden B.A., Kent State University, 1996 M.A., Kent State University, 1998 Ph.D., Kent State University, 2009 Approved by Mary Ann Heiss , Chair, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Clarence E. Wunderlin, Jr. , Members, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Kenneth R. Calkins , Steven W. Hook , James A. Tyner , Accepted by Kenneth J. Bindas , Chair, Department of History John R. D. Stalvey , Dean, College of Arts and Sciences ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS………..………………………………………………iv Chapter 1. Introduction: U.S. Officials Underestimate Hitler and the Nazis……..1 2. Routine Monitoring: U.S. Officials Discover the Nazis…………......10 3. Early Dismissal: U.S. Officials Reject the Possibility of a Recovery for the Nazis…………………………………………….....57 4. Diluted Coverage: U.S. Officials Neglect the Nazis………………..106 5. Lingering Confusion: U.S. Officials Struggle to Reassess the Nazis…………………………………………………………….151 6. Forced Reevaluation: Nazi Success Leads U.S. Officials to Reconsider the Party……………………………………………......198 7. Taken by Surprise: U.S. Officials Unprepared for the Success of the Nazis……………………...……………………………….…256 8. Conclusion: Evaluating U.S. Reporting on the Nazis…………..…..309 BIBLIOGRAPHY………………………………………………………………318 iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation represents the culmination of years of work, during which the support of many has been necessary. In particular, I would like to thank two graduate school friends who stood with me every step of the way even as they finished and moved on to academic positions. -
Consistency of Two Major Data Sources for Exchange Rates in the Interwar
Consistency of Two Major Data Sources for Exchange Rates in the Interwar Period and Evidence on the Behaviour of Exchange Rates during Hyperinflations: The Case of Germany David A. Peel and Alina M. Spiru Lancaster University Management School Abstract We exploit a rather neglected source of data, The Commercial and Financial Chronicle to shed light on the behaviour of daily and weekly exchange rates throughout several interwar hyperinflation episodes, in particular the German hyperinflation. The purpose of our analysis is three-fold: firstly, we investigate the consistency of exchange rate data by comparing the rates available from this source to those provided by a widely used source, Einzig (1937). Secondly, we scrutinize the commentaries offered by The Chronicle to shed light on the impact of news on the behaviour of the US dollar/German reichsmark exchange rate over the interwar German hyperinflation, and to check whether the narrative analysis provided therein is consistent with formal econometric analyses in dating when the probability of monetary reform became significantly different from zero. Thirdly, we examine the relationship between the US dollar/German reichsmark spot rate and German wholesale prices during the high inflation period of 1923 using data at (nearly) weekly frequency. We find evidence of long- run purchasing power parity, consistent with the findings of several extant studies that employ monthly data. However, we also show that complete adjustment to purchasing power parity did not appear to occur with the nearly weekly sampled data. I. Introduction The properties of economic relationships during the German hyperinflation of the interwar period have been the focus of numerous empirical studies which employ exchange rate data.