Medieval Warm Period in South America
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M EDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN OUTH MERICA S A SPPI & CO2SCIENCE ORIGINAL PAPER ♦ September 4, 2013 MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN SOUTH AMERICA Citation: Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. "Medieval Warm Period in South America.” Last modified September 4, 2013. http://www.co2science.org/subject/m/summaries/mwpsoutham.php. Was there a Medieval Warm Period anywhere in addition to the area surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean, where its occurrence is uncontested? This question is of utmost importance to the ongoing global warming debate, since if there was, and if the locations where it occurred were as warm then as they are currently, there is no need to consider the temperature increase of the past century as anything other than the natural progression of the persistent millennial- scale oscillation of climate that regularly brings the earth several-hundred-year periods of modestly higher and lower temperatures that are totally independent of variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Hence, this question is here considered as it applies to South America, a region far removed from where the existence of the Medieval Warm Period was first recognized. Cioccale (1999) assembled what was known at the time about the climatic history of the central region of the country over the past 1400 years, highlighting a climatic "improvement" that began some 400 years before the start of the last millennium, which ultimately came to be characterized by "a marked increase of environmental suitability, under a relatively homogeneous climate." And as a result of this climatic amelioration that marked the transition of the region from the Dark Ages Cold Period to the Medieval Warm Period, Cioccale reported that "the population located in the lower valleys ascended to higher areas in the Andes," where they remained until around AD 1320, when the transition to the stressful and extreme climate of the Little Ice Age began. Down at the southern tip of the country in Tierra del Fuego, Mauquoy et al. (2004) inferred similar changes in temperature and/or precipitation from plant macrofossils, pollen, fungal spores, testate amebae and humification associated with peat monoliths collected from the Valle de Andorra. These new chronologies were compared with other chronologies of pertinent data from both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres in an analysis that indicated there was evidence for a period of warming-induced drier conditions from AD 960-1020, which, in their words, "seems to correspond to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, as derived in the Northern Hemisphere)." They also noted that "this interval compares well to the date range of AD 950-1045 based on Northern Hemisphere extratropical tree-ring data (Esper et al., 2002)," and they thus concluded that this correspondence "shows that the MWP was possibly synchronous in both hemispheres, as suggested by Villalba (1994)." One year later, Haberzettl et al. (2005) worked with five sediment cores extracted from Laguna Potrok Aike (51°58'S, 70°23'W), which is one of the few permanently water-filled lakes in the dry-lands of southern Patagonia, where they analyzed a host of proxy climate indicators, finding that "the sediment record of Laguna Potrok Aike reveals an unprecedented sensitive 2 continuous high resolution lake level, vegetation and climate record for southern Patagonia since AD 400." This history indicates that the climate of the region fluctuated rapidly from the beginning of the record right up to the start of the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA, which was proposed by Stine (1998) to have begun at about AD 870). This earlier interval of time corresponds with the Dark Ages Cold Period of Europe; and it was followed, of course, by the MCA, or what Europeans called the Medieval Warm Period, which was most strongly expressed in the Laguna Potrok Aike data from AD 1240 to 1410, during which period maxima of total inorganic carbon (TIC), total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), carbon/nitrogen ratio (C/N) and δ13Corg indicated, in the Haberzettl et al. stated words of the ten researchers, "low lake levels and warm and dry climate." "there is evidence for lower Thereafter, as the scientists continued, "the lake levels during the MCA MCA ends during the 15th century" and is "followed by the so called 'Little Ice Age'." than today in every proxy." Last of all, "in the course of the 20th century," they report that "Laguna Potrok … This implies that it might Aike reacted like many other Patagonian lakes with a lake level lowering after 1940, have been warmer during AD culminating in 1990, and followed by a subsequent rise and recession." 1240 to 1410 than today. With respect to the question of whether it was warmer during the MCA than during the 20th century," Haberzettl et al. stated "there is evidence for lower lake levels during the MCA than today in every proxy," and that "the existence of lower lake levels in former times was demonstrated by seismic studies which revealed hitherto undated fossil lake level terraces ca. 30 m below the present lake level (Zolitschka et al., 2004)." In addition, they wrote that "TOC and TN as proxies reflecting productivity also show higher values during the MCA than today," even though "present TOC and TN values are elevated due to anthropogenic eutrophication." And so they concluded that "this altogether implies that it might have been warmer during [AD 1240 to 1410] than today." Kellerhals et al. (2010) introduced their study of the climate of the Bolivian Andes by noting that "to place recent global warming into a longer-term perspective and to understand the mechanisms and causes of climate change, proxy-derived temperature estimates are needed for time periods prior to instrumental records and regions outside instrumental coverage." And in this regard they indicated that "for tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere ... proxy information is very fragmentary." To help fill this data void, the team of six scientists developed what they described as "a reconstruction of tropical South American temperature anomalies over the 3 last ~1600 years ... based on a highly resolved and carefully dated ammonium record from an ice core that was drilled in 1999 on Nevado Illimani [16°37'S, 67°46'W] in the eastern Bolivian Andes," while noting that "studies from other remote ice core sites have found significant + correlations between NH4 concentration and temperature for Siberia and the Indian subcontinent for preindustrial time periods," citing the work of Kang et al. (2002) and Eichler et al. (2009). As for calibrating and validating the NH4+-to-°C transfer function, they said they used "the Amazon Basin subset of the gridded HadCRUT3 temperature data set," which is described by Brohan et al. (2006). With respect to their findings, Kellerhals et al. said that "the most striking features in the reconstruction are [1] the warm temperatures from ~1050 to ~1300 AD [the Medieval Warm Period] compared to the preceding and following centuries, [2] the persistent cooler temperatures from ~1400 to ~1800 AD [the Little Ice Age], and [3] the subsequent rise to warmer temperatures [the Current Warm Period] which eventually seem to exceed, in the last decades of the 20th century, the range of past variation." And in regard to this last observation, the graph of their data suggests that the peak warmth of the Current Warm Period may, in this particular case, actually have been ~0.27°C greater than the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period. Reconstructed tropical South American temperature anomalies normalized to the AD 1961-1990 average and smoothed with a 39-year Gaussian filter. Adapted from Kellerhals et al. (2010). Vuille et al. (2012) reviewed the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) over the past two millennia, based on information obtained from high-resolution stable isotopes derived from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments acquired from the monsoon belt of the tropical Andes and Southeast Brazil. This work revealed, as they describe it, "a very coherent behavior over the past two millennia with significant decadal to multi-decadal variability superimposed on large excursions during three key periods: the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warm period (CWP)," which they interpreted as "times when 4 the SASM's mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively." The nine researchers then hypothesized that "these centennial-scale climate anomalies were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and a change in monsoon intensity (amount of rainfall upstream over the Amazon Basin)." And with their noting that the intensity of the SASM "today appears on par with conditions during the MCA," it can logically be concluded that the peak temperatures of the MCA and the CWP over the North Atlantic Ocean are likely on a par with each other as well, which suggests that (1) there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about today's current level of warmth over the North Atlantic, and that (2) today's level of warmth everywhere need not have been caused by the 40% greater atmospheric CO2 concentration of today. Jenny et al. (2002) studied geochemical, sedimentological and diatom- assemblage data derived from sediment cores extracted from one of the largest natural lakes (Laguna Aculeo) in the central part of the country. From 200 BC, when the record began, until AD 200, conditions there were primarily dry, during the latter stages of the Roman Warm Period. Subsequently, from AD 200-700, with a slight respite in the central hundred years of that period, there was a high frequency of flood events, during the Dark Ages Cold Period.