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Residential Market Analysis for Downtown Hillsboro,Oregon

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Residential Market Analysis for Downtown Hillsboro,Oregon RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS FOR DOWNTOWN HILLSBORO, OREGON JUNE 30, 2017 NORTHERN NEIGHBORHOODS MAIN STREET/ AUTO-ORIENTED HEALTH & EDUCATION RETAIL DISTRICT BASELINE/OAK COMMERCIAL EAST DOWNTOWN SOUTHEAST SOUTHWEST NEIGHBORHOODS INDUSTRIAL AREA TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 1 II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 1 Context ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Market Trends ........................................................................................................................................ 3 Economic Characteristics of Residential Development ........................................................................... 9 Block 67 Implications ............................................................................................................................ 11 III. CONTEXT ........................................................................................................................................... 12 A. PREVIOUS PLANNING EFFORTS ............................................................................................................. 12 IV. STUDY AREA OVERVIEW .................................................................................................................... 13 Area One: Main Street/Health & Education Districts ........................................................................... 14 Area Two: Baseline/Oak Commercial Corridor ..................................................................................... 14 Area Three: East Downtown ................................................................................................................. 14 Area Four: Auto-Oriented Retail District ............................................................................................... 15 Area Five: Southwest Industrial Area .................................................................................................... 15 Area Six: Southeast Neighborhoods ..................................................................................................... 15 A. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ..................................................................................................................... 16 B. COMMUTE PATTERNS ............................................................................................................................ 18 V. RESIDENTIAL MARKET CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ............................................................................. 19 A. RENTAL APARTMENT MARKET ............................................................................................................. 19 Regional Trends .................................................................................................................................... 19 Hillsboro Market ................................................................................................................................... 23 Comparable Projects ............................................................................................................................ 27 B. AFFORDABLE HOUSING .......................................................................................................................... 32 Regional Trends .................................................................................................................................... 32 Hillsboro Market ................................................................................................................................... 34 Comparable Projects ............................................................................................................................ 35 C. OWNERSHIP RESIDENTIAL ....................................................................................................................... 37 Regional Trends .................................................................................................................................... 37 Hillsboro Market ................................................................................................................................... 40 Comparable Projects ............................................................................................................................ 43 D. SENIOR HOUSING .............................................................................................................................. 46 Senior Housing Market Trends ............................................................................................................. 46 Regional Context .................................................................................................................................. 48 Hillsboro Market ................................................................................................................................... 51 Comparable Projects ............................................................................................................................ 51 E. STUDENT HOUSING ............................................................................................................................... 54 Comparable Projects ............................................................................................................................ 55 VI. RESIDENTIAL DEMAND ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................... 57 A. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ............................................................................................... 57 Employment Growth and Unemployment ............................................................................................ 57 Income and Population ........................................................................................................................ 58 B. DEMAND ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................... 61 Demographic Profile of the Market ...................................................................................................... 61 Rental and Ownership Residential Demand ......................................................................................... 62 Senior Housing Demand ....................................................................................................................... 67 Affordable and Student Housing Demand ............................................................................................ 69 VII. FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS ........................................................................................................... 70 A. ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT .................................................................. 70 Rental Apartments and Student Housing ............................................................................................. 71 Affordable housing ............................................................................................................................... 73 Ownership Housing .............................................................................................................................. 74 Senior Housing ..................................................................................................................................... 75 VIII. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS ................................................................................................................... 77 CITY OF HILLSBORO/DOWNTOWN RESIDENTIAL NEEDS ANALYSIS PAGE ii I. INTRODUCTION This report summarizes the demand for future housing development within the City of Hillsboro’s downtown core. The analysis includes an assessment of projected demand by product type and price range, as well as an assessment of market context and achievable pricing. The analysis is segmented into five major housing types: ▪ Market rate rental apartments; ▪ Affordable rental apartments; ▪ Ownership housing; ▪ Student housing; and ▪ Senior housing In addition to product type, specific submarkets within the broader study area are evaluated in terms of their suitability for alternative housing types. Residential demand is projected based on local and regional economic and demographic trends, including the age and income composition of current and projected households. Achievable pricing for new product is derived from current pricing at comparable projects, adjusted for locations within the downtown core. In addition, the financial viability of alternative development forms is evaluated considering the findings of the study. II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTEXT The City of Hillsboro has completed a significant level of work that addresses downtown housing, including the Downtown Framework Plan, Urban Renewal Plan, and an Urban Land Institute Technical Advisory Panel recommendations. The findings of these reports are supportive of policies and actions to encourage urban housing developments in the downtown area. The following is a summary of key recommendations from these studies: ▪ Support and encourage new higher-density mixed-use growth near the Tuality/Pacific Health and Education campus.
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