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MAX Security Report Intel@Max-Security.Com +44 203 540 0434 MAX Security Report [email protected] +44 203 540 0434 Politics Libya SITUATION UPDATE: LNA, GNA swap 29 prisoners under UNSMIL-led JMC on December DEC 25; notable due to rarity of such incidents 7:10 UTC Executive Summary On December 23, House of Representatives (HoR) President Aguila Saleh Issa referred 35 HoR members to prosecution for “spreading division” after they attempted to defect. This highlights the internal fissures within political bodies as individual elements attempt to pursue their independent interests amid the peace process in Libya. On December 23, locals protested against the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) in Tripoli to demand a lower official exchange rate. This is because a higher exchange rate would increase the price of imported goods and therefore increase the economic burden on the population. On December 25, the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Government of National Accord (GNA) exchanged prisoners as part of the UN-brokered negotiations. This shows the two parties’ overall interest in making the necessary concessions to facilitate the ongoing peace process. Overall, while the LNA and the GNA leadership will continue their efforts to make concessions under the UN-brokered negotiations, mistrust between the two parties will persist. This, combined with the internal fissures within political bodies, will challenge the overall political negotiations in Libya over the coming months. page 1 / 6 Current Situation Across the country, the following incidents have been reported: Fezzan Region Date District/City Brief Description December 23 Ubari According to a news agency affiliated with the eastern- based House of Representatives (HoR), the Libyan National Army (LNA) took control of several sites and roads linking the city to remote areas. Some of the sites were reportedly used by criminal groups “to kidnap citizens in exchange for ransom”. Kufra District Date District/City Brief Description page 2 / 6 December 27 Unspecified A judge was kidnapped by unidentified individuals while traveling to his workplace. Tripoli Date District/City Brief Description December 23 Tripoli Locals protested to demand accountability by the Central Bank of Libya’s (CBL) board of directors and Governor Saqid al-Kabeer as well as to denounce the alleged corruption within the Government of National Accord (GNA) leadership. They also protested to demand that the new exchange rate announced by the CBL be lower. General Developments Date Brief Description December 23 The GNA-linked Sirte-al-Jufra Operations Room released a statement indicating that it was ready to repel any anticipated movement of “militias and mercenaries” after monitoring new buildups in the region by LNA forces. December 23 35 members of the Tripoli-based HoR reportedly attempted to “defect” from the parliament and form a parallel political body. The HoR President Aguila Saleh Issa referred them to the prosecution’s office on charges of “spreading division, chaos, and strife”. December 25 The LNA’s leader, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, called on its forces to “drive out” Turkish fighters operating on behalf of the GNA. December 25 The LNA and GNA exchanged prisoners under the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL)-led 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC). December 26 The Turkish Minister of National Defense and the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) Chief of page 3 / 6 General Staff conducted an official visit to Libya. December 27 A delegation from Egypt reportedly arrived in Tripoli to meet with GNA officials. The Egyptian delegation reportedly included security and diplomatic officials headed by the deputy chief of intelligence. They met with the deputy head of the Presidential Council (PC), Ahmed Mitig, and the GNA Interior Minister, Fatih Bashaga. December 27 According to Algeria’s official news agency, its state-owned electric and gas company signed a cooperation agreement with Libya’s General Electric Company (GECOL). The latest agreement between the two companies is intended to expand cooperation in the fields of production, transportation, electricity and gas distribution, renewable energies, and training. Assessments & Forecast 1. The attempt by the 35 Tripoli-based HoR members to defect and form a parallel political body comes amid growing political fissures within various political entities over recent months, which have become more evident during the UNSMIL-brokered negotiations aimed at establishing a national unity government. In this context, on December 21-22, 127 members of the HoR chose to meet to discuss its reunification process in Ghadames, rather than under Saleh’s leadership, in Sirte or Benghazi. One of the topics of discussion constituted the re- election of the Office of the HoR Presidency, which shows an effort to restructure the HoR amid efforts to establish a national government. Hence, it is possible that Saleh’s decision to refer the aforementioned members to the prosecution is an effort to project his intolerance towards any dissent within the HoR, likely as such opposition would undermine his leadership amid the ongoing political negotiations. This is evidenced by charges brought against the HoR members. The fact that these members were based in Tripoli will, however, exacerbate the mistrust between the eastern and western political leadership of Libya, as it may be perceived by the latter as an effort to marginalize Tripoli-based officials from the country’s reunified parliament. 2. Meanwhile, those allied with Saleh may perceive the attempt by the Tripoli-based representatives as an effort to undermine the eastern tribes’ interests during the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) negotiations. FORECAST: Overall, elements of various political bodies will continue their efforts to increase their political independence and influence in order to establish a significant role within the new government. This will pose persistent challenges to the peace process in Libya over the coming year. 3. The December 23 protest in Tripoli comes amid significant, long-standing socio-economic grievances held among large segments of the population of Libya. While the momentum of anti-GNA protests has decreased over recent months, this was likely due to the UNSMIL- brokered negotiations, which resulted in agreements regarding financial and economic development in the country and may have temporarily appeased the demonstrators. The unification of the currency exchange rate between eastern and western Libya constituted one such agreement. The CBL announced that the official rate will be at 4.48 Libyan dinars (LYD) page 4 / 6 against the US dollar, which will come in effect from January 3, 2021. While the exchange rate is lower than the current black market exchange rate in Libya, which is approximately between 5.35 and 5.45 LYD against the USD, per December 15 reports, it constitutes a significant increase from the official exchange rate, at 1 USD to 1.34 LYD. The protesters therefore likely perceive that this change in exchange rate will significantly increase the costs of imported goods and therefore the economic burden on the population. Overall, the protesters likely perceive the CBL and the GNA as failing to uphold their commitments to the public to ensure development. FORECAST: While the two parties will continue to announce additional economic and financial measures, given the significantly deteriorated infrastructure in Libya, these are unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s overall development over the coming months. Therefore, additional such socioeconomic protests will be recorded in GNA-held territories. 4. Prisoner swaps are relatively rare between the LNA and the GNA, rendering the December 25 exchange under the JMC relatively notable. This shows the two parties’ overall interest in making the necessary concessions to facilitate the ongoing peace process under the UNSMIL. However, despite these developments, the mistrust between the LNA and GNA leadership will persist. This can be largely attributed to the fact that neither party has forgone their respective foreign military support, despite the fact that it was stipulated as a term under the October 23 ceasefire agreement. This is evidenced by the arrival of the Turkish Minister of Defense and the TSK Chief of General Staff in Tripoli also on December 26. This refusal to terminate international support can be attributed to the LNA and GNA’s efforts to maintain their defensive positions in their respective held-territories in the event of a potential offensive by the latter. FORECAST: Therefore, while the parties will likely continue their efforts to make concessions under the UNSMIL-brokered negotiations, Turkey’s military buildup on behalf of the GNA, as well as the LNA’s reported buildup in the Sirte and al-Jufra region, will continue to be a source of contention between two parties. This will serve to undermine the ceasefire and the political negotiations over the coming months. Recommendations 1. It is advised to defer all travel to Tripoli and Benghazi at this time due to ongoing violence, threats against foreigners, and the risk of a broad deterioration of security conditions. We advise at this time that those remaining in Tripoli and Benghazi should initiate contingency and emergency evacuation plans due to deterioration in the security situation. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans. 2. For those remaining in Tripoli, avoid nonessential travel to the outskirts of the city, particularly the al-Swani, Qasr Bin Ghashir, Wadi al-Rabea, Salah al-Din, Abu Salim, and Ain Zara neighborhoods, as well as to vicinity of the Tripoli International Airport, given that the Libyan National Army (LNA) planted landmines in these areas prior to its retreat in May. 3. Those planning to travel through the Mitiga International Airport in Tripoli as well as the Misrata International Airport in Misrata are advised to remain cognizant of the underlying risk of LNA airstrikes against these Government of National Accord (GNA)-held facilities. This threat is higher during the overnight hours and during times of increased hostilities between the sides.
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