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Revising the Status Quo of Revisionism, Grand Strategy, and International Order

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Revising the Status Quo of Revisionism, Grand Strategy, and International Order Florida International University FIU Digital Commons FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations University Graduate School 3-19-2019 Revising the Status Quo of Revisionism, Grand Strategy, and International Order Onur Erpul Florida International University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Erpul, Onur, "Revising the Status Quo of Revisionism, Grand Strategy, and International Order" (2019). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 4044. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/4044 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the University Graduate School at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida REVISING THE STATUS QUO OF REVISIONISM, GRAND STRATEGY, AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS by Onur Erpul 2019 To: Dean John F. Stack, Jr. Stephen J. Green School of International and Public Affairs This dissertation, written by Onur Erpul, and entitled Revising the Status Quo of Revisionism, Grand Strategy, and International Order, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment. We have read this dissertation and recommend that it be approved. Ronald W. Cox John Oates Rebecca Friedman Félix E. Martín, Major Professor Date of Defense: March 19, 2019 The dissertation of Onur Erpul is approved. Dean John F. Stack, Jr. Stephen J. Green School of International and Public Affairs Andrés G. Gil Vice President for Research and Economic Development and Dean of the University Graduate School Florida International University, 2019 ii © Copyright 2019 by Onur Erpul All rights reserved. iii DEDICATION To my grandfather, Seyfi Taşhan iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I found that at times dissertation writing can be herculean task that isolates the researcher, alienating him from friends and loved ones. Yet, no scholarly endeavor can be accomplished alone. In my case, I had the good fortune of having a loving and supportive family, and friends. My family probably bore the brunt of this dissertation because it has constantly delayed my return home. Additionally, I enjoyed the generous circumstances offered to me by the Fulbright Program and FIU. I was also fortunate enough to work with people who were supremely patient with me and generous with what I discovered to be the most important resource one could ever commit: time. The following nomenclatura hardly does justice to all the people who helped me during my graduate studies and while I wrote the present dissertation. I would not have been able to undertake this ambitious project in the first place without the institutional support and funding I received from my department, SIPA, UGS, and other funding sources like the GPSC and the Anita and Morris Broad Fellowship, all of which helped to fund research for this project. I should also say something about my adoptive family in SIPA. Adam, Ahmed, Cecil, Daniela, Christine, Defne, Fiacre, Gala, Hunter, Karol, Lera, Linea, Maria, Mazaher, Matt Felice, Melisa, Melissa, Nevena, Robert, Saeed, Siremorn, Suat, TJ, Umer, Vera, Vierelina, and Yuanyuan. My friends back home in Turkey also commiserated in this research while I unkindly pitched my ideas to many of them as a topic of conversation. I therefore thank Alper, Arda, Emre Baran, Emre Ekizoğlu, Eralp, Ezgi, Fırat, Levent, Metehan, Nazire, Yunus, Selçuk, Sercan, and Serkan. v Bibek and Zenel: I hope to match their prodigious publishing record one day. Mike Wartenbe is one of the smartest people I know, and I am hard-pressed to think of a better source for delightful intellectual conversation. Jessy and I always seem to be on the same path together. I will never forget how we prepared together for comps, nor will I ever forget our many conversations about Middle Eastern politics over drinks. Diego, meanwhile, is one of the most hardworking and analytical people I had pleasure of meeting and have always been impressed by the energy he brought into whatever project we undertook together. Kevin Modlin, my friend from the Commonwealth of Kentucky, has been integral to my socialization into American culture. Yang Gyu always lightens our day with his scholarly scrutiny and fun disposition. My Committee Members placed me on the path to success. Ronald Cox’s U.S. Foreign Policy class gave me the right tools to think about all the possible ways to approach a vast subject like foreign policy and presented me with the major challenge of explicating a theory of elites and decision making. He encouraged me about the value of my intended contribution to the literature. John Oates helped by challenging my theoretical assumptions and methodological choices. Apart from being very helpful he also expanded my theoretical horizons by alerting me to relevant literature. Rebecca Friedman very generously accepted to be a part of this project and for encouraging me to think about the social and cultural context of decision-making. Félix Martín is the best dissertation adviser, mentor, and friend anyone could ever ask for. He offered me the freedom to pursue my dissertation in the way I thought would be best, but always helped to ground my thoughts, all the while guiding me through the writing process. Beyond the dissertation, I am grateful for everything he has taught me and for everything he has done for my academic success. vi Zeynep always made me insecure about my prediliction for mainstream IR theories, but she was always nice about it. I want to thank Dilara Hekimci, who joined our PIR family belatedly. She is an absolute delight and I greatly value her friendship. Another friend and co-author I want to thank is Orçun Selçuk, who has been a great friend from day one as we have commiserated in classes and life. I have done my best to emulate in my own research their principled commitment to good research and methodological rigor. My friend Nicolas Beckmann is sometimes a foil to my half-baked ideas, but always a source of constructive criticism and encouragement. In the precious time spared from research and other responsibilities, he encouraged me pursue the things that contributed to my psychological wellbeing, which ultimately helped me to muster the motivation to keep working. I am grateful, also, to another towering pillar of intellect: Nicolás Terradas. He is not only a great friend, but he showed me the ropes of surviving graduate school, inspiring many research ideas along the way. This very project owes its existence to one of our lengthy conversations many months ago. Finally, I want to thank Sophia Younes. I do not believe that any permutation of words could possibly communicate how appreciative I am of you. You helped to keep me focused on my research even while struggling with your own onerous duties. You saw me at my best, and worst, and you patiently helped me see this project through. From the amalgamation of these relationships, influences, experiences, and conditions is this research thus rendered. All faults with this dissertation are my own. Onur Erpul This dissertation was written in Sweetwater, FL and Ankara February 1, 2019 vii ABSTRACT OF DISSERTATION REVISING THE STATUS QUO OF REVISIONISM, GRAND STRATEGY, AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER by Onur Erpul Florida International University, 2019 Miami, Florida Professor Félix E. Martín, Major Professor This dissertation examines a type of variance in state behavior pertaining to international conflict and cooperation. Rather than confining this discussion to a binary understanding of state behavior, between revisionism and status-quo seeking, it endeavors to provide a nuanced discussion of the type of grand-strategic orientations states undertake in pursuit of their interests. It poses the question, “under what circumstances do states aspire to uphold, seek to reform, or challenge international order?” In doing so, the study helps to understanding the gamut of behaviors that purportedly satisfied or revisionist states display. System-level material opportunities that are filtered by elite-preferences and beliefs about international order at the unit-level account for the type of grand strategies states will adopt. Through congruency testing, the dissertation identifies and explains order- conforming, order-reforming, order-retrenching, and order-challenging grand strategies. In this context, the dissertation addresses debates within Structural Realism on status-quo and revisionist states as well as grand strategy formation to produce an eclectic mid-range viii theory of state behavior. The hypotheses generated by this theoretical undertaking are tested through longitudinal, comparative case study examinations of U.S. and Chinese grand strategies in the post-Cold War period. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PROJECT......................................................................................................... 9 CASE SELECTION.................................................................................................................................. 14 ORGANIZATION O F THE STUDY .......................................................................................................
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