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Tan Chong Motors: Interesting Short Tenor MYR Bond Investment Idea at 5.935% YTM

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Tan Chong Motors: Interesting Short Tenor MYR Bond Investment Idea at 5.935% YTM Tan Chong Motors: Interesting Short Tenor MYR Bond Investment Idea at 5.935% YTM Issues Maturity Currency Amount Issued Ratings (RAM) TCMH 4.5% 22Nov2019 (MYR) 22/11/2019 MYR RM 250 Million A1 TCMH 4.7% 24Nov2021 (MYR) 24/11/2021 MYR RM 500 Million A1 In this article, we will explain the reasons why we think TCMH 4.5% 22Nov2019 (MYR) is an interesting investment idea in the MYR bond space. Figure 1: Edaran Tan Chong Motor's 3S centre in Kuching. Source: paultan.org Company Overview Tan Chong Motors Holdings Berhad (TCH) is listed on Bursa Malaysia with a market capitalization of RM 1.21 billion as of 9 April 2018. It is a conglomerate involved in a myriad of business activities locally and abroad; from assembly to marketing of motor vehicles and automotive parts manufacturing to property development. TCH derives most of its revenue from its automobile division. The company is the franchise holder and exclusive distributor of Nissan passenger and light commercial vehicles, as well as Renault vehicles in Malaysia. TCH’s vehicles sales enjoyed a market share of 4.7% of the total industry volume in 2017, according to data from the Malaysian Automotive Association (Chart 1 and Chart 2). Chart 1: TCH makes up 4.7% of the car sales market share in 2017 Malaysia car sales market share in 2017 (%) Perodua 16.4 Toyota 4.7 35.5 Honda Proton 12.3 Nissan Others 12.1 19 Source: Malaysian Automotive Association, iFAST compilations. Data as of 31 Dec 2017 Chart 2: Nissan’s tumbling market share in the past 3 years Market Share Number of Vehicle Sold 8.00% 47,235 50,000 40,706 7.00% 45,000 40,000 6.00% 35,000 27,154 5.00% 30,000 4.00% 25,000 7.10% 7% 4.70% 3.00% 20,000 15,000 2.00% 10,000 1.00% 5,000 0.00% 0 2015 2016 2017 Source: Malaysian Automotive Association, iFAST compilations. Data as of 31 Dec 2017 New Model Launches Starting from 2H18 TCH’s market share have been deteriorating in the past 2 years, mainly due to a freeze in new model launches since 2016 coupled with intense competition from other car makers. In addition, the current car model line-up of TCH entails a large vacuum in the compact sport utility vehicle (SUV) segment where the Honda HRV and Mazda CX3 have been thriving. In order to address its sluggish sales performance, TCH targets to launch several new models from 2H18 onwards. The upcoming launches include an entirely new model of B-segment compact SUV – Nissan Kicks – to regain its lost ground in the SUV segment. The new Nissan Kicks is estimated to price similarly with its same segment rivals (Honda HRV and Mazda CX3). Other models soon to be launched are the second-generation Nissan Leaf and the fifth-generation Nissan Serena Hybrid. Figure 2 All New Nissan Kicks. Source: paultan.org Although the aforementioned new models may not be volume-driven models as compared to TCH’s bestselling models such as the Nissan Almera and the Nissan X-trail, we believe TCH’s lacklustre sales performance in the past 2 years should turn around, considering the injection of much needed excitement to its Nissan model line-up, which has remained unchanged for a good while. Indochina Operations Recording Superb Growth Foreseeing an intense competition and a slowing market growth in the Malaysian automotive market over long run, TCH has been expanding its operation in the Indochina region (Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia) since 2009. Its Indochina car sales improved by 34% y-o-y from 5,168 units in FY16 to 6,913 units in FY17. TCH’s management is expecting the region to achieve meaningful growth in the near term as these countries are moving further up the value chain from an agricultural-based economy to an industrial-based economy. Given the huge combined population of about 168 million (according to World Bank data), low car ownership of 71 per 1000 inhabitants (according to World Bank data) and relatively low total industry volume in the entire Indochina region (Chart 3), the management is targeting to increase revenue contribution from the Indochina markets to 50% from the current level of 30%. Looking at Chart 3, TCH’s target seems realistic to us as motor vehicle sales in the region have seen fast growth in the past 5 years. Chart 3: Indochina region’s motor vehicles sales have expanded more than 150% from 2013 to 2017 Motor Vehicles Sales from 2013 to 2017 2017 274,671 576,635 2016 292,188 580,124 2015 231,767 666,674 2014 154,188 666,465 2013 95,853 655,793 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Indochina Malaysia Source: Asean Automotive Association, Census and Economic Information Center, iFAST compilations. Data as of 31 December 2017 Strengthening MYR Cushions Cost Pressure; Paring Down Inventory Progressively TCH has 85% of its import costs in USD, while the remaining costs are in Japanese Yen. According to TCH’s annual report 2016, assuming variables like interest rate and market conditions remained constant, the company stated that a simulated 5% weakening in the USD against MYR will be translated into post tax profit of RM 7.8 million in its currency sensitivity analysis. With its huge exposure to USD, we believe the company will face lesser cost pressure on the back of stronger MYR now (Chart 4). Chart 4: Strengthening MYR against USD USD/MYR Exchange Rate 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4 3.9 3.8 Jul-17 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jun-17 Oct-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-17 Mar-18 May-17 Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations. Data as of 16 April 2018 On the other hand, the management has expressed their intention to continue paring down its inventory to RM 1 billion mark in FY18. The company had been working hard on this by pausing new models launches and launching aggressive marketing activities last year as we see the inventory level reduced from RM 1.8 billion as of December 2016 to RM 1.2 billion as of December 2017. The inventory clearance leads to a cash inflow of RM 563 million in FY17. As the company was hurt by the higher purchasing costs in previous years due to a weakening MYR, we are comfortable with the company’s strategy on paring down the current inventory which benchmarked at higher USD/MYR rate previously. Therefore, TCH can lock its new inventory exposure to a more favourable current exchange rate. The initiative should also free up working capital and reduce finance costs. Sizeable Unpledged Asset; Cash Flow Positive Despite Loss Making in the Past 2 years Although TCH recorded a net loss of RM 96 million in FY17, if we exclude non-cash items such as depreciation and amortization (RM114 million in FY17), the company’s reported EBITDA was positive at RM114 million. In addition, the company’s debt servicing ratio (EBITDA/cash interest paid) rose from 1.79 times in FY16 to 2.18 times in FY17. On the balance sheet, the company has enhanced its liquidity position as cash and cash equivalents as well as other investments increased significantly from RM 230 million in FY16 to RM462 million in FY17. As of 31 December 2017, TCH’s total borrowings level stood at RM 1.77 billion, and RM 1 billion of them are repayable within one year. Currently, TCH has a net gearing ratio (net debt/equity) of 47.30%, improving moderately from 55.05% in FY16. We think that short-term refinancing risk is mitigated by TCH’s established position in the domestic automobile industry (it has consistently ranked third in terms of sales over the past decade), sizeable asset base (total assets of RM 5.4 billion) and significant unencumbered assets (TCH has no secured debt). Having all of its debt being unsecured, this provides TCH the flexibility to raise debt and refinance its borrowings by pledging its assets if needed. In this case, we are confident that the company will continue to have access to bank financing or through additional unsecured bond issues at reasonable cost. Valuation As of the time of writing, the TCMH 4.5% 22Nov2019 (MYR) is trading at a price of 97.87, reflecting a yield to maturity of 5.935%. We think the pricing provides a fairly attractive yield for a short tenor (1.59 years to maturity) exposure within the MYR bond space. The yield of 5.935% indicates a G- spread of 249 basis points. We note also that the TCMH 4.5% 22Nov2019 (MYR) offers better value as compared to another issuance of TCH, the TCMH 4.7% 24Nov2021 (MYR). The TCMH 4.7% 24Nov2021 (MYR) is trading at 6.118%, which represents a G-spread of 260 basis points. In our view, a mere difference of 11 basis points in credit spread is insufficient to compensate us from extending the duration for two years. In the peer space, we see DRB-Hicom Berhad’s DRBHMK 6.3% 05Nov2020 (MYR) as the closest comparable, which has a similar rating rated (A+) by Malaysian Rating Corporation Berhad. That note is currently trading at an indicative price of 101.05, giving a yield to maturity of 5.90%. Providing a slight yield pickup of 3.5 basis points with similar rating and shorter tenor, we view TCMH 4.5% 22Nov2019 (MYR) as an interesting bond idea in the Malaysian automotive industry.
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