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Advancing a Toolkit of Diverse Futures Approaches for Global Environmental Assessments City Research Online City, University of London Institutional Repository Citation: Pereira, L. ORCID: 0000-0002-4996-7234, Kuiper, J., Selomane, O., Aguiar, A. P. D., Asrar, G., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Calvin, K., Hedden, S., Hsu, A., Jabbour, J., King, N., Köberle, A., Lucas, P., Nel, J., Norstrom, A. V., Peterson, G., Sitas, N., Trisos, C., van Vuuren, D., Vervoort, J. and Ward, J. (2021). Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments. Ecosystems and People, 17(1), pp. 191- 204. doi: 10.1080/26395916.2021.1901783 This is the published version of the paper. This version of the publication may differ from the final published version. Permanent repository link: https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/26133/ Link to published version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2021.1901783 Copyright: City Research Online aims to make research outputs of City, University of London available to a wider audience. Copyright and Moral Rights remain with the author(s) and/or copyright holders. URLs from City Research Online may be freely distributed and linked to. Reuse: Copies of full items can be used for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge. Provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. City Research Online: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/ [email protected] Ecosystems and People ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tbsm22 Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments Laura Pereira, Jan J. Kuiper, Odirilwe Selomane, Ana Paula D. Aguiar, Ghassem R. Asrar, Elena M. Bennett, Reinette Biggs, Katherine Calvin, Steve Hedden, Angel Hsu, Jason Jabbour, Nicholas King, Alexandre C. Köberle, Paul Lucas, Jeanne Nel, Albert V. Norström, Garry Peterson, Nadia Sitas, Christopher Trisos, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Joost Vervoort & James Ward To cite this article: Laura Pereira, Jan J. Kuiper, Odirilwe Selomane, Ana Paula D. Aguiar, Ghassem R. Asrar, Elena M. Bennett, Reinette Biggs, Katherine Calvin, Steve Hedden, Angel Hsu, Jason Jabbour, Nicholas King, Alexandre C. Köberle, Paul Lucas, Jeanne Nel, Albert V. Norström, Garry Peterson, Nadia Sitas, Christopher Trisos, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Joost Vervoort & James Ward (2021) Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments, Ecosystems and People, 17:1, 191-204, DOI: 10.1080/26395916.2021.1901783 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2021.1901783 © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa Published online: 14 Apr 2021. UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 1271 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=tbsm22 ECOSYSTEMS AND PEOPLE 2021, VOL. 17, NO. 1, 191–204 https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2021.1901783 RESEARCH: TEN YEARS OF PROGRAM ON ECOSYSTEM CHANGE AND SOCIETY Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments Laura Pereira a,b,c, Jan J. Kuiper c, Odirilwe Selomane b,c, Ana Paula D. Aguiarc,d, Ghassem R. Asrare, Elena M. Bennett f, Reinette Biggs b,c, Katherine Calving, Steve Heddenh, Angel Hsui, Jason Jabbourj,k, Nicholas Kingl, Alexandre C. Köberlem,n, Paul Lucaso, Jeanne Nelp,q, Albert V. Norström c, Garry Peterson c, Nadia Sitas b, Christopher Trisosr,s, Detlef P. van Vuurena,o, Joost Vervoort a and James Wardt aCopernicus Institute, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands; bCentre for Complex Systems in Transition, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa; cStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; dInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, Brazil; eUniversities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA; fDepartment of Natural Resource Sciences and Bieler School of Environment, McGill University, Montreal, Canada; gJoint Global Change Research Institute/Pacific Northwest National Lab, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; hPardee Center, University of Colorado, Denver, CO, USA; iEnvironmental Studies, Yale-NUS College, Singapore, Singapore; jRegional Office for North America, United Nations Environment Programme, Washington, DC, USA; kTechnischen Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; lResearch Unit for Environmental Assessment & Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa; mEnergy Planning Program (Programa de Planejamento Energético, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; nGrantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK; oPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands; pEnvironmental Research, Wageningen University Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; qSustainability Research Unit, Nelson Mandela University, George, South Africa; rSESYNC, University of Maryland, Anapolis, MD, USA; sAfrican Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; tEnvironmental Engineering, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are in a unique position to influence environmental Received 30 July 2020 decision-making in the context of sustainability challenges. To do this effectively, however, Accepted 5 March 2021 new methods are needed to respond to the needs of decision-makers for a more integrated, EDITED BY contextualized and goal-seeking evaluation of different policies, geared for action from global Matthias Schröter to local. While scenarios are an important tool for GEAs to link short-term decisions and medium and long-term consequences, these current information needs cannot be met only KEYWORDS through deductive approaches focused on the global level. In this paper, we argue that Global environmental a more diverse set of futures tools operating at multiple scales are needed to improve GEA assessments; scenarios; scenario development and analysis to meet the information needs of policymakers and other models; futures; SDGs; SDG17 partnerships to stakeholders better. Based on the literature, we highlight four challenges that GEAs need to achieve the Goal < UN be able to address in order to contribute to global environmental decision-making about the sustainable development future: 1. anticipate unpredictable future conditions; 2. be relevant at multiple scales, 3. goals include diverse actors, perspectives and contexts; and 4. leverage the imagination to inspire action. We present a toolbox of future-oriented approaches and methods that can be used to effectively address the four challenges currently faced by GEAs. 1. Introduction trajectories globally (Jabbour and Flachsland 2017). By Can enough healthy food for all be provided while sus­ GEAs, we refer to ‘largescale, highly deliberative pro­ taining the biosphere? What role do different technologies cesses where experts are convened to distill, synthesize, and actors play in achieving this goal? Can globalisation interpret and organize existing scientific knowledge (on enhance inclusion and respect for bio-cultural diversity? environmental issues) to inform decision-making’ How do abrupt events affect sustainable trajectories of (Jabbour and Flachsland 2017, p. 193). development, and how do we anticipate their adverse GEAs are important for supporting governance pro­ impacts? These and other sustainability questions are cesses and are uniquely positioned to influence environ­ complex and interconnected, and answering them mental decision-making in a context of sustainability requires bridging diverse sources of experience and challenges. GEAs such as those published by the knowledge (Tengö et al. 2017). The challenge of brid­ IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), ging diverse ways of knowing is particularly pertinent in IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on the context of global environmental assessments Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) and the Global (GEAs), which have become an established feature of Environment Outlook (GEO) facilitated by the United the global knowledge landscape and find themselves in Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), aim to a unique position to shape sustainable development synthesize, distill and communicate existing information CONTACT Laura Pereira [email protected] © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. 192 L. PEREIRA ET AL. in ways that are relevant to decision makers and can help Vuuren et al. 2011; Riahi et al. 2017; Weyant 2017). governments to achieve consensus when negotiating These model-based scenarios have been instrumental complex international accords and agreements (e.g. the in pointing the international community to the exis­ Paris Climate Agreement and the United Nations 2030 tential crises of climate change and global biodiversity Agenda for Sustainable Development) (Jabbour and loss, how the two are interrelated, and broad strate­ Flachsland 2017). Towards that end, they aim to establish gies to address
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