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Tsingtao Brewery Because We Expect CR Beer Albert Yip to Deliver Stronger Adj

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Tsingtao Brewery Because We Expect CR Beer Albert Yip to Deliver Stronger Adj 9 Nov 2020 CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Sector Initiation China Beer and White Wine Sector Leaders to benefit from ASP growth and sector OUTPERFORM (Initiation) consolidation; top picks are Moutai and CR Beer We initiate coverage of China beer and white wine sectors with Outperform rating. China beer and white wine sector Premiumization and production efficiency improvement are key growth drivers of beer sector. We prefer CR Beer to Tsingtao Brewery because we expect CR Beer Albert Yip to deliver stronger adj. EPS CAGR through the partnership with Heineken. High- (852) 3900 0838 end white wine segment has a favorable competitive landscape. Its limited supply [email protected] has supported price appreciation. We prefer Moutai to Wuliangye because we expect Moutai to raise ex-factory price earlier than Wuliangye. China’s premium and super Premiumization and production efficiency improvement are key growth premium beer sales value to grow drivers of beer sector. (1) Premiumization: China’s market share of the at 8.5% CAGR from 2018 to 2023E premium and super premium categories was 16.4% by volume in 2018, which (US$ bn) was significantly lower than the US/Korea (42.1%/25%). Value of premium and 70 super premium categories is estimated to increase by 8.5% CAGR from 2018 60 to 2023E. (2) Production efficiency: Plant closures, optimization of capacity 50 and sales mix increase of canned beer and bottled beer with returnable bottles 40 concept can enhance efficiency. (3) Industry consolidation: We expect sector 30 leaders to lower SG&A expenses ratio suggested by US market history. 20 High-end segment is preferred in white wine sector. There is oversupply 10 0 in low to mid-end as consumers prefer quality to quantity. High quality white 2013 2018 2023E wine, which is an extremely scarce resource (<1% of total prod. vol.), has been Source: GlobalData appreciating. High-end segment has a favorable competitive landscape. Moutai is the unrivalled leader and Moutai and Wuliangye take 80-85% market Large margin upside potential for share in China. Demand of high-end is more resilient than sub high-end amid China’s beer leaders economic downturn. We expect Moutai/Wuliangye could achieve 16%/16% market share (LHS) EBITDA margin (%) (RHS) 100% 50% 95% China Brazil US Japan 90% 45% revenue CAGR in FY19-22E through increases of both volume and ASP. 85% 42.3% 80% 40% 75% 40.8% 70% 66.3% 35% 65% 32.4% Prefer Moutai (600519 CH, Buy) to Wuliangye (000858 CH, Buy). We think 60% 30% 55% 28.9% 25% 50% 37.6% Moutai could lift ex-factory price by 24% to RMB1,199 in 1Q21E given that 45% 42.0% 25.6% 16.9% 14.8% 30.3% 20% 40% 21.5% 14.4% 35% 12.1% 12.9% 15% price spread earned by distributor is much greater than the Company and, 30% 23.2% 23.0% 25% 20.0% 10% 18.4% 20% 14.0% historically, price hike usually happened in first year of FYP and 1Q. We 15% 10.7% 5% 10% 6.1% (Americas) Asahi Yanjing Molson Coors Carlsberg AB AB InBev America) AB InBev Tsingtao CRBeer Bud APAC Kirin 5% Heineken 0% (South (Asia) (West) (US) believe the article written by Central Commission for Discipline Inspection on (US) 22 Sep could not block price hike. We saw Moutai raised price in Jan 2018 though the Commission posted an article in Jul 2017 to alert government Source: Company data, GlobalData, officials’ consumption of high-end wine. Our TP of RMB2,153.30 for Moutai blog.drinktec.com, Reuters, CMBIS estimates represents 46.8x FY21E P/E, at 15% premium on other A-share consumer segment leaders’ average of 40.7x. Above designated size white wine enterprises’ revenue in Prefer CR Beer (291 HK, Buy) to Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK, Buy). We China grew at 11% CAGR in 2016- forecast CR Beer to deliver stronger EPS CAGR than Tsingtao Brewery (19% 19 (RMB bn) vs 14%) in FY19-22E. The partnership with Heineken is a combination of both Revenue of above-scale enterprises (LHS) Reported YoY growth (RHS) 900 40% companies’ strength (Heineken’s international product portfolio + CR Beer’s 850 26.8% 30% 800 nationwide distribution network), which should accelerate CR Beer’s 14.4% 20% 750 11.2% 10.1% 12.9% 4.8% 8.2% premiumization. Heineken brand recorded outstanding double-digit volume 700 5.2% 10% 650 612.6 0% growth in 1H20 amid epidemic. We estimate Heineken China’s utilization rate 600 565.4 561.8 555.9 536.4 -10% 550 501.8 525.9 was low at ~28% in 2018. The strong sales growth post partnership should 500 -20% 446.6 450 -30% notably improve GPM and profitability. Our TP of CR Beer at HK$61.90 is 400 -40% based on 46.0x FY21E adj. P/E, at the high-end of historical P/E band. 350 2013 2014 2015 2018 2019 2016 2017 300 2012 -50% Valuation Table Mkt Cap Price TP Upside P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Source: National Statistics Bureau Name Ticker Rating (LC bn) (LC) (LC) (%) FY20E FY21E FY20E FY20E CR Beer 291 HK Buy 158 48.85 61.90 27 48.5 36.3 6.5 14.0 Tsingtao – H 168 HK Buy 106 62.40 78.10 25 33.7 28.7 3.6 11.1 Tsingtao – A 600600 CH Hold 93 80.61 78.70 (2) 49.3 42.0 5.3 11.1 Moutai 600519 CH Buy 2,136 1,700.62 2,153.30 27 46.9 37.4 12.1 31.1 Wulaingye 000858 CH Buy 1,006 259.41 307.80 19 49.2 39.9 10.5 25.5 Source: Company data, CMBIS estimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 1 MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR <GO> AND http://www.cmbi.com.hk 9 Nov 2020 Contents Focus Charts ............................................................................................ 3 Investment Thesis .................................................................................... 4 Valuation ................................................................................................... 8 Overview of China’s beer industry ....................................................... 11 Premiumization level behind Korea and the US ...................................................11 US beer sector history showed huge room for China’s premiumization ..........15 Premiumization and industry consolidation are key EBITDA margin drivers ..18 Margin upside potential for domestic leaders is large ........................................19 Overview of China’s white wine industry ............................................. 21 Accelerating consolidation and increasing profitability .....................................21 High-end segment is more preferred to sub high-end segment ........................24 CR Beer (291 HK) ................................................................................... 25 Focus Charts ............................................................................................................26 Partnership with Heineken to accelerate premiumization ..................................27 Continuing to improve production efficiency .......................................................33 Earnings forecast ....................................................................................................35 Financial Summary ..................................................................................................39 Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK) ................................................................... 40 Focus Charts ............................................................................................................41 Continuing premiumization ....................................................................................42 Restricted share award scheme to incentivize key employees ..........................44 Earnings forecast ....................................................................................................49 Financial Summary ..................................................................................................53 Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) ............................................................. 54 Focus Charts ............................................................................................................55 National wine brand prestige .................................................................................56 Scarcity nature due to tight supply .......................................................................58 Large room to increase ex-factory price ...............................................................61 Channel diversification to enhance growth ..........................................................62 The impact of CCP Central Commission for Discipline Inspection’s article .....64 Earnings forecast ....................................................................................................65 Financial Summary ..................................................................................................70 Wuliangye (000858 CH).......................................................................... 71 Focus Charts ............................................................................................................72 Reform measures aiming at return to the glory days ..........................................74 Channel reform to accelerate sales growth ..........................................................76 Earnings forecast ....................................................................................................78 Financial Summary ..................................................................................................83 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 9 Nov 2020 Focus Charts Figure 1: Above designated size beer enterprises’ Figure 2: Above designated size white wine revenue grew at 5% CAGR from 2016 to
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