Real Estate Highlights SINGAPORE • HONG KONG • SYDNEY • LONDON • EDINBURGH • KUALA LUMPUR • SHANGHAI • BEIJING • BANGKOK • MUMBAI • NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
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Real Estate Highlights SINGAPORE • HONG KONG • SYDNEY • LONDON • EDINBURGH • KUALA LUMPUR • SHANGHAI • BEIJING • BANGKOK • MUMBAI • NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION This research report has been prepared by: Specially for distribution to customers of: RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY • 3RD QUARTER • JUL – SEP 2008 Singapore Market Overview in 3Q 2008, singapore’s private residential property market buckled under the pressure of global financial concerns as both prices and rents fell, recording the first drop in over four years. Demand & Supply singapore’s private residential market continued to show signs of cooling as launch market activity waned amid elevated fears of the possible crumbling of global financial markets. With the financial health of global markets uncertain and overall growth fundamentals expected to thwart the dynamics of the residential market, it is anticipated that the launch market will remain moderate, at least until there is some stability in the financial markets. the secondary market continued to experience deflated demand as resale activity began to diminish at the onset of the second half of 2007. secondary market transactions have substantially decreased in the beginning of 2008. While the number of secondary market transactions started to fall when financial woes began as early as 3Q 2007, it was only at the start of this year when these were registered less than the five-year quarterly average of about 3,020 units. as at 3Q 2008, secondary market sales stood at about 2,400 units. With escalating concerns in financial markets, the private residential sector in 2008 has performed way below 2007 in terms of both launches and sales. developers launched a total of 5,401 private homes for sale in the first 3 quarters of this year, based on official statistics from the urban redevelopment authority (URA). this is only a mere 44% of the total launches in the initial 3 quarters of 2007. in 3Q 2008, developers sold about 1,558 private homes, which was about the same figure in the previous quarter. in the first nine months of this year, developers sold a total of 3,845 private homes, which is only nearly one-third, or 29%, of the sale figures in the corresponding period in 2007. Price & Rentals according to URA, prices in the private residential property market have generally declined by 2.4% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) in 3Q 2008, steeper than earlier flash estimates that indicated a 1.8% qoq drop.s pecifically, both overall landed and non-landed properties witnessed a fall this quarter, by 1.9% qoq and 2.5% qoq respectively. prices of non-landed homes in all regions fell during the third quarter. for the prime residential market segment (Core Central region), prices further weakened, with a 2.7% qoq decline in 3Q 2008. similarly, private home prices in the mid-tier (rest of Central region) recorded a smaller fall of 2.4% qoq this quarter. the greater fall in prices of homes in the Central region was because of the significant capital appreciation during the past three years, led by quality homes in the prime districts. on the other hand, average prices in the mass-market private home segment are a laggard with a slower start in terms of price expansion in 2005. as such, the third quarter saw the rate of change in the mass market prices decline by a smaller 1.5% qoq. mirroring price movements, the private leasing market has also eased when it recorded the first drop in over four years, by 0.9% qoq in 3Q 2008.d espite this, rents are still experiencing double-digit growth of 15.1% yoy. unlike the movement in prices, rents of non-landed property in all the three regions decreased this quarter. However, rents of homes in the mass market actually fell most, by 2.7% qoq, as some of the demand for mass-market private apartments has been drawn to the Hdb rental market. on the other hand, the abatement in both the prime and mid-tier rentals was slight, by 0.7% qoq and 0.5% qoq. © 2008 Citibank Citibank is a registered serviCe mark of Citigroup inC. CITIBANK SINGAPORE Limited. Co reg. no. 200309485k DISCLAIMER tHis PRESENTATION CONTAINS INFORMATION CONTROLLed or offered bY tHird PARTIES (non-affiLIATES of CITIGROUP). CITIBANK SINGAPORE Limited and ITS affiLIATES (CoLLeCtiveLY “CITIGROUP”) HerebY disCLaim LiabiLitY FOR anY INFORMATION, MATERIALs, PRODUCTS or SERVICES offered bY tHird PARTIES. CITIGROUP DOES NOT endorse or reCommend anY PRODUCTS or SERVICES offered or anY INFORMATION CONTAINED Herein, nor sHaLL CITIGROUP be LiabLe FOR anY FAILure of PRODUCTS or SERVICES offered bY tHird PARTIES. 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CITIGROUP WiLL NOT be LiabLe FOR anY DAMAGES, inCLuding WitHout LIMITATION direCt or indireCt, speCiaL, inCIDENTAL, or ConseQuentiaL DAMAGES, LOSSES or eXPENSES arising in ConneCtion WitH tHe INFORMATION CONTAINED in tHis PRESENTATION or anY referenCed SOURCe or use tHEREOF or inabiLitY TO use bY anY PARTY, EVEN if CITIGROUP or ITS REPRESENTATIVES, are ADVISED of tHe POSSIBILitY of suCH DAMAGES, LOSSES or eXPENSES. © knigHt frank 2008 tHis report is pubLisHed for generaL information only. aLtHougH HigH standards Have been used in tHe preparation of tHe information, analysis, vieWs and proJeCtions presented in tHis report, no LegaL responsibiLitY Can be accepted bY knigHt frank researCH or knigHt frank for anY Loss or damage resuLtant from tHe Contents of tHis doCument. as a generaL report, tHis materiaL does not neCessarily represent tHe vieW of knigHt frank in reLation to partiCuLar properties or proJeCts. reproduCtion of tHis report in WHoLe or in part is aLLoWed WitH proper referenCe to knigHt frank researCH. 1 Some possible major launches in the next 6 months Projects Tenure District Developer Location Units marina bay suites 99-year 01 Cheung kong/Hongkong Land/keppel Land Central boulevard 221 residential development 99-year 04 City developments Ltd sentosa Cove 228 seascape 99-year 04 Ho bee group/ioi Land sentosa Cove 151 the peak @ balmeg* fH 05 mCL Land balmeg Hill 180 urban resort* fH 09 Capital Land residential Limited Cairnhill road 64 residential development fH 09 Heeton Holdings grange road 28 paterson road/ paterson suites* fH 09 bukit sembawang estates Ltd 102 Lengkok angsa the oliv* fH 10 TG development pte Ltd balmoral road 23 madison residences* fH 10 keppel Land bukit timah road 56 verdure fH 10 bukit sembawang estates Ltd Holland road 75 Latitude* fH 10 CapitaLand Ltd Jalan mutiara 127 the trizon fH 10 singapore Land Ltd ridgewood Close 247 nathan residences* fH 10 tat aik property pte Ltd nathan road 91 VIVA fH 11 allgreen properties Ltd suffolk road 235 trilight fH 11 Ho bee investment newton road 152 L’viv* fH 11 Wing tai asia newton road 100 Jalan raja udang/ the arte fH 12 City developments Ltd 336 Jalan datoh the mezzo fH 12 soilbuild group balestier road 82 silversea* 99-year 15 far east organization amber road 383 residential development 99-year 18 kheng Leong / uoL simei st 4 645 the Cascadia fH 21 allgreen properties Ltd bukit timah road 536 residential development 99-year 22 frasers Centrepoint Homes Lakeside drive 712 * Projects currently under preview. Source: Knight Frank Research Outlook Number of Residential Transactions (2008) going forward, it is projected that the price and rental decline is likely to Primary Sales Secondary Sales persist. it is estimated that for the entire 2008, private residential prices will Month-on-month Month-on-month see growth between 0% to -3% year-on-year (yoy). With the slowdown in the Month Number Number private residential market, it is anticipated that primary market launches will % Change % Change fall within the range of 7,200 – 7,900 units while primary market sales could possibly register between 4,900 – 5,400 units in 2008, which would be only Jun 2,058 223 8,147 7 about one-third of the primary market sales in the previous year. Jul 457 -78 6,976 -15 aug 216 -53 5,068 -27 Hong Kong sep 917 325 5,158 2 Market Overview oct 382 -58 3,688 -28 the deepening global financial crisis spilled over into Hong kong’s real economy and property market over the past few months. Chain stores Source: Knight Frank and Land Registry including u-right, tai Lin radio service and krispy kreme doughnuts were forced to close their doors amid slowing consumer demand. a number of Price & Rentals small investors incurred great losses from their investment in Lehman brothers mini-bonds. a huge amount of wealth evaporated in the stock While prospective homebuyers avoided the residential property market, market, with the Hang seng index dropping 18% over the third quarter and sellers were willing to offer their residential properties at good discounts. 22% in october. after falling 4.3% in september and 8.0% in the third quarter, the average luxury residential price plummeted by 23% in october, with financially Demand & Supply strapped investors rushing to exit the market. an increasing number of would-be homebuyers forfeited their deposits House 17 of severn 8 on the peak was reportedly sold for about Hk$80 and walked away from uncompleted deals towards the end of 3Q 2008, million, just around half the price for a similar house transacted early this with declining home prices and commercial banks’ conservative attitude year.