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Strategy for the Presidential Election Campaign

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Strategy for the Presidential Election Campaign STRATEGY FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN DECISION TREE HOLD PRESIDENTIAL HOLD PRESIDENTIAL CONDUCT COMBINED ELECTIONS BEFORE THE ELECTION AFTER PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION REFERENDUM ON THE REFERENDUM ON THE AND REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION CONSTITUTION THE NEW CONSTITUTION STRATEGY STRATEGY 1 STRATEGY 2 3 POSITIVES: POSITIVES: POSITIVES: • Sufficiently short Complete legitimacy of Minimises the expense of timeframe; authorities in the country in the constructing a Libyan political • Technologically feasible eyes of the international system NEGATIVES: community NEGATIVES: • Questions of legitimacy NEGATIVES: • No legal precedents from opponents within • Divisions on the • Divisions on the Libya, since presidential constitution;* constitution powers not approved in the • Long and unpredictable • Technically complicated Constitution timeframes; • No guarantee of a positive • Questions of legitimacy • No guarantee of a positive result from the international result due to possible community constitutional restrictions * According to an expert survey, disputes on the issue of adopting a constitution are so so substantial that it is not possible to adopt an agreed version of the Constitution in a short timeframe 2 STARTING POSITIONS Khalifa Belqasim Haftar controls the territory in which ⅓ of voters live. Therefore, before putting forth his candidature for the presidential election, we need to find mechanisms for controlling the electoral 1 process in other parts of Libya. That is to say: to have the capability to safely campaign for the candidate, distribute campaign materials, control vote counting (without control of voting results, the elections may be lost). In respect of the fact that there is no understanding of exactly how to conduct an electoral campaign in uncontrolled territory, we need a series 2 of joint negotiations on the conditions and rules for holding the elections with all the interested parties (in Sochi). 3 SCENARIO № 1: Nationwide Congress On November 8, 2018, the UN Special Representative for Libya, Ghassan Salamé, will announce a roadmap for resolving the political crisis in the country. According to this plan, provisionally in December, 2018, a Nationwide Congress will be convened, at which options for the reconciliation of parties should be developed, and a commission convened to adopt a law on the presidential election. It is necessary to ensure the maximum representation of political forces loyal to K. Haftar at the Congress, in order to lobby there for the required political line. K. Haftar’s team should thus be able to seize the initiative at the Congress. The commission on the development of electoral legislation must include K. Haftar’s representatives, reinforced by experienced Russian jurists. The following stage could and should be to hold a forum in Sochi with the involvement of public opinion leaders from Libya (firstly representatives of the tribes) to develop concrete mechanisms for holding elections. 4 SCENARIO № 2: FORUM OF NATIONAL ACCORD IN SOCHI In the event the UN roadmap is not announced, or parties to the conflict disagree with it, Russia could take the initiative and hold a 1 forum of Libyan national accord in Sochi. All parties to the conflict should be maximally represented at this forum, as well as public opinion leaders from Libya (representatives of 2 tribes and military-political organisations). Options for reconciling the parties should be developed at the forum, as well as an initiative for developing electoral legislation and holding 3 presidential elections. 5 FORUM OF LIBYAN NATIONAL ACCORD negotiations on reconciling sides, organising elections and discussion of the construction of the state system and new draft constitution Work site - Sochi, Russia Talks took place in Paris (ending only in oral agreements); May, 2018 12-13 November, Conference planned to be held in Italy (Palermo) - it is 2018 unlikely the necessary agreements will be reached We suggest holding a series of meetings on the reconciliation of parities and organisation of elections in Libya at the famous international negotiation venue in Sochi (Russian Federation). Negotiations in Sochi, by their nature, do not clash with the peace process “launched” in Palermo 6 STARTING POSITIONS WHAT PROBLEMS DO YOU THINK ARE MOST ACUTE FOR LIBYA AND IN NEED OF AN IMMEDIATE SOLUTION? Corruption Political instability Lack of legitimate authorities War Crime Lack of medical aid Lack of electricity ISIS, Al-Qaeda Ansar al-Sharia in Libya (ASL) Lack of food Lack of drinking water Absence of accomodation Human trafficking Lack of telephone communications and Internet Other According to an Internet survey on October 17 7 STARTING POSITIONS DO YOU KNOW THESE PEOPLE? WHICH OF THESE POLITICIANS DO YOU TRUST? Mostly Difficult Name of public figure Trust Mostly trust Don’t trust Know Don’t know distrust to answer Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj 80,6% 19,4% 5,5% 10,5% 31,6% 47,1% 5,3% Commander-in-Chief Khalifa Haftar 83,9% 16,1% 20,2% 21,2% 18,8% 34,1% 5,7% Son of Muammar Gaddafi - Saif 89,6% 10,4% 28,6% 15,5% 20,7% 30,2% 4,9% al-Islam Gaddafi Aguila Saleh Issa 76,3% 23,7% 4,1% 8,2% 29,2% 54,2% 4,4% Khalid Al-Mishri, head of the Libyan 55,6% 44,4% 4,1% 7,6% 29,7% 49,9% 8,7% High Council of State Aref Ali Nayed, Libyan Islamic scholar, director of Kalam Research & Media 47,1% 52,9% 3,0% 10,3% 25,9% 50,9% 9,9% (KRM) Ahmed Maiteeq, Vice Chairman of the 64,3% 35,7% 2,5% 5,4% 29,7% 53,4% 9,0% Presidential Council Khalifa al-Ghawil 61,6% 38,4% 3,5% 7,4% 29,2% 52,0% 7,9% Abdul Hameed Dbebah 45,2% 54,8% 3,0% 4,1% 29,7% 49,1% 14,2% According to an Internet survey on October 17 8 STARTING POSITIONS DO YOU KNOW THESE PEOPLE? WHICH OF THESE POLITICIANS DO YOU TRUST? Don’t Name of public figure Mostly trust Mostly distrust Difficult to answer Know know Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj 85,5% 14,5% 31,4% 52,1% 16,5% Commander-in-Chief Khalifa Haftar 85,5% 14,5% 38,9% 49,7% 11,3% Son of Muammar Gaddafi - Saif al-Islam 86,3% 13,7% 64,6% 27,2% 8,2% Gaddafi Aguila Saleh Issa 66,2% 33,8% 15,6% 66,2% 18,2% Khalid Al-Mishri, head of the Libyan 52,0% 48,0% 17,2% 69,3% 13,5% High Council of State Aref Ali Nayed, Libyan Islamic scholar, director of Kalam Research & Media 58,7% 41,3% 19,4% 61,3% 19,3% (KRM) Ahmed Maiteeq, Vice Chairman of the 57,8% 42,2% 17,1% 68,5% 14,4% Presidential Council Khalifa al-Ghawil 55,0% 45,0% 18,7% 67,8% 13,5% Abdul Hameed Dbebah 53,9% 46,1% 15,4% 65,3% 19,3% Aisha Gaddafi, daughter of Muammar 83,3% 16,7% 46,0% 36,3% 17,7% Gaddafi Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 9 STARTING POSITIONS WHO OF THE NAMED POLITICIANS DESERVES TO BECOME PRESIDENT? According to the October 17 survey According to the November 5 survey None of them Saif al-Islam Gaddafi Khalifa Haftar Aref Ali Nayed Aguila Saleh Issa Khalifa al-Ghawil Khalid Al-Mishri Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj Abdul Hameed Dbebah Ahmed Omar Maiteeq 10 STARTING POSITIONS IF THERE WERE ONLY TWO IF THERE WERE ONLY TWO PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: KHALIFA HAFTAR AND FAYEZ KHALIFA HAFTAR AND SAIF AL-SARRAJ, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE AL-ISLAM GADDAFI, WHO WOULD FOR? YOU VOTE FOR? PERCENT PERCENT Khalifa Khalifa Haftar 23,3% Haftar 33,7% Fayez 21,2% Saif al-Islam al-Sarraj Gaddafi 44,1% Difficult to Difficult to 45,1% answer answer 32,6% Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 11 STARTING POSITIONS CAN THE SITUATION IN LIBYA BE CALLED A CRISIS? NO YES ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION? IF SO, HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT IT? Response variant Percent FAMILIAR AND FULLY SUPPORT IT 25,9% FAMILIAR BUT DON’T AGREE WITH ALL ITS POINTS 24,3% FAMILIAR BUT ABSOLUTELY DISAGREE WITH IT 14,9% NO, NOT FAMILIAR WITH IT 34,8% Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 12 STARTING POSITIONS HOW DO YOU FEEL THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST YEAR? Response Percent GENERALLY IMPROVED 26,6% GENERALLY WORSENED 31,9% NO CHANGES 35,9% DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 5,6% HOW MUCH BETTER HAVE THINGS BEEN IN LIBYA SINCE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UN MISSION? Response Percent BETTER, THEY ARE HELPING US BRING ABOUT 19,4% ORDER WORSE, THEY HAVE BROUGHT CHAOS AND 25,8% PROBLEMS TO THE COUNTRY NOTHING HAS CHANGED 43,3% DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 11,5% Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 13 STARTING POSITIONS WILL YOU VOTE IN THE ELECTIONS FOR THE PRESIDENT OF LIBYA? Yes, I will No, I won’t Still don’t know, hard to answer Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements. 14 STARTING POSITIONS DO YOU BELIEVE SHARIA SHOULD BE FROM WHAT SOURCES DO YOU THE BASIS OF LIBYAN LAW? RECEIVE INFORMATION ON EVENTS IN LIBYA? Social media Yes No Television Websites Relatives and acquaintances Radio Newspapers According to an Internet survey from October 17 15 STARTING POSITIONS WHICH COUNTRIES ARE FRIENDS OR ENEMIES OF LIBYA? USA Italy Russia France Saudi Arabia Turkey UK China Sudan Generally an enemy Don’t know the country Generally a friend Hard to answer According to an Internet survey from October 17 16 AREAS OF WORK Develop the candidate’s pre-electoral programme - economic, social and political. Moreover, the main slogans of the programme should be 1 approved of by the international community to increase the legitimacy of the future President.
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