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2019 Global Go to Think Tank Index Report
LEADING RESEARCH ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions. Led since 2013 by President Adam S. Posen, the Institute anticipates emerging issues and provides rigorous, evidence-based policy recommendations with a team of the world’s leading applied economic researchers. It creates freely available content in a variety of accessible formats to inform and shape public debate, reaching an audience that includes government officials and legislators, business and NGO leaders, international and research organizations, universities, and the media. The Institute was established in 1981 as the Institute for International Economics, with Peter G. Peterson as its founding chairman, and has since risen to become an unequalled, trusted resource on the global economy and convener of leaders from around the world. At its 25th anniversary in 2006, the Institute was renamed the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Institute today pursues a broad and distinctive agenda, as it seeks to address growing threats to living standards, rules-based commerce, and peaceful economic integration. COMMITMENT TO TRANSPARENCY The Peterson Institute’s annual budget of $13 million is funded by donations and grants from corporations, individuals, private foundations, and public institutions, as well as income on the Institute’s endowment. Over 90% of its income is unrestricted in topic, allowing independent objective research. The Institute discloses annually all sources of funding, and donors do not influence the conclusions of or policy implications drawn from Institute research. -
A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis∗
A crash course on the euro crisis∗ Markus K. Brunnermeier Ricardo Reis Princeton University LSE August 2019 Abstract The financial crises of the last twenty years brought new economic concepts into classroom discussions. This article introduces undergraduate students and teachers to seven of these models: (i) misallocation of capital inflows, (ii) modern and shadow banks, (iii) strategic complementarities and amplification, (iv) debt contracts and the distinction between solvency and liquidity, (v) the diabolic loop, (vi) regional flights to safety, and (vii) unconventional monetary policy. We apply each of them to provide a full account of the euro crisis of 2010-12. ∗Contact: [email protected] and [email protected]. We are grateful to Luis Garicano, Philip Lane, Sam Langfield, Marco Pagano, Tano Santos, David Thesmar, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Dimitri Vayanos for shaping our initial views on the crisis, to Kaman Lyu for excellent research assistance throughout, and to generations of students at Columbia, the LSE, and Princeton to whom we taught this material over the years, and who gave us comments on different drafts of slides and text. 1 Contents 1 Introduction3 2 Capital inflows and their allocation4 2.1 A model of misallocation..............................5 2.2 The seeds of the Euro crisis: the investment boom in Portugal........8 3 Channels of funding and the role of (shadow) banks 10 3.1 Modern and shadow banks............................ 11 3.2 The buildup towards the crisis: Spanish credit boom and the Cajas..... 13 4 The financial crash and systemic risk 16 4.1 Strategic complementarities, amplification, multiplicity, and pecuniary ex- ternalities...................................... -
Economics Annual Review 2018-2019
ECONOMICS REVIEW 2018/19 CELEBRATING FIRST EXCELLENCE AT YEAR LSE ECONOMICS CHALLENGE Faculty Interviews ALUMNI NEW PANEL APPOINTMENTS & VISITORS RESEARCH CENTRE BRIEFINGS 1 CONTENTS 2 OUR STUDENTS 3 OUR FACULTY 4 RESEARCH UPDATES 5 OUR ALUMNI 2 WELCOME TO THE 2018/19 EDITION OF THE ECONOMICS ANNUAL REVIEW This has been my first year as Head of the outstanding contributions to macroeconomics and Department of Economics and I am proud finance) and received a BA Global Professorship, will and honoured to be at the helm of such a be a Professor of Economics. John will be a School distinguished department. The Department Professor and Ronald Coase Chair in Economics. remains world-leading in education and research, Our research prowess was particularly visible in the May 2019 issue of the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and many efforts are underway to make further one of the top journals in the profession: the first four improvements. papers out of ten in that issue are co-authored by current colleagues in the Department and two more by We continue to attract an extremely talented pool of our former PhD students Dave Donaldson and Rocco students from a large number of applicants to all our Macchiavello. Rocco is now in the LSE Department programmes and to place our students in the most of Management, as is Noam Yuchtman, who published sought-after jobs. This year, our newly-minted PhD another paper in the same issue. This highlights how student Clare Balboni made us particularly proud by the strength of economics is growing throughout LSE, landing a job as Assistant Professor at MIT, one of the reinforcing our links to other departments as a result. -
The Systemic Risk of European Banks During the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Papers Number 1083 July 2013 The Systemic Risk of European Banks during the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises Lamont Black Ricardo Correa Xin Huang Hao Zhou NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at www.ssrn.com. The Systemic Risk of European Banks during the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises∗ Lamont Black,y Ricardo Correa,z Xin Huang,x and Hao Zhou{ This Version: July 2013 Abstract We propose a hypothetical distress insurance premium (DIP) as a measure of the European banking systemic risk, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, de- fault probability, and interconnectedness. Based on this measure, the systemic risk of European banks reached its height in late 2011 around e 500 billion. We find that the sovereign default spread is the factor driving this heightened risk in the banking sector during the European debt crisis. The methodology can also be used to identify the individual contributions of over 50 major European banks to the systemic risk measure. This approach captures the large contribution of a number of systemically important European banks, but Italian and Spanish banks as a group have notably increased their systemic importance. -
Beijing's Bismarckian Ghosts: How Great Powers Compete Economically
Markus Brunnermeier and Rush Doshi and Harold James Beijing’s Bismarckian Ghosts: How Great Powers Compete Economically Great power competition is back. As China and the United States ramp up their strategic rivalry, the search is on for a vision of what their evolving great power competition will look like in a globalized and interconnected world. The looming trade war and ongoing technology competition between Washington and Beijing suggest that economics may now be the central battlefield in the bilat- eral contest. Much of the abundant literature on great power competition and grand strategy focuses on military affairs, and little of it prepares us for what eco- nomic and technological competition among great powers looks like, let alone how it will be waged.1 But great power economic competition is nothing new. Indeed, the rivalry between China and the United States in the twenty-first century holds an uncanny resemblance to the one between Germany and Great Britain in the nine- teenth. Both rivalries take place amidst the emergence of economic globalization and explosive technological innovation. Both feature a rising autocracy with a state-protected economic system challenging an established democracy with a free-market economic system. And both rivalries feature countries enmeshed in profound interdependence wielding tariff threats, standard-setting, technology theft, financial power, and infrastructure investment for advantage. Indeed, for these very reasons, the Anglo-German duel can serve as a useful guide for policy- makers seeking to understand the dynamics of the emerging Sino-American Markus Brunnermeier is the Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics at Princeton University, and can be found on Twitter (@MarkusEconomist). -
Voting Squared: Quadratic Voting in Democratic Politics Eric A
University of Chicago Law School Chicago Unbound Coase-Sandor Working Paper Series in Law and Coase-Sandor Institute for Law and Economics Economics 2014 Voting Squared: Quadratic Voting in Democratic Politics Eric A. Posner E. Glen Weyl Follow this and additional works at: https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/law_and_economics Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Eric Posner & E. Glen Weyl, "Voting Squared: Quadratic Voting in Democratic Politics" (Coase-Sandor Institute for Law & Economics Working Paper No. 657, 2014). This Working Paper is brought to you for free and open access by the Coase-Sandor Institute for Law and Economics at Chicago Unbound. It has been accepted for inclusion in Coase-Sandor Working Paper Series in Law and Economics by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CHICAGO COASE-SANDOR INSTITUTE FOR LAW AND ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER NO. 657 (2D SERIES) Voting Squared: Quadratic Voting in Democratic Politics Eric A. Posner and E. Glen Weyl THE LAW SCHOOL THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO February 2014 This paper can be downloaded without charge at: The University of Chicago, Institute for Law and Economics Working Paper Series Index: http://www.law.uchicago.edu/Lawecon/index.html and at the Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection. Voting Squared: Quadratic Voting in Democratic Politics Eric A. Posner & E. Glen Weyl1 February 14, 2014 Abstract. Conventional democratic institutions aggregate preferences poorly. The norm of one-person-one-vote with majority rule treats people fairly by giving everyone an equal chance to influence outcomes, but fails to give proportional weight to people whose interests in a social outcome are stronger than those of other people—a problem that leads to the familiar phenomenon of tyranny of the majority. -
International Financial Integration, Crises, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area Interbank Crises
No. 17-6 International Financial Integration, Crises, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area Interbank Crises Puriya Abbassi, Falk Bräuning, Falko Fecht, and José-Luis Peydró Abstract We analyze how financial crises affect international financial integration, exploiting euro area proprietary interbank data, crisis and monetary policy shocks, and variation in loan terms to the same borrower on the same day by domestic versus foreign lenders. Crisis shocks reduce the supply of cross- border liquidity, with stronger volume effects than pricing effects, thereby impairing international financial integration. On the extensive margin, there is flight to home—but this is independent of quality. On the intensive margin, however, GIPS-headquartered debtor banks suffer in the Lehman crisis, but effects are stronger in the sovereign-debt crisis, especially for riskier banks. Nonstandard monetary policy improves interbank liquidity, but without fostering strong cross-border financial reintegration. Keywords: financial integration, financial crises, cross-border lending, monetary policy, euro area sovereign crisis, liquidity JEL Classifications: E58, F30, G01, G21, G28 Puriya Abbassi is an economist working in the Directorate General Financial Stability at the Deutsche Bundesbank; his e-mail address is [email protected]. Falk Bräuning is an economist in the research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston; his e-mail address is [email protected]. Falko Fecht is the DZ Bank Endowed Chair of Financial Economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management. His e-mail address is [email protected]. José-Luis Peydró is an ICREA Professor of Economics at the University of Pompeu Fabra; his e-mail address is [email protected]. -
The Great Financial Crisis : Lessons for Financial Stability Policies the Great Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Design of Central Banks Jaime Caruana
RISIS C THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS IAL C AT FINAN AT E HE GR T LESSONS FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY AND MONETARY POLICY NTRAL BANK AN ECB COLLOQUIUM E HELD IN HONOUR OF AN C E LUCAS PAPADEMOS EUROP 20–21 MAY 2010 ILITY B THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS AND STA CE N E RG E ONV C S E R STAT BE M E U M E W E LESSONS FOR N E FINANCIAL STABILITY TH AND MONETARY POLICY NTRAL BANK AN ECB COLLOQUIUM E HELD IN HONOUR OF AN C E LUCAS PAPADEMOS EUROP 20–21 MAY 2010 © European Central Bank, 2012 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postel address Postal 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. ISBN 978-92-899-0635-7 (online) CONTENTS WELCOME ADDRESS Jean-Claude Trichet ..............................................................................................6 SESSION 1 the great financial crisis : lessons FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY POLICIES The great financial crisis: lessons for the design of central banks Jaime Caruana .....................................................................................................1 4 Comment by Paul Tucker ...................................................................................2 2 Macroprudential regulation: optimizing the currency area Markus K. Brunnermeier ....................................................................................29 Comment by Jürgen Stark ..................................................................................3 -
The Macroeconomics of Corporate Debt
The Macroeconomics of Corporate Debt Markus Brunnermeier Princeton University, NBER, CEPR, and CESifo Arvind Krishnamurthy Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/rcfs/article/9/3/656/5892774 by guest on 21 October 2020 Stanford University and NBER The 2020 COVID-19 crisis can spur research on firms’ corporate finance decisions and their macroeconomic implications, similar to the wave of important research on banking and household finance triggered by the 2008 financial crisis. What are the relevant corporate finance mechanisms in this crisis? Modeling dynamics and timing considerations are likely important, as is integrating corporate financing consider- ations into modern quantifiable macroeconomics models. Recent empirical work, including articles in this special issue, on the drag from debt in the COVID-19 crisis provides a first glimpse into the new research agenda. (JEL E22, E44, G32, G33) Received July 23, 2020; editorial decision: July 23, 2020 by Editor Andrew Ellul The U.S. enters the 2020 COVID-19 recession after a decade-long in- crease in corporate leverage. The pandemic has led to sharp declines in earnings in many industries, straining debt service and raising concerns about a wave of bankruptcies. How have high levels of corporate debt affected the investment and hiring decisions of firms? What are the social consequences of widespread bankruptcies in the business sector? What is the macroeconomic impact of these considerations for aggregate demand and aggregate supply? How should monetary and fiscal policies best deal with the credit dimension of the COVID-19 recession? Monetary policy affects the price of credit. How should such policies be designed when they interact with credit frictions? The 2020 COVID-19 recession brings into sharp relief questions regarding the role of corporate debt in mac- roeconomic performance. -
Research Agenda: the Rich Interactions Between Inequality and the Macroeconomy Benjamin Moll, London School of Economics, November 2020
Research Agenda: The Rich Interactions between Inequality and the Macroeconomy Benjamin Moll, London School of Economics, November 2020 I originally wrote this piece for the Society of Economic Dynamics. It is also available online here, including a short teaser video summarizing the main topics covered below. Introduction One of the key developments in macroeconomics research over the last three decades has been the incorporation of explicit heterogeneity into models of the macroeconomy. As a result of taking micro data seriously, these theories study macroeconomic questions in terms of distributions of microeconomic variables like income or wealth rather than just aggregates. This approach is attractive for two reasons. First, empirically, it provides an integrated framework for making use of both micro and macro data. Second, conceptually, it provides a kind of “distributional macroeconomics” perspective, meaning an integrated perspective for analysing the distributional implications of macroeconomic trends, shocks or policies and the two-way interaction between distribution and the macroeconomy. My current research aims to contribute to this broader agenda. The summary below describes some of my research projects in this area. These range from analysing the effects of policies like monetary policy or lockdown measures to tackle COVID-19 (Section 1) to studying potential drivers of rising income and wealth inequality like automation (Section 2) to the development of new methods for thinking about heterogeneity in macroeconomics (Section 3). I will conclude with what I view as some interesting open questions and avenues for future research (Section 4). All of the work I review here reflects collaborations – often over many years – with Yves Achdou, SeHyoun Ahn, Felipe Alves, Paco Buera, Andreas Fagereng, Xavier Gabaix, Jiequn Han, Martin Holm, Greg Kaplan, David Laibson, Jean-Michel Lasry, Pierre-Louis Lions, Peter Maxted, Gisle Natvik, Galo Nuño, Lukasz Rachel, Pascual Restrepo, Gianluca Violante, Tom Winberry, and Christian Wolf. -
Benjamin Moll Vita
BENJAMIN MOLL 192 Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building [email protected] Department of Economics http://www.princeton.edu/~moll Princeton University Office: +1-609-258-0329 Princeton, NJ 08544 Cell: +1-312-730-5701 Academic Appointments Professor of Economics and International Affairs, from July 2018 Associate Professor of Economics and International Affairs (with tenure), February 2017-June 2018 Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs, February 2011-January 2017 Cyril E. Black University Preceptor, 2015-2018 Associate Research Scholar, Center for Economic Policy Studies, July 2010- February 2011 Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Research Affiliate, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), since 2015 Affiliate, Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD), since May 2017 Researcher, Research Department, Statistics Norway, since January 2018 Education PhD University of Chicago, 2010 Dissertation: “Capital Misallocation and Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions” Committee: Robert M. Townsend, Fernando Alvarez, Francisco Buera, Robert E. Lucas, Jr. BSc University College London, UK, 2005 Publications (Including Accepted and Forthcoming Papers) Why Does Misallocation Persist? (with Abhijit Banerjee) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2010 Well-Intended Policies (with Francisco J. Buera and Yongseok Shin) Review of Economic Dynamics, Special Issue on Misallocation, 2013 Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation? American Economic Review, 2014 Knowledge Growth and the Allocation of Time (with Robert E. Lucas, Jr.) Journal of Political Economy, 2014 Partial Differential Equation Models in Macroeconomics (with Yves Achdou, Francisco J. Buera, Jean-Michel Lasry and Pierre-Louis Lions) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 2014 Aggregate Implications of a Credit Crunch (with Francisco J. -
Participant Biographies
PARTICIPANT BIOGRAPHIES John Asker John Asker is a Professor of Economics at UCLA. His research covers topics related to antitrust policy, cartel behavior, vertical restraints, auction design, firm-level productivity and the effects of industry subsidies. To investigate these issues he employs a mix of theoretical and empirical methods. His papers have been published in journals such as the American Economic Review, the RAND Journal of Economics, the Journal of Public Economics and the Journal of Political Economy. He is also Co-editor of American Economic Journal: Microeconomics and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He holds a Ph.D. from Harvard University and a B.Ec(Hons) from the Australian National University. Laurence Baker Laurence Baker is chief of Health Services Research at Stanford University, a professor of health research and policy, and a CHP/PCOR fellow. He is an economist interested in the organization and economic performance of the U.S. healthcare system. His research focuses on the effects of managed care on the healthcare system; the effects of regulation on healthcare markets; the determinants and effects of technological change in medicine; the culture of patient safety in U.S. hospitals; physicians' incomes and career choices; and how the Internet and e-mail influence healthcare delivery and outcomes. He received his BA from Calvin College, and his MA and PhD in economics from Princeton University. Seventh Annual Federal Trade Commission Microeconomics Conference | October 16-17, 2014 Dirk Bergemann Dirk Bergemann, is the Douglass and Marian Campbell Professor of Economics at Yale University. Dirk received his B.A.