Mikhail Nikolaevich Girs Papers
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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
Gandhi As Mahatma: Gorakhpur District, Eastern UP, 1921-2'
Gandhi as Mahatma 289 of time to lead or influence a political movement of the peasantry. Gandhi, the person, was in this particular locality for less than a day, but the 'Mahatma' as an 'idea' was thought out and reworked in Gandhi as Mahatma: popular imagination in subsequent months. Even in the eyes of some local Congressmen this 'deification'—'unofficial canonization' as the Gorakhpur District, Eastern UP, Pioneer put it—assumed dangerously distended proportions by April-May 1921. 1921-2' In following the career of the Mahatma in one limited area Over a short period, this essay seeks to place the relationship between Gandhi and the peasants in a perspective somewhat different from SHAHID AMIN the view usually taken of this grand subject. We are not concerned with analysing the attributes of his charisma but with how this 'Many miracles, were previous to this affair [the riot at Chauri registered in peasant consciousness. We are also constrained by our Chaura], sedulously circulated by the designing crowd, and firmly believed by the ignorant crowd, of the Non-co-operation world of primary documentation from looking at the image of Gandhi in this district'. Gorakhpur historically—at the ideas and beliefs about the Mahatma —M. B. Dixit, Committing Magistrate, that percolated into the region before his visit and the transformations, Chauri Chaura Trials. if any, that image underwent as a result of his visit. Most of the rumours about the Mahatma.'spratap (power/glory) were reported in the local press between February and May 1921. And as our sample I of fifty fairly elaborate 'stories' spans this rather brief period, we cannot fully indicate what happens to the 'deified' image after the Gandhi visited the district of Gorakhpur in eastern UP on 8 February rioting at Chauri Chaura in early 1922 and the subsequent withdrawal 1921, addressed a monster meeting variously estimated at between 1 of the Non-Co-operation movement. -
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945. T939. 311 rolls. (~A complete list of rolls has been added.) Roll Volumes Dates 1 1-3 January-June, 1910 2 4-5 July-October, 1910 3 6-7 November, 1910-February, 1911 4 8-9 March-June, 1911 5 10-11 July-October, 1911 6 12-13 November, 1911-February, 1912 7 14-15 March-June, 1912 8 16-17 July-October, 1912 9 18-19 November, 1912-February, 1913 10 20-21 March-June, 1913 11 22-23 July-October, 1913 12 24-25 November, 1913-February, 1914 13 26 March-April, 1914 14 27 May-June, 1914 15 28-29 July-October, 1914 16 30-31 November, 1914-February, 1915 17 32 March-April, 1915 18 33 May-June, 1915 19 34-35 July-October, 1915 20 36-37 November, 1915-February, 1916 21 38-39 March-June, 1916 22 40-41 July-October, 1916 23 42-43 November, 1916-February, 1917 24 44 March-April, 1917 25 45 May-June, 1917 26 46 July-August, 1917 27 47 September-October, 1917 28 48 November-December, 1917 29 49-50 Jan. 1-Mar. 15, 1918 30 51-53 Mar. 16-Apr. 30, 1918 31 56-59 June 1-Aug. 15, 1918 32 60-64 Aug. 16-0ct. 31, 1918 33 65-69 Nov. 1', 1918-Jan. 15, 1919 34 70-73 Jan. 16-Mar. 31, 1919 35 74-77 April-May, 1919 36 78-79 June-July, 1919 37 80-81 August-September, 1919 38 82-83 October-November, 1919 39 84-85 December, 1919-January, 1920 40 86-87 February-March, 1920 41 88-89 April-May, 1920 42 90 June, 1920 43 91 July, 1920 44 92 August, 1920 45 93 September, 1920 46 94 October, 1920 47 95-96 November, 1920 48 97-98 December, 1920 49 99-100 Jan. -
Prohibition, American Cultural Expansion, and the New Hegemony in the 1920S: an Interpretation
Prohibition, American Cultural Expansion, and the New Hegemony in the 1920s: An Interpretation IAN TYRRELL* In the [920s American prohibitionists, through the World League against Alcohol ism, sought to extend their war on liquor beyond the boundaries of the United States. Prohibitionistsfailed in their efforts due to anti-American sentiment, complex class and cultural opposition to prohibition, and negative reporting of the experi ment with prohibition in the U.S. Nevertheless, restrictive anti-alcohol laws were introduced in a number ofcountries. Moreover, the efforts ofAmerican prohibition ists furthered the larger process of American cultural expansion by emphasizing achievements of the U.S. in economic modernization and technical advancement. This episode in American cultural expansion occurred with the support of anti alcohol groups in foreign countries that embraced the message equating American reform with modernity. Prohibitionists abroad colluded in the process, thereby accepting a form ofAmerican cultural hegemony. En 1920, par l'intermédiaire de la World League against Alcoholism, les prohibi tionnistes américains se sont efforcés de pousser leur lutte contre l'alcool au-delà des frontières des États-Unis. Cependant, le sentiment anti-américain, l'opposition complexe des classes et de la culture à l'endroit de la prohibition ainsi que la mauvaise presse dont l'expérience américaine a fait l'objet ont fait échouer leurs efforts. Néanmoins, plusieurs pays ont adopté des lois restrictives contre l'alcool. Qui plus est, les efforts des prohibitionnistes américains ont favorisé l'expansion de la culture américaine en mettant en valeur les réussites des É.-u. au chapitre de la modernisation économique et de l'avancement de la technologie. -
Economic Review
The Monthly B usiness R eview Covering Business and Agricultural Conditions in the Sixth Federal Reserve District FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA JOS. A. McCORD, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent WARD ALBERTSON, Assistant Federal Reserve Agent VOL. 6 ATLANTA, GEORGIA, SEPTEMBER 28, 1921 No. 9 The outstanding feature of the business situation since the last issue According to the Bureau of the Census of the Department of Commerce, of the Monthly Business Review is the improvement in the South’s econo the amount of cotton on hand in public storage and at compresses at the mic position resulting for the most part from the advance of approxi close of February, 1920, was 3,530,654 bales, as against 5,497,019 bales mately forty dollars a bale, from $60 to $100, in the price of cotton, a year later. The total crop yield of 1920, 12,987,000 bales, added to the the principal agricultural product of the District. total estimated for this year, 7,037,000 bales, gives a gross production for the two years of 20,024,000 bales, or an average of 10,012,000 bales, as against a five-year average for 1915-1919 of 11,481,000 bales. On August 15th cotton was around 12 cents per pound, and one month later, or about the middle of September the price had advanced to ap proximately 20 cents per pound. This advance in the price of the leading The exports for the two years from July 1, 1919 to July 1, 1921 amount commodity of the Sixth Federal Reserve District has had a stimulating ed to 12,324,510 bales, an average of 6,162,255 bales, as compared with a effect on business, as well as having a good psychological effect. -
Federal Reserve Bulletin October 1922
FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (FINAL EDITION) ISSUED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD AT WASHINGTON OCTOBER, 1922 WASHINGTON GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1922 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD. Ex officio members: -, Governor. A. W. MELLON, EDMUND PLATT, Vice Governor. Secretary of the Treasury, Chairman. ADOLPH C. MILLER. D. R. CRISSINGER, CHARLES S. HAMLIN. Comptroller of the Currency. I JOHN R. MITCHELL. W. W. HOXTON, Secretary. j WALTER WYATT, General Counsel. W. L. EDDY, Assistant Secretary. j WALTER W. STEWART, I Director, Division of Analysis and Research. W. M. IMLAY, Fiscal Agent. M. JACOBSON, Statistician. J. F. HERSON, E. A. GOLDENWEISER, Associate Statistician. Chief, Division of Examination and Chief Federal E. L. SMEAD, Reserve Examiner. Chief, Division cf Bank Operations. FEDERAL ADVISORY COUNCIL. (For the year 1922.) DISTRICT NO. 1 (BOSTON) PHILIP STOCKTON. DISTRICT NO. 2 (NEW YORK) PAUL M. WARBURG, Vice President. DISTRICT NO. 3 (PHILADELPHIA) L. L. RUE, President. DISTRICT NO. 4 (CLEVELAND) CORLISS E. SULLIVAN. DISTRICT NO. 5 (RICHMOND) J. G. BROWN. DISTRICT NO. 6 (ATLANTA) EDWARD W. LANE. DISTRICT NO. 7 (CHICAGO) „ JOHN J. MITCHELL. DISTRICT NO. 8 (ST. LOUIS) FESTUS J. WADE. DISTRICT NO. 9 (MINNEAPOLIS) G. II. PRINCE. DISTRICT NO. 10 (KANSAS CITY) E. F. SWINNEY. DISTRICT NO. 11 (DALLAS) R. L. BALL. DISTRICT NO. 12 (SAN FRANCISCO) D. W. TWOHY. II Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis OFFICERS OF FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. Federal Reserve Bank of— | Chairman. Governor. Deputy governor. Cashier. Boston Frederic H. Curtiss.. Chas. A. Mores C. -
Thirty-Second Annual List of Papers
1923.] LIST OF PUBLISHED PAPERS 485 THIRTY-SECOND ANNUAL LIST OF PAPERS READ BEFORE THE AMERICAN MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY AND SUBSEQUENTLY PUBLISHED, INCLUDING REFERENCES TO THE PLACES OF PUBLICATION ALEXANDER, J. W. A proof and extension of the Jordan-Brouwer separa tion theorem. Read April 29, 1916. Transactions of this Society, vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 333-349; June, 1922. Invariant points of a surface transformation of given class. Read Dec. 28, 1922. Transactions of this Society, vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 173- 184; April, 1923. BARNETT, I. A. Differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 172-190; July, 1922. Linear partial differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918, and April 24, 1920. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 42-53; Jan., 1923. BELL, E. T. On restricted systems of higher indeterminate equations. Read (San Francisco) June 18, 1920. Transactions of this Society, vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 483-488; Oct., 1921. Anharmonic polynomial generalizations of the numbers of Bernoulli and Euler. Read (San Francisco) April 9, 1921. Transactions of this Society, vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 89-112; Sept., 1922. Periodicities in the theory of partitions. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Annals of Mathematics, (2), vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 1-22; Sept., 1922. Relations between the numbers of Bernoulli, Euler, Genocchi, and Lucas. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Messenger of Mathe matics, vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 56-64, and No. 5, pp. 65-68; Aug. -
How Do You Address the Economic Damage from a Pandemic?
HOW DO YOU ADDRESS THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE FROM A PANDEMIC? We cannot be sure that we will ever fully eradicate COVID-19 from our lives but it is becoming clearer that masks, social distancing and now even more importantly, vaccines are reducing the risks of the virus. What are the implications for the economy and your investments? We researched the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic to learn how the recovery played out then. World War I was being waged when the pandemic began. An estimated 500 million people in the world were infected. It killed 50 million people including 675,000 Americans (about 0.67% of the population; at 550,000 COVID- related deaths as of this writing that equates to about 0.16% of the U.S. population today). While COVID-19 mostly impacts the elderly, the 1918 Flu took the biggest toll on younger people who comprised the bulk of the physical labor force at the time. How did the markets perform during the Flu years? Interestingly, in 1917 the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 21.7%. The following two years while the pandemic raged, the market increased 10.5% in 1918 and another 30.5% in 1919. Similar to today the stock markets performed well despite restrictions on public gatherings. In 1918 the Commercial and Financial Chronicle, a leading business news outlet at that time, reported: “In Boston the question of closing the churches is being discussed as a mean of checking the epidemic. In Pennsylvania all places of public amusement, schools, churches and all saloons have been ordered closed until further notice.” The Surgeon General of the US at the time said that these closings are: “the only way to stop the spread of the virus”. -
Strafford, Missouri Bank Books (C0056A)
Strafford, Missouri Bank Books (C0056A) Collection Number: C0056A Collection Title: Strafford, Missouri Bank Books Dates: 1910-1938 Creator: Strafford, Missouri Bank Abstract: Records of the bank include balance books, collection register, daily statement registers, day books, deposit certificate register, discount registers, distribution of expense accounts register, draft registers, inventory book, ledgers, notes due books, record book containing minutes of the stockholders meetings, statement books, and stock certificate register. Collection Size: 26 rolls of microfilm (114 volumes only on microfilm) Language: Collection materials are in English. Repository: The State Historical Society of Missouri Restrictions on Access: Collection is open for research. This collection is available at The State Historical Society of Missouri Research Center-Columbia. you would like more information, please contact us at [email protected]. Collections may be viewed at any research center. Restrictions on Use: The donor has given and assigned to the University all rights of copyright, which the donor has in the Materials and in such of the Donor’s works as may be found among any collections of Materials received by the University from others. Preferred Citation: [Specific item; box number; folder number] Strafford, Missouri Bank Books (C0056A); The State Historical Society of Missouri Research Center-Columbia [after first mention may be abbreviated to SHSMO-Columbia]. Donor Information: The records were donated to the University of Missouri by Charles E. Ginn in May 1944 (Accession No. CA0129). Processed by: Processed by The State Historical Society of Missouri-Columbia staff, date unknown. Finding aid revised by John C. Konzal, April 22, 2020. (C0056A) Strafford, Missouri Bank Books Page 2 Historical Note: The southern Missouri bank was established in 1910 and closed in 1938. -
Official Gazette Colony and Protectorate of Kenya
THE OFFICIAL GAZETTE OF THE COLONY AND PROTECTORATE OF KENYA. Published under the Authority of His Excellency the Governor of the Colony and Protectorate of Kenya. [Vol. XXVL—No. 922] NATROBI, January 2, 1924. [Prices 50 Cenrs] Registered as a Newspaper ai the G. P. 0. Published every Wednesday. TABLE OF CONTENTS. PAGE Govt. Notice No, 1—Appointments ves vee ves .. wes vee 2 » 0 ’ 2—A. Bill intituled an Ordinance to Amend the Legislative Conncil Ordinance, 1919 ce Le . Lee . BA4 ” ” ” 3—A Bill intituled an Ordinance to Amend the Native Liquor Ordinance, 1921 wee vee a Lee vee 4 Proclamation No, 1—The Kenya and Uganda (Currency) Order, 1921... vee bee 4 Proclamation No. : 2—The Diseases of Animals Ordinance, 1906 . 5 Govt. Notice No. 4——-Public Health Ordinance, 1921—Notiee ... a vee wes 5 »»» 5-6—The Native Authority Ordinance, 1912—Appointments of Oficial Headmen bee Lee Le ves vee vee 3 Gen. Notices Nos. 1-11—Miscellaneeus Notices ... ve Lee i _ we 5H 2 THE OFFICIAL GAZETTE January 2, 1924. Government Notice No. 1. APPOINTMENTS. W. McHarpy, 0.B.E., M.A., to be Superintendent (Admin- 5. 18816 /930. istrative), Uganda Railway, with effect from Ist January, Guorce Eenest Scarrercoop, to be Accountant, Medical 1924. Department, with effect from the 24th July, 1923. _ A. G. Hicerns, to be Secretary to the Railway Council and CG. M. Bunsury, to be Senior District Engineer, Uganda Private Secretary to the General Manager, Uganda Rail- Railway, with effect from Ist January, 1924. way, with effect from Ist January, 1924. -
Tuesday, 5 December 1922 Various Resolutions; Election of ECCI; Close of Congress
Session 32 – Tuesday, 5 December 1922 Various Resolutions; Election of ECCI; Close of Congress The Norwegian question. Resolution on the terror in Ire- land. Question of the Versailles Peace Treaty. Tactics of the Communist International. The Eastern question. Edu- cational work. France. Resolution on the Russian Revolu- tion. Election of the Executive Committee. Closing speech by Zinoviev. Speakers: Haakon Meyer, Connolly, Hoernle, Bor- diga, Clara Zetkin, Kolarov, Billings, Grün, Torp, Kolarov, Zinoviev Convened: 6:50 p.m. Chairperson: Neurath Haakon Meyer (Norway): The majority of the Nor- wegian delegation states that it is not happy with the proposed resolution. A number of its points do not reflect our views. In some cases, we believe that the Commission has handled specific matters in too abstract and schematic a fashion. This applies, for example, to the cases of Halvard Olsen and Karl Johanssen. As for the latter point, a proposal had been made by the entire delegation to formulate this differ- ently, but it was rejected by the Commission. In other cases, we believe that the resolution is insufficiently objective. That applies to the point concerning Mot Dag, which, in our opinion, is not a closed group, and also for Point 4 [of the resolution], which deserves criticism. 1094 • Session 32 – 5 December 1922 However, after thorough discussion of all the disputed questions in the Commission, we will not initiate further debate in the plenary, but, rather, state that the majority of the delegation will vote for the resolution. Chair: We will now take the vote on the resolution proposed by the Norwegian Commission. -
The Submarine and the Washington Conference Of
477 THE SUBMARINE AND THE WASHINGTON CONFERENCE OF 1921 Lawrence H. Douglas Following the First World War, the tation of this group, simply stated, was tide of public opinion was overwhelm that second best in naval strength meant ingly against the submarine as a weapon last. A policy of naval superiority was of war. The excesses of the German necessary, they felt, for "history consis U-boat had stunned the sensibilities of tently shows that war between no two the world but had, nonetheless, pre peoples or nations can be unthink sented new ideas and possibilities of this able.,,1 A second group, the Naval weapon to the various naval powers of Advisory Committee (Admirals Pratt the time. The momentum of these new and Coontz and Assistant Secretary of ideas proved so strong that by the the Navy Theodore Roosevelt, Jr.) also opening of the first major international submitted recommendations concerning disarmament conference of the 20th the limitation of naval armaments. century, practical uses of the submarine From the outset their deliberations were had all but smothered the moral indig guided by a concern that had become nation of 1918. more and more apparent-the threat Several months prior to the opening posed to the security and interests of of the conference, the General Board of this country by Japan. This concern was the American Navy was given the task evidenced in an attempt to gain basic of developing guidelines and recommen understandings with Britain. dations to be used by the State Depart The submarine received its share of ment in determining the American attention in the deliberations of these proposals to be presented.