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Housing Element

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Housing Element HOUSING ELEMENT PART I: DATA AND NEEDS ANALYSIS MARCH 2011 | ADOPTED BY PLANNING COMMISSION Cover photo courtesy of Flickr http://www.flickr.com/photos/bookrep/2776433902 Contents Introduction: Data and Needs Analysis 01 I. Population, Employment and Income Trends 03 A. Population and Demographics 04 B. Employment 12 C. Income 15 II. Housing Characteristics 21 A. Existing Housing Stock 22 B. Housing Tenure and Affordability 34 C. Vacancy 37 D. Coastal Zone Housing 39 III. Housing Needs 41 A. Regional Housing Needs Assessment 41 B. Housing Affordability Needs 44 C. Housing Needs of Special Population Groups 48 D. Housing Preservation Needs 57 E. Replacement of Lost Units 58 IV. Meeting Housing Needs 61 A. New Housing Development Potential Under Existing Zoning 62 B. Constraints to Housing Access, Production and Conservation 73 1. Equal Housing Opportunity 73 2. Non-Governmental Constraints 74 3. Governmental Constraints 81 4. Financing 91 C. Quantified Housing Goals 93 D. Realization of Housing Potential 94 1. Projects in the Pipeline 94 2. Housing Potential Under New Zoning Proposals 95 3. Plans for Future Affordable Housing 95 4. Opportunity Sites on Public Lands 96 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS Tables, Figures, & Maps Table I-1 Population Trends and ABAG Projections, San Francisco, 1990–2030 4 Figure I-1 Population Trends and ABAG Projections, San Francisco, 1940–2030 4 Table I-2 Population Trends and Projections by Age Groups, San Francisco, 1990-2030 5 Figure I-2 Population Trends and Projections by Age Groups, San Francisco, 1990–2030 6 Table I-3 Population Trends by Ethnicity, San Francisco, 1980–2008 6 Figure I-3 Ethnic Composition, San Francisco, 2008 7 Table I-4 Household Growth Trends and Projections, San Francisco, 1990–2030 7 Table I-5 Family and Non-Family Households, San Francisco, 1990 and 2000 8 Table I-6 Changes in Household Size, San Francisco, 1970–2000 9 Table I-7 Household Size by Ethnicity, San Francisco, 2000 9 Map I-1 Average Household Size by Census Tract, San Francisco, 2000 10 Map I-2 Median Room Count by Census Tract, San Francisco, 2000 11 Table I-8 San Francisco Employment Trends and Projections, 1990-2030 12 Table I-9 San Francisco and Bay Area Regional Employment Projections, 1990-2030 12 Table I-10 Employment Trends and Projections by Industry, San Francisco, 2000-2030 13 Table I-11 Employed Residents Trends and Projections, San Francisco, 2000–2030 14 Table I-12 Workers per Household Trends and Projections, San Francisco and Bay Area, 2000-2030 14 Table I-13 Workers Commuting into San Francisco, 2000-2030 14 Table I-14 Household and Family Income, San Francisco, 1990-2008 15 Table I-15 Household and Family Income in Constant Dollars, San Francisco, 1990-2008 15 Table I-16 Household Income by Household Type, Tenure and Ethnicity, San Francisco, 2000 16 Table I-17 Number of Workers in Family, San Francisco, 1990-2000 16 Table I-18 Incomes by Ethnicity and Household Type, San Francisco, 2000 17 Table I-19 Average Annual Wage and Employment by Sector, San Francisco, 2006 18 Table I-20 Job Classifications with Most Job Openings, 2004-2014 and Median Hourly Wages, 2008 19 Table I-21 Housing Characteristics, San Francisco, 2000 and 2007 22 Table I-22 Housing Stock by Planning District and Structure Size, San Francisco, 2008 24 Map I-3 Housing Stock by Planning Districts, San Francisco, 2008 25 Table I-23 New Housing Construction, Demolitions and Alterations, San Francisco, 2000-2008 26 Table I-24 Comparison of Existing Stock with New Construction by Building Type, San Francisco, 1980-2008 27 Table I-25 Net Change in the Housing Stock by Planning District, 2000-2008 27 Map I-4 Net Change in the Housing Stock by Planning Districts, San Francisco, April 2000-2008 28 Table I-26 Construction of New Affordable Housing Units, San Francisco, 2000-2008 29 Table I-27 Demolitions by Structure Type, 2000-2008 30 Table I-28 Housing Units Converted to Non-Residential Use, San Francisco, 1970-2008 30 Table I-29 Legalization of Secondary Units, 2000-2008 31 Table I-30 Citywide Inventory of Public Assisted Housing, San Francisco, 2007 31 Table I-31 Residential Hotel Status, San Francisco, 1990-2007 32 Table I-32 Loss of Residential Hotel Rooms, San Francisco, 1975-2007 32 Table I-33 Live/Work Construction, 1987-2007 33 ii CPC ADOPTED HOUSING ELEMENT 2009 Table I-34 Rate of Homeownership, San Francisco, 2000 34 Table I-35 Housing Affordability of Average Single Family Homes, San Francisco, 2008 35 Figure I-4 Housing Price Trends, San Francisco, 1996-2008 35 Figure I-5 Average Monthly Rental Rates, San Francisco, 2000-2008 36 Table I-36 Rental Affordability for Lower Income Households by Planning District, San Francisco, 2008 37 Table I-37 Vacancy Rates by Vacancy Status, 1970-2008 37 Figure I-6 Rental Vacancy Rates, San Francisco, 2000-2007 38 Figure I-7 Homeowner Vacancy Rates, San Francisco, 2000-2007 38 Table I-38 New Construction, Alteration and Demolition Activity in Coastal Area, San Francisco, 2000-2008 39 Map I-5 Coastal Zone Area, San Francisco, 2008 40 Table I-39 Regional Housing Needs Assessment for San Francisco, 2007-June 2014 41 Table I-40 Household Income Standards by Household Size, 2008 42 Table I-41 Income Distribution, San Francisco, 2007 42 Table I-42 Affordable Housing Guidelines, San Francisco, 2008 43 Table I-43 Percentage of Very Low Income Households Overpaying Housing Costs, San Francisco, 2000 and 2008 44 Table I-44 Overcrowded Households by Tenure, San Francisco, 2000 45 Table I-45 Overcrowded Households by Household Ethnicity, San Francisco, 2000 45 Table I-46 Expiration and Opt-Outs of Project Based Section 8 Contracts, San Francisco, 2008 47 Table I-47 Permanent Housing Needs of Special Population Groups, San Francisco, 2008 48 Table I-48 Estimated Homeless Population, San Francisco, 2007 49 Table I-49 Elderly Households and Housing Burden, San Francisco, 2000 52 Table I-50 Household Size and Housing Unit Sizes, San Francisco, 2000 53 Table I-51 Large Households and Housing Burden, San Francisco, 2000 54 Table I-52 Characteristics of Female Headed Households, San Francisco, 2000 54 Table I-53 Estimated Replacement Housing Needs, San Francisco, 2007-June 2014 58 Table I-54 Legalization of Secondary Units, San Francisco, 2000-2008 59 Table I-55 Evictions from Ellis Act and Owner Move-Ins, San Francisco, 1997-2006 60 Table I-56 Estimated New Housing Construction Potential by Generalized Zoning Districts, San Francisco, 2008 63 Table I-57 Estimated New Housing Construction Potential by Zoning District, San Francisco, 2008 64 Map I-6 Generalized Housing Densities Allowed by Zoning District, San Francisco, 2008 66 Table I-58 Generalized Housing Densities Allowed by Zoning Districts, San Francisco, 2008 68 Table I-59 Average Price per Square Foot of Vacant Lands Sold, San Francisco, 2000-2007 75 Table I-60 Estimated Multi-Family Housing Development Costs Per Unit, San Francisco, 2007 76 Table I-61 Fees for Various Development Permits by Construction Costs, San Francisco, 2008 89 Table I-62 Federal, State and Local Funding for Housing Programs, San Francisco, 2008-2009 92 Table I-63 Annual Production Targets and Average Annual Housing Production, San Francisco, 1999-2006 93 Table I-64 Housing Production Targets and Estimated Annual Production, San Francisco, 2007–2014 93 Table I-65 New Housing Construction Pipeline, San Francisco, Q4 2008 94 Table I-66 Estimated New Housing Construction Potential with Proposed Rezoning of Select Neighborhoods, 2008 95 Table I-67 Estimated Capital Subsidies Required to Meet Production Goals, San Francisco, 2007-June 2014 96 Table I-68 Summary of Housing Potential in City-Owned Lands 98 iii Introduction: Data and Needs Analysis San Francisco remains a highly desirable place to live and its Element law. Information is presented on trends since housing market has a seemingly infinite demand. Housing the 2004 Housing Element was published and on expected costs in San Francisco, for both renters and owners, are development for the next five to 10 years, at which time second only to that of New York City. The relative stability the Housing Element will be updated again. An evaluation of local housing costs in the wake of the recent economic of the 2004 Housing Element is included in this document downturn is a testament to the robustness of the market. as an appendix. The continuing high cost of housing in San Francisco amplifies the need for providing affordable housing to all Primary data sources include the Census Bureau and State household income levels, especially low and very low in- Department of Finance for existing conditions, projections come levels. The provision of adequate affordable housing published by the Association of Bay Area Governments remains a significant challenge for San Francisco. (ABAG), and independent analysis by the Planning De- partment.1 The data used are the most reliable available This first part of theHousing Element contains a description for assessing existing conditions. These standard sources and analysis of San Francisco’s population and employment provide a basis for consistent comparison with older data trends; existing housing characteristics; overall housing and form the basis for the best possible forecasts. The data need, including special needs groups; and capacity for provide a general picture of economic trends and therefore new housing based on land supply and site opportunities do not necessarily reflect particular trends or cycles in the in compliance with Section 65583(a) of the state Housing housing market and the wider economy. 1 San Francisco relies on information provided by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG).
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