fo012010 the Utopia issue FO/futureorientation #1 2010

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Visionary thinking

Orwell Was a Pessimist Nudging utopia

The World According to Fresco Utopian Spaces Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com A vision is to a business as a lighthouse is to a ship at sea – a signpost and a guideline for futu- re direction. A utopia can be roughly the same thing, albeit on quite another scale. A utopia describes a future society that is substantially different from the present. Thus, it distinguishes itself from a vision in its magnitude and in its radical nature

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fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO EDITORIAL Utopia

Utopia comes from Greek. U = ‘no’ + topos = ‘place’, so Nudging is a matter of providing “small, gentle nudges” ‘utopia’ means a non-existing place.1 ”This is utopian,” we in the right direction without making us really notice it. say, meaning that something is farfetched and unrealis­ This is achieved by designing and organizing our sur­ tic. In this way, the concept of utopia has become part of roundings to influence our behaviour in a certain way. It our daily language and influences the way we think. is worth learning about this method regardless of which However, it is worth noting that utopias are not always medium you want to influence behaviour through e.g. unrealistic, nor does the original meaning of the word design. However, as usual, the question remains: What imply they should be. On occasion, they could easily be is the ‘right’ direction? What is the right behaviour? realized, if we could just agree to do so. In his article Here, too, the readers must decide for themselves. For, “The Difference Between Utopias and Visions – and the as with surveillance technologies, it is the intended goal Fear of the Totalitarian Nature of the Utopia”, on page when using nudging that must be debated. 9, Martin Kruse writes about the realistic utopia, and in There is much more about utopias in this issue of FO, particular the origin of the utopia in the history of ideas. which also offers a number of interesting contributi­ Read it to learn more about what a utopia really is. ons outside of the theme. Read, for instance, the first Perhaps the modern interpretation of the word ‘uto­ part of an article series by CIFS’s Nestor, Johan Peter pia’ is to blame when the Renaissance man and futurist Paludan, about future strategy in the present (page 53). Jacque Fresco says in the article on page 15 that he Or read the business philosopher Morten Paustian’s doesn’t want to call his life work, The Venus Project, a article “Visionary Thinking”, page 61, which uses Hans utopia. However, this visionary idea of a future society Christian Andersen’s character Clumsy Hans to take us has many characteristics in common with the utopia. As on a philosophical trip to recreate “the fairy tale in our Nikolina Olsen-Rude points out in her article, page 37, lives”. Happy reading! the word utopia carries a double meaning, since in Greek it can mean both the good place (eutopia) and the non- In conclusion, I can inform you that right now you are existing place (outopia). A good place is precisely what reading the last issue of FO/Futureorientation in its old Fresco has devoted his life to describing and fighting form. We are on the street again in May with a big dou­ for. Read more about his ideas in the article and see the ble issue (#2-3), marking the shift to a brand new FO. futuristic photos of the project that Fresco and his wife, Among other things, the magazine will get a new design, Roxanne Meadows, have kindly allowed us to print. and we will move from publishing thematic issues to The flip side of the utopia is the dystopia. One of the writing about different themes and subjects in each best-known fictional dystopias is the classic George issue under the headings Orwell novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, written in 1948. Klaus Æ. Mogensen deals with this novel in two articles DEVELOPMENT · VISIONS · IDEAS · TRENDS. in this FO, ”Orwell Was a Pessimist” and ”Orwell Was an Optimist”. As the sharp reader may have figured out, I am looking forward to presenting you with the new you can – depending on your viewpoint – argue that our format. present-day society is both far better and far worse than the future society Orwell describes in his book. Has the Morten Grønborg, nightmare of Big Brother from the novel become a rea­ Editor lity today? Has the surveillance society won? Read the articles and decide for yourself. The relationship between utopias and dystopias is inte­ resting. What is a paradise to some will be hell to others. History has taught us that people are simply different and that we can’t formulate a single, universal idea of ‘the good society’ or ‘the good life’ that will satidfy every­ body. It is hence interesting when the three philosophers Kyle Whyte, Evan Selinger and Søren Riis, the latter an associated researcher at CIFS, discuss the phenomenon notes of nudging in their article Nudging Utopia (page 29). 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utopia

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 5 contents

ThEMe: UTOPIa

editorial characterized by complex structures and globalization, it is easier to by morten grønborg...... 5 speak of individual responsibility than of a common dream, which we all must struggle to realize The Difference Between Utopias and Visions – and the Fear of the Totalitarian Nature of the Utopia Utopians - our closest colleagues? by Martin Kruse...... 9 by Johan Peter Paludan...... 46 What is the difference between a utopia and a vision? What is the origin of the utopia in the history of ideas? And what role does futures studies play in it all? Take the time to read Martin Kruse’s outside of theme: article and get wiser Nine trends and nine inventions that will shape The World According to Fresco the face of the 21st century by morten grønborg...... 15 by Marcel Bullinga...... 49 With The Venus Project, 93-year-old Jacque Fresco, a multi-discipli- Nine trends and nine inventions will shape the face of the 21st cen- narian and futurist, has created an all-encompassing alternative to tury. They will have a similar impact on our lives as the car, the TV the society we live in today. Fresco recently visited Copenhagen as and the airplane had on the lives of our parents. Take a sneak peak part of the event COP Kreativ, where he talked about designing the at Marcel Bullingas upcoming book Futurecheck future. If you weren’t near Copenhagen, or if you happened to miss his lecture, you can read here about his ideas of how we can create Future Strategy in the Present – Part 1 a better world by Johan Peter Paludan...... 53 The historian and the futurist can be said to study two sides of the Orwell Was an Optimist same matter, specifically the present, writes Johan Peter Paludan in by Klaus Æ Mogensen:...... 20 this first article about the phenomenon of futures studies and its role “Big Brother is watching.” This is how George Orwell described in organizational and strategic planning the surveillance society in Nineteen Eighty-Four. The novel depicts a dystopian society where the state closely watches everyone and Visionary thinking strikes down hard on any activity that can be viewed as subversive. – A philosophical trip with Clumsy Hans ‘Big Brother’ often shows up as a grim spectre in contemporary by Morten Paustian...... 61 debates about surveillance, but reality is actually surpassing fiction: Thoughts aren’t just isolated in the human skull, but contain im- We are under surveillance everywhere, often without being aware of pulses with ideas that fly around among other people. The thoughts it, and the information collected about us is kept for years and may vibrate out in the world and attempt to guide people forward to be used against us. Hence, Orwell could be seen as an optimist each other, so that encounters and events can become inspiring transactions Orwell Was a Pessimist by Klaus Æ Mogensen:...... 24 “Big Brother is watching.” This is how George Orwell described FO/futureorientation is published by Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies the surveillance society in Nineteen Eighty-Four. The novel depicts (CIFS), Norre Farimagsgade 65, DK-1364 Copenhagen K. Tel. +45 3311 a dystopian society where the state closely watches everyone and 7176, [email protected], www.cifs.dk, www.fo-online.dk strikes down hard on any activity that can be viewed as subversive. Editor: Morten Grønborg (responsible under Danish press law), [email protected] ‘Big Brother’ often shows up as a grim spectre in contemporary International Editor: Klaus Æ. Mogensen, [email protected] debates about surveillance, but reality isn’t as bad as the fiction: We Secretariat: Ellen Mauri, [email protected] may be watched everywhere, but we can remain calm, because the English adaptation: Klaus Æ. Mogensen, [email protected] surveillance is there to protect us. Orwell was a pessimist layout: Karina Bjerregaard ILLUSTRATIons: Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Nudging Utopia COVER: Portrait of Jacque Fresco. www.thevenusproject.com and Karina by Søren Riis...... 29 Bjerregaard The Nudge technology can lead to better design, more desirable behaviour and a better world … all without your noticing it. The Subscription 2010: 270 EURO plus shipping (20 EURO in Europe and 30 EURO in the rest of the world). The price includes two printed copies and method is based on the fact that human beings are far less rational online access. Published six times a year. and intelligent than we like to think. Hence, we can benefit from Circulation: 4500 small, gentle, imperceptible nudges in the right direction ISSN: 1901-452X online ISSN: 1903-8194

Utopian Spaces Member of Danske Specialmedier (Danish Trade Press Association). The by Nikolina Olsen-Rule...... 37 opinions expressed. in articles are those of the authors. Textual contents may In order to understand the more philosophical ideas behind the uto- be republished as long as the original author and publication are cited. pia phenomenon, a more concrete approach may be necessary. For this purpose, a society’s physical organization is an obvious thing to Printed by: ATM Arktryk watch. Take a look at three perfect cities Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) is an independent research organization founded in 1970 by professor Thorkil Kristensen, a former OECD Faith in the Future in a World of Dystopias Secretary-General. CIFS analyzes the trends that shape the future. CIFS by Sara Jönsson...... 43 examines the present and the future, and publishes what it finds. CIFS is a Utopias are big words and thoughts. But in a world increasingly non-profit association with 100 members.

6 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com By Martin Kruse The Difference Between Utopias and Visions – and the Fear of the Totalitarian Nature of the Utopia

What is the difference between a utopia and a vi­ sion? What is the origin of the utopia in the history of ideas? And what role does futures studies play in it all? Take the time to read Martin Kruse’s article and get wiser

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u In the sociologist Anthony Giddens’ most recent book, laws, predict the future (prévision rationelle). Comte’s The Politics of Climate Change (2009), Giddens focuses desire was to transfer the positivist approach from natu­ on the realistic utopia as a method to change the world. ral science to sociology. Modern simulations and data From a different perspective, a wide range of current models of societal economy are rooted in this conviction. management books stress the importance of visions. A vision is to a business as a lighthouse is to a ship at sea – Karl vs. Karl a signpost and a guideline for future direction. A utopia In his book The Open Society and its Enemies, published can be roughly the same thing, albeit on quite another in 1945, the philosopher of science Karl Popper (1902- scale. A utopia describes a future society that is substan­ 1994) attacks the idea of progress as it manifested itself tially different from the present. Thus, it distinguishes from the Age of Enlightenment forward. The criticism is itself from a vision in its magnitude and in its radical directed mainly at the idea of Utopia and in particular at nature. Historically, the utopia is intimately connected Karl Marx. to the understanding of progress and hence to historical Popper’s main argument is that the idea of progress, as research, sociological history, and normative futures manifest in Marx and others, has totalitarian elements. studies. The book is a defence of liberal democracy and contri­ The idea of an ideal society has taken different shapes buted to a debate that was central in the post-War years. through the ages and has been used for different pur­ Popper’s criticism of deterministic holism, which charac­ poses. When Thomas More (1477-1535) wrote his book terizes the macro-historical view often termed historicism, Utopia, it was – as so many other works of the time were is closely tied to his contempt for the anti-democratic – a way to bypass censorship and a way to criticize those form of government, of which he sees Communism as in power. one example. The original description of Utopia differs from the Popper’s criticism of historicism must hence be viewed descriptions of Elysium and Eden in the Greek and the in light of the totalitarian form of government, which Christian-Judean traditions, respectively, by placing the during his time was seen as a threat by many, particu­ ideal society on Earth, but at the same time making it a larly by Popper himself. Popper viewed the idea of a non-existent place. In many of the descriptions that follo­ Communist future, in which the world population is wed, the realistic Utopia is described as the end point of unified in an equal community, and in which the means history – a tradition in the history of ideas of which the of production is common property, simply as a propagan­ American writer Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History dist attempt to control the populace. and the Last Man is a part. Popper’s distinction between the concepts of holistic The idea of Utopia is thus also connected with changes social engineering and piecemeal social engineering in the understanding of progress; in particular phase expresses the ideological difference between change studies, which explain the linear progression from a bar­ brought about in totalitarian and democratic forms of baric phase to a developed society: a viewpoint that has government respectively. At the same time, it expresses dominated historic understanding up to our time. the difference between visions and realistic utopias on Plato, Aristotle and Protagoras all viewed progress as a the one hand, and the utopias that lead to totalitarianism gradual development towards a higher, final state. In the and oppression on the other hand. Christian tradition, the Greek and the Judean traditions Holistic social engineering aims to transform soci­ are united, and the medieval thinkers Roger Bacon (1215- ety as a whole. The goal is to realize what is seen as a 1294) and Bernard de Chartres (1130-1160) thus see pro­ realistic utopia. Clear parallels can be drawn with the gress as an accumulative gathering of knowledge leading Chinese Cultural Revolution. Sartre’s lectures from his to Utopia. later period also express a desire for such a change in With the Age on Enlightenment, this final stage is society. Unfortunately, some of Sartre’s students took his changed. For Auguste Comte (1798-1857), who can be ideological outbursts seriously and went to Cambodia seen as the father of sociology, the final stage is under­ with their newly gained ideology. More than one million stood as the world entering a state of true positivism, in people were killed in Cambodia in the attempt to achieve which rationalism is consummated and a society based a particular societal model. According to Popper, it is on principles of natural science can be realized. unrealistic to think that an entire society can be recon­ Like John Stuart Mill (1806-1873), Comte sees progress structed according to pre-made plans. Such an attempt as an absolute trend, which according to Mill is anchored cannot be made without an ideological basis, which in the human drive to vie for greater material wealth. necessarily seems oppressive to people with a different Comte’s positivist position is founded in his conviction view. that one can, with a basis in the past and through general

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The realistic Utopia is described as the end point of history – a tradition in the history of ideas of which the American writer Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History and the Last Man is a part

A vision is to a business as a lighthouse is to a ship at sea – a signpost and a guideline for future direction

Hence, Popper concludes that this kind of utopian­ in France. The method was (and is) used in planning edu­ ism is a societal viewpoint that naturally leads to cation, the environment, urbanization, regional planning, totalitarianism1. and more. Instead, Popper advocates what he calls piecemeal The basic premise of the French tradition is that a social engineering - a concept that denotes a gradual so­ciety consists of powerful actors in groups with diffe­ development of society. This means that one ought rent motives, who influence each other and the political to establish visions for particular areas of the existing process in society. When politicians must consider the society and work to achieve these visions – rather than long-term political and social future of a nation, the lob­ overthrowing the entire social structure. Piecemeal social bying and general influence of these actors can become engineering is the goal that we in futures studies aim decisive for the nation’s future. to achieve through formulating and realizing normative The famous futurist Bertrand de Jouvenel (1903-1987) scenarios. hence thought it important to create ideal images or realistic utopias for the nation’s future and show a way Normative futures studies to reach these futures, which could improve life for the Unlike explorative scenarios, normative scenarios don’t nation’s populace as a whole, not just for a few powerful ask the question “what could happen?” but rather the interest groups. question “how do we achieve our goal?” The COP15 The French tradition is thus characterized by succes­ negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 were an sfully using the realistic utopia for society as a whole example of this. Here, the world’s nations gathered to while conducting piecemeal social engineering. Somewhat agree on a climate treaty. caricatured we can say that, where the futurist tradi­ Normative scenarios are strategic. Futures studies in tion in the United States has been about optimising a the United States are most commonly used in connection company’s income, the French tradition is about handling with strategic development of companies, helping to find the influence of organizations in a way that benefits the new markets or assess the risks of company strategy. In entire population. Hence, these traditions in futures stu­ contrast, the French futurist tradition in particular has dies echo the ideological differences between Capitalist traditionally been strongest within politics, where the and Social Democratic social structures. systematic study of future political scenarios is common­ Realistic utopias are important, as Giddens point out, ly used. because they express as possible what would otherwise In this sense, the French tradition comes closest to seem impossible within the framework of current prac­ what Popper criticizes as anti-democratic. Since the 4th tice. The International Energy Agency’s scenario Bright French National Plan was constructed for the years 1960- Skies is an example of a future vision that points the 1965, the normative method has spread2, not least becau­ way towards something that is possible, though unlikely. se of Pierre Masse, who led national economic planning Great visions, however unlikely, are a strong driving

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Instead, Popper advocates what he calls piecemeal social engineer­­ ing - a concept that denotes a gra- dual development of society.­ This means that one ought to estab- lish visions for particular areas of the existing society and work to achieve these visions – rather than overthrowing the entire social structure

Realistic utopias are important, as Giddens point out, because they express as possible what would otherwise seem impossible within the frame­work of current practice

force because they are often accompanied by great per­ these brief moments we experience what it means to live sonalities who manage to create faith that the unlikely in Utopia. is possible. For example, the American president Barack Obama has already become a cult figure, and many Martin Kruse has a MA and is employed at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. He works, among other things, with creativity, inno- people believe that he can make a difference. This was vation and methods in futures studies underscored very clearly when he received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 after only nine months as president. I don’t think I will insult anybody by stating that the prize was given to Obama primarily for his intentions rather than his results3. He also divides his critics, just as presi­ dent J.F. Kennedy (1917-1963) did in his time. notes 1 sartre’s discussion with Camus about the sanctity of man as opposed It is when these impossible possibilities are shown to to the necessity of social change stands witness to, among other us that we experience greater community and everyday things, this understanding in the post-War European cultural life. trivialities are reduced to what they are … trivialities. It is 2 bradfield, R. et al: “The Origins and evolution of scenario techniques when a wall falls somewhere in Europe or a man makes in Long Range Business Planning” in Futures Vol. 37, Nr. 8, p. 795- 812, 2005. his first steps on the moon that we experience an entire 3 the official reasons for giving the prize can be read here: http://nobel- world moving together from one epoch to another. In prize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2009/press.html

12 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com By Morten Grønborg The World According to Fresco

With The Venus Project, 93-year-old Jacque Fresco, a multi-disciplinarian and futurist, has created an all-encompassing alternative to the society we live in today. Fresco recently visited Copenhagen as part of the event COP Kreativ, where he talked about de­ signing the future. If you weren’t near Copenhagen, or if you happened to miss his lecture, you can read here about his ideas of how we can create a better world

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The Venus Project presents an alter- native design of our culture. It sug- gests an achievable path to a better future through connecting the latest technological developments directly to the social system. The idea is that through education, research and using what we already know, we can abolish poverty, war, starvation, crime, and even taxes

u There aren’t many alternative, thoroughly conceived utopia. However, according to its creator, it is something societal models left, nor are there many practical idea­ else: lists. The Venus Project and its creator, American Jacque “The Venus Project is not a utopian concept,” Jacque Fresco (1916-) are examples of both. Fresco clarifies1. “We do not believe in the erroneous The Venus Project is at once futuristic architecture, notion of a utopian society. There is no such thing. technological futures studies, a sociological project, and Societies are always in a state of transition. We propose an all-encompassing model of how we can improve the an alternative direction, which addresses the causes of world on many levels, in particular the economy and the many of our problems. There are no final frontiers for environment. It is the brainchild of multi-disciplinarian human and technological achievement.” and futurist Jacque Fresco – who is now 93 years old – and uses words, images, videos, photos, and architectonic The idea models to describe a potential future. Fresco recently visited Copenhagen as a part of COP The work has been developed by Fresco himself Kreativ2, a climate event for Danish design and architec­ together with his wife, Roxanne Meadows, and a large ture students, where he talked about designing the futu­ number of volunteers worldwide. It is a life’s work in the re. If you weren’t near Copenhagen, or if you happened true sense of the word – a work that both has been the to miss his lecture3, you missed his explanation of what centre of the creator’s life and has taken most of a life­ the Venus Project is really about. time to realize. At the same time, the word gesamtkunst- Is the project architecture? Design? Politics? werk is appropriate, for just like Arne Jacobsen – who, Sustainability? Economy? The answer is: all of the among other things, designed SAS Royal Hotel in above! Copenhagen from its exterior shape down to details like The Venus Project presents an alternative design of door handles, chests of drawers, and coffee spoons (as our culture. It suggests an achievable path to a bet­ well as the famous chair the Swan) – Fresco has thought ter future through connecting the latest technological about everything. developments directly to the social system. The idea The Venus Project is a single, unified idea for a better is that through education, research and using what we world and hence very close to what we normally call a already know, we can abolish poverty, war, starvation, crime, and even taxes.

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There is no place to hide today,” Jacque Fresco says, ”because you can’t hide from human insta- bility. War, weapons, corruption seem to domina- te everywhere. Our primary goal, and our primary reason for the project, is to make these things belong to the past.

”There is no place to hide today,” Jacque Fresco says, began a life-long quest resulting in the conclusions and in good accordance with the Institute’s ideas about No designs presented in The Venus Project.”5 Comfort Zones, ”because you can’t hide from human The changing political and economic realities in instability. War, weapons, corruption seem to dominate Fresco’s adult life have not made his project less rele­ everywhere. Our primary goal, and our primary reason vant. Now, in his advanced age, Fresco has faced another for the project, is to make these things belong to the economic mess, namely the global financial crisis, which past.” by several economists has been compared precisely to As stated in one of the many presentation videos about the situation in 1929. However, the financial crisis could the project that you can find on YouTube4, “These goals hardly have surprised Fresco, as for many years he has are not merely a paper proclamation. They can be trans­ criticized the system that produced it. lated into physical reality if, as a society, we choose to do The Venus Project presentation video tells us: “The so. A democracy that doesn’t ensure the basic necessities American free enterprise system does generate incen­ of life is meaningless.” tive. However, it also creates greed, corruption, crime, stress, and economic insecurity The consuming pursuit The economic system is collapsing of money that grips many in our society has a dehuma­ The aim of the Venus Project is first and foremost to nising effect and has led us to our present self-centred ensure social stability, which requires among other things values.” high-quality health services, a clean environment, and Fresco asks rhetorically what would happen if we, for access for all to the amenities that a well-functioning soci­ example, continued to automate production around the ety must provide. world and in doing so got rid of more and more human However, there is no doubt that economics, in particu­ labour. His response is that we very quickly would lar a different economic system, plays a key role in the find ourselves in a situation in which the majority of project. The Venus Project was founded in the 1970’s, Americans, and people everywhere, would lose their but Fresco has repeatedly stated that his upbringing in purchasing power to buy products. the United States after the Great Depression of the 1930’s “So what good is a factory that is turning out all the influenced his social conscience and enabled him later to wheels, if it is making all the cars automatically – who devise his vision: will be around to be able to buy those cars? What will “Living through the 1929 Great Depression helped they use for money? So what happens? Our system dies. shape my social conscience. During this time, I realized The free enterprise system was terrific 50 years ago, the Earth was still the same place, manufacturing plants maybe 30 years ago, but it is no longer adequate. So if an were still intact, and resources were still there, but people automobile factory, or any other factory, goes complet­ didn’t have money to buy the products. I felt the rules of ely automatic, and most people lose their jobs, and they the game we play by were outmoded and damaging. This don’t have the purchasing power, you tell me how the free enterprise system can function. It comes to an end.

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Jacque Fresco Jacque Fresco (1916-) is a self-taught industrial designer, writer, futu- rist, and educator, and he is the founder of The Venus Project. His followers – many of them with roots in The Zeitgeist Movement– call him ‘a modern Da Vinci’. The movie Future by Design (2006) descri- bes Fresco’s life from when he experienced the Wall Street crash in 1929 and the following Depression until today. In spite of his 93 years, Fresco still teaches various subjects, including holistic design of sustainable cities, energy efficiency, and advanced technological automation. He has recently been a guest lecturer in Copenhagen. Read more about Fresco and his ideas at www.thevenusproject.com and www.thezeitgeistmovement.com

The Venus Project The 25-acre research center of the Venus Project is situated in Venus, Florida. This constitutes the first phase of the project’s realization. Here, you can find full-scale buildings as well as models that physi- cally show how nature and technology can co-exist. Read more at www.thevenusproject.com.

And when it comes to an end, there will be gangs and to repair the old. This is exemplified in the idea of the riots, and crime begins to rise. I’m not advocating this, circular city: a fully conceived, sustainable and efficient I’m not for this; I’m just describing what most likely will city consisting of concentric circles around The Central happen,” he says and continues: Dome, with recreational areas at the outer rim. Inside is “If that happens, a military dictatorship will come in, everything a modern society needs. The idea isn’t unlike in which people will tell you how to live and what to do. Ebenezer Howard’s Garden Cities of Tomorrow, see page That’s called a dictatorship. It comes about when you 38, though naturally it is infinitely more modern. After can’t manage the vast majority of your people. This dic­ all, there’s 75 years between the projects. tatorship is something I have a tremendous fear of, and Fresco recommends connecting cybernate system we are trying to do this Venus Project in order to show computers to automated machinery, coordinating all the people a possible alternative to social chaos.”6 city’s functions and processes. This can be compared The Venus Project hence recommends a resource-based to the brain and nervous system of an organism. In the economy that makes all the basic amenities of life avail­ city’s housing areas, the system monitors environmental able to all. This can only be achieved through intelligent management and the recycling of waste. It also monitors application of research and technology – not by going and adapts supply and demand between fabricators and on in the same groove, the same system. The idea is that consumers, balancing production and distribution accor­ the true value of any society is its resources, both poten­ ding to demand. Hence, according to the idea, excess pro­ tial and developed, as well as the individuals that work duction and scarcity can be eradicated. towards eradicating resource scarcity. Cybernation (cybernetics + -ation), which means the “80 percent of all jobs will be phased out. We will no automated control over a production or process through longer need politicians, businessmen, bankers, soldiers, computer control, is a keyword. Fresco maintains that and lawyers,” Fresco told a Danish newspaper7 when he only when this cybernation is fully integrated into our visited Copenhagen. culture can computers sensibly serve humankind and its needs: The key word is cybernation ”No technological civilization can ever operate efficien­ The tight-knit metropolitan society is the key to the pro­ tly and effectively without the application of cybernetics ject, which proposes a tabula rasa approach (see page to the social system. This dynamic approach only acts to 39), whereby you build new cities rather than trying enhance human lives – it doesn’t monitor or dictate their

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We are limited by our past. ”Perhaps the greatest limiting factor of our present-day pre- scientific culture can be traced to our language, social customs and values, which were conceived in earlier times

Photos in this issue of FO are used with permission of The Venus Project as visual illustration of this article. Thanks to Roxanne Meadows, Jacque Fresco and The Venus Project.

“The design of The Venus Project will not only be applied lives. The idea is to create so good living conditions and to cities, industrial processes and the environment, but so high standards of living that everybody will be free to to education as well. The aims of The Venus Project have choose the lifestyle they find the most fulfilling.” no parallel in history, not with communism, socialism, Culture fascism or any other political ideology. This is true becau­ Even though the city core’s production units are auto­ se cybernation is of recent origin. With this system, the mated, they are non-polluting, silent and clean, with easy system of financial influence and control will no longer 10 access to the cities. Goods and products are transported exist.”” on boats along canals, while people are transported cen­ MORTEN GRØNBORG has an MA and is editor of FO/Futureorientation trally from the Dome (e.g. by automated monorails8 desig­ ned for transportation between cities, or by air or sea between states.) Fresco also has suggestions for undersea housing units in which the view from your window wouldn’t be surface nature, but fish and other marine life. notes However, technology and design of the physical world 1 FAQ at www.thevenusproject.com alone won’t cut it. The culture must also be designed and 2 read more at http://copkreativ.dk/ the population educated for a better world. 3 see Fresco’s COP Kreativ lecture at www.youtube.com/ watch?v=dwIlPqkpJf4 We are limited by our past. ”Perhaps the greatest limi­ 4 http://tinyurl.com/ydrjqk8 ting factor of our present-day pre-scientific culture can be 5 interview at www.thevenusproject.com traced to our language, social customs and values, which 6 see note 4. were conceived in earlier times,” the argument goes9. 7 http://www.information.dk/205302 8 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monorail However, any similarity to earlier totalitarian regimes is 9 see note 4 resisted: 10 ibid.

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 19 This is one of two articles that illumi- nate each side of the phenomenon of ‘surveillance’ as explored in George Orwell’s dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. Read “Orwell Was a Pessimist” to hear the other side of the story

By Klaus Æ. Mogensen Orwell Was an Optimist

“Big Brother is watching.” This is how George Or­ well described the surveillance society in Nineteen Eighty-Four. The novel depicts a dystopian so­cie­ ty where the state closely watches everyone and ­strikes down hard on any activity that can be view­ ed as subversive. ‘Big Brother’ often shows up as a grim spectre in contemporary debates about surveil­ lance, but reality is actually surpassing fiction: We are under surveillance everywhere, often without being aware of it, and the information collected about us is kept for years and may be used against us. Hence, Orwell could be seen as an optimist.

20 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Orwell Was an Optimist - By Klaus Æ. Mogensen

Every time we withdraw cash in an ATM or use a card to pay in a shop, the banks register where we are and how much money we use. If we use our customer card in our local supermarket, the super- market chain keeps an account of our day-to-day purchases in order to create a profile of our con- sumption - a process called data mining

set up and operate the surveillance cameras. So why is u In Great Britain, you can buy a popular t-shirt with the it done? Is it because of a collective delusion about the text “Orwell was an optimist”. This is not a word usually cameras’ efficacy? Or is it something more sinister? associated with the famous British writer. His works Surveillance cameras are the most visible form of tend to be gloomy, and his science fiction novel Nineteen surveillance and the one that we – partly because of Eighty-Four (1949) contains one of literature’s most fear­ Orwell – are most aware of. However, in our daily lives, some descriptions of a despotic society. The t-shirt’s mes­ we are watched in many other ways, some of which take sage still reverberates today because surveillance of our much closer peeks at our private lives than the cameras everyday lives has progressed far beyond what Orwell do. The problem is that we aren’t aware of this surveil­ could foresee in his wildest imagination. Our every action lance because it is invisible. One example is when we is mapped in detail by the state and by large corporati­ use our credit or debit cards. Every time we withdraw ons, but because we aren’t always aware that this sur­ cash in an ATM or use a card to pay in a shop, the banks veillance is taking place, we generally don’t worry much register where we are and how much money we use. If about it. Perhaps we should worry, for surveillance is we use our customer card in our local supermarket, the only going to increase in the future. supermarket chain keeps an account of our day-to-day The most familiar type of surveillance is through purchases in order to create a profile of our consumption surveillance cameras, also known as cctv (closed-circuit – a process called data mining4 – and this information is television)1. These surveillance cameras are particularly used to make us consume more. The British supermar­ common in Great Britain, where there are an estimated ket chain Budgens secretly takes photos of everybody five million of them – one for every 12 citizens2. The buying alcohol or cigarettes in order to compare them best are good enough to recognize people up to 75 with a national database of minors that previously have meters away. The authorities aren’t alone in conducting attempted to buy such products5. surveillance; many of the cameras are set up by private Do you carry a mobile phone on you? If so, your companies in shops and parking garages, outside banks telephone company knows at all times where you are and goldsmiths, or in residential areas. Most recordings – even when you aren’t using your phone. Telephone are kept for a month or longer – sometimes far longer. companies must keep records of phone calls for at In Orwell’s novel, surveillance was limited by how many least three years, and your text messages are typically people you could instruct to watch others (and who saved for 30 days – even if you delete them on your should watch the watchmen?), but we are moving bey­ phone. There are examples of divorce cases in which the ond that limitation. Today, computers can analyze video spouse’s text messages are used as evidence of infidelity6. images and recognize not just individual people, but also The next step in fighting internet piracy may very well suspicious behavioural patterns. A person can be follo­ be to force telecommunications companies to analyze wed from camera to camera in order to map the indivi­ all data packages sent over the internet to check if they dual’s movement in detail. contain pirated material7. Once such a system is in place, The defence offered for the many surveillance came­ it can easily be expanded to look also for political mate­ ras is that they help to solve crime. However, according rial or other unwanted activity. However, you shouldn’t to a study conducted by the British police in 2008, only feel too safe now, either. When you go on the internet, about three percent of all crimes are solved with the help there is a considerable risk of your computer becoming of cctv3 – hardly enough to justify the billions it cost to infected with ‘spybots’, a type of computer virus that

22 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Orwell Was an Optimist - By Klaus Æ. Mogensen

Surveillance of our everyday lives has progres- sed far beyond what Orwell could foresee in his wildest imagination. Our every action is mapped in detail by the state and by large cor- porations, but because we aren’t always aware that this surveillance is taking place, we gene- rally don’t worry much about it

monitors your internet activity and reports back to some data? Experience suggests otherwise; for instance, in private – or public? – body8. 2007, the government of Great Britain lost two hard disks Recent measures for improving traffic in our cities containing confidential data about 25 million citizens11. also lead to more surveillance. Many metropolises have There’s cause to be worried. Very worried. Orwell was an introduced – or are introducing – payment systems with optimist. personal cards that are registered by RFID readers when you enter or exit buses and trains. The system means that KLAUS Æ. MOGENSEN has a BA in physics and astronomy and works at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. He works with the pos- your movement is registered in detail, and this informa­ sibilities of technology and their significance for our society and lives, with tion is saved for at least as long as you, as a customer, future culture and lifestyles, consumption and media, and IPR (Intellectual have the opportunity to complain about your bill9. Property Rights). But can’t paranoid travellers who don’t want to be regi­ stered just drive their own car instead? Perhaps, but not for long. Several countries, including Denmark and Great Britain, are considering introducing road pricing through GPS or the forthcoming European positioning system Galileo10. Again, your movement will be registered in detail. The conclusion is obvious: Our actions and decisions notes are monitored and registered almost constantly, no mat­ 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closed-circuit_television ter if we are in a public place, at work, in a shop, or 2 paul Lewis: ”Every step you take”, The Guardian 2. marts 2009, www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/mar/02/westminster-cctv-system-privacy sitting in front of our personal computers. The ways in 3 ibid. which we are watched will most likely multiply in the 4 www.tech-faq.com/data-mining.shtml future, and with the developments within information 5 www.boingboing.net/2008/05/14/london-supermarket-s.html 6 www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/24/french-divorce-ruling- and communication technology, we can count on all sorts all_n_267043.html of data about us being exchanged and analyzed to an 7 paul Marks: ”Net piracy: The people vs the entertainment industry”, ever-increasing degree. It may be that we, at the present www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427375.200 time, trust the authorities not to abuse their knowledge 8 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spybot_worm 9 see eg. www.tinyurl.dk/12863 about us. But are we willing to maintain that trust fore­ 10 www.tinyurl.dk/12474 ver? Besides, can we trust the authorities to protect our 11 www.tinyurl.dk/12481

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 23 This is one of two articles that illumi- nate each side of the phenomenon of ‘surveillance’ as explored in George Orwell’s dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. Read “Orwell Was an Optimist” to hear the other side of the story

By Klaus Æ. Mogensen Orwell Was a Pessimist

“Big Brother is watching.” This is how George Orwell described the surveillance society in Nineteen Eighty-Four. The novel depicts a dysto­ pian society where the state closely watches every­ one and strikes down hard on any activity that can be viewed as subversive. ‘Big Brother’ often shows up as a grim spectre in contemporary debates about surveillance, but reality isn’t as bad as the fiction: We may be watched everywhere, but we can remain calm, because the surveillance is there to protect us. Orwell was a pessimist.

24 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Orwell Was a pessimist - By Klaus Æ. Mogensen

A society entirely without surveillance, where everybody can act anonymously, isn’t a uto- pia, but a dystopia. Everyone would be able to commit crimes with impunity, whether violence, fraud, terrorism, or child pornography

It isn’t “Big Brother is watching”, but rather “Big Mother is watching over you”

u George Orwell was a great writer, but we must blame were printed. Surveillance of restaurants and the food him for creating an overblown fear of surveillance. After industry regularly uncovers foul and unhealthy business all, by far the majority of surveillance is there to protect practices. The world is a safer place when surveillance us, and few people should mind this. It isn’t “Big Brother techniques protect ordinary people. is watching”, but rather “Big Mother is watching over Surveillance isn’t just a matter of protecting us, but you”. also of making our lives easier and ensuring justice. In Be honest: When you enter an empty parking garage the near future we are likely to introduce road pricing or an underground station late at night, aren’t you glad through satellites13, which will ensure a fairer traffic tax that there’s a camera that keeps an eye out in case you’re that reflects each driver’s actual use, and will provide mugged? Aren’t you glad that your bank makes a list of the opportunity to give discounts for driving outside the your credit card purchases? Isn’t it nice that the super­ peak hours or using lesser-used roads. Once the move­ market has cameras that watch out for pickpockets and ment of all cars is registered continually, it also becomes shoplifters? It may well be that a lot of surveillance today easier to warn about congestion and suggest alternative is of too poor quality to solve very many crimes, but the routes. At the same time, such a system will make it technology keeps improving. By now, image software can easier to find stolen cars, and that is surely something recognize people’s faces even when they wear beards and good (unless you are a car thief!) dark glasses12. A society entirely without surveillance, where every­ We should also remember that it is not just private body can act anonymously, isn’t a utopia, but a dystopia. citizens that are watched, but also companies and fringe Everyone would be able to commit crimes with impunity, political and religious groups. The current financial crisis whether violence, fraud, terrorism, or child pornography. might not even have taken place if we had more surveil­ Arguments about the sanctity of privacy have their place, lance of the financial sector, and surveillance of radical but if atrocities such as the Austrian Josef Fritzl’s impri­ Moslem groups recently uncovered a planned armed sonment and rape of his own daughter for 24 years can attack on the Mohammed cartoonist Kurt Westergaard take place under the cover of privacy, we must ask our­ and the newspaper Jyllands-Posten in which the cartoons selves if privacy really should be so sacrosanct14. If you

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 25 Orwell Was an Optimist - By Klaus Æ. Mogensen

Without absolute power of the media, an absolutist regime as described in Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four cannot exist for long. For this reason alone, we shouldn’t worry too much about the surveillance society. Orwell was a pessimist

haven’t got anything to hide, you shouldn’t mind surveil­ down the entire telephone system18. Without absolute lance. Society only works as long as we can watch each power of the media, an absolutist regime as described in other and hence keep each other on the path of virtue. Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four cannot exist for long. For The good news is that surveillance in our society is this reason alone, we shouldn’t worry too much about the increasingly decentralized and laid in the hands of the surveillance society. Orwell was a pessimist. individual citizen. We are living in an increasingly trans­ parent society where few atrocities can be kept hidden. KLAUS Æ. MOGENSEN has a BA in physics and astronomy and works at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. He works with the pos- Private photos and videos taken with mobile phones are sibilities of technology and their significance for our society and lives, with increasingly used to solve crimes – even crimes com­ future culture and lifestyles, consumption and media, and IPR (Intellectual mitted by authorities, as when citizens record examples Property Rights). of police violence15. Misconduct by big companies is more and more often uncovered through surveillance by private citizens, as when the billionaire swindler Stein Bagger was brought down by the blogger Dorte Toft16. Dictatorships’ aggression against their own people are documented on the internet the same day, as when the Iranian student Neda Salehi Agha Soltan was shot by Iranian security troops in June 2009 during a protest over the re-election of Ahmadinejad17. Little Brother keeps an eye on Big Brother. The surveillance of the big by the small has become so effective because it has become harder for the big to con­ notes trol the media to the same extent as before. Anybody can 1 www.technologyreview.com/computing/22234/?a=f in a few minutes put a video recording on the internet, 2 www.tinyurl.dk/12474 3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fritzl_case and if it is important enough, it will be seen by millions 4 http://hothardware.com/News/NYPD-Wants-Your-Videos-to-Help- of people – as happened with the video of Soltan’s death. Fight-Crime In connection with the protests in Iran in 2009, Twitter 5 www.computerworld.dk/blog/redbord/1612 also turned out to be a communication platform that was 6 www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6557858. ece hard for the authorities to control, and during later pro­ 7 www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6902427. tests, the Iranian authorities found it necessary to close ece

26 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com By Søren Riis, Evan Selinger and Kyle Whyte Nudging Utopia

The Nudge technology can lead to better design, more desirable behaviour and a better world … all without your noticing it. The method is based on the fact that human beings are far less rational and intelligent than we like to think. Hence, we can benefit from small, gentle, imperceptible nudges in the right direction

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 29 Nudging Utopia - By Søren Riis, Evan Selinger and Kyle Whyte

u If you are male, you are probably already familiar with thinks in the short term, if he thinks at all, and is also a form of ‘nudge technology’ – at least if you have used rather lazy. Human beings aren’t as intelligent as we a urinal in the Schiphol airport near Amsterdam. By pla­ would like to think, and we repeatedly make bad choices. cing an image of a fly close to the urinal drain, cleaning The world in which we live isn’t as logically coherent needs in the airport toilets have been reduced drastically. or as just as we can imagine in our dreams. Studies that Without giving it much thought, most men aim directly deal with human choice and reasoning have shown that at the fly, which leads to about 80 percent less ‘spills’. In we often make a number of common mistakes.2 In gene­ their controversial and noteworthy book Nudge, Richard ral, we ar e unreasonably optimistic. Among other things, H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein look at this phenomenon Thaler & Sunstein refer to studies for which a number of and suggest a range of solutions for the financial and entrepreneurs were asked two different questions: ­ climate crises as well as for the design of user-friendly a) Typically, how likely do you think it is for a company products. like yours is to succeed? b) How likely are you to suc­ ceed? For question a, where the participants had to evalu­ Homo Simpson and the dystopian society ate the general likelihood of success, most answered “50 In Thaler’s & Sunstein’s book, nudges are promoted as an percent chance of success”. However, when they had to ingenious middle road between freedom and paternalism. evaluate the likelihood of their own success, most answe­ Through nudges, bans and injunctions can be minimized red “90 percent” or even “100 percent”. You see the same while our freedom is optimised in a responsible way. For erroneous estimates when you ask newlyweds about the example, a nudge could be useful in a modern supermar­ likelihood of a future divorce. Most estimate that it is ket to make customers buy healthier food. basically impossible that this should happen to them, In this context, nudging may mean that you organise a while US statistics show clearly that about 50 percent of supermarket to make fruit and vegetables easily available all marriages end in divorce. and placed at eye level. At the same time, candy should Our starry-eyed optimism may have the function that be placed out of the way to ensure that it escapes the we don’t all end up becoming depressed about the wor­ attention of those who don’t have sweets on their shop­ ld’s true dystopian state – but this optimism also means ping list. However, it is well known that supermarkets that we repeatedly make mistakes and are cheated. For often place candy at eye level near the cash registers so instance, we expect big lotto winnings that we’re never that everybody is confronted with it. This temptation going to get, and we think we will float on top if (or should be seen in relation to the obesity epidemic, which when) climate change really kicks in. each year costs companies and the health care system bil­ If we connect this optimism to our various methods lions because of related diseases1. This is a nudge desig­ for conscious reasoning, things don’t look much better, ned to promote the customer’s willingness to purchase, quite the opposite, in fact. In our everyday lives, we tend though one that promotes poor rather than good health. to use a number of rules of thumb that are random and However, the principle is the same. It is a matter of pro­ often quite misleading. The basis of our reasoning is viding a ‘nudge’ to promote a particular behaviour. often guided more or less arbitrarily by the given context. Before we take a closer look at the paradisiacal vision For example, a study asked a group of university students behind the nudge technology, we would first like to two questions in this order: 1) How happy are you? explain how, why and where nudges work. The idea 2) How often are you on a date? When the questions behind nudges is that people aren’t fully rational beings were asked in this way, there was hardly any correlation (homo economicus) who, through deliberation, knowledge between the answers. However, when another group of and a good memory make wise, well-considered choices. students were asked the same questions in the opposite In fact, most of the time we act on mental autopilot. We order, a different pattern emerged. The students who don’t really think things through, or we are influenced by hadn’t had a date for a long time used this fact as a basis our senses. For example, we are not making a fully ratio­ for answering question number two, and suddenly felt nal decision when we put a chocolate bar that we didn’t rather miserable. Hence, they rated their general level of really plan to buy in the cart at the supermarket cash happiness lower than the first control group. register. Only a relatively small fraction of our time do We also use another ‘method’ to make our choices and we spend the time and energy to reflect on our choices. decide our future actions, and this is no less random than In a somewhat caricatured but highly illustrative the example above. The extent to which the individual fashion, Thaler & Sunstein compare our everyday ‘self’ worries about the risk of, for example, nuclear power, with Homer Simpson from the American cartoon series terrorism, Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease, H1N1, driving a car, The Simpsons (1989-). In many ways, homo simpson is sunbathing, and air travel depends on how easily examp­ the direct opposite of homo economicus. Homo simpson les of the given dangers emerge in our minds.

30 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Nudging Utopia - By Søren Riis, Evan Selinger and Kyle Whyte

By placing an image of a fly close to the urinal drain, cleaning needs in the airport toilets have been reduced drastically. Without giving it much thought, most men aim directly at the fly, which leads to about 80 percent less ‘spills’

If we are to sort out the ways of the world and make real pro- gress, we should start by nudg­ ing ourselves into more appro- priate behaviour

If, for instance, there has recently been a major plane other. In other words, the dystopian background, which crash, we generally become far more afraid of flying, requires nudge technologies, is the society we are living even though air safety in general is improving. If there in. If we are to sort out the ways of the world and make has recently been an earthquake, far more people buy real progress, we should start by nudging ourselves into insurance against earthquake damage than they other­ more appropriate behaviour. wise would. In 2001, many people were very afraid of Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease. But when two planes cra­ Towards paradise on autopilot shed into the Twin Towers in New York, the fear of Once we become aware of our typical mistakes, we can Creutzfeldt-Jacob practically disappeared and was repla­ use nudges to organize the world in a way that com­ c­ed by an epidemic of fear of terrorism and hatred of pensates for them. The vision is to make the world an Muslims. in­spired, paradisiacal place for people to live. The mis- If we connect these irrational decision procedures with sion is to turn the environments we live and work in the familiar human trait of laziness, we reach the sad, into secured cribs, in which it requires extra effort to fall godforsaken place where most are in need of a nudge in over and hurt oneself. In this light, we can see nudges as the right direction. According to the authors of the book physical and mental training wheels of a sort. In order Nudge, human laziness shows itself in how our behaviour to design the ideal user-, citizen- and customer-friendly has a certain degree of inertia. It takes a lot before we environment, we need a type of expert, which Thaler & even consider changing the status quo. Hence, we often Sunstein call a ‘choice architect’. These architects must accept the default settings on various products. When be well versed in the science of human decision theory buying a new mobile phone, adults rarely change the and must construct environments and user interfaces ringtone. Once we start subscribing to a newspaper, we so intelligent that we make as few mistakes as possible don’t cancel it for months or even years after we stop rea­ and generally act more in accordance with our personal ding it regularly. interests. In this way, we don’t really need to think much. It is in this state of mind that we act in our everyday Through the work of the choice architects, we will be lives. The satirical portrayal of Springfield, Homer more or less automatically nudged in the right direction. Simpson’s hometown, may seem distant from most The authors repeatedly compare these experts to grand people’s images of their own world; but it seems that in masters of chess: able to foresee when various moves will reality Springfield is just a slightly exaggerated image of lead to unavoidable loss. By giving us a due nudge in the our own society, which delivers one major crisis after the right direction, the choice architects will make our lives

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 31 Nudging Utopia - By Søren Riis, Evan Selinger and Kyle Whyte

The idea behind nudges is that people aren’t fully rational beings (homo economicus) who, through deliberation, knowledge and a good memory make wise, well-considered choices. In fact, most of the time we act on mental autopilot

happier step by step. The subtitle to Thaler & Sunsteins expectations of future income. Through these nudges, our book, Nudge, is in perfect harmony with this overall society would become more stable, private budgets would paradisiacal vision: Improving Decisions About Health, be healthier, and the fortunes of the market would be Wealth, and Happiness. The nudge vision has found great unimportant – all without the individual citizen having popularity with leaders on the political right and left. to do much. Both David Cameron in the UK and Barack Obama in the Thaler & Sunstein also suggest possible nudges to US have shown great interest in ‘nudging’ for a better ensure a green and sustainable future. Basically, we don’t society. need substantial legislative changes, but simply gentle nudges, in order to achieve a more efficient and sustaina­ Nudging in practice ble society. As the authors point out, energy is mainly Let us now take a closer look at some of the concrete sug­ invisible to users; hence, it is unclear to them how gestions for nudges that Thaler & Sunstein make in their much they use. For this reason, a clear visual indicator book - nudges that can help us realize the overall positive of energy use will often have a positive effect. Thaler & vision of an effective and happy society. Sunstein refer to a study that showed that, if consumers Most agree that the primary cause of the financial were equipped with a globe that glowed red when they crisis was the prevalence of subprime mortgages. As used a lot of energy and glowed green when their energy we now know, these mortgages are often exempt from use was low, they reduced their energy consumption repayments for a period of time and have particularly by 40 percent in the test period. In China, individual low interest rates the first few years. They can be rather homes don’t even have electricity meters, so there is little opaque and difficult to compare. In this context, a nudge inducement to save energy. In Denmark, we have to pay could consist of ‘default’ mortgages being fixed-rate bond individually for electricity use, but our electricity meters loans, which – according to the above insights and expe­ aren’t pretty, nor do they have a particularly smart inter­ riences – will lead more people to choose this more secu­ face. Hence, they tend to be hidden well away where they re type of financing. Another financial nudge could be can’t nudge us in a more sustainable direction. transparency and standardization of the banks’ commu­ A society with ubiquitous nudges would run like a nication of repayment rates, interest rates and fees. This well-oiled engine with a clear course towards a ‘para­ will make different products easier to compare, so that disiacal’ state. In this dream society, people get out of we – even with our normally limited mental capacity – bed at the right time in the morning because everybody can make the best possible choices. In addition, studies has a fine nudge alarm clock on wheels, which means of retirement schemes show that many people, if asked, they can’t easily hit ‘snooze’, but instead are forced out are willing to spend a certain fraction of their future of bed in order to catch and stop the alarm clock3. Once wage increases on savings. Analogous to this, the banks’ they get up, the citizens eat low-calorie meals and drive ‘default setting’ in relation to exempt-from-repayment to work in electric cars (which of course in their default mortgages could be that future wage increases would setting drive by themselves, so they neither collide with automatically lead to greater down payments on loans other cars nor cause damage to pedestrians). Work is unless you explicitly want something else. This is particu­ foolproof, so to speak. If the employee does anything larly important if the customer has a subprime mortgage unusual, they are asked several times if they are sure, that is exempt from repayment, since the aforementioned and a number of alternative choices will automatically be optimism can easily contribute to unrealistically high offered – just like when we attempt to delete a file on our

32 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Nudging Utopia - By Søren Riis, Evan Selinger and Kyle Whyte

It is up to future citizens and politicians to draw the lines and implement a range of nudge tech- nologies in tomorrow’s diverse society. However, in the spirit of enlightenment, we would first like to have some debate about the phenomenon

computer. If an employee gets home at night after a hard Richard H. Thaler & Cass R. Sunstein: Nudge: Improving Decisions About day, during which he or she somehow managed to make Health, Wealth, and Happiness. Penguin Books, USA 2009. an error, and then starts a loud fight with the girlfriend or boyfriend, the wall microphones recognize the high- SØREN RIIS has an MA in philosophy and German and a PhD in phi- pitched, unusually unfriendly tone and immediately start losophy. He is an associated employee at the Copenhagen Institute for streaming a calming piano concert through the home lou­ Futures Studies and Assistant Professor at Roskilde University Centre (RUC). dspeakers. At the same time, a text message is sent from the digital psychiatrist to the effect that you should try to EVAN SELINGER has a PhD in philosophy. He is Associate Professor of think of the best thing that happened that day. Because Philosophy at Rochester Institute of Technology, USA. of the deterrent effect – and just in case something bad KYLE WHYTE has a PhD in philosophy. He is Assistant Professor of occurs – everything is taped on video. After having cal­ Philosophy at Michigan State University, USA. med down, the citizen can go peacefully to bed and be well rested for the next day’s challenges. To many, such a society is probably not a paradise at all. Yet we accept some nudges and strive towards a safe and efficient society. Technological medicine for healing society’s ailments doesn’t come without possible side effects. It is up to future citizens and politicians to draw the lines and implement a range of nudge technologies notes in tomorrow’s diverse society. However, in the spirit of 1 in this connection, read also Riis, Søren: ”Overvægt: En tungtvejende trend”, Børsen, 2008 enlightenment, we would first like to have some debate 2 e.g. psychology, game theory and economics about the phenomenon. 3 thaler & Sunstein refer to this alarm clock, which already exists

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 33 Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Architec- ture is the will of an epoch translated into space. Mies van der Rohe Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com By Nikolina Olsen-Rule Utopian Spaces

In order to understand the more philosophical ideas behind the utopia phenomenon, a more concrete approach may be necessary. For this purpose, a so­ ciety’s physical organization is an obvious thing to watch. Take a look at three perfect cities

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 37 Utopian Spaces - By Nikolina Olsen-Rule

Futurism’s 100th birthday Brasillia – the realized utopian city February 2009 marked the 100th anniversary of the publication of the Brasilia is the capital of Brazil and has about 3.6 million inhabitants. first Futurist manifesto by the movement’s founder Filippo Tomassi The city is situated in the central parts of Brazil’s highlands and was Marinetti (1876-1944). Futurism was an Italian avant-garde move- planned and developed from 1956. The Brazilian architects Lúcio ment that included literature, art and architecture. The movement Costa and Oscar Niemeyer were the main people behind the architec- celebrated human-made motion, the future, and technology. Objects tural design. Originally, Brasilia’s road network was planned in a spe- like machines and cars were often used as symbols of the ideology cial loop system that made normal traffic lights obsolete. The city is of Futurism. Some of the artists that adopted the Futurist ideology included in UNESCO’s list of World Heritage Sites8. were Giacomo Balla (1871-1958), Umberto Boccioni (1882-1916), Carlo Carrà (1881-1966), Gino Severini (1883-1966), and the architect Antonio Sant’Elia (1888-1916)7.

u Imagine a world without poverty or wretchedness, or Utopia is a sort of prototype of an ideal society where simply a society where everyone can feel safe and well everybody has equal rights and thrives in a harmonic adjusted, and where there is meaningful work and bright, community. spacious housing for everyone. This may sound like pure Later, the French sociologist and philosopher Michel utopia, but is it? A closer examination of utopian influ­ Foucault, among others, dealt with the concept of utopia ences on modern city planning may give new hope to the in his essay Of Other Spaces – Heterotopias (1967). Here, utopia. he presents the utopia as closely linked to the heteroto­ Why do we find it hard to embrace the notion of uto­ pia: pia today? The answer may be that we require a rational explanation for everything. However, it seems that we “Utopias are sites with no real place. They are sites that are seeing a change in attitudes towards utopia. We do have a general relation of direct or inverted analogy with not embrace utopia blindly, but because we modern the real space of Society. They present society itself in a individuals today are facing new challenges that make us perfected form, or else society turned upside down, but in extremely vulnerable. Many things suggest that the soci­ any case these utopias are fundamentally unreal spaces.” etal structures we have so long taken for granted are now being shaken to the core. If you aren’t already worried Looking from a present-day perspective, the question is about the financial crisis, there’s the climate or the war in why we have anxiety when it comes to utopia and the the Middle East, not to mention poverty. But what is our idea of an ideal society. Perhaps it is because history call to action? A so-called Zeitgeist movement has grown has taught us about the big, fallen utopian societies. As from the ashes of the global crisis. But in order to be able the Slovenian philosopher and social critic Slavoj Žižek to believe that we human beings can change the world, points out, the fall of the Wall marked the end of the we must understand utopia as an alternative, radically Communist utopia, and the 9/11 attack in New York kil­ different business model1. led the idea that the world was heading towards a liberal utopia. Finally, the deification of the global market (the The etymology of utopia forces of free enterprise) was wounded fatally in 20083. The concept of utopia cannot be boiled down to a single However, in order to understand some of the more thing. The word utopia has a double meaning, since in complex philosophical and socio-critical discourses sur­ Greek it can mean both the good place (eutopia) and the rounding utopia, a more concrete approach may be neces­ non-existing place (outopia). The opposite of utopia is sary. Here, a society’s physical organization is an obvious dystopia – a concept that refers to a hostile place. Finally, thing to watch in order to understand how conceptual there is heterotopia, which means ‘the other place’2. ideologies are turned into reality. The West’s encounter with utopia goes back all the way to Plato’s The Republic, circa 400BC. Utopia was The perfect city re-encountered in about 1515, when the writer and Three utopian schools in particular have influenced city Renaissance thinker Sir Thomas More published his planning in the 20th century. The first of these is the novel Utopia. Here, More describes a journey to an ima­ garden city, invented by city planner Ebenezer Howard, ginary island society that, unlike the Europe of his time, who in the same year as he published his book Garden was characterized by egalitarian rule (based on equal Cities of Tomorrow (1898) founded the Garden City move­ distribution of society’s riches, e.g. equal wages). More’s ment in Great Britain. The garden city reflects the utopia

38 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Utopian Spaces - By Nikolina Olsen-Rule

Seen from the perspective of cultural and social history, the utopian concept has had a rough ride. As was clearly seen in the UN climate summit in December 2009, COP15 in Copenhagen, utopias are very much a mat- ter of power

of a city in the midst of nature, designed like a satellite city planning. In his plans for a large-scale urban project, city consisting of a centre encircled by green belts or La Ville Radieuse (or The Radiant City), developed in the zones. The clever thing about the garden city is that it is 1920’s, he introduced his ideas of a monolithic city of constructed from a modular system wherein small self- generic and gigantic skyscraper blocks, designed to house sufficient cooperatives and village units are planted like three million inhabitants. The idea was to create a more smaller satellites. Each garden city is limited to a certain efficient form of housing and at the same time improve number of citizens and, if this maximum is exceeded, a the standards of each housing unit. Le Corbusier’s radiant new satellite city is founded. This method has been the city, which was never realized, was also an implicit criti­ model for a number of garden cities such as the British cism of the social structures of society. Letchworth and Welwyn, and has generally influenced The radical type of city planning and architecture of the way suburbs have been developed and expanded in which Le Corbusier was an exponent, and by which Post-War times. many other modern city planners have been inspired, The second school arose from the idea of ‘the city with­ is often called tabula rasa architecture. This means that out walls’, introduced by the American architect Frank the slate of the ideal city is wiped clean of existing struc­ Lloyd Wright, who is also known for his Japan-inspired, tures, ideals and norms. The new city thus embodies horizontal building style. With his utopian city Broadacre all the hopes and dreams that its planner or architect City he intended to build a city where all inhabitants might have for the future. The prerequisite for reali­ would have a lot of 4000 square metres each. In many zing Le Corbusier’s hypermodern city was that a large ways, the city resembles Howard’s garden city, and the part of central Paris should be levelled to the ground, ideals behind it are similar to More’s egalitarian society, which meant that the city never came to be. However, Utopia. Broadacre City was meant to be a society without Le Corbusier did build a number of building blocks, call­ specialists where everyone took turns at being farmers, ed unités, where he carried out the principle of building workers or whatever was needed. Instead of paying with small villages in a housing complex. These can be seen money when trading, the citizens were expected to barter in, for example, Marseilles and Berlin4. raw materials or services. As the name Broadacre implies, Le Corbusier has been criticized heavily for his visions the intent was that all the city’s houses should be built of better housing and cities, in particular for his radical with plenty of distance between them. However, Wright’s approach and the way he divided everything – from a visions have instead turned into the densely populated, single housing unit to an entire city – into zones. Le decentralized suburbs seen in the USA today. Corbusier has been called rigid, bureaucratic, totalitarian, a devotee of concrete – and, yes, a utopian. A tribute to the metropolis The third school is rooted in the works of the Swiss- The tabula rasa cities of modernism French architect and designer Charles-Édouard Jeanneret- Common to the three schools is that they, each in their Gris. He is better known as Le Corbusier and is perhaps own way, provide ideas for a society that is viewed as one of modernism’s most original and controversial better than the existing one. And even though all three architects. He launched a range of extremely detailed, cities have been described as utopian urban projects, diagrammatic and modular architectonic principles, and they have nonetheless become important signposts for his systematic and holistic approach characterized every­ architects and city planners in the 20th and 21st centuries. thing he worked with – from design to architecture to

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 39 Utopian Spaces - By Nikolina Olsen-Rule

The radical type of city planning and architecture of which Le Corbusier was an exponent, and by which many other modern city planners have been inspired, is often called tabula rasa architecture. This means that the slate of the ideal city is wiped clean of existing structures, ideals and norms

Faith in progress and better times, and especially dis­ most central ones. Particularly in the field of environ­ satisfaction with the present state of things, is also the ment and climate, there’s been an explosion of good, driving force behind many modern avant-garde move­ fun, weird, and innovative ideas. But where is utopia? ments. It seems difficult to avoid the concept of avant- Or, to put it differently, where is the cohesive plan for a garde when you view the cultural history of utopia. The new society that meets global challenges such as poverty, so-called tabula rasa city plan, which has often been cri­ human oppression and corruption? ticized as totalitarian or dictatorial architecture, should, It is hardly news that the climate field is the new front like other 20th-century avant-garde movements, be seen of cities, architects and city planners. They compete in the light of the two World Wars along with a number vigorously to see who can invent the most sustainable of other important factors such as urban growth, techno­ and thorough plan for preventing the dire forecasts made logical invention, increased mobility, and urban estrange­ by the world’s climate experts. The plans for the organic ment (whereby the individual is lost in metropolitan ano­ city Dongtan, near Shanghai, provide an example of a nymity). Hence, there are utopias that seek inner peace radical and comprehensive city plan that sets new stan­ and harmony – away from the city – and there are some dards for sustainable cities. Dongtan’s master plan invol­ that, like Le Corbusier’s, pay homage to the metropolis, ves a connection between housing and workplaces so technology, and modern construction materials such as that commuting is reduced to a minimum. Through this concrete. alone, 400,000 tonnes of CO2 can be saved. There will be access to vehicles running on electricity and biofuel, and Science fiction and utopia power for the about 80,000 citizens and 50,000 workpla­ Another, even more radical exponent of the tabula rasa ces will come from windmills, biogas from toilets, and city is the avant-garde Italian architect Antonio Sant’Elia, waste from rice farming. There is just one problem: no member of the Futurist Movement (see fact box). He city has been built yet. It turns out that Dongtan, like went to extremes in his attempts to consider the city as many other planned eco-projects in China, is too ambi­ an organic whole. In his drawings for his city Città Nueva tious. In the media, some have raised the question of (1914), gigantic buildings tower in a science-fictional whether a green utopian city like Dongtan is too unreali­ landscape that pays homage to the metropolis. Roadways, stic. Has the project been too ambitious and hence grown viaducts and buildings are connected in an ingenious bigger than calculated? Will ordinary Chinese be able architectonic system – a holistic design that transforms to afford living there? There is also the question of why the urban landscape into an industrial organism. Even you should build an entirely new city rather than making though this city was never built, its influence can be seen the many existing Chinese cities more environmentally in cities such as Oscar Niemeyer’s Brasilia, developed and friendly5. built in 1956. The city became Brazil’s capital in 1960 and is today protected by UNESCO. It can be seen as a Redesigning the world rare example of a realized architectural utopia. The so-called Zeitgeist Movement bears witness to a However, is tabula rasa architecture simply an expres­ radical example of a present-day utopia. One of the sion of insanity or the pure hunger for power? Or can we movement’s founders, Peter Joseph, says in an interview actually learn something from it today? that the monetary economy and the capitalist consumer Today’s globalized world faces new challenges, with culture are slowly eroding from within: “It’s time that war, global warming and the financial crisis being the we wake up. The doomsday scenario, the big contraction,

40 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Utopian Spaces - By Nikolina Olsen-Rule

The question is why we have anxiety when it comes to utopia and the idea of an ideal society. Perhaps it is because history has taught us about the big, fallen utopian societies. As the Slovenian philosopher and social critic Slavoj Žižek points out, the fall of the Wall marked the end of the Communist utopia, and the 9/11 attack in New York killed the idea that the world was heading towards a liberal utopia

might be happening right now. The system of monetary attempts to create entire cities on the basis of ideas like exchange is – in the face of advancing technology – com- ideal behaviour or ideal lifestyles, such as Le Corbusier’s pletely obsolete”.6 grand vision of La Ville Radieuse. However, the idea of The Zeitgeist Movement is the activist branch of a the perfect society isn’t dead. Perhaps the more success­ large and comprehensive project, The Venus Project (see ful utopias can be found on a smaller scale. In other the article page 15, ed.), which aims to change society words, we can find utopias in the ways we build onto radically through modern technology, among other existing cities, improve them, make them better, more things. For most people, the promise of the project environmental, sustainable and humanistic, more fun, sounds like an unattainable utopia, but if you examine it and above all more inhabitable. more closely, there are surprisingly many scientifically founded arguments that open up an entire new world NIKOLINA OLSEN-RULE has an MA in modern culture and cultural of possibilities. The Venus Project is nothing short of a communication from Copenhagen University. She has taught as associate total redesign of the world as we know it – a promise to professor at Århus University and has worked as a communications advi- sor for design exhibitions and as a writer. Today she is an advisor in the change the world’s imbalances through design. communication and design company Bysted in Copenhagen. Do we believe it ourselves? Seen from the perspective of cultural and social history, the utopian concept h as had a rough ride. As was clear­ ly seen in the UN climate summit in December 2009, COP15 in Copenhagen, utopias are very much a matter of power: whose vision of the future is the most rea­ notes lizable, and who carries the strongest mandate in the 1 www.thezeitgeistmovement.com 2 gyldendal’s open encyclopaedia and www.leksikon.org climate struggle? These are just a couple of the many 3 bredsdorff, Thomas: Utopiens anden død, Politiken, 19.12.2009 complicated and unresolved questions that, depending 4 www.marseille-citeradieuse.org, www.corbusierhaus-berlin.de on what position you have, will determine which soluti­ 5 www.chinadigitaltimes.net/china/dongtan/ ons are more or less realizable and desirable. Regarding 6 new York Times, 16.03.2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/ nyregion/17zeitgeist.html the utopian city, we can imagine that the scepticism we 7 http://kunsthistorier.blogspot.com/2009/02/futurismen-100-ar.html find today has something to do with the earlier (failed) 8 http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/445

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 41 Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com By Sara Jönsson Faith in the Future in a World of Dystopias

Utopias are big words and thoughts. But in a world increasingly characterized by complex structures and globalization, it is easier to speak of individual responsibility than of a common dream, which we all must struggle to realize

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 43 Faith in the Future in a World of Dystopias - By Sara Jönsson

In a world that is increasingly characterized by complex structures and globalization, it is easier to speak about individual responsibility than about a common dream, which we must all struggle to realize. Perhaps this is why the selection of orga- nic food on our supermarket shelves has become significantly larger and why the Swedish Pirate’s Party, which fights for file sharing and greater personal control, is now the third-largest party in Sweden

u As a child, I dreamed of becoming an astronaut. The actually can be changed. If a utopia is unattainable, how thought of wandering in space and exploring eternity does it differ from a dystopia: i.e., a vision of a negative was tempting, and I proudly spoke about my future plans society? Is a utopia simply a reminder of something we to my friends and family. I didn’t quite understand why will never be able to achieve? In order to move to even I was met with scepticism – why shouldn’t I be able to richer philosophical ground, we can ask, for example, travel in space when there were other people who did? whether the classical utopia of ‘peace and equality’ could Once I started school, I developed other interests, and the exist if it were possible to achieve. The concept of ‘peace’ astronaut dreams quietly faded away and were replaced only exists in opposition to the concept of ‘war’ and by dreams of clothes, boyfriends and travel: the things implies ‘the absence of war and conflict’, among other that conferred status among my friends at the time. things. But if war and conflict don’t exist, the concept of We all have dreams about the future. Some of the peace would be meaningless, because then peace would dreams are about ourselves and our nearest environment, be the normal state. To put it another way, there is to but others are about the society we live in. Our societal my knowledge nothing called a ‘dead society’, since all dreams are often connected to political or religious ide­ societies are de facto living. If they are not, they turn into als and convictions as well as moral and ethical norms, something else – a ruin or a ghost town. In our language, which tell us how things should be if we were able to we often group words in opposites when describing make them so. Many such dreams could be called utopias social phenomena: war and peace, integration and segre- – future visions that are on the edge of what is realizable, gation, democracy and dictatorship are classical examp­ but which are a part of our efforts to develop as indivi­ les of dichotomies that clearly illustrate the contrasts duals and as a society. For some, a utopia is an unattaina­ be­tween various societal states, which can’t exist without ble goal, a dream that can never be realized and which their opposites. functions in the same way that visions do for companies In spite of this, utopias aren’t simply pipe dreams we – a drive to go forward, even if the goal will never be never will be able to attain. In some places, there is even reached. Today, now that I’m grown up and sensible, my faith that the most unlikely utopias not only make sense dreams consist of both what is realistic and what is just but also could be brought into existence. For example, a distant fantasy, like an overly romanticised Hollywood religions such as Christianity contain a number of reli­ movie. gious ideas that can be compared to utopias: among others, the faith in life after death. Today, Christianity is Can the distant fantasies come true? the world’s most widespread religion, and even though If you are pragmatically minded, you may ask yourself we can perceive a trend towards secularization in some what the point is with distant, unrealistic utopias when parts of the world, it is alive and well. Randall Collins, a you instead can occupy yourself with something that professor of sociology from California, thinks that in all

44 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Faith in the Future in a World of Dystopias - By Sara Jönsson

Utopias will always exist in one form or another, but the 1970’s flower-power era seems very distant

religions the phenomenon of ‘God’ is a symbol of society. collective utopias that they can believe in and fight for. Society gives us life, and it can also kill us – hence, reli­ Instead, in light of our post-modern existence, it becomes gions express the basic conditions of human existence in easier to focus on the job you want. the same way that utopias often do. Will there be utopias in the future? The future dreams of the young in a dystopian world The French sociologist Jean Baudrillard (1929-2007) In 2008, the Swedish consultancy firm Kairos Future invented the idea of ‘hyperreality’, which denotes a sort published the report ”Min bild av drömsamhället” (“My of invented reality produced by the media. Baudrillard vision of the dream society”) with the results of a survey thought that modernity is characterized by production, of 19,000 youths between 15 and 19 years of age. Among while post-modernity will be characterized by simula­ other things, it shows that the dreams of the young first tion and a sort of explosion in signs and symbols from and foremost revolve around their careers, partners and various mass media. An example of this can be found housing. The most important goal is ‘to feel free’, which in the book The Gulf War Didn’t Take Place, in which no fewer than 93 percent named as important. The sur­ Baudrillard describes how, in a segment about the war, vey also shows that the will to improve the world and the American news channel CNN turned to their reporter become engaged in environmental debates has become live in Iraq to ask what was happening, only to discover smaller. Instead, the focus is on more individual needs that the reporter was himself watching CNN in order to and wants, and the greatest worry is not being able to get find out. If the media produces reality, our utopias and a good job. Thus, the long-term trend of individualization desires will most likely also be found in the virtual world. also influences our attitudes towards the collective, which Web 2.0, web 3.0, web 4.0. There is no limit to how far gets less attention. In a world that is increasingly cha­ technology can go. New virtual networks can be built, racterized by complex structures and globalization, it is and our dreams collected on Facebook among applicati­ easier to speak about individual responsibility than about ons and fan pages. Utopias will always exist in one form a common dream, which we must all struggle to realize. or another, but the 1970’s flower-power era seems very Perhaps this is why the selection of organic food on our distant. supermarket shelves has become significantly larger and SARA JÖNSSON has a BA in Sociology and works as a research assi- why the Swedish Pirate’s Party, which fights for file sha­ stant at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies ring and greater personal control, is now the third-largest party in Sweden. Modern literature and movies, particularly in the science fiction genre, more often depict dystopias than utopias. In a growing number of cult movies such as Blade Runner, Terminator, and Brazil, future society is shown as a hi-tech world filled with war and evil. Meanwhile, writers such as the English George Orwell (1903-1950) and the French Michel Houellebecq (1958-) sources: have become famous for their socio-critical portrayals of Jean Baudrillard: The Gulf War Didn’t Take Place (1995) Kairos Future: Min bild av drömsamhället (1998) the present and the future. In this age of climate change, The Pirate Party: www.piratpartiet.se/international war, social injustice, and bad consciences, it may not be Randall Collins: Sociological Insight – An Introduction to Non-Obvious surprising that it becomes harder for the young to create Sociology (1982)

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 45 Johan Peter Paludan’s column

Utopians - our closest colleagues?

u In case the editor hasn’t already mentioned it else­ Old Testament isn’t as powerful as it once was, but for all where in this issue, the word utopia has its origin in the old prophets that have fallen, new ones have cropped Greek and means a place that isn’t real. The concept up everywhere in the neo-religious movements. Vile ton­ continues to play a big role in contemporary discourse, gues suggest that the climate debate has also spawned a and this must be because it represents our aspirations to number of prophets who, through more or less doctored make not-real place real. There’s nothing wrong with that. studies, can see the future. When utopian visions are at times discredited, it is less And then there are the utopians: They who dream of a because of their content than because of the way we seek better world and know what it looks like. to implement them. The end justifies the means, as Lenin In this schema, futurists are placed between utopians and his cronies said – and we know the result of that. and fortune tellers. As Your Columnist see it, futurists Utopias aren’t real, but if they are to be realized, it should stay away from constructing utopian dreams, but must be in the future. You don’t construct utopian visi­ may take part in establishing scenarios for how such visi­ ons for the past, so utopias belong to the ‘futures people’. ons could be realized. Futurists should also refrain from One way to systematize the ‘future people’ is to place making cocksure statements about the future. Though them along two dimensions. First: do they approach the Your Columnist generally praises a professional lack of future with intuition or through methods? And second: opinion, I must remark that utopians are preferable to do they view the future as something given, or is the fortune tellers. Utopians dream. Fortune tellers deceive future ‘something we create’? either themselves or their customers or both. Like so much else, utopias are time bound and are This provides the basis for four types of ‘futures people’: generally expressions of what is seen as the greatest lack 1. They who think the future is given and can be in the time in which they are formulated. The Garden of seen through intuition: prophets, such as the Old Eden, and later Cockayne, are utopias formed during a Testament kind. They were given visions of the time in which work was hard and there was too little to future. So are business managers today, but it eat. Socialist utopias arise in societies with too little equa­ isn’t quite the same thing. lity and justice. The question of whether the utopia that 2. They who think the future is given and can be focuses on access to a high number of virgins in paradise revealed through methods: fortune tellers. You can be similarly explained we will leave unanswered. may think what you will about crystal balls, tea What, then, is the characteristic modern utopia? The leaves, etc., but they are methods of a kind. answer is obvious, given the recently held COP15 con­ 3. They who think the future can be created and that ference in Copenhagen: a clean environment without you can be methodical in your approach to this climate changes. This is rather conservative, one could future. In this group we find planners and their think. helpers: futurists. Another utopia is the one known at the Copenhagen 4. Finally, they who think the future can be created Institute for Futures Studies as OFF, which often and that you can determine the ideal future accompanies ideas such as simple living. This utopia through intuition: utopians. is a response to a perceived gross lack of leisure time, togetherness and quality of life. As can be seen, the future-oriented field is crowded. Both these utopias represent dreams of something Fortune tellers are flourishing. When the Copenhagen that doesn’t exist (yet). We shall see if these utopias will Institute for Futures Studies was established 40 years ago, remain merely utopian. there were only a few willing to accept being described JOHAN PETER PALUDAN is the director of the Copenhagen Institute for this way. Since then, the number has skyrocketed, and Futures Studies. He mainly works to communicate the Institute’s results if we extrapolate the trend – and perhaps we should be through lectures and courses in Denmark, the Nordic countries, greater reluctant to do so – it is possible to foresee the time when Europe, and vthe United States. we all become futurists. There may be some poetic justice in that, since we should all think about the future. The

46 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com By Marcel Bullinga outside of theme Nine trends and nine inventions that will shape the face of the 21st century

Nine trends and nine inventions will Nine trends that will reshape the world around us shape the face of the 21st century. 1. We all live in a 3D mobile media cloud with no on/off button, replacing outdated communication They will have a similar impact on devices. The virtual world and the physical world are becoming the same. Online is default; offline our lives as the car, the TV and the air­ is a choice. Boundaries blur: there is no differ­ plane had on the lives of our parents. ence anymore between a house and a database, between things and people: both can be control­ Take a sneak peak at Marcel Bullinga’s led and manipulated. upcoming book Futurecheck 2. Two economies exist at the same time: a global and virtual economy with a global reach that is hypercompetitive, and a local and physical econo­ my with a shorter reach that is less competitive. 3. The economy is flat, with fewer barriers and fewer limits for doing transparent business and for the exchange of standardized forms of information. 4. You are at the heart and the centre of all logistical and cultural processes. Your own global personal dashboard empowers you to make better daily decisions, such as the choice of a mortgage or the choice of a school for your children. 5. ‘Self’ is a very powerful trend in every possible field: things and people, information and human behaviour, systems and materials. In your personal dashboard, you will have local, high quality, real-time information at your dispos­ al. This huge personal power of access to informa­ tion leads to self-service and self-control. In a flat world economy, the global extremes in social security flatten: less government-funded social security in the West, more in the East. The trends are: self-payment, self-responsibility, self-power, self-health, self-employment and self- management. You are responsible for creating your own pension fund, education savings and healthcare. Both materials and production systems are self- organising, self-healing and self-cleaning. Law enforcement is about self-regulation, self- security and self-enforcement. Local communities are self-sustaining. Things are self-conscious. 6. Mainstream information is local. Mainstream energy is local. Newly created local capital – capital with real value and no speculative aspect -- competes with the US Dollar, the Yuan and the Euro. The mainstream economy is local and self- reliant. It has limited mobility due to green tax­

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 49 Nine trends and nine inventions that will shape the face of the 21st century - By Marcel Bullinga

The 3D mobile media cloud surrounding us will affect our children as well: the WiFi Generation. They will be growing up faster than ever before, reaching puberty and adult age earlier than ever before. This is because they are ­exposed at a very young age to adult information not meant for children, and because they can be reached individually by anyone at a very young age. Parents have less control over the information-intake of their children and lose sight of the people with whom they communicate

ing and the high price of transporting goods and Nine inventions that will change the face of the 21st energy. century 7. You (and everyone and everything else) are trans­ 1. We live in senior cities and in innovation villages. parent; you can be traced – that is, if you have The difference between city and village is dimin­ given marketing agents permission to do so. You ished in a 75 percent urban world. are the boss in this conditionally transparent 2. We produce only green and mainly local prod­ media cloud; you set the conditions for the use ucts. We consume only green and mainly local of your data. Privacy is a (paid) choice. forms of energy. It is either green profit or no Transparency (ranking and benchmarking) of profit at all. Green leaders are financial leaders. your professional achievements leads to a hyper­ 3. We drive and live in energy-efficient cars and competitive labour market. Transparency of buildings, using local forms of energy. This will all services and goods leads to higher overall greatly reduce our geopolitical dependency on ter­ business quality and to a consumer’s paradise. rorist oil states and unstable regimes. Transparency is the secret weapon of all new­ 4. We drive more in virtual cars and less in real cars. comers to a market; it distinguishes them from This will curtail a huge amount of very expensive the old guard. physical mobility. 8. All products and processes become intelligent; 5. We live in a consumers’ paradise, thanks to that is, they have their own consciousness and transparency and intelligent production systems. can react to change. The best common example is However, the future is more of a battlefield for the intelligent self-steering car. The best unknown workers and entrepreneurs. example is intelligent money (yet to be invented). 6. We use cheap product printers – our own per­ 9. We slowly move towards prevention in every sonal factories – to produce small household possible field: the prevention of fraud and crime, products, spare parts, various energy sources and the prevention of failure costs, the prevention of even buildings on the spot, using local resources illnesses and healthcare usage, the prevention of and local raw materials. This will curtail a huge physical transport of products and people, and the amount of long-distance transport, energy usage prevention of energy usage. and failure costs. 7. We live in a mobile 3D media cloud, controlled Do your own Futurecheck brainstorm by you, your mobile, and your own personal dash­ Take the product you make, the service you deliver, or board. In the media cloud, you are the boss of the work you do, and put all nine trend before the word. your privacy, your communication and your data: Then see what happens. This will prepare you for the 100 percent privacy at last. future. The 3D mobile media cloud surrounding us will You make cars? Imagine the Intelligent Car, Self Car, affect our children as well: the WiFi Generation. Green Car, You Car, etc. What changes does this imply? They will be growing up faster than ever before, How do you prepare for these changes? reaching puberty and adult age earlier than ever

50 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Nine trends and nine inventions that will shape the face of the 21st century - By Marcel Bullinga

In this media cloud and personal dash- board, we use intel- ligent money that knows its owner and its purpose, and

knows to whom it What is In and what is Out in the future may or may not be IN OUT transferred. This Sun Oil Local energy Energy that needs long distance reinforces trust, pre- transportation Culturel borders Country borders venting a new finan- Green profit Waste Prior knowledge Knowing after the fact cial crisis. It makes Mediacloud iPod, radio, tv, mobile phone Data Privacy Visual privacy pyramid schemes Noise Silence Transparency Obscurity impossible, prevents High skills Low education Entrepreneurship Wages the majority of cur- Scrutiny and self checking Blind trust and blue eyes Mobile Fixed rent fraud, and provi- Learning factory School Professionals Managers des you with a solid Monocultural rituals Multicultural rituals Population decline Population growth mortgage

before. This is because they are exposed at a very Futurecheck twitters young age to adult information not meant for TWITTER 1: children, and because they can be reached indi­ Green Profit leads us out of crisis. Transparent Profit vidually by anyone at a very young age. Parents makes us excel. Ethical Profit ends perverted bonuses. have less control over the information-intake of Local Money creates real wealth. their children and lose sight of the people with TWITTER 2: whom they communicate. There is not 1 future, but many thousands. However, 8. In the 3D mobile media cloud of the future, you only 1 future will actually be delivered: your future. have your own personal global dashboard, con­ Imagining it will bring it closer taining all your finances, dossiers and transac­ TWITTER 3: tions. It creates transparency and thus reinforces 9 inventions and 9 trends that will shape the face of the trust. Basically, it contains your past and your 21st century. With a similar impact on our lives as car, future. TV and airplane had before 9. In this media cloud and personal dashboard, TWITTER 4: we use intelligent money that knows its owner Business model of the Future: 0 x 2 x ½(T/L/C/E/S) = and its purpose, and knows to whom it may or 0-misery products for 2 x current quality and ½ current may not be transferred. This reinforces trust, {Time|Labour|Costs|Energy|Space} preventing a new financial crisis. It makes pyra­ mid schemes impossible, prevents the majority of current fraud, and provides you with a solid mortgage.

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 51 Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com By Johan Peter Paludan outside of theme Future Strategy in the Present – Part 1

The historian and the futurist can be u The following observations are based on what is now 33 years of work at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures said to study two sides of the same Studies. At this point I should probably note that the matter, specifically the present, writes Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies is a privately financed institute with the sorrows (financial worries) Johan Peter Paludan in this first ar­ and joys (knowing that people need what you do enough to be willing to pay for it) that this implies. 33 years ticle about the phenomenon of futures ago, the idea of privately financed futures studies was studies and its role in organizational a provocation, perhaps even a contradiction in terms. The concept of futures studies was seen as a ludicrous and strategic planning activity, associated with crystal balls and tea leaves. The provocative effect is now almost gone, and more and more identify themselves as ‘futurists’. Well, it’s not a protected title. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies occupies a special position in the gray area between universities and consultants. We lie closer to consultants given our customer-service focus (though I think university resear­ chers can also be quite focused on grants), deadline requirements, lack of peer review (we are instead sub­ ject to internal review and the review that lies in being dependent on a market), a philosophy that focuses more on being useful than on stringency, and fewer formali­ zed documentation requirements. On the other hand, we lie closer to universities given our analytic, knowledge- intense and long-term approach. We even think we are better at cross-disciplinary work than the universities (some would suggest that this doesn’t say much!) Finally, we lie closer to the consultancy world in that our work is mainly teamwork, whereas the universities have more ‘lone riders’ who receive the glory – or the blame. This is not the case at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. A few (former) employees have had other views, but I would like to stress that the following observations are based on my many years as a member of the ‘team’ that was and is the Institute. According to its statutes, the mission of the Copen­ hagen Institute for Futures Studies is to conduct futures studies with a particular focus on Danish business. This is, for example, achieved by contributing to the strategic development of Danish companies. It is hence relevant to know what futures studies is and is not. In the following, I will illuminate the nature of futures studies by compa­ ring futurists with those who work at the other end of the temporal spectrum: historians.

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 53 Future Strategy in the Present – Part 1 - By Johan Peter Paludan

Pedagogical opening unable to act and unfit to make decisions. You don’t die Strategy is usually about the future. However, the past from ignoring the past, though it is said that you then are may also be seen in a strategic light. Take, for instance, doomed to repeat it. A somewhat more ‘futurist humble’ recent interpretations of Denmark’s conduct between conclusion is probably that both extensions of the pre­ 1940-45 or during the Cold War. These periods of the sent (into past and future) are important. It is the past past are reinterpreted in order to orient us in the present. and the present that form the basis of the answers to the Overall, after many years as a futurist, I must say that questions we ask of the future. ‘History learns everything the relationships between past, present and future seem and nothing’ is a quotation I distantly remember from a increasingly complex. As the writer William Gibson said, lesson in international politics by Erling Bjøl. This gives ‘the future is already here, but it is unevenly distributed’. the futurist free range and perhaps points once again to My present is the past to some and the future to others. the primacy of the present: we use the elements of the The future doesn’t exist; nor does the past; and the past that the present finds interesting to ask new questi­ present is so transient or narrow that you could throw ons about the future. doubts on its existence, too. The historian and the futurist can be said to study dif­ One can get lost in that sort of philosophical reflection, ferent sides of the same subject: the present. Because of but life must be lived, decisions made, and we must this, a futurist may see an historian as colleague of a sort. move on. The working hypothesis is that we are always I once suggested to a historian that there was a basis for situated in the present and that what happens in the a common trade union or at least professional associa­ present is crucial to our perceptions of past and future. tion that could be called ‘time studiers’. The historian This hegemony of the present over past and future exists rejected this proposal with the argument that the study because it is always the present that asks the questions, of the past was a science while futurists were charlatans. and it is the questions that are asked that largely deter­ Historians may thus find it overbearing that the futurist mine the answers we receive. This is doubly true of our compares himself to the historian, but this doesn’t pre­ present society, which some call the information society. vent us from being inspired by them and their reflections The information society means that there is an infinity over their discipline’s purpose. of answers, which makes the ability to ask good ques­ In an essay,1 Ian Mortimer outlines the three dialogues tions crucial – and it is the present that determines which that a historian may participate in: ques­tions are good. · A dialogue with the past. This was originally seen as The present asks questions of the past regarding what essential. once was, and new present contexts ask new questi­ · A dialogue with the historian’s own present. This dia­ ons. This power of the present also governs the future. logue is not always acknowledged. Decisions must be made in the present. You can’t make · A dialogue with himself, which potentially can provide decisions in the past, though I can imagine that many in significant new insight. the financial sector might currently wish they had such an opportunity! Indeed, I even have a few things I would Let us see where we get if we use the same systematic like to get fixed if it were possible to make decisions in method in defining futures studies. the past, but this is unfortunately not the case. We are all limited to the present when making decisi­ Dialogue with the past – and the future ons, but they must be implemented in the future. Hence, First, the historian engages in a dialogue with the past. all decisions must necessarily be based on some assump­ This is done using a meticulous investigation of historical tions about the future in which they will be carried out. sources and complex methods of analysis and criticism. It may be tempting to conclude that ideas about the past New data and new techniques can change the historian’s are ‘nice to have’, while expectations of the future are view of the past. You have one view of history until new ‘need to have’. This conclusion is true to the extent that, discoveries from the past eventually provide another. without expectations or notions of the future, we are This is of course grossly simplified, but the basic task is

54 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Future Strategy in the Present – Part 1 - By Johan Peter Paludan

As the writer William Gibson said, ‘the future is already The historian and the here, but it is une­ futurist can be said to venly distributed’. study different sides My present is the of the same subject: past to some and the the present. Because future to others. The of this, a futurist may future doesn’t exist; see a historian as nor does the past; colleague of a sort. I and the present is so once suggested to an transient or narrow historian that there that you could throw was a basis for a doubts on its existen- common trade union ce, too or at least professio- nal association that could be called ‘time studiers’

to reproduce the past ‘wie es eigentlich war’, as it truly that there is just one single past. While there may only was. be one past, at any given time there are many different A parallel to futures studies is difficult because it is ideas about the past. Therefore, a bundle of sticks might hard to find any futurist today willing to stick his neck be a better metaphor than the broom, if fascism hadn’t out and postulate that it is possible to determine ‘wie es patented this particular symbol. eigentlich sein wird’, how it truly is going to be. But per­ haps there aren’t all that many historians of ‘truth’ left, Prognoses are what come closest to ‘wie es eigentlich either. There once were historians of ‘truth’ and, in this sein wird’. However, prognoses, seen as clear and precise sense, there are futurists of ‘truth’ today. They are called descriptions of the future, rarely make sense beyond fortune tellers and astrologers, and let them believe what the very short term. This is because prognoses always they want. represent a projection of the past into the future, and the My first teacher in the art of futures studies,2 Torben more you extend the past into the future, the more likely Bo Jansen, liked to use a broom as a metaphor for time, it is that reality will turn out to have a different idea. with the stick as the past, the binding of the broom as However, projections of the past into the future can at the present, and all the broom hairs representing the times have a pedagogical function by pointing out areas infinitude of possible developments we face at any where something must happen. Even where the futurist given moment. This model may falter because it posits is on safest ground, when working with demographic

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 55 Future Strategy in the Present – Part 1 - By Johan Peter Paludan

It may be tempting to conclude that ideas about the past are ‘nice to have’, while expectations of the future are a ‘must have’. This conclusion is true to the extent that, without expectations or notions of the future, we are unable to act and unfit to make decisions

development, uncertainty increases the longer you try lation, which includes 3rd and 4th generation immigrants, to look ahead. A projection of, for instance, the number ignores the social adaptation and integration that takes of 25-64 years old in Denmark can be most certain for place. My grandmother was Norwegian. Does this make the next 25 years, based on particular assumptions about me an immigrant? When prognoses are not good, or at mortality and immigration patterns. It is also useful least not good for much, and strategies must be made in to point out the challenges that arise from this: Either the present to function in the future, what then? Then productivity must increase dramatically or the inflow of we have megatrends – the crutches of the futurist. labour must be significantly increased in order to negate the prognosis. From uncertain prognoses to megatrends Another example can be found with the ongoing Megatrends are, at least as viewed at the Copenhagen debate about tax reform and the truth that is now estab­ Institute for Futures Studies,3 broad trends with a high lished – at least among economists – that people who level of durability, which due to their breadth can in prin­ get to keep a larger proportion of their pay through a ciple affect everything and due to their durability can be reduction of top-bracket taxes almost automatically will expected to apply in the long term – 10 to 15 years. They work more hours. This is a claim about a reliable con­ are crutches because the future IS unpredictable, but you nection between effort and reward. Not only does this are horsewhipped to try anyway, and some things do overlook those who already work as much as they can; it move forward with greater durability than other things. also ignores the possibility that the connection between In a Germanic academic tradition, this definition is rather effort and reward may be influenced by how rich you are vague. Here, I choose the Anglo-Saxon tradition, perhaps and that the exchange between money and time may be best illustrated by an American judge, who said about more complex. This is not an argument against (or for) another hard-to-define subject, pornography, that ‘it is reducing top-bracket taxes, but an argument against beli­ hard to define but you know it when you see it’. eving that the optimal conclusion is guaranteed. A point At the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, we to be made about the top-bracket tax discussion is that it currently operate with 15 megatrends: knowledge, acce­ takes place in a society that by now is so complex that it leration, new technology, hypercomplexity, globalization, at times becomes necessary to conduct experiments and commercialization, economic growth, democratization, be ready to abandon prior conclusions if it becomes clear individualization, immaterialization, network economy, that they fail to live up to the expectations. This requires health, the environment, resources, and ageing. bold political management; i.e., a willingness to resist the I won’t go into these megatrends in detail here. After findings of polls and focus groups. all, most are probably self-evident. The typical megatrend A third example could be the prognosis of the immi­ is in principle quite banal, but it must be in order to live grant population in Denmark towards 2050. One can get up to the definition, however vague it may be. Therefore, the impression that such a prognosis also has an ideolo­ the art is to consider the concrete possibilities for the gical effect, namely to warn against present-day immigra­ company that must consider the future in which its stra­ tion. Such a simplistic projection of the immigrant popu­ tegy will function. This is where it is important to com­

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The megatrend is rather that there are an increasing num- ber of products that customers are unwil- ling to pay for

bine the futurist’s general approach with the company’s trend really should be called ‘a need for new business specific expertise. Futurists will always be generalists in models’, but ‘free’ probably sounds sexier. This trend relation to companies, which focus on a single activity is promoted by other existing megatrends, including in or a group of related activities. However, this isn’t solely particular new technology (digitalization and automa­ a handicap, but also an advantage, since companies may tion) and a rubbing-off effect from other areas that have have developed blinkers towards certain elements of rea­ always been ‘free’, such as radio. lity, and then the futurist may at times be the little boy in The other prospect is a phenomenon, which could the story “The Emperor’s New Clothes”. be called ‘more chiefs and fewer Indians’ or ‘the over- The established list of megatrends is guided by the sub­ administrated society’. This trend is brought about by a jects and companies with which we work. If the Institute, combination of automation, which makes many ‘Indians’ for example, had been involved with UN organizations, superfluous, information technology, which makes cen­ the megatrend of urbanization would have been crucial. tralized control more possible, and the increasing power In light of the regional development of Denmark, with a of lawyers in society. I lack a fitting, preferably deroga­ polarization between the capital region and ‘the Eastern tory, term for this trend. Jutland metropolis’ on the one hand, and Western Jutland, Southern Jutland and the islands (often together This article is an edited version of an article by the same name, which called ‘the rotten banana’) on the other hand, it can be appeared in the book Strategi & driftsøkonomi (Gyldendal Business argued that urbanization actually is a Danish megatrend. 2009), a commemorative book for Professor Ole Øhlenschlæger Madsen, Institute for Economy, Aarhus University. The second part of the article Even though megatrends are stable, long-term trends, will be published in FO/Futureorientation #2, 2010. they aren’t eternal. We can imagine both that they will cease to be and that they will become so banal that they JOHAN PETER PALUDAN is the director of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. He mainly works to communicate the Institute’s results lack the power to inspire. through lectures and courses in Denmark, the Nordic countries, greater Finally, one could argue that the vagueness that cha­ Europe, and the United States. racterizes the megatrend definition makes it difficult to establish when a new phenomenon represents a new megatrend. At any rate, there are two ‘prospects’ on the horizon, to use an expression from another world where you also have to demonstrate your ability before you can become accepted. One is ‘free’, as promoted by, for instance, Chris Anderson from Wired magazine. This idea is in part false advertisement, since very little notes in the world is free. The megatrend is rather that there 1 times Literary Supplement, Sept. 26, 2008 are an increasing number of products that customers 2 it may be pretentious to call this an art, but an early work in futures studies is by Bertrand de Jouvenel and is called ‘L’art de la conjecture’ are unwilling to pay for. Then you must find alternative 3 Futures studies is still too new a discipline to make it possible to speak ways of financing these products. Therefore, the mega­ about fully established and accepted concept apparatuses

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 57 Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Visionary thinking - By Morten Paustian

outside of theme Visionary thinking – A philosophical trip with Clumsy Hans

The funny coincidences u Thoughts aren’t just isolated in the human skull, but contain impulses with ideas that fly around among other people. The thoughts vibrate out in the world and attempt to guide people forward to each other, so that encounters and events can become inspiring transacti­ ons. There is something that connects people beyond language and the familiar connections. When we think thoughts, we can experience that our thoughts connect us to other people. Our mindsets become living, imaginary beings that run around in the field, pollinating flowers. We know it all too well. We can have worked with a basic idea for some time, and suddenly there is an encounter, an event or a sudden change that makes our basic idea match a corresponding need in another person, a company or an organization. It happens when we are ready. The positive coincidence arises spontaneously and immediately when the perfect match presents the oppor­ tunity for a mutual experience of the effects of thought. Something has led people together, even if perhaps they never had anything to do with each other before. This type of occurrence is the encounter with the effects of thought. It is an image of an opening. With these types of experience, the effects of thought have predestined an encounter between people. The encounter is, so to speak, already planned before any of the parties know of it. We can speak of a process of reflection, where the reflection shapes the predestined encounter. Every time we give of ourselves, we actua­ lize our power. The power is brought forth as a thought process wherein these thoughts can create conditions for the growth of new ideas and initiatives that reflect the fairy-tale aspects of life. We can use Hans Christian Andersen’s fairy tale about Clumsy Hans to describe the journey you go on when you let yourself be led by positi­ ve coincidences. It is a journey that prepares us for what will come.

Clumsy Hans and the predestined encounter In best ’Clumsy Hans’ style we can move around with an open mind for what will come. A current of power trans­ mitted by another person may hit us without either party being aware of it. We may be in movement towards the castle where the princess waits and smiles gracefully. She is involved in selecting her chosen prince, and as we may remember, this is the prince that has managed to catch her current of power. In a reflective position in

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 61 Visionary thinking - By Morten Paustian

We can have worked with a basic idea for some time, and suddenly there is an encounter, an event or a sudden change that makes our basic idea match a corresponding need in another person, a company or an organization. It happens when we are ready

his way to the castle, Clumsy Hans catches her current see her in what he encounters on his way. This is the pre­ and reflects it as an expression of her love. The attention destination that follows him to the door. Through a curi­ leads him forward to all sorts of thoughts, emotions and ous alertness, he knows what to expect. The future lies in ideas, which collectively prepare him with sufficient his attention, which is his compass on his journey to the insight into what is to come. castle. Clumsy Hans can do it all, and he has brought it all His practice is basically very simple. He doesn’t with him in time. He moves intuitively and knows what attempt to hide anything or leave things unsaid. He the graceful princess needs. He knows that he can learn basically seeks the truth in himself and others. His imme­ to match it. As if his journey was a dance with her cur­ diate character bears witness to a gesture towards what rent, he collects all the good answers. He prepares him­ will happen. He knows that he will be prepared for what self for the big encounter. He may be clumsy, and lacking will come if he follows his immediate impulses. He has in social graces, but there is nothing wrong with his intu­ experienced this process many times before. Hence, he ition. Reality shows him the way. Without any thought also follows the impulses he encounters on his way to the of how anything fits into any specific shape, he uses his castle. He experiences strong emotions before meeting intuition – it is his best tool, and he chooses to follow it people. He can have thoughts that seem unrecognizable – as stubbornly as a mule. overall, he sees life as a riddle filled with omens, signals, Clumsy Hans experiences being welcomed by the encounters, and patterns that show him the way. This is princess. He immediately catches the princess’ attention his preparedness. He continually practices to become bet­ by showing her what he can give her. He has transfor­ ter at using this preparedness, but it takes a lot of energy med her needs into tools that can be used for a life in a to follow his intuition. Nonetheless, he gradually learns whirl of pleasures. She falls for him like a ton of bricks. to perceive what the future offers him, precisely because She wants him, and him alone. The other candidates his starting point is the immediate, everyday experiences. may be nice and noble with their dark, pinstriped suits, a gleam of pomade in the hair, and their principles An impeccable practice poli­shed for the occasion. However, they have nothing Clumsy Hans doesn’t think strategically in a classical special to offer – they are all trained by the cultural elite sense. His experience is that too many people make that values euphemisms of politeness over the meat of decisions on the basis of how other people would react the encounter. She knows that with Clumsy Hans life or on what their opinions might be about this and that. won’t be boring. His artfulness gives her the attention Clumsy Hans does not desire to become part of a peer she needs because he manages to go by intuition. He can group in which the rope of equality makes people fall in

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The goal is what comes out of it – neither more nor less. The goal is a process. Nevertheless, there is a ten- dency for people to choose the familiar and well tested over making experimentation an integrated part of their life

line. Clumsy Hans thinks with his heart. This liberates donkey. His ability to connect bits and pieces shows that his thoughts, and he needs that. The signals he catches he uses his creativity. He has learned that an eclectic and builds on come from the heart. He builds bridges approach equals a visionary approach. This has rubbed between people’s hearts. When you meet Clumsy Hans, many people the wrong way, but his experience has told you will thus be able to recognize him by his ability to him that, on his way to the castle, he will meet people say what you think. Skilled is the person that manages who can indirectly guide him along the right path. to read your thoughts. He is masterful in the language of Clumsy Hans is helped by his immediate impulses. thought and seeks liberty through this. He continually remains one step behind in order to fore­ His ability to think with his heart originates from see events and meet the next step. This means that his many years of isolation from the surrounding world. eclectic approach has honed his ability to listen to other Here, he practiced thinking himself free through a con­ people. Through this, he has learned to think visionary tinuous flowering of new ideas and emotions. Here, he thoughts. He indirectly foresees what he will encounter. discovered the possibility to feel what others feel from He knows that what he encounters today he will need a physical distance, think what others think, and in tomorrow. This equips him with security and a feeling of general to connect to other people in their absence. All positive forward motion. these years were a training camp where he learned that Clumsy Hans moves through a wondrous world. It there were parallels between the experiences of different can be a real fairy tale. He is constantly in motion, and people. Clumsy Hans took note of the impulses and pre­ his body is always filled with ideas and thoughts. The monitions that could engender clarity and insight into daytime is sometimes too short, so he also uses the night future events. He used his immediate forward motion and wakes in the morning with dreams in his memory. to develop a method that could be used to lift others Sometimes, it can also become too much for him. Hence, through creative thinking. He could simply move people he also finds a release in writing poems, drawing figures, at a distance by moving himself in a new direction, all painting random things, taking strolls with his notebook, because of the connection on a mental level. meditating in silence, and playing sports. All are activi­ Clumsy Hans encountered more and more of his own ties that create an effect through their impulsiveness. It kind as the years went by. They all live empowered by is very important for Clumsy Hans to find ways to create their power supply. A true Clumsy Hans manages to or be with others, and the above can be examples of this. become a part of the process and always uses himself to When Clumsy Hans isn’t riding, he’s walking on his evaluate the meaning of something. Like a true eclectic, ideas. Clumsy Hans collects things around himself. This doesn’t necessarily make him a hoarder; it is more an expression The blind collection of his passion for the sensual and the literal. He likes to He chooses his future by his own lights. Through follo­ pull out tools depending on what is needed. His empathy wing the eclectic approach he makes visionary thinking shows itself in his ability to be led by moods and emo­ available. When he collects thoughts and ideas, he does it tions. In this sense, he is a soldier of fortune riding a so that they can reflect the need for what is to come. This

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 63 Visionary thinking - By Morten Paustian

The visionary mode of thought is in dire straits right now because of the Lean fetishism. It is in sharp contrast to uniformity. It is by definition without precedent, and for this reason it will always make a difference compared to ‘business as usual’. This alone makes it necessary in a time in which everybody does the same things

means that he can retrospectively follow a development The character behind the thoughts of visionary thought through becoming aware of his Clumsy Hans is a whimsical fellow. He is very much own awareness. This doubling happens automatically. It his own man. He acts, if at all possible, from the mood shows the way. Thus, the eclectic approach might also be and emotion he feels. Some might say he is altogether said to be wise in the sense that it forms a reflection of unpredictable and an abuser of others’ confidence. Others the other’s need. Clumsy Hans knows that all the time he might understand that he tries to find connections in will be met by things that can prepare him for what will the thoughts and emotions he encounters on his way to happen. It is simply a matter of devotion and hence a what is to come. His nature is to counteract the pitfalls of blind acceptance of what shows itself to him. reality and instead pare problems down to the essentials. This blind collection means that he chooses with his This brings him closer to his actual power. The balance emotions. We don’t know what the future holds; but is recreated from emotion and clarity of thought. Clumsy Clumsy Hans thinks that, once we have used eclecticism Hans can at first seem flighty and distant, but he is actu­ sufficiently many times, the likely future will become ally always lucid and very aware of the signals his body clearer and clearer. When we choose on the basis of what sends him. inspires us, a pattern will arise. This pattern, seen in He is equipped with all sorts of safety valves that auto­ retrospect, will form an insight into how we can shape matically kick in when needed. This is a part of his pre­ similar tools for the needs and desires we might face. By paredness when he moves in the world. His body never­ finding inspiration to solve his own problems or chal­ theless tells him on an emotional level what the thoughts lenges, Clumsy Hans will always be able to find solutions and words of others mean, and he follows this rather to others’ problems of a similar character. When Clumsy than the written word. Clumsy Hans feels very concretely Hans grows older, this will make him a wise king. on his body what others tell him. There is a direct input- His visionary thinking is implicit in his immediate output relation that indicates the emotional significance interaction with others and in his immediate devotion of what others say. to what happens around him. Clumsy Hans is of the This gives Clumsy Hans the opportunity to decide opinion that the future is decided for us depending on whether something is important or not. It provides an the path we choose to walk – and the path we will learn insight into the context for what is said, and it makes along the way. Clumsy Hans has experienced countless him open to new ideas and thoughts about the other coincidences between the thought currents he encounters person. The tracks Clumsy Hans leaves behind hence and events to come. He thus perceives that the future also bear witness to his attention and his immediacy. lies implicitly in the collection of ideas and thoughts He is no lazy bastard, but rather a diligent, independent that show themselves to him. When he grows stubborn, audiograph who finds the essence in the thoughts people he forces an argument, which exposes the remaining think. He is trained to do that. uncertainty that people might have regarding their own intuition. His argument is that this isn’t anything parti­ What, then, is visionary thinking? cular to him. This is basically a way we can experience The spoken or the written word is always encrypted by the world, no matter who we are. However, there is emotion, and it is this emotion that makes the thoughts little room for doctrinaires in this regard. They worship mobile and a manifestation of the effect of thought. distance over love. They don’t want to be felt – only Clumsy Hans and the description of his method express a branded. form that presupposes predestination. This is the central

64 fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO Visionary thinking - By Morten Paustian

premise for being able to explain pre-knowledge of what self-preservation, which among other things are imple­ is to come. Everything else is loose claims and contracti­ mented under the heading ‘Lean’. Lean is an example of ons of random categories of consciousness. the organizational decay that renders decision processes Visionary thinking requires a creation process whe­ demands for order. The result of this decay is ‘business as reby we use our intuition to produce insight into what usual’, and the importance of creative processes and the will happen. We get inspiration, impulses and emotions unique understanding of such processes possessed by the that must form the basis for developing new products, Clumsy Hanses become hidden away in the drawer like programs or concepts that can match the needs that unused windfall apples. The visionary mode of thought is will emerge in the future. The world needs more people in dire straits right now because of the Lean fetishism. It like Clumsy Hans. The world needs a true movement. is in sharp contrast to uniformity. It is by definition with­ We need to be able to move freely according to our out precedent, and for this reason it will always make immediacy; i.e., daring to choose spontaneously with a difference compared to ‘business as usual’. This alone a corresponding emotion of enjoyment. In this sense, makes it necessary in a time in which everybody does the we can master our own future and, rather than being same things. impressed by the noble human being, can learn to choose To sum it up, we can say that visionary thinking meets the strength in being. This can meet the need for future the demand to recreate the fairy tale in our lives. On the ability. In this way, it is possible to become a futurist, for one hand, visionary thinking enables us to describe the whom forward motion creates new ideas and insight that future based on the impulses we encounter. On the other is made available to the public. hand, it is a method that enables us to realize a particular The goal is what comes out of it – neither more nor vision. Clumsy Hans has shown us the synthesis. He pre­ less. The goal is a process. Nevertheless, there is a tenden­ pares himself for what is to come by allowing himself to cy for people to choose the familiar and well tested over be influenced by sudden impulses. His special ability to making experimentation an integrated part of their life. consider himself in relation to reality makes him impor­ Instead of walking a tightrope in relation to a commu­ tant. He shows us a mode of being that can be used in nity of thought, whereby we join a circle of people who the world of art to test new interpretation spaces for a don’t want to be subjected to being alone, we must value thinking practice. the need for the unique higher than the need for the mediocre. More and more people select to choose their MORTEN PAUSTIAN has an MSc in business philosophy. He is the owner own future rather than making a multilateral agreement. of the company Pantheon Filosofi and studies the effect of thought, among other ideas. He has a particular focus on applied philosophy and Clumsy Hans did not give in to the nice and noble. He has extensive experience with original thinking and business develop- wanted the princess, and he got her because he was faith­ ment. ful to the effect of thoughts and the connections they could disclose. Visionary thinking will likely become a future way of thought that takes over when strength is chosen. It is a way of seeing the world in a manner according to which the important thing is to acquire the ability to challenge others with new ideas, projects and organizations. This can counteract the predictability and artificial instinct for

fo#01 2010 www.iff.dk/FO 65 Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com Designed by Jacque Fresco, www.thevenusproject.com

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