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Future Reflective Backcasting’ Enabling environmental activists to identify and refine their objectives by using ‘future reflective backcasting’ Lisa George Department of Design Goldsmiths University of London 2011 Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Design Declaration I certify that except where due acknowledgement has been made; the material produced in this thesis is that of the author alone. The work has not been submitted previously, in whole or in part, to qualify for any other academic award. The content of this thesis is the result of work carried out since the official commencement date of the approved research program. Page 2 Abstract Future narratives can be a useful way of conceptualising environmental problems and constructing solutions. Existing ecological future narratives such as sustainable futures and global warming have been effective at relaying the seriousness and scale of ecological problems but they can also be ambiguous, overwhelming and lead to stasis. In this research, I explore backcasting as a useful mechanism for creating detailed preferred futures and mapping out how those future states can be realised. During my exploration of backasting processes, I identify the possibility for backcasting to move beyond a simple outcome-driven process and instead become a process that creates a space for reflection, formulating and reformulating solutions. I examine four case studies: Cradle-to-Cradle, Transition Towns, Melbourne 2032 and case study 4 which involves 5 workshops in 3 secondary schools. These illustrations present how the creation of alternative futures can be used to address ecological problems. I developed, tested and participated in a variation of backcasting, called future reflective backcasting, in a workshop format. The workshop was enabled by my involvement in an activist group called Culture Jammers. My involvement with Culture Jammers not only reflected and encouraged my growing concern about environmental issues but it also motivated my interest in how small groups respond to such issues. In the workshop, participants generated preferred future states that shaped conversational exchanges which helped them to critically reflect on existing circumstances and identify actions to take in the present. Based on the case studies and participant feedback, I produced a set of recommendations detailing how the future reflective backcasting workshop model should be conducted as well as how to set up and manage the future reflective conversational exchanges. This thesis contributes new knowledge to academic research by identifying a form of backcasting that has not been acknowledged in futures literature or design practice. Page 3 Acknowledgements I would not have been able to finish this PhD without the help of Professor Bill Gaver who voluntarily stepped in during a difficult period towards the end of the process. I also owe gratitude to Dr Jennifer Gabrys and Professor John Wood for their knowledge and guidance through the earlier stages of the research. I would like to give special thanks to Ann Schlachter for her support at the start of my PhD through her inimitable way of cutting through bureaucracy; John Backwell and Tony Lawler for their on-going morale support and the occasional ‘hallway tutorial’. I am also very grateful to Alan Bright for his boundless generosity while I was conducting the secondary school workshops. Finally, I would like to thank my family (mum, Joseph, Gabriel and Naomi) and close friends for giving me everything I needed. Page 4 Published Papers George, L., 2009. Designing from the Future: A Design Narrative for Environmental Problem Solving. INTA-SEGA (International Network for Tropical Architecture - Sustainable and Green Architecture) Conference . 2-4 December 2009, Bangkok, Thailand. George, L., 2009. A Model for 'Wishful Thinking' in Environmental Problem Solving. Future of the Consumer Society Conference. The 11 th International Conference from the Finland Futures Research Centre and Finland Futures Academy. 28-29 May 2009, Tampere, Finland. Page 5 Contents ABSTRACT ............................................................................................... 3 CONTENTS ............................................................................................... 6 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................... 8 LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................. 10 1.1.1. Research Questions................................................................. 13 1.1.2. Future and Vision Oriented Approaches ..................................... 14 1.1.3. The Engaged-Uncertain Environmental Activist ........................... 16 1.1.4. Research Deficit...................................................................... 17 1.1.5. In Relation to Design ............................................................... 18 1.1.6. Terms & Scope ....................................................................... 19 1.1.7. Futures in Time ...................................................................... 22 1.1.8. Research Overview in Chapters ................................................ 25 CHAPTER 2: ECOLOGICAL FUTURE META-NARRATIVES ......................... 28 2.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................. 28 2.1.1 Sustainable Futures ................................................................. 29 2.1.2 The Environment as Risk .......................................................... 31 2.1.3 Preferred Narrative Deficit ........................................................ 34 2.1.4 Ecotopian Futures .................................................................... 35 2.1.5 From Eco-futures to Backcasting ................................................ 38 2.2 SUMMARY ....................................................................................... 38 CHAPTER 3: BACKCASTING ................................................................... 40 3.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 40 3.2 DESIGNING TOWARDS FUTURES .............................................................. 40 3.3 PREFERRED FUTURING IN THEORY ............................................................ 42 3.3.1 Models for ‘Wishful Thinking’ ..................................................... 43 3.4 BACKCASTING ................................................................................... 47 3.4.1 Backcasting in Environmentalism ............................................... 53 3.5 RECONTEXTUALISING SOLUTION CREATING PROCESSES .................................... 62 3.6 THE FUTURE REFLECTIVE BACKCASTING APPROACH ......................................... 63 3.7 FUTURES AS UNLIMITED SCOPES OF POSSIBILITIES ......................................... 64 3.8 NON – EXPERTS .................................................................................. 65 3.9 SUMMARY ......................................................................................... 66 CHAPTER 4: METHODS .......................................................................... 67 4.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 67 4.2 OVERVIEW ...................................................................................... 68 4.2.1 Staged Moments of Knowledge Creation ..................................... 70 4.2.2 Practice through Action Research ............................................... 70 4.2.3 Emergent Theories Grounded in Data ......................................... 71 4.3 METHODS ........................................................................................ 72 4.3.1 Semi-Structured Interviews ...................................................... 72 4.3.2 Secondary Material .................................................................. 74 4.3.3 Photograph as Narrative ........................................................... 74 4.4 ETHICS AND VALIDITY ......................................................................... 74 4.4.1 Ethics ..................................................................................... 74 4.4.2 The Reflexive Self .................................................................... 76 Page 6 4.4.3 Triangulation ........................................................................... 76 4.4.4 Validity and Generalisability ...................................................... 76 4.5 SUMMARY ....................................................................................... 77 CHAPTER 5: CASE STUDIES ................................................................... 79 5.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 79 5.2 THE CASE STUDY APPROACH .................................................................. 79 5.3 CASE ONE ....................................................................................... 82 CRADLE -TO -CRADLE – DISSECTING THE VISION ................................................. 82 5.3.1 Designing with love for the future .............................................. 83 5.3.2 Cradle-to-Cradle Material Flow .................................................. 84 5.3.3 From Rhetoric to Reality: The Herman Miller Company ................. 88 5.3.4 The Mirra chair Design Scenario ................................................
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