New Estimation of the Post Little Ice Age Relative Sea Level Rise
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Sam White the Real Little Ice Age Between C.1300 and C.1850 A.D
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, xliv:3 (Winter, 2014), 327–352. THE REAL LITTLE ICE AGE Sam White The Real Little Ice Age Between c.1300 and c.1850 a.d. the world became, on average, slightly but signiªcantly colder. The change varied over time and space, and its causes remain un- certain. Nevertheless, this cooling constitutes a meaningful climate event, with signiªcant historical consequences. Both the cooling trend and its effects on humans appear to have been particularly Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/jinh/article-pdf/44/3/327/1706251/jinh_a_00574.pdf by guest on 28 September 2021 acute from the late sixteenth to the late seventeenth century in much of the Northern Hemisphere. This article explains why climatologists and historians are conªdent that these changes occurred. On close examination, the objections raised in this issue of the journal by Kelly and Ó Gráda turn out to be entirely unfounded. The proxy data for early mod- ern global cooling (such as tree rings and ice cores) are robust, and written weather descriptions and observations of physical phenom- ena (such as glacial movements and river freezings) by and large of- fer independent conªrmation. Kelly and Ó Gráda’s proposed alter- native measures of climate and climate change suffer from serious ºaws. As we review the evidence and refute their criticisms, it will become clear just how solid the case for the Little Ice Age (lia) has become. the case for the little ice age The evidence for early modern global cooling comes, ªrst and foremost, from extensive research into physical proxies, including ice cores, tree rings, corals, and speleothems (stalagmites and stalactites). -
Sea Level and Climate Introduction
Sea Level and Climate Introduction Global sea level and the Earth’s climate are closely linked. The Earth’s climate has warmed about 1°C (1.8°F) during the last 100 years. As the climate has warmed following the end of a recent cold period known as the “Little Ice Age” in the 19th century, sea level has been rising about 1 to 2 millimeters per year due to the reduction in volume of ice caps, ice fields, and mountain glaciers in addition to the thermal expansion of ocean water. If present trends continue, including an increase in global temperatures caused by increased greenhouse-gas emissions, many of the world’s mountain glaciers will disap- pear. For example, at the current rate of melting, most glaciers will be gone from Glacier National Park, Montana, by the middle of the next century (fig. 1). In Iceland, about 11 percent of the island is covered by glaciers (mostly ice caps). If warm- ing continues, Iceland’s glaciers will decrease by 40 percent by 2100 and virtually disappear by 2200. Most of the current global land ice mass is located in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets (table 1). Complete melt- ing of these ice sheets could lead to a sea-level rise of about 80 meters, whereas melting of all other glaciers could lead to a Figure 1. Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park, Montana; sea-level rise of only one-half meter. photograph by Carl H. Key, USGS, in 1981. The glacier has been retreating rapidly since the early 1900’s. -
1 I Vestigati G Late Holoce E Orth Atla Tic Climate
S. Gaurin – dissertation prospectus UMass Geosciences IVESTIGATIG LATE HOLOCEE ORTH ATLATIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY THROUGH SPELEOTHEM PALEOPROXY AD HISTORICAL WEATHER DATA FROM BERMUDA INTRODUCTION Recent trends in hurricane frequency and intensity, a continually growing coastal population, and the presence of wide-reaching climatic patterns all underscore the importance of understanding changes in North Atlantic climate. Numerous paleoclimate studies have identified the North Atlantic as a region of importance in regulating global climate through meridional overturning circulation and other processes. The study proposed herein is focused on using stable isotope data from Bermuda speleothem calcium carbonate to help reconstruct dominant low-frequency modes of North Atlantic climate variability through the mid-Holocene (the last several thousand years). This period is replete with climate changes, from the warm hypsithermal peak of ~6000 years ago, followed by the slow overall cooling of the neoglacial, punctuated by rapid change “events” and century-scale periods like the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. Recent warming from the start of the 20 th century to the present has been attributed largely to the build-up of atmospheric greenhouse gases (Mann et al., 1998, 1999) and may herald the beginning of a possibly rapid transition to a new, warmer climate regime. The more we learn about the natural workings of the climate system on time scales of decades to centuries, which are of particular relevance as they are on the scale of a human lifetime, the better prepared we can be for warming-induced changes, some of which may already be afoot, such as the possibility that warmer ocean temperatures are increasing hurricane frequency (Goldenberg et al., 2001; Knight et al., 2006) or intensity (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004). -
Remote Sensing of Sea Ice
Remote Sensing of Sea Ice Peter Lemke Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Institute for Environmental Physics University of Bremen Contents 1. Ice and climate 2. Sea Ice Properties 3. Remote Sensing Techniques Contents 1. Ice and climate 2. Sea Ice Properties 3. Remote Sensing Techniques The Cryosphere Area Volume Volume [106 km2] [106 km3] [relativ] Ice Sheets 14.8 28.8 600 Ice Shelves 1.4 0.5 10 Sea Ice 23.0 0.05 1 Snow 45.0 0.0025 0.05 Climate System vHigh albedo vLatent heat vPlastic material Role of Ice in Climate v Impact on surface energy balance (global sink) ! Atmospheric circulation ! Oceanic circulation ! Polar amplification v Impact on gas exchange between the atmosphere and Earth’s surface v Impact on water cycle, water supply v Impact on sea level (ice mass imbalance) v Defines boundary conditions for ecosystems Role of Ice in Climate v Polar amplification in CO2 warming scenarios (surface energy balance; temperature – ice albedo feedback) IPCC, 2007 Role of Ice in Climate Polar amplification GFDL model 12 IPCC AR4 models Warming from CO2 doubling with Warming at CO2 doubling (years fixed albedo (FA) and with surface 61-80) (Winton, 2006) albedo feedback included (VA) (Hall, 2004) Contents 1. Ice and climate 2. Sea Ice Properties 3. Remote Sensing Techniques Pancake Ice Pancake Ice Old Pancake Ice First Year Ice Pressure Ridges Pressure Ridges New Ice Formation in Leads New Ice Formation in Leads New Ice Formation in Leads Melt Ponds on Arctic Sea Ice Melt ponds in the Arctic 150 m Sediment -
East Antarctic Sea Ice in Spring: Spectral Albedo of Snow, Nilas, Frost Flowers and Slush, and Light-Absorbing Impurities in Snow
Annals of Glaciology 56(69) 2015 doi: 10.3189/2015AoG69A574 53 East Antarctic sea ice in spring: spectral albedo of snow, nilas, frost flowers and slush, and light-absorbing impurities in snow Maria C. ZATKO, Stephen G. WARREN Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA E-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT. Spectral albedos of open water, nilas, nilas with frost flowers, slush, and first-year ice with both thin and thick snow cover were measured in the East Antarctic sea-ice zone during the Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystems eXperiment II (SIPEX II) from September to November 2012, near 658 S, 1208 E. Albedo was measured across the ultraviolet (UV), visible and near-infrared (nIR) wavelengths, augmenting a dataset from prior Antarctic expeditions with spectral coverage extended to longer wavelengths, and with measurement of slush and frost flowers, which had not been encountered on the prior expeditions. At visible and UV wavelengths, the albedo depends on the thickness of snow or ice; in the nIR the albedo is determined by the specific surface area. The growth of frost flowers causes the nilas albedo to increase by 0.2±0.3 in the UV and visible wavelengths. The spectral albedos are integrated over wavelength to obtain broadband albedos for wavelength bands commonly used in climate models. The albedo spectrum for deep snow on first-year sea ice shows no evidence of light- absorbing particulate impurities (LAI), such as black carbon (BC) or organics, which is consistent with the extremely small quantities of LAI found by filtering snow meltwater. -
Volcanism and the Little Ice Age
Volcanism and the Little Ice Age THOM A S J. CRO wl E Y 1*, G. ZIELINSK I 2, B. VINTHER 3, R. UD ISTI 4, K. KREUT Z 5, J. CO L E -DA I 6 A N D E. CA STE lla NO 4 1School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK; [email protected] 2Center for Marine and Wetland Studies, Coastal Carolina University, Conway, USA 3Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark 4Department of Chemistry, University of Florence, Italy 5Department of Earth Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, USA 6Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, South Dakota State University, Brookings, USA *Collaborating authors listed in reverse alphabetical order. The Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250-1850) has long been considered the coldest interval of the Holocene. Because of its proximity to the present, there are many types of valuable resources for reconstructing tem- peratures from this time interval. Although reconstructions differ in the amplitude Special Section: Comparison Data-Model of cooling during the LIA, they almost all agree that maximum cooling occurred in the mid-15th, 17th and early 19th centuries. The LIA period also provides climate scientists with an opportunity to test their models against a time interval that experienced both significant volcanism and (perhaps) solar insolation variations. Such studies provide information on the ability of models to simulate climates and also provide a valuable backdrop to the subsequent 20th century warming that was driven primarily from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases. Although solar variability has often been considered the primary agent for LIA cooling, the most comprehensive test of this explanation (Hegerl et al., 2003) points instead to volcanism being substantially more important, explaining as much as 40% of the decadal-scale variance during the LIA. -
On the Climate History of Chaco Canyon
UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography Technical Report Title On the Climate History of Chaco Canyon Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1qv786mc Author Berger, Wolfgang H. Publication Date 2009-04-01 eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California ON THE CLIMATE HISTORY OF CHACO CANYON W.H. Berger, Ph.D. Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Notes on Chaco Canyon history in connection with the presentation “Drought Cycles in Anasazi Land – Sun, Moon, and ocean oscillations,” at the PACLIM Conference in Asilomar, California, in April 2009. On the Involvement of the Sun in Chaco Canyon Climate History Tree-ring research since A.E. Douglass and E. Schulman has brought great benefits to the archaeology of the Southwest. It has become possible to reconstruct the climate narrative in some detail. The appropriate field of study is termed “dendroclimatology,” which is focused on the information contained in the growth of a given set of trees. The term harks back to the intent of the pioneer, the solar astronomer Douglass, who worked early in the 20th century. Since that time the study of tree rings has become a respected branch of Earth Sciences, with well-defined objects and methods (Hughes et al., 1982; Fritts, 1991). Douglass spent great efforts on documenting a role for the sun in climate change. Studies relating climate to solar variation have multiplied since. As yet, a focus on solar activity encounters much skepticism among climate scientists (see, e.g., Hoyt and Schatten, 1997). The expert’s skepticism has several causes. -
Observed Climate Variations and Change
7 Observed Climate Variations and Change C.K. FOLLAND, T.R. KARL, K.YA. VINNIKOV Contributors: J.K. Angell; P. Arkin; R.G. Barry; R. Bradley; D.L. Cadet; M. Chelliah; M. Coughlan; B. Dahlstrom; H.F. Diaz; H Flohn; C. Fu; P. Groisman; A. Gruber; S. Hastenrath; A. Henderson-Sellers; K. Higuchi; P.D. Jones; J. Knox; G. Kukla; S. Levitus; X. Lin; N. Nicholls; B.S. Nyenzi; J.S. Oguntoyinbo; G.B. Pant; D.E. Parker; B. Pittock; R. Reynolds; C.F. Ropelewski; CD. Schonwiese; B. Sevruk; A. Solow; K.E. Trenberth; P. Wadhams; W.C Wang; S. Woodruff; T. Yasunari; Z. Zeng; andX. Zhou. CONTENTS Executive Summary 199 7.6 Tropospheric Variations and Change 220 7.6.1 Temperature 220 7.1 Introduction 201 7.6.2 Comparisons of Recent Tropospheric and Surface Temperature Data 222 7.2 Palaeo-Climatic Variations and Change 201 7.6.3 Moisture 222 7.2.1 Climate of the Past 5,000,000 Years 201 7.2.2 Palaeo-climate Analogues for Three Warm 7.7 Sub-Surface Ocean Temperature and Salinity Epochs 203 Variations 222 7.2.2.1 Pliocene climatic optimum (3,000,000 to 4,300,000 BP) 203 7.8 Variations and Changes in the Cryosphere 223 7.2.2.2 Eemian interglacial optimum (125,000 to 7.8.1 Snow Cover 223 130,000 years BP) 204 7.8.2 Sea Ice Extent and Thickness 224 7.2.2.3 Climate of the Holocene optimum (5000 to 7.8.3 Land Ice (Mountain Glaciers) 225 6000 years BP) 204 7.8.4 Permafrost 225 7.9 Variations and Changes in Atmospheric 7.3 The Modern Instrumental Record 206 Circulation 225 7.9.1 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Influences 226 7.4 Surface Temperature Variations and -
Lecture 4: OCEANS (Outline)
LectureLecture 44 :: OCEANSOCEANS (Outline)(Outline) Basic Structures and Dynamics Ekman transport Geostrophic currents Surface Ocean Circulation Subtropicl gyre Boundary current Deep Ocean Circulation Thermohaline conveyor belt ESS200A Prof. Jin -Yi Yu BasicBasic OceanOcean StructuresStructures Warm up by sunlight! Upper Ocean (~100 m) Shallow, warm upper layer where light is abundant and where most marine life can be found. Deep Ocean Cold, dark, deep ocean where plenty supplies of nutrients and carbon exist. ESS200A No sunlight! Prof. Jin -Yi Yu BasicBasic OceanOcean CurrentCurrent SystemsSystems Upper Ocean surface circulation Deep Ocean deep ocean circulation ESS200A (from “Is The Temperature Rising?”) Prof. Jin -Yi Yu TheThe StateState ofof OceansOceans Temperature warm on the upper ocean, cold in the deeper ocean. Salinity variations determined by evaporation, precipitation, sea-ice formation and melt, and river runoff. Density small in the upper ocean, large in the deeper ocean. ESS200A Prof. Jin -Yi Yu PotentialPotential TemperatureTemperature Potential temperature is very close to temperature in the ocean. The average temperature of the world ocean is about 3.6°C. ESS200A (from Global Physical Climatology ) Prof. Jin -Yi Yu SalinitySalinity E < P Sea-ice formation and melting E > P Salinity is the mass of dissolved salts in a kilogram of seawater. Unit: ‰ (part per thousand; per mil). The average salinity of the world ocean is 34.7‰. Four major factors that affect salinity: evaporation, precipitation, inflow of river water, and sea-ice formation and melting. (from Global Physical Climatology ) ESS200A Prof. Jin -Yi Yu Low density due to absorption of solar energy near the surface. DensityDensity Seawater is almost incompressible, so the density of seawater is always very close to 1000 kg/m 3. -
Interannual Variability in Transpolar Drift Ice Thickness and Potential Impact of Atlantification
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-305 Preprint. Discussion started: 22 October 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification H. Jakob Belter1, Thomas Krumpen1, Luisa von Albedyll1, Tatiana A. Alekseeva2, Sergei V. Frolov2, Stefan Hendricks1, Andreas Herber1, Igor Polyakov3,4,5, Ian Raphael6, Robert Ricker1, Sergei S. Serovetnikov2, Melinda Webster7, and Christian Haas1 1Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany 2Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation 3International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, US 4College of Natural Science and Mathematics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, US 5Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland 6Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth College, Hanover, US 7Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, US Correspondence: H. Jakob Belter ([email protected]) Abstract. Changes in Arctic sea ice thickness are the result of complex interactions of the dynamic and variable ice cover with atmosphere and ocean. Most of the sea ice exits the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, which is why long-term measurements of ice thickness at the end of the Transpolar Drift provide insight into the integrated signals of thermodynamic and dynamic influences along the pathways of Arctic sea ice. We present an updated time series of extensive ice thickness surveys carried 5 out at the end of the Transpolar Drift between 2001 and 2020. Overall, we see a more than 20% thinning of modal ice thickness since 2001. A comparison with first preliminary results from the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) shows that the modal summer thickness of the MOSAiC floe and its wider vicinity are consistent with measurements from previous years. -
Initially, the Committee's Work Focused on the Hydraulic Aspects of River Ice
Ice composites as construction materials in projects of ice structures Citation for published version (APA): Vasiliev, N. K., & Pronk, A. D. C. (2015). Ice composites as construction materials in projects of ice structures. 1- 11. Paper presented at 23rd International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC ’15), June 14-18, 2015, Trondheim, Norway, Trondheim, Norway. Document status and date: Published: 14/06/2015 Document Version: Publisher’s PDF, also known as Version of Record (includes final page, issue and volume numbers) Please check the document version of this publication: • A submitted manuscript is the version of the article upon submission and before peer-review. There can be important differences between the submitted version and the official published version of record. People interested in the research are advised to contact the author for the final version of the publication, or visit the DOI to the publisher's website. • The final author version and the galley proof are versions of the publication after peer review. • The final published version features the final layout of the paper including the volume, issue and page numbers. Link to publication General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal. -
Sea-Level Changes Over the Past 1,000 Years in the Pacific Author(S): Patrick D
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by University of the South Pacific Electronic Research Repository Coastal Education & Research Foundation, Inc. Sea-Level Changes over the past 1,000 Years in the Pacific Author(s): Patrick D. Nunn Source: Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 14, No. 1 (Winter, 1998), pp. 23-30 Published by: Coastal Education & Research Foundation, Inc. Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4298758 . Accessed: 11/09/2013 18:35 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Coastal Education & Research Foundation, Inc. is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of Coastal Research. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 144.120.8.19 on Wed, 11 Sep 2013 18:35:10 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions JournalofCoastal Research 14 J 1 23-30 RoyalPalmBeach, Florida Winter1998 Sea-Level Changes over the Past 1,000 Years in the Pacific1 Patrick D. Nunn Department of Geography The University of the South Pacific P.O. Box 1168 Suva, FIJI ABSTRACTI Nunn, P.D., 1998. Sea-level changes over the past 1,000 years in the Pacific.Journal of CoastalResearch, 14(1), 23- ,S $00 ?00O av 30.