Solar Cycles: Another Prediction
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Medieval Warm Period in South America
M EDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN OUTH MERICA S A SPPI & CO2SCIENCE ORIGINAL PAPER ♦ September 4, 2013 MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN SOUTH AMERICA Citation: Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. "Medieval Warm Period in South America.” Last modified September 4, 2013. http://www.co2science.org/subject/m/summaries/mwpsoutham.php. Was there a Medieval Warm Period anywhere in addition to the area surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean, where its occurrence is uncontested? This question is of utmost importance to the ongoing global warming debate, since if there was, and if the locations where it occurred were as warm then as they are currently, there is no need to consider the temperature increase of the past century as anything other than the natural progression of the persistent millennial- scale oscillation of climate that regularly brings the earth several-hundred-year periods of modestly higher and lower temperatures that are totally independent of variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Hence, this question is here considered as it applies to South America, a region far removed from where the existence of the Medieval Warm Period was first recognized. Cioccale (1999) assembled what was known at the time about the climatic history of the central region of the country over the past 1400 years, highlighting a climatic "improvement" that began some 400 years before the start of the last millennium, which ultimately came to be characterized by "a marked increase of environmental suitability, under a relatively homogeneous climate." And as a result of this climatic amelioration that marked the transition of the region from the Dark Ages Cold Period to the Medieval Warm Period, Cioccale reported that "the population located in the lower valleys ascended to higher areas in the Andes," where they remained until around AD 1320, when the transition to the stressful and extreme climate of the Little Ice Age began. -
Using Patterns of Recurring Climate Cycles to Predict Future Climate Changes D.J
CHAPTER 21 Using Patterns of Recurring Climate Cycles to Predict Future Climate Changes D.J. Easterbrook Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA, United States OUTLINE 1. Introduction 395 4. Correlation of Temperature Cycles and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation 405 2. The Past is the Key to the Future: Lessons From Past Global Climate Changes 396 5. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 407 2.1 Past Climate Changes 396 6. Where Is Climate Headed During the Coming 2.2 Magnitude and Rate of Abrupt Climate Changes 396 Century? 407 2.3 Holocene Climate Changes (10,000 Years Ago 6.1 IPCC Predictions 407 to Present) 398 6.2 Predictions Based on Past Cyclic Climate 2.3.1 The Roman Warm Period 398 Patterns 407 2.3.2 Dark Ages Cool Period 398 2.3.3 Medieval Warm Period (900e1300 AD) 400 References 410 2.3.4 The Little Ice Age 401 2.3.5 Climate Changes During the Past Century 403 3. Significance of Past Global Climate Changes 404 1. INTRODUCTION Global warming that occurred from 1978 to about 1998 pushed climate change into the forefront of potential concern. Every day the news media is filled with dire predictions of impending disastersdcatastrophic melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, drowning of major cities from sea level rise, drowning of major portions of countries, droughts, severe water shortages, no more snow, more extreme weather events (hurricanes, tor- nadoes), etc. With no unequivocal, cause-and-effect, tangible, physical evidence that increasing CO2 caused this most recent global warming, adherents of this ideology have had to rely on computer models that have proven to be unreliable. -
1 I Vestigati G Late Holoce E Orth Atla Tic Climate
S. Gaurin – dissertation prospectus UMass Geosciences IVESTIGATIG LATE HOLOCEE ORTH ATLATIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY THROUGH SPELEOTHEM PALEOPROXY AD HISTORICAL WEATHER DATA FROM BERMUDA INTRODUCTION Recent trends in hurricane frequency and intensity, a continually growing coastal population, and the presence of wide-reaching climatic patterns all underscore the importance of understanding changes in North Atlantic climate. Numerous paleoclimate studies have identified the North Atlantic as a region of importance in regulating global climate through meridional overturning circulation and other processes. The study proposed herein is focused on using stable isotope data from Bermuda speleothem calcium carbonate to help reconstruct dominant low-frequency modes of North Atlantic climate variability through the mid-Holocene (the last several thousand years). This period is replete with climate changes, from the warm hypsithermal peak of ~6000 years ago, followed by the slow overall cooling of the neoglacial, punctuated by rapid change “events” and century-scale periods like the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. Recent warming from the start of the 20 th century to the present has been attributed largely to the build-up of atmospheric greenhouse gases (Mann et al., 1998, 1999) and may herald the beginning of a possibly rapid transition to a new, warmer climate regime. The more we learn about the natural workings of the climate system on time scales of decades to centuries, which are of particular relevance as they are on the scale of a human lifetime, the better prepared we can be for warming-induced changes, some of which may already be afoot, such as the possibility that warmer ocean temperatures are increasing hurricane frequency (Goldenberg et al., 2001; Knight et al., 2006) or intensity (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004). -
The Science of Roman History Biology, Climate, and the Future of the Past
The Science of Roman History Biology, climaTe, and The fuTuRe of The PaST Edited by Walter Scheidel PRinceTon univeRSiTy PReSS PRinceTon & oxfoRd Copyright © 2018 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR press.princeton.edu All Rights Reserved ISBN 978- 0- 691- 16256- 0 Library of Congress Control Number 2017963022 British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Miller Printed on acid- free paper. ∞ Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 conTenTS List of Illustrations and Tables · vii Notes on Contributors · ix Acknowledgments · xiii Maps · xiv Introduction 1 Walter Scheidel chaPTeR 1. Reconstructing the Roman Climate 11 Kyle Harper & Michael McCormick chaPTeR 2. Archaeobotany: The Archaeology of Human- Plant Interactions 53 Marijke van der Veen chaPTeR 3. Zooarchaeology: Reconstructing the Natural and Cultural Worlds from Archaeological Faunal Remains 95 Michael MacKinnon chaPTeR 4. Bones, Teeth, and History 123 Alessandra Sperduti, Luca Bondioli, Oliver E. Craig, Tracy Prowse, & Peter Garnsey chaPTeR 5. Human Growth and Stature 174 Rebecca Gowland & Lauren Walther chaPTeR 6. Ancient DNA 205 Noreen Tuross & Michael G. Campana chaPTeR 7. Modern DNA and the Ancient Mediterranean 224 Roy J. King & Peter A. Underhill Index · 249 [ v ] illuSTRaTionS and TaBleS Maps 1. Western Mediterranean. xiv 2. Eastern Mediterranean. xv 3. Northwestern Europe. xvi Figures 1.1. TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) from 14C. 19 1.2. TSI from 10Be. 19 1.3. -
Oxygen Isotope Evidence for Paleoclimate Change During The
PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION IN NORTHWEST SCOTLAND AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE LATE HOLOCENE Ting Wang A dissertation submitted to the faculty of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Geological Sciences. Chapel Hill 2011 Approved by: Dr. Donna M. Surge Dr. Joseph G. Carter Dr. Jose A. Rial Dr. Justin B. Ries Dr. Karen J. Walker © 2011 Ting Wang ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii ABSTRACT TING WANG: Paleoclimate Reconstruction in Northwest Scotland and Southwest Florida during the Late Holocene (Under the direction of Dr. Donna M. Surge) The study reconstructed seasonal climate change in mid-latitude northwest Scotland during the climate episodes Neoglacial (~3300-2500 BP) and Roman Warm Period (RWP; ~2500-1600 BP) and in subtropical southwest Florida during the latter part of RWP (1-550 AD) based on archaeological shell accumulations in two study areas. In northwest Scotland, seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) during the Neoglacial and RWP was estimated from high-resolution oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) of radiocarbon-dated limpet (Patella vulgata) shells accumulated in a cave dwelling on the Isle of Mull. The SST results revealed a cooling transition from the Neoglacial to RWP, which is supported by earlier studies of pine pollen in Scotland and European glacial events and also coincident with the abrupt climate deterioration at 2800-2700 BP. The cooling transition might have been driven by decreased solar radiation and weakened North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions. In southwest Florida, seasonal-scale climate conditions for the latter part of RWP were reconstructed by using high-resolution δ18O of archaeological shells (Mercenaria campechiensis) and otoliths (Ariopsis felis). -
On the Climate History of Chaco Canyon
UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography Technical Report Title On the Climate History of Chaco Canyon Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1qv786mc Author Berger, Wolfgang H. Publication Date 2009-04-01 eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California ON THE CLIMATE HISTORY OF CHACO CANYON W.H. Berger, Ph.D. Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Notes on Chaco Canyon history in connection with the presentation “Drought Cycles in Anasazi Land – Sun, Moon, and ocean oscillations,” at the PACLIM Conference in Asilomar, California, in April 2009. On the Involvement of the Sun in Chaco Canyon Climate History Tree-ring research since A.E. Douglass and E. Schulman has brought great benefits to the archaeology of the Southwest. It has become possible to reconstruct the climate narrative in some detail. The appropriate field of study is termed “dendroclimatology,” which is focused on the information contained in the growth of a given set of trees. The term harks back to the intent of the pioneer, the solar astronomer Douglass, who worked early in the 20th century. Since that time the study of tree rings has become a respected branch of Earth Sciences, with well-defined objects and methods (Hughes et al., 1982; Fritts, 1991). Douglass spent great efforts on documenting a role for the sun in climate change. Studies relating climate to solar variation have multiplied since. As yet, a focus on solar activity encounters much skepticism among climate scientists (see, e.g., Hoyt and Schatten, 1997). The expert’s skepticism has several causes. -
The Influence of Climatic Change on the Late Bronze Age Collapse and the Greek Dark Ages Journal of Archaeological Science
Journal of Archaeological Science 39 (2012) 1862e1870 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Journal of Archaeological Science journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jas The influence of climatic change on the Late Bronze Age Collapse and the Greek Dark Ages Brandon L. Drake* Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, United States article info abstract Article history: Between the 13th and 11th centuries BCE, most Greek Bronze Age Palatial centers were destroyed and/or Received 28 July 2011 abandoned. The following centuries were typified by low population levels. Data from oxygen-isotope Received in revised form speleothems, stable carbon isotopes, alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures, and changes in 19 January 2012 warm-species dinocysts and formanifera in the Mediterranean indicate that the Early Iron Age was more Accepted 26 January 2012 arid than the preceding Bronze Age. A sharp increase in Northern Hemisphere temperatures preceded the collapse of Palatial centers, a sharp decrease occurred during their abandonment. Mediterranean Sea Keywords: surface temperatures cooled rapidly during the Late Bronze Age, limiting freshwater flux into the Bronze Age Collapse Carbon isotopes atmosphere and thus reducing precipitation over land. These climatic changes could have affected Speleothems Palatial centers that were dependent upon high levels of agricultural productivity. Declines in agricul- SST tural production would have made higher-density populations in Palatial centers unsustainable. The Sea surface temperature ‘Greek Dark Ages’ that followed occurred during prolonged arid conditions that lasted until the Roman Climate change Warm Period. Paleoclimate Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction suggested that a centuries-long megadrought caused the wide- spread systems collapse of Bronze Age Palatial civilization. -
A Companion to Ancient History Edited by Andrew Erskine © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
A COMPANION TO ANCIENT HISTORY A Companion to Ancient History Edited by Andrew Erskine © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. ISBN: 978-1-405-13150-6 BLACKWELL COMPANIONS TO THE ANCIENT WORLD This series provides sophisticated and authoritative overviews of periods of ancient history, genres of classical literature, and the most important themes in ancient culture. Each volume comprises between twenty-fi ve and forty concise essays written by individual scholars within their area of specialization. The essays are written in a clear, provocative, and lively manner, designed for an international audience of scholars, students, and general readers. ANCIENT HISTORY LITERATURE AND CULTURE A Companion to the Roman Army A Companion to Classical Receptions Edited by Paul Erdkamp Edited by Lorna Hardwick and Christopher Stray A Companion to the Roman Republic Edited by Nathan Rosenstein and Robert A Companion to Greek and Roman Morstein-Marx Historiography Edited by John Marincola A Companion to the Roman Empire Edited by David S. Potter A Companion to Catullus Edited by Marilyn B. Skinner A Companion to the Classical Greek World Edited by Konrad H. Kinzl A Companion to Roman Religion Edited by Jörg Rüpke A Companion to the Ancient Near East Edited by Daniel C. Snell A Companion to Greek Religion Edited by Daniel Ogden A Companion to the Hellenistic World Edited by Andrew Erskine A Companion to the Classical Tradition Edited by Craig W. Kallendorf A Companion to Late Antiquity Edited by Philip Rousseau A Companion to Roman Rhetoric Edited by William Dominik and Jon Hall A Companion to Archaic Greece Edited by Kurt A. -
The Ancient Mediterranean Environment Between Science and History Columbia Studies in the Classical Tradition
The Ancient Mediterranean Environment between Science and History Columbia Studies in the Classical Tradition Editorial Board William V. Harris (editor) Alan Cameron, Suzanne Said, Kathy H. Eden, Gareth D. Williams, Holger A. Klein VOLUME 39 The titles published in this series are listed at brill.com/csct The Ancient Mediterranean Environment between Science and History Edited by W.V. Harris LEIDEN • BOSTON 2013 Cover illustration: Fresco from the Casa del Bracciale d’Oro, Insula Occidentalis 42, Pompeii. Photograph © Stefano Bolognini. Courtesy of the Soprintendenza Archeologica di Pompei. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The ancient Mediterranean environment between science and history / edited by W.V. Harris. pages cm. – (Columbia studies in the classical tradition, ISSN 0166-1302 ; volume 39) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-90-04-25343-8 (hardback : alk. paper) – ISBN 978-90-04-25405-3 (e-book) 1. Human ecology–Mediterranean Region–History. 2. Mediterranean Region–Environmental conditions–History. 3. Nature–Effect of human beings on–Mediterranean Region–History. I. Harris, William V. (William Vernon) author, editor of compilation. GF541.A64 2013 550.937–dc23 2013021551 This publication has been typeset in the multilingual “Brill” typeface. With over 5,100 characters covering Latin, IPA, Greek, and Cyrillic, this typeface is especially suitable for use in the humanities. For more information, please see www.brill.com/brill-typeface. ISSN 0166-1302 ISBN 978-90-04-25343-8 (hardback) ISBN 978-90-04-25405-3 (e-book) Copyright 2013 by The Trustees of Columbia University in the City of New York. Koninklijke Brill NV incorporates the imprints Brill, Global Oriental, Hotei Publishing, IDC Publishers and Martinus Nijhoff Publishers. -
Medieval Warm Period’
WAS THERE A 'MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD', AND IF SO, WHERE AND WHEN? MALCOLM K. HUGHES Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (addressfor correspondence), and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, U.S.A. and HENRY F. DIAZ NOAA/ERL/CDC, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303, U.S.A. Abstract. It has frequently been suggested that the period encompassing the ninth to the fourteenth centuries A.D. experienced a climate warmer than that prevailing around the turn of the twentieth century. This epoch has become known as the Medieval Warm Period, since it coincides with the Middle Ages in Europe. In this review a number of lines of evidence are considered, (including climate- sensitive tree rings, documentary sources, and montane glaciers) in order to evaluate whether it is reasonable to conclude that climate in medieval times was, indeed, warmer than the climate of more recent times. Our review indicates that for some areas of the globe (for example, Scandinavia, China, the Sierra Nevada in California, the Canadian Rockies and Tasmania), temperatures, particularly in summer, appear to have been higher during some parts of this period than those that were to prevail until the most recent decades of the twentieth century. These warmer regional episodes were not strongly synchronous. Evidence from other regions (for example, the Southeast United States, southern Europe along the Mediterranean, and parts of South America) indicates that the climate during that time was little different to that of later times, or that warming, if it occurred, was recorded at a later time than has been assumed. -
A Companion to Mediterranean History
A Companion to Mediterranean History 0002063973.INDD 1 2/18/2014 2:59:17 PM WILEY BLACKWELL COMPANIONS TO HISTORY This series provides sophisticated and authoritative overviews of the scholarship that has shaped our current understanding of the past. Defined by theme, period and/or region, each volume comprises between twenty-five and forty concise essays written by individual scholars within their area of specialization. The aim of each contribution is to synthesize the current state of scholarship from a variety of historical perspectives and to provide a statement on where the field is heading. The essays are written in a clear, provocative, and lively manner, designed for an international audience of scholars, students, and general readers. WILEY BLACKWELL COMPANIONS A Companion to the Medieval World TO BRITISH HISTORY Edited by Carol Lansing and Edward D. English A Companion to Roman Britain A Companion to the French Revolution Edited by Malcolm Todd Edited by Peter McPhee A Companion to Britain in the Later Middle Ages A Companion to Mediterranean History Edited by S. H. Rigby Edited by Peregrine Horden and Sharon Kinoshita A Companion to Tudor Britain WILEY BLACKWELL COMPANIONS Edited by Robert Tittler and Norman Jones TO WORLD HISTORY A Companion to Stuart Britain A Companion to Western Historical Thought Edited by Barry Coward Edited by Lloyd Kramer and Sarah Maza A Companion to Eighteenth-Century Britain A Companion to Gender History Edited by H. T. Dickinson Edited by Teresa A. Meade and Merry E. Wiesner-Hanks A Companion to Nineteenth-Century Britain A Companion to the History of the Middle East Edited by Chris Williams Edited by Youssef M. -
MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD in OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES (NOT Including China, Russia Or Japan)
M EDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN O THER ASIAN COUNTRIES (NOT Including China, Russia or Japan) SPPI & CO2SCIENCE ORIGINAL PAPER ♦ October 9, 2013 MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES (NOT Including China, Russia or Japan) Citation: Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. "Medieval Warm Period in Other Asian Countries.” Last modified October 9, 2013. http://www.co2science.org/subject/a/summaries/asiamwp.php. Climate alarmists have long contended that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was not a worldwide phenomenon, primarily because that reality would challenge another of their major claims, i.e., that late 20th-century temperatures were the warmest of the past millennium or more. Thus, it is important to know what has been learned about this subject in different parts of the world; and in this summary attention is focused on Asian countries other than China, Russia and Japan, which are treated individually in other MWP Summaries. In addition to China, Russia and Japan, the MWP has been identified in several other parts of Asia. Schilman et al. (2001)1, for example, analyzed foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopes, together with physical and geochemical properties of sediments, contained in two Off the coast of Israel … they cores extracted from the bed of the southeastern Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel, where they found evidence for the found evidence for the MWP MWP centered around AD 1200. And in discussing their findings, they make particular mention of the fact that there is an abundance centered around AD 1200. of other well-documented evidence for the existence of the MWP in the Eastern Mediterranean, including, in their words, "high In discussing their findings, they Saharan lake levels (Schoell, 1978; Nicholson, 1980), high Dead Sea levels (Issar et al.