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Tan Chong Motor (TCM MK) Neutral (Maintained) Malaysia Company Update 24 June 2020 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Tan Chong Motor (TCM MK) Neutral (Maintained) Banking On Nissan’s New Almera Target Price (Return): MYR1.00 (-8%) Price: MYR1.09 Market Cap: USD166m Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 0.10m/0.02m NEUTRAL, MYR1.00 TP, 8% downside. The decline in Tan Chong Motor’s Analyst 1Q20 sales was mainly due to COVID-19. Demand rose after the sales tax exemption was announced, but the company will need more time to fully gauge Muhammad Afif Bin Zulkaplly the impact of the initiative. Meanwhile, its new MG brand distribution arm in +603 9280 8883 Vietnam could start to contribute to group numbers as early as 2H20. Nissan’s [email protected] Sylphy C-segment sedan and Kicks B-segment SUV remain in the pipeline, but the timeline of these launches is unclear. Blame the pandemic. Management attributed the drop in 1Q20 sales and profitability to weak consumer sentiment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Its Malaysia sales plunged 46% YoY and 51% QoQ, while Indochina sales fell 40% YoY and 19% QoQ. Its Vietnam sales were the most affected (Figures 1 Share Performance (%) and 2). Sales are likely to worsen further in 2Q20, as its Malaysian operation YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m was affected by the implementation of the Movement Control Order, while Vietnam had a nationwide lockdown in April. Absolute (18.1) 2.8 9.0 (16.8) (27.3) On consumer reception to the sales tax exemption, management saw an Relative (13.2) (2.4) (11.0) (10.4) (17.1) uptick in demand after the announcement. However, it is too early to fully 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 1.00 – 1.51 gauge the impact. Consumers are in no hurry, and could postpone purchases to the year-end. Earnings may improve in 2H20, however, aided by the tax Tan Chong Motor (TCM MK) Price Close exemption – but the impact to TCM will likely be more muted compared to Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) peers due to its aging model line-up, in our view. 1.6 110 Not much being shared on the new Almera. The new Nissan Almera is set 1.5 105 to be launched in 2H20 but there were no specific dates or other details shared 1.4 100 by management. However, some automotive websites have reported sightings 1.3 95 of Almera test mules undergoing local trials. There are no plans to introduce 1.2 90 the model in Vietnam for now, as the priority is on the local launch. No 1.1 85 impairment on old inventory is expected, when the new model is launched. 1.0 80 MG brand could be key to Vietnam turnaround. Management revealed that 0.9 75 the new revenue stream of distributing MG’s CBU models in Vietnam could Jul-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-19 Apr-20 Jun-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Nov-19 Dec-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Sep-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 May-20 start contributing to group numbers by 2H20. The group is also exploring the May-20 possibility of local assembly, which would improve the utilisation rate at its Source: Bloomberg Danang plant. Underutilisation of the plant has been dragging down its Vietnam unit’s profitability since inception, and TCM has been exploring options like contract assembly, to ramp up production levels. Key risks and forecasts. No change to our forecasts. Weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment and unfavourable FX trends are the main downside risks. Sales may improve in 2H20 but are not likely to recover to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. The introduction of the Almera should help to lift TCM’s FY21F earnings. However, management was unable to offer any clarity on the potential launch of the Sylphy and Kicks models. As the stock is trading at just 0.2x P/BV (-1.5SD from its 5-year average), we believe its market value is at a trough, and any downside should be limited. Forecasts and Valuation Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total turnover (MYRm) 4,858 4,172 3,221 3,928 4,074 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 126 49 (30) 63 64 Recurring net profit growth (%) - (61.2) (160.7) - 2.9 Recurring P/E (x) 5.66 14.52 na 11.29 10.98 P/B (x) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 P/CF (x) 1.41 23.31 1.79 na 6.88 Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 3.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.14 6.11 7.88 5.09 4.83 Return on average equity (%) 2.7 1.3 (1.0) 2.1 2.1 InterestNet debt cover to equity (x) (%) 3.17 35.5 2.15 39.5 0.61 26.9 2.07 29.8 2.07 27.6 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Tan Chong Motor Malaysia Company Update 24 June 2020 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Financial Exhibits Asia Financial summary (MYR) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Malaysia Recurring EPS 0.19 0.08 - 0.05 0.10 0.10 Consumer Cyclical DPS 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 Tan Chong Motor BVPS 4.35 4.66 4.60 4.67 4.75 TCM MK Return on average equity (%) 2.7 1.3 (1.0) 2.1 2.1 Neutral Valuation metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Valuation basis Recurring P/E (x) 5.66 14.52 na 11.29 10.98 FY20F 11x P/E P/B (x) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 FCF Yield (%) 60.8 (37.6) 44.5 (24.5) (2.5) Key drivers Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 3.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 i. Increase in consumer spending; EV/EBITDA (x) 5.14 6.11 7.88 5.09 4.83 ii. Long-term potential from Indo-China operations EV/EBIT (x) 7.41 11.06 30.63 9.34 8.82 Key risks Income statement (MYRm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F i. Weaker MYR; Total turnover 4,858 4,172 3,221 3,928 4,074 ii. Lack of competitive new models; Gross profit 703 649 523 655 684 iii. Weaker economic growth EBITDA 327 307 188 313 320 Depreciation and amortisation (100) (137) (140) (142) (145) Company Profile Operating profit 227 170 48 171 175 Tan Chong owns and operates the distribution Net interest (49) (58) (56) (51) (52) franchise for Nissan vehicles in Malaysia. This includes Pre-tax profit 154 109 (5) 123 126 assembly, sales and distribution, after-sales as well as Taxation (76) (68) (20) (55) (57) financial products. Its assembly division also undertakes third-party assembly work for Subaru and Reported net profit 76 38 (30) 63 64 Recurring net profit 126 49 (30) 63 64 Mitsubishi vehicles. Tan Chong also operates the Nissan vehicle distribution franchise in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. Cash flow (MYRm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Change in w orking capital 215 (120) 385 (236) (49) Cash flow from operations 505 30 394 (53) 103 Capex (72) (297) (80) (120) (120) Cash flow from investing activities (47) (158) (57) (88) (87) Dividends paid (20) (26) (13) (13) (13) Cash flow from financing activities (276) 10 187 87 87 Cash at beginning of period 318 522 408 933 879 Net change in cash 181 (118) 524 (54) 102 Ending balance cash 499 404 932 879 981 Balance sheet (MYRm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total cash and equivalents 522 408 933 879 981 Tangible fixed assets 2,024 2,468 2,010 2,048 2,083 Total investments 58 62 62 62 62 Total assets 5,475 5,830 5,360 5,540 5,662 Short-term debt 1,024 1,097 1,232 1,282 1,332 Total long-term debt 499 499 499 499 499 Total liabilities 2,656 2,820 2,388 2,514 2,579 Total equity 2,819 3,010 2,972 3,026 3,083 Total liabilities & equity 5,475 5,830 5,360 5,540 5,662 Key metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Revenue grow th (%) 11.9 (14.1) (22.8) 22.0 3.7 Recurrent EPS grow th (%) 0.0 (61.0) (160.9) 0.0 2.9 Gross margin (%) 14.5 15.6 16.2 16.7 16.8 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 6.7 7.4 5.8 8.0 7.9 Net profit margin (%) 1.6 0.9 (0.9) 1.6 1.6 Dividend payout ratio (%) 34.2 67.9 (44.1) 20.9 20.3 Capex/sales (%) 1.5 7.1 2.5 3.1 2.9 Interest cover (x) 3.17 2.15 0.61 2.07 2.07 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Tan Chong Motor Malaysia Company Update 24 June 2020 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Figure 1: Malaysia – sales performance Figure 2: Indochina – sales performance Source: Company data Source: Company data Figure 3: USD/MYR trend and commentary from Tan Chong Motor Source: Company data Figure 4: Forecast assumptions FYE Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Nissan unit sales 27,154 28,610 21,239 12,200 18,750 19,900 Total unit sales 32,746 35,119 27,048 17,450 24,400 25,750 Forex (JPY100/MYR) 3.85 3.65 3.80 3.92 3.90 3.90 Forex (USD/MYR) 4.30 4.04 4.15 4.28 4.25 4.25 Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Tan Chong Motor Malaysia Company Update 24 June 2020 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Recommendation Chart Date Recommendation Target Price Price Price Close 2020-06-21 Neutral 1.00 1.10 3.3 Recommendations & Target Price 2019-11-27 Buy 1.58 1.33 na 2.00 2.00 1.85 1.58 1.79 1.79 1.00 1.69 1.69 2019-08-21 Buy 1.85 1.48 2.8 1.75 1.75 2019-05-15 Buy 2.00 1.60 2018-12-18 Buy 1.79 1.39 2.3 2018-08-15 Neutral 1.75 1.69 2018-02-08 Neutral 1.69 1.68 1.8 Source: RHB, Bloomberg 1.3 0.8 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Jun-15 Sep-16 Jan-18 Apr-19 Source: RHB, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 4 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, RHB Guide to Investment Ratings performance or achievement to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievement, expressed or implied by such forward-looking Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months statements.
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