STRATEGY FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
CAMPAIGN DECISION TREE
HOLD PRESIDENTIAL HOLD PRESIDENTIAL CONDUCT COMBINED ELECTIONS BEFORE THE ELECTION AFTER PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION REFERENDUM ON THE REFERENDUM ON THE AND REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION CONSTITUTION THE NEW CONSTITUTION STRATEGY STRATEGY 1 STRATEGY 2 3 POSITIVES: POSITIVES: POSITIVES: • Sufficiently short Complete legitimacy of Minimises the expense of timeframe; authorities in the country in the constructing a Libyan political • Technologically feasible eyes of the international system NEGATIVES: community NEGATIVES: • Questions of legitimacy NEGATIVES: • No legal precedents from opponents within • Divisions on the • Divisions on the Libya, since presidential constitution;* constitution powers not approved in the • Long and unpredictable • Technically complicated Constitution timeframes; • No guarantee of a positive • Questions of legitimacy • No guarantee of a positive result from the international result due to possible community constitutional restrictions
* According to an expert survey, disputes on the issue of adopting a constitution are so so substantial that it is not possible to adopt an agreed version of the Constitution in a short timeframe 2 STARTING POSITIONS
Khalifa Belqasim Haftar controls the territory in which ⅓ of voters live. Therefore, before putting forth his candidature for the presidential election, we need to find mechanisms for controlling the electoral 1 process in other parts of Libya. That is to say: to have the capability to safely campaign for the candidate, distribute campaign materials, control vote counting (without control of voting results, the elections may be lost).
In respect of the fact that there is no understanding of exactly how to conduct an electoral campaign in uncontrolled territory, we need a series 2 of joint negotiations on the conditions and rules for holding the elections with all the interested parties (in Sochi).
3 SCENARIO № 1: Nationwide Congress
On November 8, 2018, the UN Special Representative for Libya, Ghassan Salamé, will announce a roadmap for resolving the political crisis in the country. According to this plan, provisionally in December, 2018, a Nationwide Congress will be convened, at which options for the reconciliation of parties should be developed, and a commission convened to adopt a law on the presidential election.
It is necessary to ensure the maximum representation of political forces loyal to K. Haftar at the Congress, in order to lobby there for the required political line. K. Haftar’s team should thus be able to seize the initiative at the Congress.
The commission on the development of electoral legislation must include K. Haftar’s representatives, reinforced by experienced Russian jurists.
The following stage could and should be to hold a forum in Sochi with the involvement of public opinion leaders from Libya (firstly representatives of the tribes) to develop concrete mechanisms for holding elections.
4 SCENARIO № 2: FORUM OF NATIONAL ACCORD IN SOCHI
In the event the UN roadmap is not announced, or parties to the conflict disagree with it, Russia could take the initiative and hold a
1 forum of Libyan national accord in Sochi.
All parties to the conflict should be maximally represented at this forum, as well as public opinion leaders from Libya (representatives of 2 tribes and military-political organisations).
Options for reconciling the parties should be developed at the forum, as well as an initiative for developing electoral legislation and holding 3 presidential elections.
5 FORUM OF LIBYAN NATIONAL ACCORD negotiations on reconciling sides, organising elections and discussion of the construction of the state system and new draft constitution Work site - Sochi, Russia
Talks took place in Paris (ending only in oral agreements); May, 2018
12-13 November, Conference planned to be held in Italy (Palermo) - it is 2018 unlikely the necessary agreements will be reached
We suggest holding a series of meetings on the reconciliation of parities and organisation of elections in Libya at the famous international negotiation venue in Sochi (Russian Federation). Negotiations in Sochi, by their nature, do not clash with the peace process “launched” in Palermo
6 STARTING POSITIONS
WHAT PROBLEMS DO YOU THINK ARE MOST ACUTE FOR LIBYA AND IN NEED OF AN IMMEDIATE SOLUTION?
Corruption Political instability Lack of legitimate authorities War Crime Lack of medical aid Lack of electricity ISIS, Al-Qaeda Ansar al-Sharia in Libya (ASL) Lack of food Lack of drinking water Absence of accomodation Human trafficking Lack of telephone communications and Internet Other
According to an Internet survey on October 17 7 STARTING POSITIONS
DO YOU KNOW THESE PEOPLE? WHICH OF THESE POLITICIANS DO YOU TRUST?
Mostly Difficult Name of public figure Trust Mostly trust Don’t trust Know Don’t know distrust to answer
Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj 80,6% 19,4% 5,5% 10,5% 31,6% 47,1% 5,3%
Commander-in-Chief Khalifa Haftar 83,9% 16,1% 20,2% 21,2% 18,8% 34,1% 5,7% Son of Muammar Gaddafi - Saif 89,6% 10,4% 28,6% 15,5% 20,7% 30,2% 4,9% al-Islam Gaddafi Aguila Saleh Issa 76,3% 23,7% 4,1% 8,2% 29,2% 54,2% 4,4%
Khalid Al-Mishri, head of the Libyan 55,6% 44,4% 4,1% 7,6% 29,7% 49,9% 8,7% High Council of State
Aref Ali Nayed, Libyan Islamic scholar, director of Kalam Research & Media 47,1% 52,9% 3,0% 10,3% 25,9% 50,9% 9,9% (KRM) Ahmed Maiteeq, Vice Chairman of the 64,3% 35,7% 2,5% 5,4% 29,7% 53,4% 9,0% Presidential Council Khalifa al-Ghawil 61,6% 38,4% 3,5% 7,4% 29,2% 52,0% 7,9% Abdul Hameed Dbebah 45,2% 54,8% 3,0% 4,1% 29,7% 49,1% 14,2%
According to an Internet survey on October 17 8 STARTING POSITIONS
DO YOU KNOW THESE PEOPLE? WHICH OF THESE POLITICIANS DO YOU TRUST?
Don’t Name of public figure Mostly trust Mostly distrust Difficult to answer Know know
Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj 85,5% 14,5% 31,4% 52,1% 16,5%
Commander-in-Chief Khalifa Haftar 85,5% 14,5% 38,9% 49,7% 11,3% Son of Muammar Gaddafi - Saif al-Islam 86,3% 13,7% 64,6% 27,2% 8,2% Gaddafi Aguila Saleh Issa 66,2% 33,8% 15,6% 66,2% 18,2%
Khalid Al-Mishri, head of the Libyan 52,0% 48,0% 17,2% 69,3% 13,5% High Council of State
Aref Ali Nayed, Libyan Islamic scholar, director of Kalam Research & Media 58,7% 41,3% 19,4% 61,3% 19,3% (KRM) Ahmed Maiteeq, Vice Chairman of the 57,8% 42,2% 17,1% 68,5% 14,4% Presidential Council Khalifa al-Ghawil 55,0% 45,0% 18,7% 67,8% 13,5% Abdul Hameed Dbebah 53,9% 46,1% 15,4% 65,3% 19,3% Aisha Gaddafi, daughter of Muammar 83,3% 16,7% 46,0% 36,3% 17,7% Gaddafi Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 9 STARTING POSITIONS
WHO OF THE NAMED POLITICIANS DESERVES TO BECOME PRESIDENT?
According to the October 17 survey According to the November 5 survey
None of them
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi
Khalifa Haftar
Aref Ali Nayed
Aguila Saleh Issa
Khalifa al-Ghawil
Khalid Al-Mishri
Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj
Abdul Hameed Dbebah
Ahmed Omar Maiteeq 10 STARTING POSITIONS
IF THERE WERE ONLY TWO IF THERE WERE ONLY TWO PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: KHALIFA HAFTAR AND FAYEZ KHALIFA HAFTAR AND SAIF AL-SARRAJ, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE AL-ISLAM GADDAFI, WHO WOULD FOR? YOU VOTE FOR?
PERCENT PERCENT
Khalifa Khalifa Haftar 23,3% Haftar 33,7% Fayez 21,2% Saif al-Islam al-Sarraj Gaddafi 44,1%
Difficult to 45,1% Difficult to answer answer 32,6%
Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 11 STARTING POSITIONS
CAN THE SITUATION IN LIBYA BE CALLED A CRISIS?
NO
YES
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION? IF SO, HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT IT? Response variant Percent FAMILIAR AND FULLY SUPPORT IT 25,9% FAMILIAR BUT DON’T AGREE WITH ALL ITS POINTS 24,3% FAMILIAR BUT ABSOLUTELY DISAGREE WITH IT 14,9% NO, NOT FAMILIAR WITH IT 34,8%
Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 12
STARTING POSITIONS HOW DO YOU FEEL THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST
YEAR? Response Percent
GENERALLY IMPROVED 26,6% GENERALLY WORSENED 31,9% NO CHANGES 35,9% DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 5,6% HOW MUCH BETTER HAVE THINGS BEEN IN LIBYA SINCE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UN MISSION? Response Percent BETTER, THEY ARE HELPING US BRING ABOUT 19,4% ORDER WORSE, THEY HAVE BROUGHT CHAOS AND 25,8% PROBLEMS TO THE COUNTRY NOTHING HAS CHANGED 43,3% DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 11,5% Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 13
STARTING POSITIONS
WILL YOU VOTE IN THE ELECTIONS FOR THE PRESIDENT OF LIBYA?
Yes, I will No, I won’t
Still don’t know, hard to answer
Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 14 STARTING POSITIONS
DO YOU BELIEVE SHARIA SHOULD BE FROM WHAT SOURCES DO YOU THE BASIS OF LIBYAN LAW? RECEIVE INFORMATION ON EVENTS IN LIBYA?
Social media Yes No
Television
Websites
Relatives and acquaintances
Radio
Newspapers
According to an Internet survey from October 17 15 STARTING POSITIONS
WHICH COUNTRIES ARE FRIENDS OR ENEMIES OF LIBYA?
USA
Italy
Russia
France
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
UK
China
Sudan
Generally an enemy Don’t know the country Generally a friend Hard to answer
According to an Internet survey from October 17 16 AREAS OF WORK
Develop the candidate’s pre-electoral programme - economic, social and political. Moreover, the main slogans of the programme should be
1 approved of by the international community to increase the legitimacy of the future President. Come up with electoral scenarios and the most convenient opponents at the elections. There should not be many candidates for President lest internal conflicts appear. 4-5 candidates for President of Libya at maximum.
2 Form our own mass media pool.
Create an Internet centre for working on social media. 3 Develop new socio-political institutions for work with key opinion 4 leaders and the public.
17 POTENTIAL OPPONENTS
CANDIDATE POSITION
Son of Muammar Gaddafi, head of the Libyan Saif al-Islam Gaddafi Provisional Government in exile
Chairman of the Presidential Council of Libya, Fayez al-Sarraj Prime Minister of Libya Libyan Islamic scholar, director of Kalam Aref Ali Nayed Research & Media (KRM)
Aguila Saleh Issa Chairman of the Libyan House of Representatives
Ahmed Maiteeq Vice Chairman of the Presidential Council
Khalifa al-Ghawil Former Prime Minister (2015-2017), Islamist
Head of LIDCO, the largest construction company Abdul Hameed Dbebah in Libya, major businessman from Misrata
Khalid al-Mishri Head of the Libyan High Council of State, Islamist 18 CREATING NEW PRINT MEDIA
Characteristics of the Location Print run publication Weekly newspaper in In the East 200 000 copies Arabic
Weekly newspaper in In the West Berber (language of 50 000 copies the Amazigh)
Twice a month, In Toubou territory newspaper in comic 20 000 copies strip form Twice a month, In Tuareg territory newspaper in comic 20 000 copies strip form 19 DEVELOPING NEW INSTITUTIONS
Create a Public Popular Front in support of the President.
Create an institution of plenipotentiaries to satisfy the leaders of leading influence groups in obtaining high official status.
Create a Libyan Public Chamber to accumulate all the ideas and discussions on a single platform, giving active opinion leaders the ability to speak with the hope that their voices will be heard, and to ensure wide public discussion of the new draft Constitution.
20 ACTION PLAN. STRATEGY 1 GOALS:
ELECTION OF KHALIFA HAFTAR AS LIBYAN PRESIDENT
1. Agreement and consent from international players. 2. Agreements with internal influence groups (military-political organisations, key opinion makers, tribes, religious leaders). 3. Strengthen the image of Haftar as the only figure of compromise and the most powerful leader. 4. Weaken potential competitors. 5. Prepare electoral legislation. 6. Hold a Forum of Libyan National Accord in Sochi. 7. Create a coalition with Haftar and the most popular candidates. 8. Prepare and conduct the electoral campaign 9. Defend results and legitimise the outcome of the elections.
21 PREPARATION FOR THE PLANNED ELECTIONS
1. Prepare legislation and material technical and personnel bases for holding the elections. 2. Model the list of candidates (filter by registration and a pool of technical candidates). 3. Build a system of relationships with local opinion leaders, prepare social media. 4. Create a movement or party that will provide a platform and activists for the campaign. 5. Create and promote the required image of Haftar and his circle. 6. Create our own tools for the electoral campaign (printing facilities, media, activists, elite agreements). 7. Legitimise the elections (international observers, openness and transparency of the entire preparatory stage for the elections, positive media background). 22 DEMAND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR A STRONG LEADER IN LIBYA
The international community is interested in:
✔ holding legitimate elections in Libya; ✔ a leader who can bring the flow of migrants to Europe from Libya under control; ✔ the liquidation of ISIS, Al-Qaeda and radical Islamists on Libyan territory; ✔ controlling the spread of weapons.
In the context of the military struggle with the Islamists, these tasks can only be completed by a strong military leader.
23 ONE LEADER - ONE LIBYA The main complaints against Khalifa Haftar: 1. repression of national minorities; 2. usurpation of power.
Libya needs a new, single, strong leader. Top priorities for a new leader: 1. Legitimate receipt of power as a result of elections; 2. The true support of the majority of the population; 3. Recognition as an elected leader by the international community. Developing Khalifa Haftar’s image: • a modern, civilised politician; • “Saviour of Libya,” ending the bloody chaos; • “Gatherer of the lands,” resurrecting Libyan statehood; • conqueror of ISIS, Al-Qaeda, the radical Islamists, continuing the struggle.
24 THE NEW CONSTITUTION
Stages of approving and adopting the Constitution (after the presidential elections):
1. Discredit the current draft constitution and develop our own version 2. Finalise “our own” constitution with a wide public discussion (Public Chamber, National Congress). 3. Regular consultations with the international community. 4. Powerful media campaign on the Internet and in local and international media. 5. Hold a public referendum on adopting “our” constitution. 6. Hold an official referendum on the draft of “our” Constitution.
25 ELECTIONS IN LIBYA (FOR REFERENCE)
Elections to the House of Representatives on 22 June, 2014
- 1.5 million of the 3.4 million eligible voters were registered; - 22 electoral districts, 1,600 polling stations. - only around 400 thousand people came out to vote. For elections to take place, there must be security on the voting day.
On the 2nd of March 2015, the Libyan House of Representatives appointed Khalifa Haftar Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of the country.
SERIOUS WORK ON BUILDING ELECTORAL INFRASTRUCTURE IS REQUIRED. Last time, the count took 1 month!
26 LIBYA’S POLITICAL MACHINERY (FOR REFERENCE)
Chairman Prime Minister Chairman Aguila Saleh Issa Fayez al-Sarraj Khalid al-Mishri
Presidential Council High Council of State House of Representatives* (highest executive organ of the (constitutional (highest legislative organ) government) organ) 9 members (prime minister, 5
vice-premieres, 3 ministers) 145 members 200 deputies Government of National Accord
(GNA) Tripoli Tobruk 18 members
Tripoli
The House of Representatives, Government of National Accord and the High Council of State were formed in accordance with the Libyan political agreement of 2015, with the participation of the UN Security council and are internationally recognised structures.
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