THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: ECOSYSTEMS, PEOPLE AND SOCIETIES AT RISK

THIS REPORT IS A SUMMARY OF A COMPREHENSIVE STUDY INVOLVING OVER 20 EXPERTS AND BASED ON 300 PEER-REVIEWED SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES. THE FULL REPORT PLUS REFERENCES IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT: www.panda.org/coraltriangle The Coral Triangle is defined by marine zones containing at least 500 species of reef-building coral. The Coral Triangle supports livelihoods and provides income and food security, particularly for coastal communities. Resources from the area directly sustain more than 100 million people living there.

Authorship team: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, John E. (Charlie) Veron, Alison Green, Edgardo D. Gomez, Janice Lough, Melanie King, Ambariyanto, Lara Hansen, Josh Cinner, Geoff Dews, Garry Russ, Heidi Z. Schuttenberg, Eileen L. Peñaflor, C. Mark Eakin, Tyler R. L. Christensen, Michael Abbey, Francis Areki, Rosemary A. Kosaka, Alexander Tewfik, Jamie Oliver. The Coral Triangle

Number of Coral Species First published in May 2009 by WWF Australia © WWF Australia GPO Box 528 Sydney NSW Australia Tel: +612 9281 5515 Fax: +612 9281 1060 ISBN number 978-1-921031-35-9

WWF and The University of Queensland would like to thank the following organisations for their support of this report: Coral Reef Targeted Research Project (www.gefcoral.org) James Cook University ARC Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies Silliman University Australian Institute of Marine Sciences The Nature Conservancy EcoAdapt United States National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration Economic Strategies University of Diponegoro Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University University of Melbourne WorldFish Center University of the Philippines

THE MANUSCRIPT CONTENTS ARE SOLELY THE OPINIONS OF THE AUTHORS AND DO NOT CONSTITUTE A STATEMENT OF POLICY, DECISION, OR POSITION ON BEHALF OF THE ORGANISATIONS LISTED ABOVE. Citation of this report: Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Hoegh-Guldberg, H., Veron, J.E.N., Green, A., Gomez, E. D., Lough, J., King, M., Ambariyanto, Hansen, L., Cinner, J., Dews, G., Russ, G., Schuttenberg, H. Z., Peñaflor, E.L., Eakin, C. M., Christensen, T. R. L., Abbey, M., Areki, F., Kosaka, R. A., Tewfik, A., Oliver, J. (2009). The Coral Triangle and Climate Change: Ecosystems, People and Societies at Risk. WWF Australia, Brisbane, 276 pp. Full report is available at: www.panda.org/coraltriangle Designed by www.threeblocksleft.com.au Photography by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Queensland (except where indicated) Contents About This Report 2 Executive Summary 4 The Imperative: Which Future Will We Choose? 6 Worst case (A1B): Failure to reduce climate change amid escalating local threats 8 Best case (B1): Decisive action on climate change while building sustainable communities 10 The Global Challenge: Climate Change 14 Impacts have already begun 14 Small changes have big impacts 18 The Coral Triangle: The Earth’s Storehouse of Biological Diversity 20 Evolution’s cauldron 20 An urgent conservation priority 21 Coastal People, Communities and Economies at Risk 24 Sustaining economic growth into the future 25 The escalating environmental challenges 26 Conclusion: Urgent Action Now 30 Recommended Reading 32 Authors and Expert Reviewers 33 THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE About This Report

The Coral Triangle is the world’s centre of marine life, with more species Unfortunately, the relationship of local threats. In this world, the World leaders have a choice. living in this area than anywhere else on the planet. It sparkles as the between people and coastal biological treasures of the region They have a chance to make biological treasure chest of our planet, with many of its mysteries and ecosystems is now under extreme are destroyed by rapid increases a difference, to the future of our species yet to be discovered. threat from climate change, as well in ocean temperature, acidity planet’s biological inheritance and as escalating local and regional and sea level, while the resilience the lives of millions of vulnerable Over thousands of years, people have built communities and businesses environmental pressures. Regional of coastal ecosystems deteriorates people living within the Coral around this remarkable biological wealth. Today the region supports multi- and international action is urgently under ineffective coastal management. Triangle, or not. By making tough billion dollar tuna, fishing and tourism industries, and over 100 million people needed to avoid an ecological and Poverty increases, food security decisions today, they can take rely directly on its coastal resources for their food and livelihoods. human catastrophe. plummets, economies suffer and us towards that better world, coastal people migrate increasingly one in which the threat of climate This report sets out the full extent to urban centres. change has been reduced, and human of the threats and proposes solutions communities and coastal resources to the challenges facing the Coral In the other world, effective action can exist in harmony. Triangle and its people. Based on a is taken by world leaders to curb the thorough consideration of the climate, build up of greenhouse gases, leading Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg biology, economics and social to the stabilisation of concentrations University of Queensland

characteristics of the region, it shows of atmospheric CO2 at the lower James P. Leape why these challenges are increasing, end of IPCC projections in the latter Director General WWF International and how unchecked climate change half of this century. Climate change will ultimately undermine and destroy is challenging but manageable, and ecosystems and livelihoods in the the Coral Triangle region decisively “...it shows why Coral Triangle. reduces other environmental stresses arising from overfishing, pollution, these challenges are The report offers two possible declining coastal water quality and increasing, and how scenarios for the future. In one world, health. In this world, because the the international community continues impacts are less and growth strategies unchecked climate down a track towards catastrophic are more focused on people than change will ultimately climate change and the Coral Triangle profits, communities and economies countries do little to protect coastal continue to grow sustainably into undermine and ecosystems from the onslaught the future. destroy ecosystems and livelihoods in the Coral Triangle.”

2: THE CORAL TRIANGLE 3 THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Executive Summary

The Coral Triangle stretches across Unfortunately, the coastal ecosystems Climate change is also threatening stresses. They are based on extensive face from deteriorating water quality, six countries in Southeast Asia and of Coral Triangle are deteriorating coastal mangroves within the Coral information about how ecosystems, overexploitation of marine resources, the Pacific (Indonesia, Philippines, rapidly and 40% of coral reefs and Triangle, which are highly sensitive to people and economies within this destructive fishing, pollution and Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, mangroves have already been lost rising sea levels. A multitude of other region might fare in these very shipping activity in the region. Solomon Islands and Timor Leste) over the past 40 years. Coastal changes are destabilising critically different worlds (for full details: Even if the world succeeds in reducing and is the richest place on earth in deforestation, coastal reclamation, important ecosystems along the coasts. www.panda.org/coraltriangle). emissions, and slowing down or halting terms of biodiversity. In no more than declining water quality, pollution, Stresses arising from climate change climate change impacts, enough change 1% of the Earth’s surface, evolution sewage, destructive fishing and over- are also amplifying the impacts of Consideration of these two scenarios is already occurring to indicate that has produced species and ecosystems exploitation of marine life have had local stresses, leading to an accelerated leads to the irrefutable conclusion that action on global climate change without that are unrivalled in number, colour a severe impact on these essential deterioration of coastal ecosystems. stabilising atmospheric carbon dioxide dealing with these serious local issues will be ineffective, and vice versa. and diversity. Within its seas, ecosystems. This is placing many (CO2) at or below 450 parts per million lie the richest marine communities communities and businesses within While coastal ecosystems are facing (ppm) is absolutely essential if Coral and ecosystems found anywhere on the Coral Triangle at risk. enormous pressures from both local Triangle countries are to meet their This report delivers a sombre warning planet Earth. With over 30% of the and global factors, many areas within objective of retaining coastal ecosystems that decisive action must be taken world’s coral reefs, including 76% Climate change is now joining the the Coral Triangle show significant and allowing people to prosper in the immediately or a major crisis will of the world’s reef building corals stresses that are affecting Coral Triangle ecological resilience and are therefore coastal areas of the Coral Triangle. develop within the Coral Triangle and over 35% of the world’s coral ecosystems and people. Changing among the most likely to survive the The second major conclusion is that over the coming decades. There are reef fish species, the Coral Triangle weather patterns are causing floods, challenging times ahead. High levels changes to Coral Triangle ecosystems a number of actions, which, if taken is remarkable and invaluable. landslides and severe storms in some of biodiversity, coupled with fast rates are inevitable due to the lag effects of up by regional and world leaders, areas, and crippling drought in others. of growth and recovery, put many climate change and ocean acidification will help Coral Triangle countries This wonderful cauldron of evolution Rising sea levels are putting pressure Coral Triangle ecosystems in a on coastal and marine systems and avoid this crisis. The policy steps should be protected in its own right. on coastal communities through storm favourable position to survive climate associated terrestrial habitats. recommended by this report include: Its value, however, is much greater. surges and inundation of fresh water change. Some parts of the Coral In addition to the unique biological supplies. Under our present trajectory Triangle may have inherently slower To address the threat of these 1. Create a binding diversity of the Coral Triangle, over of unfettered growth in greenhouse rates of change in sea temperature and profound and negative changes in the international agreement 150 million people from some of the gas emissions, many parts of the Coral acidity, representing a potential refuge productivity of the system, the essential to reduce the rate and most diverse and rich cultures on our Triangle will be largely unliveable by in an otherwise rapidly changing world. goal must be to maintain ecosystems extent of climate change. planet live there. These people depend the end of this century. in their most healthy state in order To do this, emissions should peak on healthy ecosystems such as coral This summary report assembles to maximise ecological resilience to no later than 2020, and global reefs, mangroves and seagrass beds Climate change is already having a large amount of information on the climate change. Secondly, dependent warming limited to less than 2°C to provide food, building materials, a big impact on coastal ecosystems climate, biology, economics and social communities will need to adjust to above pre-industrial temperatures

coastal protection, support industries by warming, acidifying and rising dynamics of the Coral Triangle region their practices to take into account (i.e. atmospheric CO2 < 450 ppm) by such as fishing and tourism, and many seas. Reefs in the Coral Triangle and builds a picture of two possible the inevitable changes that will be 2100. This will require steep global other benefits. The services that these have experienced severe mass coral future scenarios. These scenarios are occurring in coastal areas. Therefore, cuts in emissions that are 80% below ecosystems provide support over bleaching and mortality events based around decisive international the region-wide national commitment 1990 levels by 2050. Inherent to this 100 million people who live along the as temperatures have periodically action (or non-action) on climate to address the serious threats to coastal recommendation is the creation coasts of the Coral Triangle islands. soared. These splendid reef systems change, combined with effective systems is essential. Coordination and of an aggregate group reduction will disappear if these events continue action (or non-action) on reducing collaboration is necessary to reduce the target for developed countries of 40% to increase in intensity and frequency. the impacts of local environmental stresses that coastal resources currently below 1990 levels by 2020, and a

4: THE CORAL TRIANGLE 5

reduction from business-as-usual actions not aim to restore or protect spending funds and taking actions adaptation strategies which may development planners so that they emission levels for developing ecosystems for past conditions, rather that exacerbate the problem prove most successful. Reducing can immediately implement these countries of at least 30% by 2020. they must prepare for conditions under of climate change. the influence of local stress factors new approaches. As the problem of a changing climate. on coastal ecosystems makes them climate change is not one that we will 2. Take immediate action 6. Establish governance able to better survive climate change be solving in this generation, planning to establish national 4. Support the structures that impacts. Protecting the diversity and responses to climate change will targets and plans to meet establishment of integrate resource of components (communities, be iterative as the target continues these commitments such a global fund to meet and development populations, and species) under the to move over the coming centuries. that the international the adaptation needs management to provide guidance and actions of local people Therefore, it will also be necessary to agreement can be of developing countries. robust protection strengthens the resolve of these develop training for future capacity achieved. While some of the cost of adapting of both in the face systems in the face of climate change. through education in academic or This report shows that nations in to climate change can be met by of climate change. other appropriate settings. Informed the Coral Triangle region have a redirecting current resources that Adaptation plans cannot be developed 8. Critically review and stakeholder and community great deal at stake if climate change are being used in a manner that is on a sector-by-sector basis. Doing revise conservation and engagement is at the core of continues unchecked. They must vulnerable to climate change, the so risks creating problems such as development efforts at successful adaptation, so in addition become part of the solution. They growing challenge of climate change adaptation being effective against the local, national and to professionals and students, civil must do this expeditiously. Lag- will result in new and increasing one issue but maladaptive against regional levels for their society must be given access to the times and non-linear responses in the costs. Funds will be required to meet another. It will be important to plan robustness in the face information they need to understand climate system mean that every day these costs given the nature of the holistically and create governance of climate change. and respond to climate change. we wait to take action, the problem problem and that the disproportionate structures that can support, implement Business-as-usual conservation and becomes protracted and dramatically brunt of the hardship caused by the and monitor these efforts. development will not achieve success. 10. Focus adaptation more difficult to address successfully. problem is borne by developing The new mode of action requires on playing a role in countries. International funds will 7. Build the socio- integration between conservation economic stimulus, 3. Pursue the be necessary to meet these needs. ecological resilience and development, and the realisation especially in job establishment of of coastal ecosystems that many past approaches are no creation and financial integrated coastal 5. Build adjustable and develop stakeholder longer effective due to the impacts mobilisation. zone management financial mechanisms into and community of climate change. Private-public sector incentive across the region. national budgeting to engagement processes for schemes, regional/international This step is essential if the current help cover the increasing communities to improve 9. Build capacity to arrangements and investment decline in the health of coastal costs of adaptation to their ability to survive engage in planning partnerships (e.g. national insurance ecosystems is to be reversed. This climate change. climate change impacts. for climate change. reform and special-access loan should include implementation of Climate change will require not only Involving coastal people and Climate change planning, both schemes) need to better incorporate policies that eliminate deforestation new funds, but also a reassessment of communities in planning provides mitigation and adaptation, will risk management and adaptation of coastal areas and river catchments, current spending so that funds are not greater stability and efficacy for require that we educate current and strategies to reduce investment reduce pollution, expand marine spent in ways that are not ‘climate- solutions to social and ecological future leaders and practitioners, as risk and maintain positive protected areas, regulate fishing smart’, in other words, on efforts that systems within the Coral Triangle. well as the concerned constituencies. financial conditions. pressures and abolish destructive are not resilient to climate change. Fundamentally, it will be local Mechanisms must be created to practices. It is important that these Every effort should be made to avoid knowledge that generates innovative train current resource managers and THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE The Imperative: Which Future Will We Choose?

The central objective of this study was to explore how the future will unfold BEST OR WORST CASE SCENARIO? examined in this report. The first The three A1 options are if we do or do not take action on climate change and other serious threats At the outset, it is sobering to note world takes only moderate steps to distinguished by their technological to coastal ecosystems in the Coral Triangle. To do this, scenarios were that the pathway that the world is deal with climate change, continues emphasis: fossil-intensive (A1FI), constructed from comprehensive information on environmental, biological, on today exceeds the worst-case to globalise and is driven by purely non-fossil energy sources (A1T), economic and social drivers within the Coral Triangle, based on updated global scenario described in this report. economic imperatives (A1 scenario or a balance across all sources (A1B). - here termed “worst case”). In the scenarios originally established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate At current growth rates of CO2 Change (2001). The latter were modified to include new and compelling emissions (>2 ppm year-1), we are second world, strong action is taken Given that the A1FI scenario is science published since the release of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report currently travelling along a trajectory on climate change, and robust regional considered too dangerous a future for in 2007. These scenarios form credible pictures of the future, which served to which exceeds even the disastrous A1 and international commitments exist the planet by most experts, the report illustrate the outcome of particular decisions that we make today. The data sets Fuel Intensive (A1FI) scenario of the that ensure environmental concerns assumes that the world will move and the complete description of these scenarios are included on the website for IPCC. Given the growing evidence and human welfare are tightly steadily away from fossil fuels and this report (www.panda.org/coraltriangle). of runaway climate change, feedback integrated with economic goals and develop technological capacity to use amplification and other dangerous objectives (B1 scenario – here termed a range of economically viable energy Figure 1. Schematic representation of the four major SRES scenarios (source IPCC 2001). “surprises” (e.g. sudden breakdown “best case”). solutions, including both renewable Different worlds represent different combinations of global/regional and economic/environmental drivers, sources and systems designed to and arise from a range of driving forces (represented as roots to the tree). A1 and B1 are global scenarios of polar ice), following this pathway that are dominated to different extents by economic (A1) versus environmental (B1) motivations. It is would result in rapid global change WORST CASE (A1B) make fossil fuel use environmentally important to note that economic and environmental goals may not necessarily oppose each other and with ensuing social, political and SCENARIO: FAILURE TO safe (such as carbon sequestration). certainly synergise in many circumstances (e.g. Triple Bottom Line). economic changes that are likely REDUCE CLIMATE CHANGE This is the A1B scenario, which SRES Scenarios to be devastating and unmanageable AMID ESCALATING LOCAL involves economic-growth orientated (and hence, not predictable to any THREATS balanced-energy use. Given the degree of certainty from 2060 or The A1 scenario describes a future serious challenges presented by the Economic thereabouts). Needless to say, this world typified by very rapid economic A1B world in which atmospheric scenario must be avoided at all costs. growth, a global population that peaks CO2 exceeds 750 ppm and global A1 A2 There is no longer any doubt that we in mid-century and declines thereafter, temperature rises more than likely to must make dramatic changes to our and the rapid introduction of new and exceed 3°C, this was adopted as the Global Regional energy use to reduce our greenhouse more efficient technologies. Major worst-case scenario of this study. B1 B2 gas emissions. underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, The full report discusses the complete The Special Report on Emissions and increased cultural and social set of demographic, social and Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC defines economic trends associated with Environmental interactions, with a substantial four basic scenarios (see FIGURE 1) reduction in regional differences in the A1B scenario. In this scenario, demographic and economic trends Ag based on their degree of economic per capita income. The A1 scenario y ri on cu are closely linked, as affluence is ti m (L la an lt versus environmental motivation, has three options that describe opu o y E d u P g n n - r o u e correlated with long life and small

o l e s and global versus regional focus. alternative directions of technological c o r

n g e E h y ) Tec Two possible future worlds are change in the energy system. Driving Forces

6: THETHE CORAL CORAL TRIANGLE TRIANGLE 7

families (low mortality and low IMPLICATIONS OF The rapidly changing climate required by thousands of organisms, Foreign aid to alleviate these food fertility). Global population grows to THE A1B SCENARIO FOR associated with the A1B scenario including important fisheries species. shortages dwindles as richer nations some 9 billion by 2050 and declines THE CORAL TRIANGLE leads to major impacts on the The result of these changes is face their own escalating problems to about 7 billion by 2100. The A basic outcome of the A1B scenario Coral Triangle through changing that coastal fisheries are severely and costs from climate change, and average age of citizens increases, is that poorer countries and their precipitation and soaring degraded by 2100. The ability of reef as the regularity and scale of these with the needs of retired people met people bear the negative impacts temperatures by 2050. The systems to provide food for coastal disasters expands. Tens of millions mainly through their accumulated of climate change. Within the Coral Philippines, Sabah and parts of populations decreases 50% by 2050, of people in the Coral Triangle savings in private pension systems. Triangle, this places the Solomon Indonesia (Sumatra, Java and and 80% by 2100 (compared to their region have to move from rural and Islands, Papua New Guinea and West Papua) are hit hard by ability to provide food today). coastal settings due to the loss of The A1B scenario sees concentrations Timor-Leste in the most vulnerable increasingly intense rainfall events homes, food resources and income, of 710 ppm CO2 by 2100, through category, especially as these which are alternated with long, severe putting pressure on regional cities a path taking it from 360 ppm in countries will experience serious droughts (in some areas), and in the and surrounding developed nations 2000 to about 410 ppm in 2020, impacts as global temperatures case of the Philippines, catastrophic such as Australia and New Zealand. 430 ppm in 2040, 550 in 2060, rise beyond 30C. All Coral Triangle typhoons. Rising seas steadily and 630 in 2080. All areas of the countries are considered to be inundate coastal communities across Coral Triangle will have carbonate Indonesia, further exacerbating the developing countries, although Figure 2. Hypothetical trajectory of the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and coral cover in a A1B world. ion concentrations (critical for Malaysia, with Indonesia and impacts of the increases in rainfall Stabilisation at 750 ppm marine calcification) by 2050 that the Philippines following and storm activity. These trends cause -1 increasing dislocation of people and 800 100 are less than 200 µmol kg H2O closely, may be on their way to communities through flooding and (i.e. the concentration required to Coral cover relative to today (%) newly industrialised status. This Atmospheric CO2 maintain carbonate coral reefs). storm damage, with growing scale 750 development may accelerate during Weak management The best-estimate of the increase the first two or three decades of this and frequency as the century unfolds. 700 in global temperature (nb: tropical century in a strong global economic sea temperatures mirror global growth scenario, before the full Coastal ecosystems are impacted 650 temperatures) will be more or less impact of climate change begins to heavily from warming seas which 2.8°C above today by 2100, with a cause increased coral bleaching 600 have major impacts on the economy 50 very high chance that it will exceed of these countries. Within the Coral and mortality (Figure 2). Rapidly 550 3 or even 4°C. While sea levels are Triangle, however, Sabah and increasing sea levels remove projected by the IPCC (2007) to Eastern Indonesia are significantly mangroves and inundate coastal 500 increase by an average of 28 cm groundwater supplies. These changes poorer than the rest of the countries 450 by the end of century, most recent result in the progressive loss of most to which they belong, so national Strong management estimates suggest that the minimum trends in development may not mangroves and coral reefs over 400 sea level rise is more likely to one apply as strongly to areas of these the next 50 years. These changes Atmospheric carbon dioxide (ppm) 350 metre by 2100. countries associated with the degrade habitats that are 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 Coral Triangle. Year THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Key Characteristics of the Worst-case Scenario

The key features of the worst-case (A1B) scenario for the Coral Triangle INCREASING VULNERABILITY provide 50% of the fish protein that conditions within crowded urban are summarised below. OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES they do today, leading to increasing environments, traditional, family and Rapidly rising sea levels will lead to pressure on coastal agriculture and cultural integrity are lost. Commercial DOWNWARD SPIRAL IN COASTAL ECOSYSTEM HEALTH AND BIODIVERSITY the steady loss of coastal land and aquaculture. Access to water for fisheries are likely to put further coastal agriculture, however, is likely pressure on regional communities Given that atmospheric CO2 will exceed 700 ppm under the A1B scenario, the inundation of coastal freshwater the health of coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs will steadily decrease supplies. Together with increasing to decrease sharply due to saltwater and their coastal resources. Fishery to a very low level by the end of the century. There will be few coral reefs, storm intensity, some parts of the inundation of coastal groundwater resources skyrocket in price with mangroves and seagrass beds that survive given the high sea temperatures, Coral Triangle will experience reduced as sea levels rise, while aquaculture increased demand, as do the activities low pH, suboptimal carbonate ion concentrations, and rapidly rising sea levels. protection from ocean waves, leading is likely to suffer from the impact of of illegal and unreported fisheries. Strong management efforts to reduce local threat factors will have minimal to an increasing frequency and scale reduced water quality caused by the affect on the decline, and there will be little chance of these ecosystems of damage to coastal communities loss of mangrove systems and other DETERIORATING REGIONAL SECURITY recovering for hundreds of years. The loss of these important habitats will and infrastructure. The extent of these coastal ecosystems. The reduced see approximately 40-50% of marine species decrease to very low abundance, changes will depend on the rate of availability of food in addition to While understanding and projecting and many will be driven to extinction. sea level rise although even the most the deterioration of water supplies how regional security will change optimistic projections of sea level is likely to cause increased health is a complex task, reduced food and change under the A1B scenario will problems and rising infant mortality. water security and the resulting cause major disruption to coastal National and international aid social disruption represents a communities. Increases in sea level resources may reduce as a result potent threat to regional security. of one metre or more will put tens of these wide-scale problems. Radicalisation of some sectors of of millions of people and their the community may follow, communities under extreme pressure. SOCIAL DISRUPTION increasing tensions and civil unrest Many millions will have to move from The movement of people from within the Coral Triangle region. coastal areas under these scenarios, communities in search of food and with serious consequences for inland income will lead to the breakdown “By 2050, coastal agriculture and other land use. of traditional societies, and increase social disruption. The pressure on ecosystems will REDUCED FOOD SECURITY coastal infrastructure from sea level The decreased productivity of rise together with reduced food only be able to coastal ecosystems will reduce availability is likely to cause social provide 50% of the food resources and income disruption on large scales. Traditional available to coastal communities in fishing communities increasingly the fish protein the Coral Triangle. By 2050, coastal migrate to cities and towns. As a ecosystems will only be able to result of the increasingly desperate that they do today.”

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Table 1: IPCC scenarios: likelihood that each will stabilise at particular increases in CO2 concentrations Temperature change (0C) Likelihood that temperature change will be in range CO2 ppm Scenario abundance (crude measure based on IPCC 2007) Best estimate Likely range in 2100 1-1.990C 2-2.990C 3-3.990C 4-4.990C 50C+ B1 1.8 1.1 - 2.9 545 50% 50% A1T 2.4 1.7 - 3.8 578 14% 48% 38% B2 2.4 1.7 - 3.8 616 14% 48% 38% A1B 2.8 1.7 - 4.4 710 11% 37% 37% 15% A2 3.4 2.0 - 5.4 846 29% 29% 29% 12% A1FI 4.0 2.4 - 6.4 964 15% 25% 25% 35%

Source: Based on IPCC 2007 Synthesis Report, Table 3.1. Notes: 1. These estimates are from various sources including a large number of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). They do not take account any deterioration of climate change prospects after IPCC 2007 was finalized. The estimates are therefore conservative. 2. Temperature changes are expressed as the increase from 1980-1999 to 2090-99. To express the change relative to the period 1850-1899 add 0.50C. 3. The three A1 scenarios are A1T (non-fossil energy resources), A1FI (fossil-intensive), and A1B (balance across all energy resources). A1 and A2 are driven by economics (mostly short-term gains), globally and regionalized, respectively. B1 and B2 put more emphasis on protecting environmental resources, again either in a global context or in a world with many regions working independently. THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Best Case (B1) Scenario: Decisive international action on climate change while building sustainable coastlines and communities

The central elements of the B1 scenario family are a high level of environmental basis of poverty. However, counter- The target of 545 ppm CO2 in 2100 is with determination (requiring the and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to more currents may develop and in some likely to become rapidly unacceptable world to decisively leave the current sustainable development. In this storyline, governments, businesses, the media, places people may not conform to according to the latest science (detailed business–as-usual pathway). and the public pay increased attention to the environmental and social aspects the main social and environmental in the full report), as is the path Under this scenario, temperatures of development. Globally, appreciation of the importance of triple bottom line intentions of the mainstream. The towards that target: 405 ppm in 2020, increase an additional 2.20C by 2100. solutions that balance economic, ecological and social needs grows. As in the income redistribution and high taxation 425 in 2040, 490 in 2060, and 535 ppm The reduction in emissions to 90% A1B world, technological change plays an important role. levels required may adversely affect the in 2080. This puts increasing pressures of today’s level by 2050 has a small economic efficiency and functioning on policies to drastically reduce but significant impact on the rate Economic development in B1, however, is balanced, and efforts to achieve of world markets. emissions, possibly starting from 2015. of temperature change relative to the a more equitable distribution of income are effective. As in A1, the B1 storyline A1B trajectory, with this difference describes a fast-changing and convergent world, but their priorities differ. Referring to Table 1, the best-estimate The challenge of staying within increasing to become very significant Whereas the A1 world invests its gains from increased productivity and know- stabilisation level for scenario B1 sustainable levels of atmospheric by the end of the century. how primarily in further economic growth, the B1 world invests a large part of is 1.8oC above today’s temperature, greenhouse gases (below 450 ppm)

its gains in improved efficiency of resource use, equity, social institutions and with a 50% risk that global temperature remains a formidable one. In the best As the concentration of CO2increases environmental protection. A strong welfare net prevents social exclusion on the might stabilise between 2 and 3oC. case world, these challenges are met in the atmosphere, Coral Triangle

“Effective management of coastal resources through a range of options including locally-managed regional networks of marine protected areas, protection of mangrove and seagrass beds and effective management of fisheries results in a slower decline in these resources.”

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waters experience carbonate ion communities are able to absorb still significant relative to today). expansion of these ecosystems in the the latter part of this century, greater concentrations that approach but stay greater challenges and hardships Disturbances to rainfall patterns early part of next century. Effective amounts of development aid at both slightly above the critical value (some of which we cannot hope cause serious problems in parts of management national and international levels help -1 coastal communities cope with the of 200 µmol kg H2O by 2060 to predict) through greater economic, the Coral Triangle, and typhoons in of coastal resources through a range due to continuing proactive efforts social and cultural resilience. the Philippines increase in intensity. of options including locally-managed changes that they face. While there for deep cuts in the use of fossil fuels. Investment in infrastructure Moderately severe droughts push some regional networks of marine protected are movements of people increasingly Like the A1B scenario, sea level rise and resource management at communities into periodic hardship. areas, protection of mangrove towards urban centres as coastal is projected to increase around the village and township level While these conditions cause some and seagrass beds and effective ecosystems decline, the reduced 25-35 cm by the end of century (IPCC lead to greater supply of natural dislocation of people and communities management of fisheries results in rate of climate change enables other 2007) but most recent estimates and social capital with which to through flooding, sea level rise and a slower decline in these resources. resources such as agriculture and aquaculture to fill important gaps foresee the minimum sea level rise in respond to the challenges. storm damage, the scale and frequency in food supply. the vicinity of 50 cm by 2050. of the impacts decrease dramatically Due to the B1 world being a richer and more connected world towards In this world, atmospheric CO2 toward the latter part of the century. IMPLICATIONS OF content begins to stabilise around the THE B1 SCENARIO FOR middle to late part of the century. Warming and acidifying seas kill Figure 3. Hypothetical trajectory of the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and coral cover in a B1 world. THE CORAL TRIANGLE It continues to find solutions to coral and decrease reef calcification

The impacts of a changing climate continue reducing CO2 emissions as atmospheric CO2 approaches 450 have large effects on coastal areas through strict international control. ppm. Carbonate ion concentrations 480 of the Coral Triangle and the Sufficient food resources remain are low but remain above the 200 100 availability of protein from fisheries available to enable Coral Triangle μmol.kg-1 H O, leading to reduced Coral cover relative to today (%) 2 460 Atmospheric CO is reduced to half of present levels. communities to survive despite coral growth as well as cover (but 2 Sea levels increase by 50 cm by 2050, decreases in the productivity of not as low as in A1B, c.f. Figure 2 440 as in the worse-case scenario. While coastal fisheries. Areas with low with Figure 3). Increasing sea level Strong management this may look pessimistically like the food supplies, including those in plus rising storm intensity lead to 420 worst-case (A1B) world, there are the three largest Coral Triangle reductions in the overall extent and some important differences. countries (Indonesia, Philippines and condition of mangrove and seagrass 400 50 Malaysia) have been supported in beds, with consequences for habitats One of the characteristics of the this interconnected and significantly and species abundance across the 380 Weak management B1 scenario is that communities richer world. coastal zone. As in the A1B scenario, remain reasonably intact, and hence warming and acidifying seas drive 360 are in a better position to cope with While the B1 world is certainly not a steady deterioration of coastal 340 fairly severe hardships surrounding without its challenges, it experiences ecosystems, with the difference Atmospheric carbon dioxide (ppm) the gradual 50 cm sea level rise by environmental challenges that are that effective management leads to 320 0 2050 on coastal fishing, agricultural relatively smaller than those seen in a delay in their decline (green line 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 and urban communities. More intact the A1B the world (but which are in B1 figure), then recovery and Year THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Key Characteristics of the Best-case Scenario

The key features of the best-case Until atmospheric CO2 stabilises, stress factors and to protect important As with the worst-case scenario, more confident about meeting the (B1) scenario for the Coral Triangle coastal ecosystems will continue habitats and refugia have a large rising sea levels lead to the steady loss challenges. Significant numbers of are summarised below. to face stress from rising sea positive influence on the abundance of land and the inundation of coastal people will still have to be absorbed temperatures, reduced carbonate and health of coastal ecosystems. water supplies, and the risk of damage into urban areas as their communities REDUCED BUT EVENTUALLY concentrations and rising sea levels. from storms increases with storm are inundated, but the numbers of REBOUNDING COASTAL The abundance of healthy corals, CHALLENGED BUT RESILIENT intensity and higher sea levels. people moving will be far less than ECOSYSTEM HEALTH AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES BIODIVERSITY mangrove and seagrass communities These challenges start to increase that seen in the A1B scenario. will decline but will eventually rebound Coastal communities will still face steadily over the next couple of The atmospheric CO concentrations 2 as atmospheric CO stabilises. Under significant challenges despite the decades but will start to decrease STABILISED FOOD SECURITY stabilise at or just below 450 ppm 2 this scenario, strong management implementation of effective measures around 2050. Coastal communities As in the A1B scenario, the under the modified B1 scenario. efforts to reduce the impacts of local to stabilise atmospheric CO2. have more resources and are productivity of coastal ecosystems will decrease, with the result that there is 50% less protein from coastal resources by 2050. The difference, however, is that alternative resource options exist through agriculture and aquaculture, which occur within a B1 landscape that is more environmentally aware than the A1B. Finding alternative water resources may represent important challenges to coastal communities for the first part of the century as saltwater driven by rapid sealevel rise inundates groundwater. The more intact mangrove systems, having been protected and managed, will help maintain water quality along coastlines which adds to the resilience of coastal ecosystems, slowing their decline until they start to recover at the end of the century. Local communities collaborate with regional bodies on integrated coastal management,

12: THE CORAL TRIANGLE 13

with many traditional societies and regulation of local fisheries. EPILOGUE TO SCENARIOS playing direct and important roles. Commercial fishing is regulated Predicting the precise nature of Coastal ecosystems like coral reefs by a regional set of agreements future worlds is inherently difficult benefit from integrated marine among Coral Triangle nations, given the vast number of unknowns, protected areas, and provide leading to a stabilisation of fish and their interactions and synergies. sustainable resources. Carefully stock numbers and availability. Establishing scenarios from the constructed regional policies on analysis of likely drivers illustrates fishing preserve and strengthen STRENGTHENED REGIONAL SECURITY different potential futures based on regional economic benefits. Although decisions taken today. In the two The reduced levels of poverty food and water security are reduced, scenarios examined in this report, the as well as the preservation of communities suffer less from health two worlds stand in stark contrast strong community ties lead to issues and infant mortality is lower, to each other, depending very much reduced mobility of people and the and receive greater support from on which steps we take today to resulting social disruption. There is national and international aid sources. influence the rate of climate change, correspondingly less marginalisation and to deal with the other serious REDUCED SOCIAL CHALLENGES of sectors of society within the threats that face coastal ecosystems region. Within a world that is more The movement of people out of their across the Coral Triangle. communities in search of food and connected and environmentally sensitive, these trends mean that income has been reduced, resulting There is no credible argument to regional security is significantly in a lower level of social disruption. say that the unique biodiversity and strengthened. Partnerships like People are in a much better situation economies of the Coral Triangle the Coral Triangle Initiative form under this scenario compared to the will be safe if we continue to pump important mechanisms by which A1B scenario, especially towards the carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. issues are resolved peacefully across later part of the century. This more Equally, there is no credible argument the region, with benefits for all collaborative and integrated world to say that ignoring the threats partners, and are extended to other leads to a strengthening of social that these ecosystems face from challenges facing CT6 nations. bonds between people and their escalating overfishing, pollution The common set of goals for the coastal resources, maintaining social and deteriorating water quality will Coral Triangle serves as a uniting resilience and traditional values and ensure their future. Knowing this, it purpose for the region, with benefits beliefs. The latter is used to support is imperative that we take immediate to a wider sphere of national and local, community-based management and decisive action to deal with both regional objectives. of marine protected areas, these serious threats. THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE The Global Challenge: Climate Change

Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time, and is set to radically LONGER AND MORE INTENSE transform the world we live in. It has been driven by rapid increases in FLOODS AND DROUGHTS

atmospheric greenhouse gases (primarily CO2) arising from the burning of There are some indications that

fossil fuels by industrialised countries. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are equatorial Pacific rainfall, especially now 37% higher than they have been at any time in the past 650,000 years, and in the vicinity of the ITCZ (Inter- probably the last 20 million years. These changes have resulted in a dramatic tropical Convergence Zone), will warming of the planet, which is 0.7°C above pre-industrial temperatures, and increase although there are conflicting is currently increasing at the rate of 0.12°C per decade. Rates of change are scenarios provided by different also several orders of magnitude higher than anything seen in the last million climate models. Even without changes years. The impacts have already been dramatic. The loss of over 70% of the in average rainfall, it seems likely summer ice that has been stable in the Arctic Ocean for many thousands of years that rainfall events will become more emphasies the seriousness of the situation for the environment and for humanity. extreme and the annual variability of monsoon rainfall will increase. There IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN is evidence that this key change has already begun to occur. Importantly, Predicting how local environments will change in a rapidly warming world ACIDIC SEAS WILL DRIVE Triangle within the period 2020-2050 the intensity of drought will be greater is challenging, especially for a region like the Coral Triangle. Ultimately, REEF COLLAPSE (Figure 6), with the real possibility in a warmer world, severely affecting the accuracy of any projection depends on how atmospheric CO2 continues Ocean acidification has already driven that many coral reefs will begin to large parts of the Philippines and other to change, aspects of climate inertia, and the degree to which models can pH downward by approximately crumble and disappear as corals fail areas of the Coral Triangle (Figure 7). be downscaled to the regional level. Nonetheless, there are general trends 0.1 pH units due to absorption by to maintain the calcium carbonate emerging in the climate of the Coral Triangle region which allow us to project structures that underpin them. This the surface oceans of approximately SEA LEVELS RISING 0.5, 1.0 with some certainty how conditions will change over the next 50 to 100 years. 30% of the extra CO2 injected into will have huge consequences for OR 6.0 METRES? It should be stressed that these projections are likely to be conservative, with the atmosphere from the burning the tens of thousands of species Sea level has already increased many leading scientists now concluding that we are likely to see the upper of fossil fuels and other human dependent on coral reefs. On longer and projections from the Fourth extremes of these projections eventuate. activities. This is driving carbonate timescales, protection of coastal cities Assessment Report of the IPCC ion concentrations downward, thereby and infrastructure from ocean waves CORAL TRIANGLE SEAS WILL BE WARMER BY 1-4OC suggest that seas will rise by 30 to reducing the ability of corals and by coral reefs may disappear, which 60cm by 2100. Further research The annual, maximum and minimum temperatures of the oceans surrounding other marine calcifiers to build their could be catastrophic for millions of o since the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment the coastal areas of the Coral Triangle are warming significantly (0.09 – 0.12 C skeletons. Available evidence suggests people, especially when combined Report (June 2007, Table 3) suggests per decade, Figure 4, Table 2) and are projected to increase by 1-4°C toward that these conditions will become with rapid sea level rise and more that these projections may have the end of this century (Figure 5). This will put pressure on coral reefs through “marginal” for coral reefs of the Coral intense storms. increased bleaching, disease and mortality. Increases of more than 2°C will underestimated sea levels by a eliminate most coral dominated reef systems. considerable amount. Most sea level experts now project that the

14: THE CORAL TRIANGLE 15

minimum sea level rise is likely is already occurring. Large parts of In this respect, we know very little to be one metre by the end of the the Coral Triangle lie outside the about how ocean circulation within century. Palaeological evidence cyclone/typhoon belts and may be the Coral Triangle will change reveals that major ice sheets on the unaffected. However, the Philippines under the influence of increasing sea planet can break down over decades and Solomon Islands, which are temperatures and ocean dynamics. (much more rapidly than previously affected by typhoons and cyclones, Changes in the circulation of oceans thought), with huge consequences are likely to experience changes in within the Coral Triangle would for the sea level. Many scientists their intensity and impact. have significant impacts on the are now warning that rapid ice sheet climate and biology of the region. discharges from Antarctica and EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN Greenland are almost inevitable, OSCILLATION EVENTS leading to the prospect of sea levels These large-scale perturbations Figure 4: Rapid changes in the sea surface temperature are already to the global climate have a major occurring in the Coral Triangle. Changes across the coral triangle over the increasing by as much as four to six period 1985-2006. Note the very high rates of increase in sea temperature metres over the next several hundred influence on sea temperature and in the northern parts of the Coral Triangle. This suggests that within a very rainfall within the Coral Triangle. short period of time, temperatures may exceed those that corals can tolerate. years. These higher levels of change (Peñaflor et al., Coral Reefs in press; with kind permission of Springer represent a major unknown in There is no clear consensus as to Science and Business Media). the future of all coastal societies; how the frequency and intensity of the impacts shown in this report El Niño and Southern Oscillation indicate potentially catastrophic events will change in a warming world consequences for the Coral Triangle although there is growing evidence and its people. that the Pacific is likely to become more “El Niño like”. This phenomenon MORE INTENSE CYCLONES is likely to continue as a significant AND TYPHOONS source of annual climate variability in There is no clear consensus amongst the Coral Triangle region. global climate models as to whether the location or frequency of tropical MANY OTHER PARAMETERS cyclones/typhoons will change WILL CHANGE in a warming world but they all Given the complexity of the types agree that storms will become more of changes that are occurring, and intense (greater maximum wind will occur, within the Coral Triangle, speeds and heavier rainfall). Indeed, many other aspects of the Coral there is substantial evidence that this Triangle region may change as well. THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE The Global Challenge: Climate Change

Table 2: Temperatures are sharply increasing across the Coral Triangle region. Location of 3 CT-SST regions Linear trend, 1950-2008 and temperature difference (1989-2008)-(1950-1969) for three Coral Triangle regions and global land and sea temperatures and tropical ssts (all values significant at 5% level).

oC per decade Global Land Tropical sea surface CT Region 1 CT Region 2 CT Region 3 & Sea Temperature Trend 0.12 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.11 Difference (oC) 0.45 0.29 0.49 0.37 0.44 1 3

Projected global temperature changes, sea-level rise (relative to 1980-99) and co Table 3: 2 2 concentrations for various sres scenarios (Bindoff et al., 2007; Meehl et al., 2007). The last column lists the expected outcome under each scenario.

Scenario Temperature Sea level rise CO2 Outcome for coral reefs B1 (modified) +1.8 (1.1-2.9) oC 0.18-0.38 m 450 ppm Decrease of coral communities to 10-30% of today’s abundance; reef structures struggle to maintain themselves. Reducing the impact of local stressors becomes extremely important under this scenario. A2 +3.4 (2.0-5.4) oC 0.23-0.51 m 750-800 Complete collapse of coral communities due to ppm mass coral bleaching and mortality, and conditions which will slow and reverse coral reef accretion and maintenance. A1FI +4.0 (2.4-6.4) oC 0.26-0.59 m 950-1000 Complete collapse of coral communities. Must be ppm avoided at all costs.

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Sea temperatures will increase Ocean acidity will rise Rainfall patterns are likely to change

Figure 5: Trends in ocean temperature will continue and will intensify Figure 6. Reef calcification will decrease to very low levels if atmosphericco 2 Figure 7: Major changes in precipitation will cause larger flood events and longer droughts. under both b1 and a2 (and a1b) scenarios. Multi-model annual mean increases above 450 ppm. Projected changes in the aragonite saturation state (i.e. Multi-model seasonal precipitation differences (%) for b1 (top) and a2 (bottom) scenarios during surface temperature differences (C°) for b1 (top row) and a2 (bottom row) availability of calcium and carbonate ions required for calcification) of sea water as a Dec-Feb versus Jun-Aug for periods 2026-2035 and 2090-2099. for period 2026-2035 and 2090-2099 (relative to 1980-1999). (Data provided function of atmospheric co2 concentration (white number in each panel, ppm). The pink by Julie Arblaster based on Meehl et al., 2007). dots represent the current distribution of carbonate coral reef ecosystems. The regions B1 scenario Dec-Feb suitable for coral reefs are defined by the blue areas – note that the conditions necessary for carbonate reef development contract to the equator (and the Coral Triangle) with 2026 - 2035 2090 - 2099 increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (reprinted with permission from Science 10 N B1 B1 Magazine, Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007).

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120E 140E 160E 120E 140E 160E THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Small Changes Have Big Impacts

The coastal ecosystems that define the Coral Triangle are extremely sensitive CORAL REEFS WILL maintain the reefs that they build today. through defoliation. In turn, this will BEGIN TO DISAPPEAR AS CO to changes in the environment around them. While the change in global 2 These changes are not merely academic result in increased wave action and CONCENTRATIONS APPROACH o predictions; recent research has shown serious damage to seagrass beds. temperature may seem small (e.g. 0.09 – 0.12 C per decade), climate change 450 PPM is already having a major impact on coastal ecosystems. Warming over that the calcification of corals in places Small increases in sea temperature the past century has pushed ecosystems such as coral reefs closer to their like Thailand and Australia’s Great NOT JUST ABOUT CORALS, of only 1-2oC above today’s summer MANGROVES AND SEAGRASS environmental limits, with the effect that natural variability Barrier Reef has already slowed by sea temperatures will cause serious (e.g. a warmer than average year) puts these important ecosystems under 15% since 1990. Corals, mangroves and seagrass are coral bleaching, disease and mortality. serious pressure. When combined with environmental stresses such as poor centrally important organisms which In 1998, the world lost 16% of its water quality, pollution or unsustainable fishing, these changes will eliminate MANGROVES AND SEAGRASS BEDS construct the habitat for hundreds of corals in a single global cycle of mass ARE SEVERELY THREATENED BY functional coral reefs and other ecosystems like mangroves from the coastlines thousands of other organisms. In the coral bleaching, which involved sea SEALEVEL RISE of the Coral Triangle. As has been argued elsewhere in this report, the case of fish, the elimination of coral temperatures reaching 1-3oC above the Mangroves and seagrass beds are consequences of these changes for coastal communities are extremely serious. reefs compromises the survival of at long-term average for a few months. also crucial components of the least 30 to 50% of species that need Coral reefs across the Coral Triangle coastal ecosystems of the Coral corals and the reefs they build for have been hit hard by mass coral Triangle. Like coral reefs, mangrove food, shelter and reproduction. Similar bleaching events which have become and seagrass ecosystems provide relationships exist between many more frequent and intense since the habitat for thousands of species, and organisms that live in mangroves and early 1980s. In many cases, particularly ecosystem services that are essential seagrass beds. The loss of these key where reefs have been well managed, to the functioning of the coastline and organisms would mean enormous they have recovered. At the same time, to its human inhabitants. Increasing changes to the productivity of coastal however, ocean acidification is driving sea level represents the greatest threat regions and their ability to support another set of insidious changes in the to mangroves, especially when the people and societies. To lose them health of coral reefs. Ocean acidification rate of change exceeds the rate of would be to forego any chance of

occurs when CO2 enters the ocean and change in the surface elevation of sustainable future economic prosperity. reacts with water, creating a dilute mangrove sediments. These changes acid. The increasing acidity reduces result in a landward migration of INTERACTIONS BETWEEN GLOBAL the availability of carbonate ions in mangroves, which occurs if the rate AND LOCAL FACTORS seawater, which allow corals and of sea level rise remains small and Global and local factors causing other organisms to make their calcium where suitable land is available for stress on coastal ecosystems do not carbonate skeletons. Atmospheric this landward migration. Increasingly act independently. For example, coral

concentrations of CO2 that exceed strong storms in many parts of the reefs that have experienced significant 450 ppm slow the calcification of corals Coral Triangle (e.g. Philippines) mortality from global warming to the point where they will struggle to will increase damage to mangroves will recover many times faster if

18: THE CORAL TRIANGLE 19

seaweed-eating (herbivorous) fish “In the case of fish, are protected. This is because corals need these herbivorous fish to control the elimination seaweeds so that corals can recruit and grow into places where they of coral reefs have been eliminated. If seaweeds compromises become too abundant, corals will be lost through smothering and failed the survival of recruitment. Similarly, the impacts of global warming combined with ocean at least 30 to 50% acidification cause a greater impact of species that on corals than each factor on its own. Recent research has shown that corals need corals and will bleach and die at much lower temperatures if exposed to ocean the reefs they build acidification at the same time. The for food, shelter interaction of local and global factors suggests an important opportunity and reproduction.” for reducing the impacts of global change on coral reefs. For example, improving water quality or protecting herbivorous fish populations have the potential to increase the ecological resilience of coral reefs to the impacts of global warming and ocean acidification. These strategies will buy important time for coastal ecosystems in the Coral Triangle while the international community struggles to achieve deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE The Coral Triangle: The Earth’s Storehouse of Biological Diversity

“If we look at a globe or a map of the Eastern Hemisphere, we shall EVOLUTION’S CAULDRON which underpin the biodiversity Coral Triangle, many of which are perceive between Asia and Australia a number of large and small The 19th-century biologist, Alfred and human dependants of coastal unknown to science. islands, forming a connected group distinct from those great masses of Russell Wallace, became fascinated regions within the Coral Triangle. Like reef-building corals, the MANGROVE FORESTS land and having little connexion with either of them. Situated upon the by the incredible biological AND SEAGRASS BEDS diversity of the Coral Triangle, highest concentration of mangrove equator, and bathed in the tepid water of the great tropical oceans, this Mangroves forests and seagrass and was among the first to recognise and seagrass species occurs in the region enjoys a climate more uniformly hot and moist than almost any beds are important and often its central importance to the Coral Triangle. All three of these other part of the globe, and teems with natural productions which are underappreciated components biodiversity of the planet. Today, the organisms are the architects of vast elsewhere unknown.” of the coastal ecosystems within significance of this megadiversity is and important coastal ecosystems the Coral Triangle. Occupying large Alfred Russell Wallace, The Malay Archipelago (1869) recognised by the fact that four the and have their biodiversity within parts of the coastal areas within the world’s 25 terrestrial biodiversity the Coral Triangle. HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF UNIQUE SPECIES IN 1% OF EARTH’S SURFACE Coral Triangle, these two ecosystems hotspots (selected for their species CORAL REEFS also provide important habitats The Coral Triangle lies in the waters of six countries in Southeast Asia: richness and threatened status) and ecological services across the the eastern half of Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia (Sabah), Timor-Leste, Papua are found within the Coral Triangle Coral reefs cover over 100,000 region. Mangrove and seagrass beds New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands, occupying approximately 6.8 million region. Rich mountain forests and square kilometres of the Coral provide shelter to countless numbers square kilometres (just over 1% of the Earth’s surface). In this area, there are over woodlands cover the islands of the Triangle, which represents roughly of species, and resources that are 18,500 islands, of which only a small fraction are inhabited. With so many islands, Coral Triangle, providing habitats one third of all the coral reefs in the critical to fisheries, coastal processes the coastline of this region is impressive and stretches 132,800 kilometres. The for thousands of unique species. world. At the heart of these reefs and people. These ecosystems are dominance of the region by islands dictates an enormous influence of the ocean Beneath the waters exists a similarly are reef-building corals that form also intimately connected to coral over the physical and biological characteristics of the region. impressive biological diversity, an intimate association with tiny reefs through the flow of energy with enormous numbers corals, single-celled algae which in turn and nutrients from one ecosystem to fish, crustaceans and most other allow corals to build the magnificent another. Many important fisheries types of marine organisms. More calcium carbonate reef structures. species spend some of their life marine species exist in the Coral The renowned structures of coral cycle within seagrass meadows and Triangle than are found in all the reefs provide a habitat for thousands mangrove ecosystems. Charismatic other tropical oceans put together. of fish, invertebrates, plants and mega-fauna like dugongs and sea The Coral Triangle bubbles with other species, making coral reefs turtles are wholly dependent on life like an evolutionary cauldron. the most biologically complex ecosystem on the planet. While the presence of healthy seagrass KEY COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS scientists do not have a precise meadows for survival. There are a number of centrally figure, it is estimated that anywhere between one and nine million species A living specimen of the unique coelacanth (Latimeria manadoensis) discovered off Manado, important coastal ecosystems Sulawesi in 1997 by Dr Mark V Erdmann (photographer). live on coral reefs like those of the

20: THE CORAL TRIANGLE 21

The major marine biodiversity Global Distribution of Coral, Mangrove and Seagrass Diversity is not simply restricted to corals. The Coral Triangle contains 52% Coral Distribution of Indo-Pacific reef fishes (37% of all reef fish species in the world). Major groups, including molluscs, soft corals, crustaceans and many other types of organisms have their highest concentration of biodiversity within the Coral Triangle. While Diversity Diversity many live on coral reefs, others Low High Mangrove Distribution live in the mangrove forests and Low High seagrass meadows. Each year sees the discovery of hundreds of new species from the rich ecosystems of the Coral Triangle. Coral Triangle Boundary source: Green and Mous (2008), © The Nature Conservancy Green Diversity AN URGENT Diversity UNMATCHED BIODIVERSITY Peninsula of Indonesian Papua, CONSERVATION PRIORITY Low High which hosts 574 species. Individual Low High The proportion of global marine The megadiversity found on land reefs there have over four times Seagrass Distribution biodiversity found within Coral and along the rich coastlines of the the total number of species of Triangle is nothing short of Coral Triangle dictate that the region reef-building corals than in the entire astounding. The Coral Triangle has a special place in the biological Atlantic Ocean. includes a third of all coral reefs, inheritance of the Earth. This natural and includes 11 distinct ecoregions treasure chest is also of enormous and 32 functional seascapes. Diversity “The Coral Triangle Diversity importance to the well-being of PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ In total, the Coral Triangle has 605 UNEP Low High MAY 2002 people and societies in the region. PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ includes a third UNEP MAY 2002 reef-building corals amounting to Low High Protecting it has become a priority Source : UNEP-WCMC, 2001. 76% of the world’s total species of all coral reefs ... for governments and conservation complement. Within the Coral along 132,800 km groups the world over. Figure 8. Global distribution of coral, mangrove and seagrass diversity (courtesy UNEP-WCMC, 2001) Triangle, the highest number coral species is found near the Bird’s Head of coastline.” THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE The Coral Triangle: The Earth’s Storehouse of Biological Diversity

Table 1: Key geographic, demographic, economic and environmental data for the Coral Triangle countries

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Timor Leste PNG Solomon Islands Total or average Geographic indicators Total land area (thousand km2)* 1,919 330 298 15 463 28 3,053 Coastline in CT (thousand km)** 66.8 4.5 34.3 0.8 16.5 9.9 132.8 Coral reef area (thousand km2)* 51.0 3.6 25.8 0.8 13.8 5.8 100.8 Mangrove area (thousand km2)* 42.6 6.4 1.6 1.5 5.4 0.6 58.1 Number of coral species (Veron, 2009) 574 540 533 514 514 507 530 (CT total = 605) Number of fish species (Allen, 2008, Table 1) 2122 1549 1790 1500 1635 1371 1693 (CT total = 2230) Number of mangrove species* 45 36 30 na 44 22 35 Number of seagrass species* 13 12 19 na 7 3 11 Percent reefs at risk* 82 91 97 46 46 46 68 Demographic indicators Population (millions)** 242 26 98 1.1 6.1 0.6 374 Growth rate (% per annum) 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.4 1.9 Life expectancy at birth 70.1 73.9 71.3 60.2 57.0 63.2 66.0 Median age (years) 28.1 24.9 22.5 21.8 21.7 19.8 23.1 Urban population (% total) 48 61 63 27 13 17 38 Urban population increase (% per anum) 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.4 2.5 4.2 3.8 Urban/total rate of increase (ratio) 4.0 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.8 2.2 Fish consumption (kg/person per year) 21.3 59.8 28.8 10.0 19.6 49.2 31.5 Economic indicators GDP per capita (PPP, US$) $3,900 $15,700 $3,400 $2,500 $2,300 $1,900 $4,950 GDP growth (per annum) 5.9 5.5 4.6 2.5 6.3 10.0 5.8 Inflation (CPI growth) rate 10.5 5.8 9.3 7.8 8.8 6.3 8.1 Unemployment rate 10.5 3.6 7.3 20-40 > 80 na 7.1 Environmental indicators Forested area (% land area) 48.8 63.6 24.0 53.7 65.0 77.6 55.5 Deforestation rate (average p.a. 1990-2005) 1.6 0.4 2.2 1.2 0.4 1.4 1.2 National protected areas (% land area) 14.3 30.7 8.2 4.6 1.6 0.1 9.9

CO2 emissions (tons per annum per capita) 1.4 6.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.6

Growth in CO2 emissions 1990-2003 29.4 64.7 43 na 3.4 6.2 29.3

*From Spalding et al. (2001); **Length of coastlines within the Coral Triangle - Nate Peterson, Stu Sheppard, The Nature Conservancy, based on Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM; NASA) using metadata from SRTM Waterbodies: U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resource Observation and Science (EROS), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), ESRI, 20061001, ESRI® Data & Maps 2006 World, Europe, United States, Canada, and Mexico, ESRI, Redlands, California, USA

22: THE CORAL TRIANGLE 23 THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Coastal People, Communities and Economies at Risk

Over 370 million people live within the six countries that make up the HEALTHY ECOSYSTEMS MEAN Coral Triangle, where population growth rates range from 1.1% (Indonesia) HEALTHY COMMUNITIES to 2.4% (Solomon Islands). Of these people, 150 million live inside the Coral Given the many benefits which Triangle, with approximately 100 million people being directly dependent flow from coastal ecosystems and in one way or another on the resources flowing from coastal ecosystems. support people, it is not surprising to find that the deterioration COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS ARE CRITICAL TO LIVELIHOODS of coastal ecosystems is often Coastal ecosystems are crucial for human survival within the Coral Triangle region. associated with poverty and hardship In addition to providing daily food and income to millions who forage along the among coastal people. In the best shoreline to support their families, coastal ecosystems provide a huge range of circumstances, coral reefs and other other services. Commercial fisheries provide important income for individuals and coastal ecosystems provide food and for regional governments. The role of coastal ecosystems goes far beyond these materials for coastal people. When immediate economic benefits. Coral reefs provide coastal barriers which protect the systems deteriorate, the ability of people, infrastructure and cities against wave action and storm damage. Mangroves these ecosystems to provide support and seagrass beds stabilise sediments, and support fisheries by providing habitats for for people is severely diminished. juvenile fish and invertebrates. These ecosystems are particularly crucial as coastal The results of these changes can filters, trapping sediments and nutrients, as well as absorbing pollutants flowing mean further poverty, and may even from the land to the sea. Together with coral reefs, these ecosystems are critically mobilise people towards large cities important to the stability and health of coastal environments. and urban environments, where they join already disenfranchised people in large sprawling settlements. This breaks up families, disrupts communities and destroys cultures. For this reason, action to preserve the Coral Triangle is not only about protecting biodiversity, it is also about securing the resources that allow tens of millions of people to live sustainably and continue to engage in vibrant local economies.

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SUSTAINING ECONOMIC GROWTH Industries such as tourism are INTO THE FUTURE growing steadily and providing Ultimately, healthy communities increasing international earnings within the Coral Triangle region will and employment opportunities need to be able to sustain their income within the Coral Triangle region. and economic strengths over the Tourism depends heavily on coastal coming decades. Maintaining healthy ecosystems providing tourist businesses based on industries such incentives such as clean beaches as well-managed and sustainable and clear coastal water for swimming, fisheries will continue to reap as well as diverse reef communities tremendous benefits for the people of for tourists to experience through the Coral Triangle. Fisheries provide boating, scuba and snorkelling. a vital source of income for Coral Triangle countries which export The rich and unique environmental fisheries products worth over assets of the Coral Triangle underpin US$9 billion each year. the future economic benefits for the region. Not to take care of these These export fisheries, however, resources could mean losing them. In depend heavily on the health of many ways, the choice that leaders of coastal ecosystems, with many the Coral Triangle countries face is species spending the first stages of about sustainable economic growth. their life in mangroves and seagrass Effective action on climate change beds. The destruction of these and the many stresses that threatened coastal ecosystems will have dire crucial coastal ecosystems will consequences for fisheries. safeguard economies and protect the livelihoods of a vast number Climate change may have other of people. That choice should be easy impacts such as changing sea to make. temperature and driving valuable pelagic fishing opportunities out of national waters.” THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Escalating Environmental Challenges

Rapid population growth within the coastal areas of the Coral Triangle has put The threats to healthy coral reefs, from coastal areas. Corals have POLLUTION FROM SHIPPING its precious resources under extreme stress (Figure 9). These stresses mean mangrove forests and seagrass beds also been mined directly for coral Southeast Asia is a major hub that over 40% of the coral reefs and mangroves of the region have disappeared within the Coral Triangle can be rock and lime for cement to provide for shipping traffic, which includes over the last 40 years. These changes have already had huge consequences divided into two broad categories. The building materials to expand cities several mega-ports as well as a for the ability of coastal ecosystems to support people, communities and first set contains ‘local’ threats, which and townships. Mangroves, seagrass complex network of shipping channels. economies. Unfortunately, these same stresses are also growing fast. originate directly from activities within beds, salt marsh and coral reefs have One of the two most important sea the region. Deforestation of mangroves, also been destroyed by dredging and lanes in Southeast Asia passes through destruction of seagrass beds, declining port development. The growth of the Straits of Lombok and Makassar Figure 9. The extent to which human impacts can be detected within the Coral Triangle, from information water quality, pollution, over- urban centres along coastlines has which form part of the Coral Triangle; provided to Google Earth by Halpern et al. (2008). The key to the different colours is shown below exploitation of marine species, sewage led to the increased influx of sewage shipping activities are also growing in discharge, and destructive fishing and garbage into the sea. Coastal sea lanes in Sawu Sea, Arafura Sea, practices are some of the many direct ecosystems like coral reefs need clear Banda Sea, Seram Sea and Maluku impacts that humans have inflicted on and low-nutrient waters to thrive, and Sea. A number of threats arise from the ecosystems of the Coral Triangle. will disappear once coastal waters this intense shipping activity including The second category includes global become clouded with sediment and oil spills, pollution from ports, ballast/ threats from climate change, which laden with nutrients such as nitrogen bilge discharge, as well as waste and have already been addressed. and phosphorus. Sediments reduce garbage disposal. Ships discharging the amount of light falling on coral bilge and ballast water may also Key local threats to coastal and other photosynthetic organisms, release oil, nutrients, chemical ecosystems in the Coral Triangle while elevated nutrients tend to tip the pollutants and invasive species. are as follows: balance away from coral-dominated Impacts arise from groundings and reefs to those dominated by organisms anchor-damage, leading to the physical COASTAL DEVELOPMENT such as seaweeds. Sediment can destruction of coral reefs. Shipping Expansion of urban and agricultural also physically smother coral reefs. activities currently threaten 7% activities has directly and indirectly Seagrass beds are destroyed when of coral reefs in the Coral Triangle affected coastal ecosystems. Land water becomes too turbid or full of and are growing (Figure 11B). reclamation to build human dwellings, nutrients. Overall, about 25% of airports and tourist venues has coral reefs in the Coral Triangle are removed coral reefs and mangroves threatened by coastal development (Figure 11A).

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Figure 10. Distribution and intensity of land-use change throughout Southeast Asia (Source: Burke et al. 2002). THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE The Escalating Environmental Challenges

LAND-BASED RUN-OFF The growth of heavily populated and aquarium markets. Many fish coastal areas (e.g. Napoleon wrasse regions such as those in the species play key ecological roles in and groupers), which are shipped Intact coastlines function as filtration systems for water running into the sea. Philippines and many parts of coastal ecosystems, such as grazing to major cities such as Hong Kong Coral reefs and seagrass thrive along undisturbed coastlines where clear Indonesia has resulted in almost all marine plants and maintaining the and Singapore. The live fish trade water allows light to penetrate and drive the photosynthesis of symbiotic natural forests and landscapes being ecological balance between organisms crosses international boundaries and corals and other coral reef organisms such as giant clams and macro-algae. altered (Figure 10). Coastal water like corals and seaweeds. Other fish circumvents the ability of local people The low nutrient concentrations of these areas discourage phytoplankton quality is of increasing concern in and invertebrate species are critical to control the state of their fish stocks. blooms. The conversion of coastal forests and landscapes for use in agriculture areas such as the Solomon Islands, to maintaining healthy sediments and aquaculture diminishes the ability of coastal areas to retain soil and where unrestrained logging continues. through other ecological roles. Fish Overfishing represents one of the nutrients, which otherwise run off into coastal areas. Road construction and Approximately 21% of the coral reefs populations on many reefs have greatest challenges to the Coral other infrastructure activities in coastal areas can therefore have serious affects of Southeast Asia are threatened by plummeted as results of unsustainable Triangle region. Approximately on adjacent water quality. When coupled with poor tillage practices and the run-off. This figure is higher in the fishing practices and ecosystems 64% of coral reefs are at medium loss of riparian (fringing) vegetation along the banks of rivers and creeks Philippines and parts of Indonesia, have deteriorated as key ecological to high threat from overfishing. flowing into coastal areas, these activities can have devastating effects on where up to 35% of coral reefs are functions have disappeared. The Philippines is the most severe coastal ecosystems. threatened by nutrients and sediments case with over 70% of their coral running off destabilised coastal areas. Fishing pressure has escalated reefs threatened by overfishing in line with population growth, (Figure 11C). Similar although less OVERFISHING and represents one of the most publicized threats from overfishing The coastal ecosystems of Coral significant threats facing coastal exist for seagrass and mangrove Triangle have come under severe ecosystems within the Coral Triangle. forests. In these cases, ecosystems threat from two types of fishing Few countries or coastlines remain shift as ecological functional groups activity. The first involves small-scale unaffected. The over-exploitation of are removed, with consequences for fisheries that may account for as much fish stocks involves a complex set overall coastal ecosystem health. as 40 to 95% of total marine fisheries of threats involving both internal production, as seen in Indonesia and and external pressures, cultural and DESTRUCTIVE FISHING the Philippines respectively. People, economic constraints, and is closely Expanding coastal populations with many disadvantaged and poor, connected to human livelihoods limited financial resources has led to forage daily for fish, invertebrates and poverty. The live fish trade for the proliferation of destructive fishing and seaweeds to eat or sell in local restaurants in major Asian cities practices. Destructive fishing has markets. The second involves is an excellent example. The trade taken a toll on habitats as well as on commercial fisheries which target involves cartels that provide boats non-target species. In addition to the species such as tuna, as well as reef to impoverished people who then impact of anchors and nets on coral fish for the live fish restaurant trade over-harvest large fish from remote reefs from regular fishing and trawling

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activities, there are two main fisheries anaesthetizes the fish, making them behind large numbers of unexploded coral cover and a vastly reduced the targeting of fish during spawning techniques that cause major direct easy to capture. The live fish and shells, which were used as a source reef framework. With the three- aggregations is of increasing damage to coral reefs: using poison aquarium trades both use poisons of explosives for use in fishing. dimensional typography of the reef concern. The cascading impacts of and using explosives. Approximately extensively. The impacts range from Most of the stocks of explosives gone, most of the other organisms removing fish in massive numbers 50% of coral reefs in Southeast Asia non-specific and widespread impacts from WWII have been used up or that normally inhabit coral reefs during these most important and are at risk from destructive fishing on other fish, to direct impact removed, and blast fishers now disappear as well. vulnerable stage in their life cycles practices. The proportions are highest on corals and other organisms. use dynamite from building sites, can have major impacts on the in the Philippines, with 66% of reefs The application of even dilute or potassium nitrate, which is While blast fishing and the use of longevity of fisheries, the health of being threatened by destructive solutions of cyanide will disrupt an artificial fertilizer that can be poisons is less prevalent on the coral reefs and coastal ecosystems. fishing, and Indonesia, where more photosynthesis and cause corals prepared as an explosive using Pacific side of the Coral Triangle, than half of the reefs are threatened to bleach and die, and if applied commercial fuses or blasting caps. (Figure 11D). at higher concentrations will kill There are also reports of small scale Figure 11. Distribution of local threats throughout Southeast Asia. entire communities of corals. The fishers obtaining explosives from (Source: (Burke et al. 2002). Fishing Using Poison full extent of the use of poison for commercial and government sources. A. Coastal development B. Pollution from shipping Fishing using poison has long been fishing is unknown, largely because Blast fishing kills fish by rupturing used throughout Southeast Asia it targets some of the more pristine their internal organs through the by coastal communities. Products and isolated coral reefs where pressure wave that is created by the a., b. , c. and d. extracted from mangroves and other observations are limited or difficult. blast. Once an explosive has been plants are put into the water by the The limited information available set off, fishers enter the water and fisher, impairing or killing the fish on fish poisoning suggests that it collect the stunned and dead fish. prior to collection. At low density is widespread in the Philippines, The ecological costs of blast fishing and under traditional control, poison Malaysia (Sabah) and Indonesia. have been huge in Southeast Asia. fishing is unlikely to have a major A typical one kilogram bomb (often impact on coastal ecosystems. The Fishing Using Explosives devised using explosive materials C. Overfishing D. Destructive fishing use of poisons today has proliferated Fishing using explosives (or blast delivered inside a beer bottle) will across the Coral Triangle, with the fishing) is currently outlawed leave a crater of coral rubble 1-2 m possible exception of the Solomon throughout Southeast Asia. in diameter, which may take 20 to Islands. Modern poison fishers use Despite this, it is regularly used on 30 years to recover. In some regions, sodium or potassium cyanide, or coral reefs in the Coral Triangle, blast fishing is so common that reefs insecticides, delivering the poison to particularly in Indonesia. Blast have been completely destroyed. the fish in plastic squirt bottles that fishing originated after World War Reefs that are bombed regularly are operated by divers. The poison II when the combatant armies left usually exhibit less than 10% THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Conclusion: Urgent Action Now

This report investigated the climate change will lead to These problems are not International leaders have an “Failure to act conclusions of over 300 published regrettable and potentially insurmountable. Effective and important responsibility to invest studies and consulted over 20 experts catastrophic consequences for the early action on greenhouse gas now in actions that will make a to reduce these on different aspects of the future of world. We confirm those perspectives emissions can address the climate major difference to the future of the the Coral Triangle. This information for the Coral Triangle and its people. change problem. Broad commitments Coral Triangle region. In building threats will ultimately was used to explore how this region These looming changes will also throughout the Coral Triangle region these scenarios, it is hoped that the spell out a gloomy might change based on the decisions be amplified by the impact of many will reduce and reverse the decline difference between making effective that we take today. other environmental threats to coastal in the health of coastal ecosystems. decisions (and not) has been made economic and social ecosystems that arise from declining The challenge, however, is to build clear, and that the decisions of our In doing so, the study participants water quality, destructive activities, the international partnerships and take leaders will take us on a new pathway future for the were struck by the urgency over-exploitation and pollution. the bold steps to set the world on a to a better future. Coral Triangle and surrounding the question of climate Failure to act to reduce these threats different pathway. If this is done, then change. There appears to be will ultimately spell out a gloomy the dividends to ecosystems, people its people.” little doubt in the minds of hundreds economic and social future for the and governments will be enormous. of scientists that a failure to act on Coral Triangle and its people .

30: THE CORAL TRIANGLE 31 THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Recommended Reading

• Björk M., Short F., Mcleod, E. and Beer, S. (2008). Managing Seagrasses for Resilience to Climate Change. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. 56pp.

• Bruno JF, Selig ER (2007) Regional decline of coral cover in the Indo-Pacific: Timing, extent, and subregional comparisons. PLoS ONE 2:e711

• Burke L, Selig L, Spalding M (2002) Reefs at Risk in Southeast Asia. World Resources Institute, Washington DC

• Green AL, Mous PJ (2008) Delineating the Coral Triangle, its Ecoregions and Functional Seascapes. Version 5.0. TNC Coral Triangle Program Report 1/08. 44 pp.

• Green S, Meneses A, White A, Kilarski S, Christie P (2008) MPA Networks in the Coral Triangle: Development and Lessons. TNC, WWF, CI, WCS and the United States Agency for International Development, Cebu City, Philippines. 106 p.

• Halpern BS, Walbridge S, Selkoe KA, et al. (2008) A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science 319:948-952

• Hoegh-Guldberg O, Mumby PJ, Hooten AJ, et al. (2007) Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318:1737-42

• Hughes TP, Rodrigues MJ, Bellwood DR, et al. (2007) Phase shifts, herbivory, and the resilience of coral reefs to climate change. Current Biology 17:360-5

• IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Team CW, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A (eds). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland 104

• Marshall P, Schuttenberg H (2007) Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Australia.

• McLeod, Elizabeth and Salm, Rodney V. (2006). Managing Mangroves for Resilience to Climate Change. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. 64pp.

• Salm R, Clark J, Siirila E (2000) Marine and coastal protected areas: a guide for planners and managers. The World Conservation Union (IUCN)

• Center for Ocean Solutions. (2009). Pacific Ocean Synthesis: Scientific Literature Review of Coastal and Ocean Threats, Impacts, and Solutions. The Woods Center for the Environment, Stanford University. California.

• Veron JEN (2009) Coral Geographic: a spatial database; http://www.coralreefresearch.org/html/crr_cg.htm

32: THE CORAL TRIANGLE 33 Authors and Expert Reviewers

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is Director, Veron is the author of 100 scientific articles, Restoration and Remediation Working Java Island coastal area, helping related region, including Melanesia. Since the Centre for Marine Studies, at The University including 14 books and monographs. Group. He has 140 technical publications to government agencies as well as other marine beginning of the 1990s he has been involved of Queensland, and Deputy Director of the He is former Chief Scientist of the Australian his credit and continues to publish actively. and fisheries related NGOs. in international development projects both ARC Centre for Excellence for Coral Reef Institute of Marine Science. He has been as technical advisor and team leader. He has Studies (www.coralcoe.org.au). Ove leads the recipient of the Darwin Medal, the Silver Dr Janice Lough is a Senior Principal Dr Lara Hansen has directed research been Team Leader for long-term projects an active research group of more than Jubilee Pin of the Australian Marine Sciences Research Scientist at the Australian Institute on the biological effects of global change in the Republic of Maldives and Timor 25 researchers (www.coralreefecosystems. Association, the Australasian Science Prize, of Marine Science where she leads the (including UV-B and climate change) since Leste undertaking strategic environmental org), is currently Queensland Smart State the Whitley Medal and received special Responding to Climate Change Research 1990. Her primary focus is the redesign assessments and developing coastal Premier’s Fellow and has published over mention in the Eureka Awards. Team and is also a partner investigator with of conservation strategies to incorporate management plans. Geoff currently works 140 scientific papers on coral reefs and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Reef responses to climate change. She is for the Centre for Marine Studies at The environmental change. Ove is a member Dr Alison Green is Senior Marine Scientist Studies. Her current research focuses on the currently engaged in developing the field of University of Queensland and is involved in of the Royal Society (London) working group with The Nature Conservancy’s Asia Pacific possible impacts of a changing climate and adaptation, building capacity and achieving work in Solomon Islands and Cook Islands on ocean acidification and chairs the Global Conservation Region, and is the strategy lead increasing CO2 on coral reef ecosystems and implementation through an organisation she as a coastal catchment technical advisor. Environment Facility/World Bank Coral Reef for establishing resilient networks of marine extracting pre-instrumental histories of reef co-founded in 2008, EcoAdapt. Recognition He is also the coordinator and key presenter Targeted Research and Capacity Building protected areas in the Conservancy’s Coral climates and environments from the annual for her research on the biological effects of the Coastal Resource Management short for Management Program (CRTR) Working Triangle Program. Her role is to co-ordinate records contained in long-lived massive of stresses combined with global change course offered by the Centre for Marine Group on Coral Bleaching and related high priority research and provide scientific corals. She has published over 100 scientific is exemplified by being a Switzer Studies at the University of Queensland ecological impacts (www.gefcoral.org). advice for The Nature Conservancy’s Coral articles in these and related areas. Environmental Fellow in 1995 and an EPA each year. Triangle Program, particularly in the fields Bronze Medalist in 2002. Dr Hansen was the He won a Eureka Prize in 1999 and runs Melanie King is the Executive Officer for the popular blog: www.climateshifts.org. of coral reef ecology, biodiversity, Chief Climate Change Scientist for WWF- Dr C. Mark Eakin is the Coordinator monitoring and measuring success, and the Global Environment Facility/World Bank US, leading their Impacts and Adaptations of the Coral Reef Watch program of the Hans Hoegh-Guldberg runs Economic the design and implementation of resilient Coral Reef Targeted Research and Capacity program, from 2001 to 2008. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Strategies, a company he founded in 1984. networks of marine protected areas (MPAs). Building for Management (CRTR) Program Administration (NOAA), which uses satellite He specialises in applied ecological and Recently, she led the scientific design of a based at The University of Queensland, Dr Josh Cinner is a researcher at the ARC data to observe environmental changes that cultural economics, and has produced a large resilient network of MPAs in Kimbe Bay, and has been involved in the administrative Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies threaten the health of corals and coral reef number of studies in the music, literature Papua New Guinea, and is currently involved and project management fields for 20 years. and he explores how socio-economic factors ecosystems. His background is in coral and other cultural sectors. He is on the in designing several MPA networks in the Her experience working on natural resource influence the ways in which people use, reef ecology, reef carbonate budgets, and board of the Music Council of Australia and Coral Triangle. She has also led several management projects includes Australia, perceive, and govern natural resources, paleoclimatology, currently focusing on edits its knowledge base. Twelve years ago rapid ecological assessments in Indonesia, Cook Islands, Maldives, Philippines, Mexico with a specific focus on coral reef social- the influence of climate change and ocean he became involved in scenario planning Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, and Zanzibar. During this time she has ecological systems. He often works closely acidification on coral reefs. He has twice (Indonesia) and shortly thereafter in the and played a lead role in delineating the developed a sound knowledge of country with ecologists on interdisciplinary research received the Bronze Medal from the economics of coral reefs and climate change. Coral Triangle. and donor policies and management actions topics such as defining the socio-economic US Department of Commerce for his work He co-authored “Pacific in Peril” (2000) regarding coastal resources, and recently factors that drive successful conservation, on climate variability and change. and “The Implications of Climate Change Professor Ed Gomez is a world renowned completed her Masters in Governance understanding resilience and thresholds for Australia’s Great Barrier Reef” (2004). coral reef biologist from the University and Public Policy, focusing upon policy, in coral reef social-ecological systems, Tyler Christensen is a coral reef scientist, He is currently completing a two-year of the Philippines where he has maintained institutional arrangements and organisational examining and operationalising vulnerability a contractor with I.M. Systems Group climate change project on the Florida an active research laboratory and academic structures in Small Island States. to environmental change, and examining the at NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch program. Keys for NOAA. group. He currently serves as the Coordinator applicability of Western conservation models Her focus is on international programs: of the Centre of Excellence for the Dr Ambariyanto is a marine scientist in developing countries. developing satellite data products for global Professor J. E. N. (Charlie) Veron is best Philippines and Southeast Asia under the at Diponegoro University, Semarang, coral reef managers, improving product known as the author of the three volume Global Environment Facility/World Bank Indonesia. His research interest is mainly Geoff Dews is an Adjunct Senior Lecturer delivery, and building capacity for the use publication - Corals of the World. He is also Coral Reef Targeted Research and Capacity on marine endangered species, and coral at the Centre for Marine Studies, The of NOAA’s satellite data. She is a member the senior author of the major electronic Building for Management Program, where reef and mangroves rehabilitation and University of Queensland. Geoff is a of the GEF/World Bank CRTR Program’s products Coral ID and Coral Geographic. he also serves as a Co-Chair of the CRTR conservation. He has been working closely marine resource specialist with extensive Remote Sensing Working Group. with coastal communities along the consulting experience in the Asia-Pacific THE CORAL TRIANGLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Authors and Expert Reviewers

Dr Garry Russ is a Professor of marine collection activities focused on aspects EXPERT REVIEWERS Station), the Monterey Bay Aquarium, between the GEF, the World Bank, the science at James Cook University, and of U.S. marine ecosystems. and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research University of Queensland and some 40 a program leader at the ARC Centre Professor Angel Alcala is currently the Institute (MBARI). The Centre’s mission research institutions world-wide to support of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies. Dr Alexander Tewfik works at the director of the Commission on Higher is to elevate the impact of the natural, science based management of coral reefs His research interests are use of no-take WorldFish Center on the implementation Education-Silliman Zonal Research Center, physical and social sciences on ocean through the Coral Reef Targeted Research marine reserves as fisheries-management of practical and participatory systems for as well as the director of the Silliman policy by integrating cutting-edge science and Capacity Building for Management tools and coral reef fisheries. He has an the diagnosis, restoration and adaptive University Angelo King Center for and technology with economic, social, Program. In addition to her work on extensive international reputation and has management of coastal habitats, resources Resources and Environmental Management, and political expertise to develop practical ecosystem based-adaptation to climate published over 150 peer-reviewed papers and livelihoods in Indonesia and the in the Philippines. Dr Alcala has produced solutions to the major challenges facing the change, she is part of an international on fisheries, conservation and coral reefs, Solomon Islands. Prior to WorldFish, more than 60 scientific papers on marine oceans. Meg is a member of the Stanford working group on valuation of marine specialising in southeast Asian and western he spent more than 10 years conducting issues and has presented at numerous Law School faculty where she directs the ecosystem services and leads the Bank’s Pacific countries. applied ecological research in coastal international conferences. Dr Alcala has Environmental and Natural Resources work on integrated coastal management systems throughout the Caribbean and more than thirty years of experience in Law and Policy program. Her teaching and coral reefs and climate change. Ms Heidi Schuttenberg is a PhD student Central America. He has published a tropical marine resource conservation and and scholarship is at the interface of law, at James Cook University where she number of peer-reviewed papers on coral reef research. The author of numerous science and policy, presently focusing on Dr John Cordell is an environmental specialises in how to understand and small-scale invertebrate fisheries, marine papers, Professor Alcala has focused on governance of coupled coastal and marine anthropologist specializing in coastal strengthen effective coral reef governance managed areas, impacts of disturbance marine reserves (particularly their effect ecosystems and human communities. management. He currently operates a in relationship to the better management and habitat restoration. on the fishery production of surrounding non-profit research center in Berkeley, of coastal environments and ecosystems. areas), and the ecology and mariculture of Professor Suharsono Prof. Dr. Suharsono California, USA, The Ethnographic Dr Jamie Oliver has worked for the She was co-author on the book “A Reef molluscan and fish species. He regularly is Director of Research Centre for Institute. Ethnographic is dedicated to WorldFish Center since 2000, first as senior Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching” Oceanography in Indonesia Institute assisting tropical small-scale, artisanal scientist for coral reef projects and then as works local communities and local and over 10 articles on issues related to Director of Science Coordination. He is also governments in the Philippines on coastal of Sciences (LIPI). He was studied in fishing, communities sustain their culturally- governments, marine conservation and the Secretary for the WorldFish Board of resource management. Newcastle University UK in ecology coral based livelihoods. Studying at Stanford coral reefs. reef. He is a senior researcher in the area University, and teaching at University Trustees and the Chair of the International Dr Lauretta Burke is a Senior Associate Coral Reef Action Network Steering of coral reef ecosystems and took the lead of California Berkeley, University of Dr Michael Abbey is responsible for in the People and Ecosystems Program Committee. Prior to WorldFish, he was the of Coral Reefs Rehabilitation and Queensland, and University of Sao Paulo assessing, developing and managing Director of Information Support at the Great of the World Resources Institute (WRI). Management Program (COREMAP) to in Brazil, Cordell also engaged in extensive international fisheries collaboration between Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and a She is a geographer and spatial modeller, monitoring status of coral communities fieldwork and writing about fishing societies the United States National Oceanic and senior scientist at the Australian Institute who specializes in providing tools and in Indonesia. Suharsono is a member of in Bahia, Brazil and in Torres Strait. Atmospheric Administration Fisheries and of Marine Science. He has published information to guide sustainable resource The International Society for Reef Studies the Asia-Pacific region. He is the NOAA extensively in the area of climate change management. Lauretta leads the “Reefs (ISRS) and as Indonesian Focal point ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Fisheries liaison to the Coral Triangle and coral reefs and will help coordinate at Risk” project series (was lead author on Coral Working Group-CITES and Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and his Initiative and the Coral Reef Conservation input from ReefBase. on “Reefs at Risk SE Asia”), evaluating International Coral Reef Initiative. co-authors would like to thank Program - International Working Group. threats to the world’s coral reefs, as well Richard Leck (Task leader, Eileen L. Peñaflor is a PhD student at the as WRI’s efforts on economic valuation of Dr Marea Hatziolos is a marine ecologist Dr Rosemary A. Kosaka works as an WWF-Australia) Kate Newman Marine Science Institute, University of the coastal resources. Prior to joining WRI, she and a senior specialist in coastal and economist in the Office of Science and Philippines. She is also a part of the World (WWF-USA), Francis Areki analysed the potential impact of climate marine management in the Environment Technology at the United States National Bank/GEF Coral Reef Targeted Research (WWF-South Pacific), Bronwen Golder change on fisheries, wetlands and biological Department of the World Bank. Her work Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Capacity Building for Management (WWF-International), Lya Anggraini diversity for U.S. EPA’s Global Climate focuses on improving policies and practices (NOAA) and is editor of a new annual Program - Remote Sensing Working Group. (WWF-Indonesia) and Lida Pet-Soude Change Program. for sustainable use of marine resources and statistical series reporting economic She’s currently working on her dissertation (WWF-Coral Triangle Leader) investigating the surface warming and conserving marine biodiversity through for stimulating discussion and information about domestic fishing Dr Margaret “Meg” Caldwell, JD is the an ecosystem approach to development activities and fishing-related industries. thermal stress patterns in the Coral Triangle. Executive Director of the Center for Ocean support during this study. See Her interest is mainly on the use of satellite- planning and management. She is the She also contributes to ongoing and Solutions, a collaboration between Stanford acknowledgements for the main derived data for coastal and ocean studies. team leader for a global partnership emerging economics research and data University (including Hopkins Marine study at www.panda.org/coraltriangle.

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