“I will tell the story as I go along of small cities no less than of great. Most of those that were great once are small today; and those which in my own lifetime have grown to greatness, were small enough in the old days.” -- HerodotusHerodotus (The introductory quote in Jacobs, 1969) UrbanisationUrbanisation inin BangaloreBangalore
H. S. Sudhira OverviewOverview
z What is Urbanisation? z Looking at Cities as Complex Social Systems z Bangalore z An Overview of the City z Analysing Change for Bangalore City z Development Characteristics across Bangalore z Policies, Planning and Programs z Points to ponder WhatWhat isis Urbanisation?Urbanisation?
z Evolution of Humans against other life forms z Organization of social systems – 3 levels z 1st Level: Hunter – Gatherer z 2nd Level: Initial Settlements – River Valleys z 3rd Level: Urban Areas / Towns and Cities z Changing patterns of activity z 1st Level: Hunting, Collection of fruits, etc. z 2nd Level: Agriculture – Growing crops, harvesting… z 3rd Level: Industrialization – Fossil-fuel based TracingTracing HumanHuman EvolutionEvolution WhatWhat isis Urbanisation?Urbanisation?
z 3rd Level – Post Industrialization z Humans colonizing in large settlements z Supported by surplus food made possible by advances in agriculture z Post 18th Century, transformation of human population from largely Rural- Agrarian to Urban-Non-Agrarian z Currently moving towards Urban ~ Service-oriented economies from Industrial and Manufacturing centers WhatWhat isis Urbanization?Urbanization?
z Urbanization characterized by the proportional change in urban to total population z Typically characterized by large scale migration from rural-urban z India is experiencing Urbanization only since last 60 – 70 years z North America and North-Western Europe are 80 % urbanized and no scope for further urbanization z Currently India is urbanizing at 3 – 4 % than avg. population growth of 1 – 2 % z India is about 27.2 % urbanized, while Karnataka is about 34 %; according to 2001 Census WhatWhat isis Urbanization?Urbanization?
z A causal phenomenon of Human Design and Evolutionary Emergence z Human Design & Evolutionary Emergence EvolutionaryEvolutionary EmergenceEmergence && HumanHuman DesignDesign
Photos: Sudhira and BMP EvolutionaryEvolutionary EmergenceEmergence && HumanHuman DesignDesign
Photos: Sudhira EvolutionaryEvolutionary EmergenceEmergence && HumanHuman DesignDesign
Photos: Sudhira CitiesCities asas ComplexComplex SocialSocial SystemsSystems
z Urbanization and Evolutionary Emergence! z Towns and Cities – as forms of Human Social Organization z Towns and Cities depict strange pattern! z Scaling in urban systems – Zipf’s Law z Rank-size of towns and cities fit a power law – depicting hierarchy and urban primacy z Towns and cities of Karnataka and India fit Power law for last 100 years z Essentially Bangalore ranked 1 in population 100 years ago and continues to do so TheThe IdeaIdea ofof EmergenceEmergence
z How systems grow and evolve z Biological Evolution z Cities and Evolution – Urban Evolution z Puzzles!! z Size of a city and rank – correlated! z Popular as Zipf’s law / Pareto law z Size of a city and growth – uncorrelated! z Gibrat’s law z Why? z Historical path dependence and lock in ScalingScaling andand UrbanUrban SystemsSystems
z Evolution of towns and cities since about 8000 years z Persistence of scaling behaviour in urban systems z Are the scaling effects observed in urban systems produced by the hierarchical organization of societies? z Are they emergent properties linked with the historical process of urbanization? z Could they disappear after the end of the urban transition? EmergenceEmergence ofof UrbanUrban SystemsSystems
z Implications from Scaling behaviour z Organization of human societies in structurally similar pattern as observed in different places irrespective of z Geographic boundaries, z Political boundaries and z Political economies z New Towns and Larger Urban Agglomerations EvolutionEvolution ofof TownsTowns andand CitiesCities inin KarnatakaKarnataka
z Dynamics of City-Size Distributions z Verifying for Zipf’s law for Karnataka from 1901 – 2001 z Verifying for Zipf’s law for India – 2001 VerifyingVerifying Zipf’sZipf’s lawlaw asas appliedapplied toto citiescities inin KarnatakaKarnataka forfor 20012001
6,000,000 Rank-Size Power (Rank-Size) 5,000,000 -1.0393 y = 3E+06x 2 R = 0.9396 4,000,000 ) e z i s on (
i 3,000,000 t a opul P
2,000,000
1,000,000
- 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106113120127 134141148155 162169176183 190197204211 218225232
Rank of Cities Zipf’sZipf’s lawlaw asas appliedapplied toto citiescities inin KarnatakaKarnataka 8 Log aRnk vs Logz eSi Log-Population vs Log Rank 7
6
5 n o i t a
4 opul Log P 3
2
1
0 0 4 9 1 2 3 85 11 28 49 57 63 69 74 79 83 86 93 96 99 01 04 06 08 12 14 16 18 21 23 24 26 27 29 31 32 34 35 36 37 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. Log Rank VerifyingVerifying Zipf’sZipf’s lawlaw asas appliedapplied toto citiescities inin IndiaIndia
70,000,000 Total Population Power (Total Population)
60,000,000 -1.2067 y = 6E+07x 2 R = 0.9583 50,000,000
n 40,000,000 o i t a opul
P 30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0 1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100111122133144155166177188199210221232243254265276 287298309320331342353364375 Rank Zipf’sZipf’s lawlaw asas appliedapplied toto citiescities inin IndiaIndia
8 Log Rank vs Log Population
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 0 1 2 1 3 4 5 8 5 7 6 4 1 6 1 6 4 7 3 6 9 1 4 6 8 2 4 5 7 9 2 3 5 6 7 9 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 2 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. EvolutionEvolution ofof TownsTowns andand CitiesCities inin KarnatakaKarnataka fromfrom 19011901 -- 20012001
7 log-pop-1901 Evolution of Towns and Cities log-pop-1911 6.5 log-pop-1921 log-pop-1931 6 log-pop-1941 log-pop-1951 5.5 log-pop-1961 on i
t log-pop-1971 a 5 l u log-pop-1981 p o P 4.5 log-pop-1991 g-
Lo log-pop-2001
4
3.5
3
2.5
0 9 3 8 5 7 8 6 9 9 4 2 1 7 5 7 1 2 5 8 0 1 27 9 25 8 49 1 83 4 8 78 52 5 8 1 37 48 9 1 17 1 67 2 1 36 62 0 2 65 25 8 3 3 0 6 89 5 9 0 7 1 6 5 8 1 3 8 4 09 42 3 4 9 87 06 2 0 41 3 0 18 2 2 33 8 5 45 75 6 2 45 18 .90 62 6 6 .8 1 378 563 5 380 710 9 09 7 446 9 65 0 76 42 .4 5 33 1. 55 1 5 92 29 6 9 2 53 79 0 2 4 70 90 .2 2 45 62 78 9 0 24 38 52 .3 .1 3 1 .5 .6 7 .8 .8 .9 9 .9 .0 .0 .0 1 .1 .1 .1 1 2 .2 .2 .2 2 2 .3 .3 3 3 2 1 1. 1 1 1. 1 1 1 1. 1 2 2 2 2. 2 2 2 2. 2 2 2 2. 2. 2 2 2. 2.
Log-Rank EvolutionEvolution ofof αα parameterparameter fromfrom 19011901 -- 20012001
Evolution of alpha parameter alpha 1.1
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
0.85
0.8 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 EvolutionEvolution ofof αα parameterparameter
2 Year α (alpha) R Pk P1 1901 0.8307 0.9341 177976 163091 1911 0.8455 0.9212 181396 189485 1921 0.8503 0.9491 209419 240054 1931 0.8456 0.9562 243477 309785 1941 0.8838 0.9528 333558 410967 1951 0.8719 0.9669 462989 786343 1961 0.8973 0.9651 619737 1206961 1971 0.9199 0.9441 895520 1664208 1981 0.9306 0.9801 1294733 2921751 1991 0.9628 0.9784 1812023 4130288 2001 1.0393 0.9396 3002970 5686844 PatternsPatterns inin UrbanUrban SystemsSystems
z In the case of urban systems, scaling effects could be studied by relating either cities population size, their occupied surface, density of activities, speed of transports, income levels and/or accessibility in transportation systems... z To consider the question of urban spatial expansion at two scales of analysis, trying to understand two contrasting processes: z at the level of the city, slower growth in surface than in population, increasing urban densities, then rapid urban sprawl with a larger increase in surface than in population during the last decades, inside a general model of spatial distribution characterized by a rather steep but recently decreasing density gradient from the centre to the periphery; and z growth in size and number of cities but with increasing size inequalities (and local concentrations) at the scale of the interurban processes (national or regional territories) PatternsPatterns inin UrbanUrban SystemsSystems
z In both cases, the controlling parameters could be the means of transportation, with varying speeds over time, and their typical spatial range that is different when adapting to the daily urban system or to the connection within networks of cities z But perhaps other social (economic) or physical processes have to be included to provide a consistent model at both scales BendakaaluruBendakaaluru -- BangaloreBangalore -- BengalooruBengalooru
Courtesy: Google Inc. and HyperCam Bangalore:Bangalore: AnAn overviewoverview ofof thethe CityCity
z Origins and History z Etymology and Historical Accounts z Climate, Geography and Environment z Growth in Bangalore z Governance and Administration z City Economy and Land use z Mobility z Land use and Transportation z Development Characteristics across Bangalore GROWTH OF BANGALORE CITY
Maps: Directorate of Census Operations and BMP BangaloreBangalore CityCity CorporationCorporation limitslimits overover thethe yearsyears
Sl. Year Area (sq. km) No. 1. 1949 69 2. 1963-64 112 3. 1969 134 4. 1979 161 5. 1995 226 6. 2006 696 PopulationPopulation Growth…Growth…
Population Growth of Bangalore City during 1871 - 2005
7,000,000 Population 6,000,000
5,000,000
on 4,000,000 i t a
3,000,000 Popul
2,000,000
1,000,000
- 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2005 Year Climate,Climate, GeographyGeography andand EnvironmentEnvironment
z 12 – 35º C z 12.59º N and 77.57º E z 875 m to 940 m above msl – Undulating terrain z Ridge dividing 3 watersheds z Strengthened by Chain of Tanks z As per recent satellite imagery, only 34 lakes are visible, out of which only about 18 exist in some shape while another 20 show some signs of existence z Green spaces harbouring Flora and Fauna z Most recently, Bangalore also witnessed a new ‘ant’ species, Dilobocondyla bangalorica, described from the city (Varghese, 2006) BangaloreBangalore LakesLakes
Sudhira, 2006. Bangalore Lakes, Wayfaring Map. Available Online: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/19613 BangaloreBangalore
z Governance and Administration z Multitude of organisations – coordination and changing mandates z Common Geographic Unit / Boundary z Hence no information to interpret across domains z City Economy and Land Use z Core City Functions – Jobs z Moving jobs on the periphery – inducing mobility to the outskirts z Inputs for City: Water, Energy, Labour, Food, Work z What can Bangalore say as its own? InstitutionalInstitutional DynamicsDynamics No. Organisations Functional Areas (Scope of Work) Urban local body responsible for overall delivery of services - Roads and road maintenance including asphalting, pavements and street lighting; solid 1 Bangalore Mahanagara Palike (BMP) waste management, education and health in all wards, storm water drains, construction of few Ring roads, flyovers and grade separators
Land use zoning, planning and regulation within Bangalore Metropolitan 2 Bangalore Development Authority (BDA) Area; Construction of few Ring roads, flyovers and grade separators
Planning, co-ordinating and supervising the proper and orderly development of the areas within the Bangalore Metropolitan Region, which Bangalore Metropolitan Region Development 3 comprises Bangalore urban district, Bangalore rural district and Malur Authority (BMRDA) taluk of Kolar district. BDA’s boundary is a subset of BMRDA’s boundary
Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board Drinking water – pumping and distribution, sewerage collection, water and 4 (BWSSB) waste water treatment and disposal Enforcement of overall law and order; 5 Bangalore City Police Traffic Police: Manning of traffic islands; Enforcement of traffic laws; Regulation on Right of Ways (One-ways) Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation Public transport system – Bus-based 6 (BMTC) Public transport system – Rail-based (Proposed) 7 Bangalore Metro Rail Corporation Ltd (BMRC)
8 Regional Transport Office (RTO) Motor vehicle tax; Issue of licenses to vehicles Responsible for power distribution 9 Bangalore Electricity Supply Company (BESCOM)
10 Lake Development Authority (LDA) Regeneration and conservation of lakes in Bangalore urban district CityCity EconomyEconomy andand LandLand UseUse
Bangalore FCC IRS LISS-III - 1999 Bangalore FCC ASTER - 2003
BangaloreBangalore andand MobilityMobility
z Mobility z Systems Analysis for Mobility z Presence of Braess Paradox for transportation networks z Stakeholders involved z Multitude of organisations and no information z Systems Analysis – Systems Thinking z Represented by Causal Loop Diagrams CausalCausal LoopLoop DiagramDiagram forfor MobilityMobility
Road Widening / + Other Construction + B1 Road Capacity Pressure to Capacity Reduce Expansion Congestion R1 - - + Desired Travel Outgrowth Travel Time Time of City +
- + B2 + - Extent of City within - Traffic Volume Attractiveness Adequacy of Desired Travel Time + Discretionary + of Driving Public Transport + + Trips Trips per day + B3 - Public Transit Take Public + Extra Travel Fare Population and Transport? Public Transit Economic Activity B4 Average Trip Ridership Length + Vehicles in the Vehicles per Region Person - + + CorridorCorridor developmentdevelopment inin lightlight ofof BRAESSBRAESS ParadoxParadox
z Originally presented by Braess in 1968. z It consists of a phenomenon which contradicts the common sense: z in a congested traffic network, when a new link connecting two points (e.g. origin and destination) is constructed, z it is possible that there is no reduction regarding the time necessary to commute from the origin to the destination. z Actually, frequently this time increases and so the costs for the commuters BMPBMP MasterMaster PlanPlan forfor TransportationTransportation NetworksNetworks LandLand UseUse andand TransportationTransportation
z Changing land use patterns… out growth of urban areas z The percentage of parks and open spaces including lakes and tanks is around 2.5 to 3 % down from 4.4 % in 2002 z The built-up was 16 % in 2000 and is currently estimated to be around 23-24 % z Creation of ring road – Sinks of sprawl z Legitimizing/demarcating the extent of outgrowth MigrationMigration asas aa factorfactor forfor UrbanUrban GrowthGrowth
z Why Migration? z Livelihood z Irregular rainfall and failing crops z Decision to Migrate, if z Expected real income in Urban > Expected real income in Rural z Probability of finding a job in Urban > 0 MigrationMigration asas aa factorfactor forfor UrbanUrban GrowthGrowth
z Analysis of Migration in Bangalore Urban Agglomeration: z Place of last residence z In Karnataka or outside Karnataka z In Rural or Urban z Reason for Migration z Work / Employment z Moved with household z Moved after birth z Education z Marriage z Business z Others z Duration of Residence z Less than one year z 1 – 5 years z 5 – 9 years z Greater than 10 years MigrantsMigrants inin allall DurationDuration ofof ResidenceResidence andand thethe ReasonsReasons forfor MigrationMigration
Work/employment Persons 600,000 All Urban Rural 500,000
Others Persons 400,000 Business Persons
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Moved with household Persons Education Persons
Moved after birth Persons Marriage Persons Migrants,Migrants, theirtheir placeplace ofof residenceresidence andand reasonreason forfor migrationmigration –– allall durationsdurations Last Residence elsewhere in India - Rural Last Residence elsewhere in India - Urban Within the state of enumeration but outside the place - Rural Work/employment States in India beyond the state of enumeration - Urban 350,000 Within the state of enumeration but outside the place - Urban States in India beyond the state of enumeration - Rural
300,000
250,000 Others Business 200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Moved with household Education
Moved after birth Marriage Migrants,Migrants, theirtheir placeplace ofof residenceresidence andand reasonreason forfor migrationmigration –– 10+10+ yearsyears Last Residence elsewhere in India - Rural Last Residence elsewhere in India - Urban Within the state of enumeration but outside the place - Rural Work/employment States in India beyond the state of enumeration - Urban Within the state of enumeration but outside the place - Urban 180,000 States in India beyond the state of enumeration - Rural 160,000
140,000
Others 120,000 Business 100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Moved with household Education
Moved after birth Marriage Migrants,Migrants, theirtheir placeplace ofof residenceresidence andand reasonreason forfor migrationmigration –– 55--99 yearsyears
Last Residence elsewhere in India - Rural Last Residence elsewhere in India - Urban Work/employment Within the state of enumeration but outside the place - Rural 70,000 States in India beyond the state of enumeration - Urban Within the state of enumeration but outside the place - Urban States in India beyond the state of enumeration - Rural 60,000
50,000 Others Business 40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Moved with household Education
Moved after birth Marriage Migrants,Migrants, theirtheir placeplace ofof residenceresidence andand reasonreason forfor migrationmigration –– lessless thanthan 11 yearyear
Last Residence elsewhere in India - Rural Last Residence elsewhere in India - Urban Work/employment Within the state of enumeration but outside the place - Rural 8,000 States in India beyond the state of enumeration - Urban Within the state of enumeration but outside the place - Urban States in India beyond the state of enumeration - Rural 7,000
6,000
Others 5,000 Business
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Moved with household Education
Moved after birth Marriage DevelopmentDevelopment CharacteristicsCharacteristics acrossacross BangaloreBangalore
Sl. Development Zones Characteristics No. Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 1. Authority Bangalore City Greater Bangalore City Development Authorities Corporation Corporation (proposed) with and other Town and existing neighbouring urban Village Municipal local bodies Councils 2. Urban Status Core city Outgrowth Potential areas for future outgrowth 3. Infrastructure Present, but nearly Not fully present, with new Farmlands and scattered Services choked, needs growth, requires planning settlements with minimal augmenting of existing and augmentation of no infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure 4. Impact of growth No scope for new High potential for growth, Mostly rural, with minimal growth but calls for since already peri-urban growth currently, but urban renewal to ease area and emergence of potential for future congestion new residential layouts and growth other developments 5. Planning, Planning not vested Planning not vested with Planning vested with Development and with urban local bodies, urban local bodies, minimal parastatal agencies: Regulation while local bodies regulation on construction BDA and BMRDA and Controls control for building not other local bodies, no regulations regulation on building/construction Policies,Policies, PlanningPlanning andand ProgramsPrograms
z Policies and Planning z Information & Indicators z Dynamics and Models z Evaluation of Policies z Capturing the multitude of processes in urban systems z Programs z State govt. initiatives z JnNURM PlanningPlanning trendstrends
z Multiple Agencies and Plans z Comprehensive Development Plans – BDA z City Development Plans – BMP z Infrastructure Development and Investment Plan – KUIDFC z Comprehensive Traffic and Transportation Plan – Rites z Coordination ? z Planning for Life, with Philosophy, Culture, Tradition, and Resources z Spatial Planning Support Systems ? z Prototype Simulations…
PointsPoints toto ponderponder
z Does evolution of new cities follow any underlying principle? z Does emergence of large cities irrespective of the international / national / regional economic / political boundary follow Zipf’s law? z Alright, if they are following Zipf’s law what do they suggest? z Are urban systems and hence urban evolution self-organizing? z If rank - size distribution is the accepted, what do deviations at the end suggest? PointsPoints toto ponder…ponder…
z Central questions are: z When do we know / ascribe the emergence of new cities? z When do we know / ascribe the decline of large cities z And when does these large cities collapse? (recall Herodotus quote) z Any possible ways to detect at least half- life of these cities? PointsPoints toto ponder…ponder…
z Is Bangalore’s growth self-organizing? z How long will Bangalore retain its rank in Karnataka? z Does ‘planning’ aid in addressing cities at different scales? z Near-to-Short term / Immediate: Requires Operational Planning z Short-to-Medium: 5-10 years z Long-term: 10+ years z What will be the fate of cities beyond the fossil fuel regime? MoreMore Questions,Questions, thanthan Answers!!Answers!! WhereWhere dodo wewe go!?go!?
Thanks very much! Zipf’sZipf’s LawLaw // PowerPower LawLaw
z Originally, Zipf's law stated that, in a corpus of natural language utterances, the frequency of any word is roughly inversely proportional to its rank in the frequency table z So, the most frequent word will occur approximately twice as often as the second most frequent word, which occurs twice as often as the fourth most frequent word, etc z The term has come to be used to refer to any of a family of related power law probability distributions z Zipf's law is most easily observed by scatter plotting the data, with the axes being log (rank order) and log (frequency) z For example, "the" as described above would appear at x = log(1), y = log(69971) z If the points are close to a single straight line, the distribution follows Zipf's law
Source: Wikipedia Zipf’sZipf’s rankrank--sizesize rulerule
z Zipf had expressed such a regularity as an inverse geometric progression between the population Pi of a city and its rank Ri in a national set of towns and cities, giving an approximate size of one half of the largest city population for the population of the second city and one third for the third one, and so on… z This “rank size-rule” formulated as Pi = P1 / Ri has been generalized as a Pareto-type distribution of the number of cities according to their size, z Pi = K / Ri α, z where the parameter K has a value close to P1 and α is around 1