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Cloudy Crystal Balls 1 Environmental issues series No 17 Cloudy crystal balls An assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models Experts’ corner report Prospects and scenarios No 4 This report has been prepared by: International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS) Sandra C.H. Greeuw Marjolein B.A. van Asselt Jasper Grosskurth Chantal A.M.H. Storms Nicole Rijkens-Klomp Dale S. Rothman Jan Rotmans November 2000 Project Manager of EEA: Teresa Ribeiro 2 Cloudy crystal balls: An assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models Cover design & layout: Folkmann Design A/S Legal notice The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission or other European Communities institutions. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. The EEA’s Experts’ corner reports The European Environment Agency (EEA) is mandated to provide information to the Community and the Member States, that will help them to identify, frame, implement and evaluate policies, legislation and other measures on the environment, and to keep the public properly informed about the state of the environment. In order to provide possible inputs to the developing work programme of the EEA, and to stimulate debate on issues that may contribute to the identification, framing and evaluation of environmental policy measures, the EEA, from time to time, asks independent experts to summarise their views on topical or upcoming issues, so that the EEA can consider publishing them as Experts’ corner reports. Experts’ corner reports do not necessarily reflect the views of the EEA, or of any other EU institution: they are the opinions of the author only. However, they are intended to facilitate the broader dissemination of more recent environmental information that may provide useful inputs into the developing environmental agenda. The EEA hopes, therefore, that they will be of interest to the Community, Member States and other environmental stakeholders, whose comments on the contents it would welcome. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu.int) ISBN: 92-9167-263-7 © EEA, Copenhagen, 2000 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Denmark Printed on recycled and chlorine-free bleached paper European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 DK-1050 Copenhagen K Denmark Tel: +45 33 36 71 00 Fax: +45 33 36 71 99 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.eea.eu.int 3 Contents Forword ..................................................................................................................... 5 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 6 1.1. Objectives ............................................................................................................... 6 1.2. Structure of the report............................................................................................ 6 2. State of the art in scenario studies ................................................................................. 7 2.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 7 2.2. What are scenarios?................................................................................................ 7 2.3. Use of scenarios ...................................................................................................... 8 2.4.Characteristics of scenarios ............................................................................................ 9 2.5. Scenario methods ................................................................................................. 10 2.6. Integrated assessment .......................................................................................... 11 3. Research approach........................................................................................................ 13 4. Selected models ............................................................................................................ 16 4.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 16 4.2. Integrated models for the assessment of sustainability ........................................... 16 4.2.1. Meadows, Meadows and Randers (1972 and 1991), World 3 .................... 16 4.2.2. Barry B. Hughes (1999), International Futures ............................................ 17 4.2.3. Rotmans and de Vries (1997), TARGETS ..................................................... 17 4.2.4. Millenium Institute, Threshold 21 ........................................................................ 18 4.2.5. Raskin, Heaps and Sieber (1995, 1999) POLESTAR .................................... 18 4.2.6. SCRI University of British Columbia (1999), Quest ....................................... 18 4.3. Environment-energy models ................................................................................. 19 4.3.1. Alcamo et al. (1990), RAINS and RAINS-Asia .............................................. 19 4.3.2. IPCC (2000), multi-model approach for developing emissions scenarios ... 19 4.4.Economic-environmental models .................................................................................. 22 4.4.1. OECD, JOBS ............................................................................................... 22 4.4.2. Hertel and Tsigas (1997) GTAP.................................................................... 22 4.4.3. Valette, Capros and Smeers (1995) GEM-E3 .............................................. 22 4.4.4. CEC (1995), E3ME ....................................................................................... 23 4.4.5. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (1999), WorldScan .. 23 4.5. Conclusion............................................................................................................. 24 5. Selected Studies ............................................................................................................ 26 5.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 26 4 Cloudy crystal balls: An assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models 5.2. Description of the scenario studies ..................................................................26 5.2.1. WRR, (1992) Ground for choices............................................................. 26 5.2.2. R. Thord (1993), A study on the future of transportation ...................... 31 5.2.3. EFILWC (1994), The potential for employment opportunities ................32 5.2.4. ECN (1995), Energy scenarios for a changing Europe ............................35 5.2.5. H. McRae (1995), The World in 2020 ....................................................... 38 5.2.6. European Commission DGXI (1996), Vision 2020 ..................................... 40 5.2.7. European Commission DGXVII (1996), Energy in Europe ....................... 44 5.2.8. CPB (1997), Economy and physical environment .................................... 47 5.2.9. Smith (1997), Eurofutures .......................................................................48 5.2.10. OECD (1997), The World in 2020. Towards a new global age ............. 53 5.2.11. Stockholm Environment Institute and Global Scenario Group (1997), Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice ................. 55 5.2.12. Stockholm Environment Institute and Global Scenario Group (1998), Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability............................................. 57 5.2.13. Hammond (1998) Which world? Global destinations, regional choices .. 58 5.2.14. Nijkamp, Rienstra and Vleugel (1998), Transportation planning and the future ..................................................................................... 60 5.2.15. POSSUM Team (1998), POSSUM project .............................................. 64 5.2.16. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (1998), Exploring Sustainable Development. Global Scenarios 2000-2050................... 68 5.2.17. European Commission Forward Studies Unit (1999). Scenarios Europe 2010. Five possible futures for Europe ................................................ 70 5.2.18. IPCC, Working Group III (in preparation), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios............................................................. 73 5.2.19. Jackson Environment Institute (in preparation), Assessment of the potential effects of climate change in Europe: ACACIA project....................... 74 5.2.20. VISIONS team (in preparation), VISIONS project ..................................... 77 5.2.21. Millennium Assessment Steering Committee (to begin in mid 2000), Millennium Ecosystem Assessment ..................................................................... 82 5.2.22. Xerox Corporation (1999), Looking Inward. Visions of the 21st century family by students from around the world .............................. 83 6. Assessment ....................................................................................................................... 86 6.1. Introduction .....................................................................................................
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