LEADING RESEARCH ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions. Led since 2013 by President Adam S. Posen, the Institute anticipates emerging issues and provides rigorous, evidence-based policy recommendations with a team of the world’s leading applied economic researchers. It creates freely available content in a variety of accessible formats to inform and shape public debate, reaching an audience that includes government officials and legislators, business and NGO leaders, international and research organizations, universities, and the media. The Institute was established in 1981 as the Institute for International Economics, with Peter G. Peterson as its founding chairman, and has since risen to become an unequalled, trusted resource on the global economy and convener of leaders from around the world. At its 25th anniversary in 2006, the Institute was renamed the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Institute today pursues a broad and distinctive agenda, as it seeks to address growing threats to living standards, rules-based commerce, and peaceful economic integration.

COMMITMENT TO TRANSPARENCY The Peterson Institute’s annual budget of $13 million is funded by donations and grants from corporations, individuals, private foundations, and public institutions, as well as income on the Institute’s endowment. Over 90% of its income is unrestricted in topic, allowing independent objective research. The Institute discloses annually all sources of funding, and donors do not influence the conclusions of or policy implications drawn from Institute research. All research is held to strict standards of replicability and academic integrity. Read more at https://www.piie.com/about/transparency-policy.

NAMED TOP 10 THINK TANK WORLDWIDE and INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS POLICY CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR 2016–2018 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report

Four years in a row ANNUAL REPORT 2019

BOARD OF DIRECTORS II

MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT III piie.com

KEY AREAS OF IMPACT 1 @PIIE SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS 5 linkedin.com/company/piie RESEARCH 30

COMMUNICATIONS AND MEDIA 44 facebook.com/PIIEonline/ OUTREACH

youtube.com/user/PetersonInstitute MEETINGS PROGRAM 47

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NOW FEATURING: > What we’re reading > Quick recap of news and related research > Media appearances by PIIE scholars BOARD OF DIRECTORS

The Board of Directors’ principal goal is to protect and strengthen PIIE’s excellence as an independent, nonpartisan, and intellectually rigorous policy research organization that contributes to the public’s understanding of and public policies for managing the world’s interdependent economy. The Board of Directors comprises a diverse group of business leaders, former high-level government officials, international civil servants, and distinguished scholars. The Executive Committee (indicated by *) of our Board of Directors oversees PIIE’s budget and management, while regularly evaluating PIIE’s performance in pursuit of our mission. Senior Management is responsible for setting PIIE’s substantive agenda in consultation with the Board of Directors, the research staff, and other stakeholders.

Michael A. Peterson * (Chair of the Board) Lawrence H. Summers * (Vice Chair of the Board) Stephen Freidheim * (Chair of the Executive Committee) Caroline Atkinson* Hutham S. Olayan * Founding Chair Ajay Banga Peter R. Orszag C. Fred Bergsten James W. Owens Mark T. Bertolini Jonathan Pruzan Neeti Bhalla Johnson Ginni M. Rometty Frank Brosens Lynn Forester de Rothschild * Ronnie C. Chan Richard E. Salomon * Susan M. Collins* Mostafa Terrab Richard N. Cooper Mark Tucker Jason Cummins D. James Umpleby III Barry Eichengreen Ronald A. Williams Peter G. Peterson (1926–2018; Stanley Fischer* Robert B. Zoellick * Institute Chair 1981–2018) Peter R. Fisher Min Zhu Founder and Chairman, Peter G. Peterson Foundation; Co-founder, The Blackstone Jacob A. Frenkel Honorary Directors Group; former Secretary of Commerce and Evan G. Greenberg Assistant to the President for International George David Economic Policy Maurice R. Greenberg Alan Greenspan Kelly Grier Carla A. Hills Herbjorn Hansson Frank E. Loy Shigeru Hayakawa George P. Shultz J. Tomilson Hill Jean-Claude Trichet Stephen Howe, Jr. Ernesto Zedillo Jay Jacobs Hugh F. Johnston Michael Klein* Charles D. Lake II Andrew N. Liveris Barbara G. Novick

*indicates Executive Committee member

II MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT

April 15, 2020 already influential proposals for the multi-author PIIE Briefing on G20 and international economic “How the G20 can hasten recovery Dear Stakeholders and Colleagues institutions. Our communications from COVID-19.” We conveyed of the Peterson Institute for and publications team has sustained an ambitious multifaceted but International Economics: a tremendous effort to turn our concise and targeted G20 agenda to As we face an unprecedented research rapidly into brief, clear, policymakers prior to the IMF and global pandemic and economic and widely disseminated products World Bank Spring Meetings. We crisis, I want to share with you across traditional and social media, in forcefully emphasized the practical how proud I am of the Peterson interactive, video, graphic, and text real-world argument for the value of Institute’s contributions to helping formats. international economic cooperation, including on trade, even during the policymakers and the general We have maintained our standards crisis. We know key policymakers public navigate these treacherous of rigor, objectivity, reproducibility, are reading it, and it was cited in the waters, with lives and livelihoods and transparency, under the guidance Financial Times by Martin Wolf, in at stake. Every member of the of Executive Vice President and his must-read column ahead of the Institute’s staff has contributed to Director of Studies, Marcus Noland, Spring Meetings. our providing nonpartisan, fact- and Vice President for Publications based, and data-driven research and Communications, Steven As Pete Peterson and Fred Bergsten as well as economically sound and Weisman, and most importantly, founded us to do, we at the Peterson pragmatic policy recommendations thanks to our entire Peterson team’s Institute are shaping economic in an accessible and timely manner. commitment to mutual review, policies for the better in this global We are doing our part urgently to open collaboration, and intellectual crisis, through objective data, facilitate global economic recovery. honesty. trusted analysis, and practical policy recommendations. The Federal We are deepening our impact Our Vice President for Operations, Reserve and the European Central and widening our reach without Jeff Cordeau, and his small team have Bank, G20 finance ministries, interruption at this challenging time. ensured the successful operation international trade negotiators In late February, our operational of IT and conferencing capabilities, and leaders of affected industries, managers and I began critical efforts through which we maintain our lively legislators on Capitol Hill and in to safeguard our employees and internal discourse, critical to our democracies around the world, and their families while enabling near- intellectual quality and creativity, and the leaders of the key international seamless transition to work from through which we have engaged with organizations are engaging directly home. Our research team shifted many of you directly. the overwhelming majority of our with our senior fellows to hear our work agenda to rapid-turnaround All of the Institute’s recent analyses analyses, consider and sometimes studies of the most significant and policy proposals relevant to the adopt our proposals, and respond to policy issues: immediate financial COVID-19 crisis can be accessed at our influence on the public debate. and monetary crisis measures; this link. As many of you have seen, We are demonstrating that rules- design of fiscal packages to support our fellows and fact-based analyses based globalization and international locked down economies; managing have generated extensive quality cooperation do improve our citizens’ global supply chain disruptions press coverage and a surge in social well-being and that the alternative of and trade conflicts over medical media and website engagement. economic nationalism is costly to our and food supplies; forecasts of the A great example of our collective present and future. global economic outlook and for key effort comes from just last week. In While we respond to this exceptional economies; comparative assessments 10 days, we conceived, published, situation, we continue to plan for the of national policy responses; and and widely distributed a major Institute’s long-term success. Our

III Economics remains a small, nonprofit organization. All our team members are working full out now, making possible our ongoing contributions to crisis resolution, and we have no reserve staff to call on or do without. We urge you to continue to support academic reputation has never been analysis at and advising the PIIE through this challenging period stronger, and our attractiveness as a leadership of the World Bank for all nonprofits while we help place for economists to do the best Group. He will lead data-driven policymakers and business leaders policy-related work and have it get projects on cross-national analysis reduce the cost and duration of heard is unmatched. This is reflected of such topics as public sector the COVID-19 crisis for everyone. in the world’s leading scholars we procurement and women’s Our annual budget of $12.5 million have recently welcomed to our senior economic opportunity in business. is funded by a combination of research staff: income on our capital fund, annual > Sean Hagan of Georgetown, joined donations from private corporations > Penny Goldberg of Yale, who as a nonresident senior fellow and individuals, and grants from a recently served as chief economist after 14 years as general counsel of variety of private foundations and of the World Bank Group, is now a the International Monetary Fund. public institutions from the United nonresident senior fellow. She will His unique skills and insights are States and all over the world, which focus her Institute research on already making a contribution as we are proud to acknowledge. We trade and economic development. seen in his recent work on how depend on this diversified support to She is working with me and public and why to implement a debt give our scholars the independence health experts on strategies for standstill, coauthored with PIIE to focus on research of merit rather global crisis response at this colleagues Anna Gelpern and than spending time on fundraising moment. Adnan Mazarei. or projects contracted for financial > Markus Brunnermeier, director As our newest colleagues illustrate, marketability. That intellectual of Princeton’s Bendheim Center we only have nonresident freedom and time to focus is even for Finance, is now a nonresident scholars who make a genuine time more important today as we respond senior fellow. He co-led the commitment to our work, participate to the crisis in as close to real time as Peterson-Bendheim joint in our intellectual community, and scholars can. conference on “The Future of share in our mission. Our senior We hope that our country and the Money in the Digital Age.” Markus research staff will always remain world soon return to health, both will focus his Institute research on small enough for us to know what physical and economic. We are in this financial and monetary stability each other is doing and select enough together, and I am deeply grateful for and digital money and fintech. for our what we are doing to matter. your ongoing strong support for the > Jean Pisani-Ferry, our long-time Please read our Annual Review Institute’s important work in pursuit colleague as founder of Bruegel, for highlights of our 2019 impact of our critical mission at this moment. has joined as a nonresident in our usual areas of work, prior senior fellow. He is already a key to our world tilting on its axis in contributor to our macroeconomic the pandemic, as well as of the Please stay safe and well, analysis of crisis response and achievements of our individual coauthor of influential policy fellows. proposals in the European Union. I would like to remind our friends > Simeon Djankov is rejoining as and stakeholders worldwide a senior fellow after his public that for all our achievements, the Adam S. Posen service leave driving economic Peterson Institute for International

IV KEY AREAS OF IMPACT

2019 YEAR IN REVIEW

“Is it really possible that taxes this high on one-fifth of US imports, coupled with TRADE WAR phones, and other electronics would mostly hit multinational firms that rely on American- crippling With the trade war still dominating > made components. In the leadup to the barriers to headlines in 2019, Chad P. Bown’s work “phase one deal” with China, Trump ended US exports, measuring US and Chinese tariffs remained up canceling tariffs on many consumer goods. an invaluable resource amid public are good for uncertainty. Bown showed that while China > The most widely viewed social media Americans? has raised tariffs on the United States, it post of 2019 was a PIIE tweet on Olivier Common sense also has lowered them on other countries, Blanchard and Christopher G. Collins’ blog and mounting putting US companies at an even greater post, “Markets Don’t Believe Trump’s Trade empirical disadvantage in the Chinese market. This War Is Zero-Sum.” The blog noted President finding resulted in a flurry of media attention, Trump’s contention that China has “won” evidence tell including an interview on CNN and calls from and the United States has “lost” in their us no.” The Atlantic to write an op-ed. In August, trade relations. But the authors found that Mary E. Lovely, Bown also found that President Trump had when US tariffs were imposed on China, CNN op-ed, “The raised average tariffs on imports from China both Chinese and US stock markets suffered US-China trade war above 26 percent, up from 3 percent before losses. In fact, both markets typically reacted hurts American the trade war. His research was cited by in the same direction to news developments. families,” May 20 the editorial board of the Washington Post, Few, if any, were good news for one and bad NPR’s Marketplace, and more. He continued news for the other. updating the popular “Trump’s Trade War Timeline” to track and organize major events and links to related research. > American families are paying the price for Trump’s trade war against China, argued Mary E. Lovely in a series of four op-eds for CNN and PIIE blog post. She warned that tariffs raise the cost of living and that higher prices on consumer goods would hit American parents just in time for back-to- school shopping. Lovely found that Trump’s December tariffs aimed at toys, laptops, cell

1 KEY AREAS OF IMPACT PIIE ON THE HILL PIIE scholars C. Fred Bergsten, Olivier Blanchard, Monica de Bolle, Chad P. Bown, and Mary E. Lovely delivered congressional testimony on limiting President Trump’s power to unilaterally impose tariffs, why increasing debt in a time of low interest rates could be beneficial, ways to prevent the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, the damage potential “The Amazon US auto tariffs on Europe could do to the US economy, and the importance of working with allies to change Chinese practices on intellectual property and technology transfer. fires are Jeffrey J. Schott and Bown participated in two Congressional Trade Series events hosted not just a by Representative Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) on the WTO controversy over its dispute ‘tragedy’ but settlement mechanism and the US-China trade war. an opportunity for the WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION PUBLIC DEBT governments of Brazil and > The World Trade Organization (WTO) is > Olivier Blanchard’s speeches and essays the United in crisis a little more than two decades after on the costs and benefits of public debt in a it was established. PIIE plumbed the ins low interest rate environment were widely States to and outs of the paralyzing dispute over the cited throughout the economics profession. stop denying WTO Appellate Body. A PIIE Chart adapted His Working Paper, “Public Debt and climate change from Jeffrey J. Schott’s Policy Brief, The Low Interest Rates,” was named #1 on the and cooperate WTO’s Existential Crisis: How to Salvage Washington Post’s “Albies” awards list on strategies Its Ability to Settle Trade Disputes, led to (named after the famed economist Albert O. one of the most shared social media posts Hirschmann) of the best works on the global to preserve the of the year. Schott’s research was cited by political economy. His views have been rainforest.” Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) widely discussed among economists and Monica de Bolle, at a House Ways and Means markup of H. reporters in major media outlets including congressional Res. 746, a Resolution to Support and Reform The Economist, Financial Times, New York testimony, the World Trade Organization (WTO), which Times, and Le Monde. September 10 the committee ended up passing.

INEQUALITY > Economic inequality became a major focus of debate in the year before a US presidential election. PIIE’s October conference on “Combating Inequality: Rethinking Policies to Reduce Inequality in Advanced Economies” drew a stellar who’s who of leading economists from around the United States and the world to the Institute. Guided by Olivier Blanchard of PIIE and Dani Rodrik of the Harvard Kennedy School, the 11 sessions over two days offered theoretical analyses and practical solutions to guide policymakers and the public on health care, income support, jobs, and education. Essays drawn from the discussions will be published PIIE Chart adapted from by MIT Press and PIIE later in 2020. Jeffrey J. Schott’s research

2 KEY AREAS OF IMPACT PIIE HOSTS TOP LEADERS Roberto Azevêdo Lael Brainard Paulo Guedes > PIIE once again served as the favored venue for the world’s top economic policymakers to present their views to a sophisticated and discerning audience. Speakers included:

> Roberto Azevêdo, director general of the Lawrence Kudlow Christine Lagarde David Malpass World Trade Organization > Lael Brainard, US Federal Reserve Board former Trump administration general counsel governor to the US Trade Representative Stephen > Paulo Guedes, Economy Minister of Brazil Vaughn broke records. > Lawrence Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council GLOBALIZATION > Christine Lagarde, outgoing managing > “What Is Globalization?” the interactive director of the International Monetary Fund multimedia story featuring a timeline and (and new president of the European Central infographics published in 2018, remained Bank) the number one Google search result for > David Malpass, president of the World “globalization” in 2019 and continues to Bank Group draw the most traffic to PIIE’s website of any published piece. TRADE TALKS PODCAST > The popular Trade Talks podcast—hosted TECHNOLOGY by Soumaya Keynes of The Economist and > At a time of rising concerns about the Chad P. Bown—gained 21 percent more future of privacy and efficiency in the world listeners a week on average since the begin- of finance, PIIE has become a leading voice ning of 2019 and was recommended by among research organizations on financial reporters from NPR, the Financial Times, technology (fintech), especially digital and Politico’s Morning Trade newsletter. currency. Institute scholars addressed such The show has a new website at tradetalkspod- issues as Facebook’s new global digital cast.com and a redesigned newsletter reach- currency, Libra; data localization; consumer ing influential trade practitioners, educators, protections and privacy; and organized crime. journalists, and more. PIIE held a “swag Among those writing about the tradeoffs in giveaway” promotional campaign in the fall these areas were Claudia Biancotti, Martin that created buzz among fans on Twitter. The Chorzempa, Joseph E. Gagnon, Gonzalo episode featuring a candid conversation with Huertas, and Edwin M. Truman. Chorzempa has become a go-to source for policymakers and the media on China and fintech, briefing Congressional staff and such federal agencies as the Federal Reserve System, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and Federal Trade Commission; a European government minister; and the head of innovation at a US regulator.

2 3 KEY AREAS OF IMPACT Lardy appeared on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS.

CHINA > In a Working Paper and blog post, Patrick Honohan called on central banks to play a > Nicholas Lardy’s book The State Strikes role in combating or mitigating the effects Back: The End of Economic Reform in China? of climate change and inequality. His points has become the definitive source for anyone were cited by the Financial Times editorial wanting to keep up with China’s ill-advised board and in stories in the Wall Street shift back toward government regulation and Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes, and other control of its economy, and the consequent major news outlets. slowdown of its economic growth. It was recommended by the New York Times and > Jean Pisani-Ferry, in a Financial Times op- Financial Times and cited by the Financial ed, a PIIE blog post, and a Project Syndicate Times editorial board, CNN, and dozens of op-ed, argued green technology could help other top media outlets. the European Union combat a recession. > As massive street protests erupted in Hong Kong over China’s mishandling of threats to its independent legal system, Tianlei Huang’s blog, “Why China Still Needs Hong Kong,” gained traction in China and was one of the top 10 most read PIIE pieces published in 2019.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND DECARBONIZATION > The potential disaster of climate change arrived abruptly in Brazil in 2019, with fiery conflagrations in the Amazon rainforest. Monica de Bolle warned in papers, testimony, and commentary that the Amazon is nearing a “tipping point” after which it will not generate enough rain to sustain itself. Her warnings were picked up by the Washington Post, Guardian, and NPR, and she was featured in a PBS documentary.

4 KEY AREAS OF IMPACT SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS

SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF ADAM S. POSEN

LEADING THE INSTITUTE’S RESPONSE TO SECULAR STAGNATION, TRADE CONFLICT, AND ECONOMIC NATIONALISM

Adam Posen, across a variety of platforms, addressed the largest global economic challenges, from slowing trend growth and investment to President counterproductive trade wars, the costs of Brexit, and ways to deescalate Joined in 1997 economic conflicts with China. At the American Economic Association and Expertise key central bank forums, he called for G-7 Economies and more robust and creative fiscal and Outlook monetary policies. Macroeconomic Policy Central Banking China-U.S. Economic > Featured speaker in American Posen participated in AEA’s featured Relations Economic Association Annual Meetings macro policy discussion with Janet Yellen and Lawrence Summers. high-level panels on “Japanification, CEPR Distinguished Secular Stagnation, and Fiscal and Fellow, 2019–2025 > Quoted frequently in the New York Monetary Challenges” (2020) and Member, Bellagio Times, Financial Times, Foreign “The Future of the Global Economy: Group, 2011–present Policy, and Wall Street Journal; regular Integration or Fragmentation?” (2019) Columnist, Nihon commentator on Bloomberg TV Keizai Shimbun and > Gave keynote speech at the People’s Nikkei Asian Review, Bank of China and World Bank NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS 2018–present Treasury Global Summit on Reserves “Low Inflation and Slow Growth Are the Management on the persistence of dollar New Normal,” for Nikkei Asian Review dominance and its effects (op-ed) > Delivered keynote address at the Facing Up to Low Productivity Growth, South African Reserve Bank Biennial coeditor (Book) Conference on the future of inflation targeting US-China Economic Relations: From Conflict to Solutions—Part II, coeditor > Delivered the first Data Analytics for (PIIE Briefing 19-1) Finance and Macro (DAFM) Annual Lecture at King’s Business School in IN PROGRESS PIIE won the Prospect London on the macroeconomic impact How the G20 Can Hasten Recovery Think Tank Award for of trade wars, including Brexit Best Economic and from the COVID-19 Pandemic Financial Think Tank > Addressed the European Central Bank in the United States A Global Approach to Decarbonization and Rest of the World conference on “Monetary Policy in an (non-Europe) for the Incomplete Union” in May on common Japanese Political Economy and Secular fourth year in a row. challenges facing all central banks Stagnation Fiscal-Monetary Policy Coordination Renewed

5 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF MARCUS NOLAND

UNDERSTANDING TRADE SHOCKS

Marcus Noland synthesized economics with sociology and political science to explain why recent economic disruptions have led to dramatic popular unease over trade, immigration, technology, and other factors transforming modern society. He remains an Executive Vice President and authoritative source for the media on Director of Studies North Korea. Joined in 1985

Expertise > Cited in the Report of the Secretary- Korea General of the United Nations, Growth and Political Economy “Situation of human rights in the Middle East Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” Noland appeared on CNN four times, Africa including this story on bribery > Wrote article with Soyoung Han, in North Korea “Women, Leadership, and Asian Eco- nomic Performance,” for the East-West Center, which argues that one potential NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS source of economic revitalization in Protectionism under Trump: The China Asia is allowing more opportunities for Shock, Intolerance, and the “First White women in the labor force President” (Working Paper 19-10, also published in Asian Economic Policy > Serving as an expert for the US Review) Treasury in a joint Treasury-South Korean Ministry of Finance sponsored North Korea: Sanctions, Engagement, multiyear initiative and Strategic Reorientation, Asian on the North Economic Policy Review (Article) Korean economy Automation, Labor Market Disruption, > Spoke at the and Trade Policy (Blog) World Policy Protectionism under Trump: Policy, Conference in Identity, and Anxiety (Blog) Marrakech for session on trade, IN PROGRESS international Women in Corporate Leadership investment, and trust Climate Change and Trade Noland wrote for the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage column and was cited in Vox and the Nikkei Asian Review.

6 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF C. FRED BERGSTEN

INFORMING POLICYMAKERS ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

C. Fred Bergsten illuminated trade, currency, slowing growth, and other challenges to the global economy in Nonresident Congressional testimony, op-ed Senior Fellow and essays, and interviews with Director Emeritus journalists. He also hosted prominent Joined in 1981 guests at PIIE events.

Expertise Exchange Rates US House Financial Services Committee Trade Policy > Addressed the full National hearing, “Promoting Economic Growth: International Economic Council at the invitation of Exploring the Impact of Recent Trade Monetary System Chief Presidential Economic Adviser Policies on the US Economy” China/Asia Larry Kudlow in May; hosted the “Conversation with Larry Kudlow” Continued serving > Received wide media coverage in event at PIIE in June; led Chinese the Wall Street Journal, New York on President’s participants of PIIE’s November CF40 Advisory Times, and Financial Times on Trump’s Committee on event in a meeting with Kudlow description of China as “currency Trade Policy and > Preparing for completion of book, manipulator” in August 2019 Negotiations The United States vs. China for Global > Spoke at events for the Export- Economic Leadership Import Bank, Metropolitan Club, > Testified before the US House Greater Phoenix Economic Council, Financial Services Committee that Committee for a Responsible Federal Congress should more sharply define Budget, and the Council on Foreign “national security” as a justification for Relations tariff increases and insist that President > Wrote op-ed for The Hill, “Congress Trump seek lawmakers’ approval of any must use the USMCA to stop Trump’s proposed new tariffs on those grounds trade abuses”

NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS “The attack on China’s policies is correct, but Trump’s Attack on China’s Currency the flaw has been the simultaneous launch Policy (Blog) of trade wars on our allies with spurious Trump’s War on US Exports (Blog) justifications [...] It undermined the legitimacy and moral high ground of their case for IN PROGRESS achieving success against China.” The United States, China, and the Global Bergsten in “In the Battles Over Trump’s Trade Wars, Hawkish Economic Transformation Adviser Navarro Endures,” Wall Street Journal, December 21

7 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF OLIVIER BLANCHARD

RETHINKING FISCAL POLICIES AND COMBATING INEQUALITY

Olivier Blanchard, in his pathbreaking presidential address at the American Economic Association (AEA), called C. Fred Bergsten for a fundamental reassessment of Senior Fellow fiscal policy at a time of low interest Joined in 2015 rates. He also organized a seminal conference at PIIE on policies to Expertise combat economic inequality. Financial Crises Labor Macroeconomics Transition > Blanchard’s AEA speech and related US House Budget Committee hearing on “Reexamining the Economic Economies publications continue to gain traction Costs of Debt” Unemployment with policymakers, economists, and the media. He delivered testimony to the US House Budget Committee. NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS Working Paper 19-4 was ranked first in Fiscal Policy Options for Japan (Policy the ten best works on the global political Brief 19-7) economy by the Washington Post’s Public Debt and Low Interest Rates Albies awards. (Working Paper 19-4) > Co-organized We Have the Tools to Reverse the Rise major conference, in Inequality (Paper) “Combating Why Critics of a More Relaxed Attitude Inequality: on Public Debt Are Wrong (Blog) Rethinking Policies to IN PROGRESS Reduce Inequality Digital Currencies and Economic in Advanced Panel from the Fluctuations Combating Economies” with Dani Rodrik, featuring Inequality guests like Nobel laureates Angus Assessing Fiscal Space conference. Deaton and Peter Diamond among two Pictured above: Targeting Wage Inflation dozen of the world’s leading experts Catherine Rampell Nonstandard Fiscal Policies (Washington > Published 8th edition of his Post), Greg Revisiting Automatic Stabilizers Mankiw, Lawrence Macroeconomics textbook for Summers, and undergraduate students Fiscal Rules in the European Union Emmanuel Saez > Gave speech in honor of Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank conference in Sintra

8 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF CHAD P. BOWN

WIDELY CITED SOURCE FOR TRADE INSIGHTS AND DATA

Chad P. Bown produced pathbreaking research and reams of data on President Trump’s ever-changing trade policies, especially the US Reginald Jones confrontation with China and the Senior Fellow WTO. Scholars, policymakers, Joined in 2016 and journalists relied on his insights to make sense of trade Expertise developments. Trade Policy

> Reached over 100 episodes cohosting Bown’s blog post, “Trump Has Gotten the Trade Talks podcast with Soumaya China to Lower Its Tariffs. Just Toward Everyone Else,” created a flurry of Keynes (The Economist). The show media attention. has now been recommended by NPR, Politico, and the Financial Times. on the Global Trading System. And Why > Participated in a bipartisan Decoupling From China Will Change Congressional Trade Series briefing Everything” and wrote two op-eds for hosted by Congresswoman Stephanie The Atlantic, “The Trade War Will Murphy on the US-China trade war Catch Up to Trump” and “China is > Testified before the Cutting Tariffs – For Everyone Else.” European Parliament Committee on NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS International Trade on WTO’ing a Resolution to the China “Can We Save the WTO Subsidy Problem (Working Paper 19-17) Appellate Body?” The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict After > Appeared eight times 40 Years of Special Protection in China on NPR’s The Indicator Economic Journal (Paper) (Working podcast and was frequently Paper 19-7) cited in other major media Bown continued Did Trump’s Trade War Impact the 2018 updating “Trump’s outlets Trade War Timeline” Election? (Working Paper 19-21) to track the latest > Gave keynote address with data, which was a Keynes at the United States IN PROGRESS top hit on PIIE’s Court of International website in 2019. Explaining Trade and Globalization Trade 20th Judicial Conference Tracking US Trade Wars > Co-wrote an op-ed for Foreign Affairs World Trade Organization Rules and with Douglas A. Irwin, “Trump’s Assault China

9 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF MARTIN CHORZEMPA

GETTING REAL OVER CHINESE ECONOMIC INNOVATION

Martin Chorzempa explored the challenges posed by Chinese innovations in financial technology Research Fellow and US efforts to combat perceived Joined in 2017 threats these changes present to privacy and national security. Expertise Financial Innovation and > Provided briefings to congressional Data Protection and Digital Finance Regulation in event, November China staff, officials across the federal government, a European government minister, and head of innovation at a US > Completed a manuscript of his regulator forthcoming book, Cashless China: How the World’s Most Populous Country > Published an op-ed for Nikkei Asian Review, “New US tech import controls Vaulted Ahead of the West in Financial are unacceptably broad” Technology > Spoke at the New York Federal NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS Reserve’s Annual Fintech Conference New CFIUS Regulations: More > Quoted in major media outlets, Powerful, Transparent, and Complex including the New York Times, NPR, (Blog) and Wall Street Who Likes Facebook’s Libra Currency? Journal Not the Chinese (Blog)

IN PROGRESS Competition Policy, Data Privacy, and Taxation in the Digital Era Decoupling with China, Technological Innovation, and National Security “American companies can move some things Financial Regulation and Technology in out of China if that’s problematic for their China supply chain, but they can also move the tech development out of the U.S. if that becomes problematic.” Chorzempa in “U.S. Tech Companies Sidestep a Trump Ban, to Keep Selling to Huawei,” New York Times, June 25

10 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF JÉRÉMIE COHEN-SETTON

FACING FISCAL AND MONETARY CHOICES IN EUROPE

Jérémie Cohen-Setton applied deep analysis to the record of fiscal expansions in advanced countries and Research Fellow to the challenges facing Europe in Joined in 2016 setting balanced fiscal and monetary policies for the future. Expertise Macroeconomic Policy > Wrote background briefing for the Europe European Parliament for the first United States Monetary Union hearing of European Central Bank Great Depression President Christine Lagarde > Wrote op-ed for the London Blog post on auto tariffs was cited by the chief of staff for US Representative Jackie School of Economics and Political Waloski, FT Trade Secrets newsletter, Science, “The proposed reform of the Inside Trade, Global Times, and The Hill. European Stability Mechanism must be postponed” NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS > The New York Times cited Cohen- Aggregate Effects of Budget Stimulus: Setton’s previously published Policy Evidence from the Large Fiscal Brief 18-16, Vehicular Assault: Proposed Expansions Database (Working Paper Auto Tariffs Will Hit American Car 19-12) Buyers’ Wallets, showing how President Trump’s proposed auto tariffs could Uncertainty over Auto Tariffs May Not raise the price of a new car by $1,400 to End Soon (Blog) $7,000. IN PROGRESS Economic Nationalism Labor Force Composition and Wage Growth “This is a very well-done review of the Output Effects of Taxes and evidence on the effects of fiscal expansion.” Expenditures Paul Krugman in a tweet to his 4.5 million followers linking to Cohen-Setton’s Working Paper on the aggregate effects of budget stimulus, July 17

11 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF MONICA DE BOLLE

CONFRONTING ECONOMIC NATIONALISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Monica de Bolle is co-chair of PIIE’s economic nationalism project, and also stirred a furor in Brazil and Senior Fellow earned worldwide attention with her Joined in 2015 trenchant analysis of backward and dangerous Brazilian policies on the Expertise destruction of the Amazon rain forest. Brazil Financial Crises Financial Markets > Testified before the US House US House Foreign Affairs Committee Latin America Foreign Affairs Committee, hearing, “Preserving the Amazon: A Shared Moral Imperative” Senior member, Subcommittee on the Western advisory board Hemisphere, Civilian Security, and of Brazil’s fiscal Trade offering policy recommendations > First ever recipient of the Dean’s council to the US Congress on how stakeholders Award for Exemplary Service at the can help preserve and protect the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced Amazon rainforest International Studies and winner of the > Regular contributor to Brazil’s major Excellence in Teaching Award news organizations, O Estado de São Paulo, and Revista Epoca, with over 70 NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS op-eds published in 2019 Measuring the Rise of Economic Nationalism (Working Paper 19-15) > Guest on NPR’s 1A episode, “No Plan B: Putting A Price Tag On Carbon,” and The Amazon Is a Carbon Bomb: on A Correction How Can Brazil and the World Work Podcast, aimed at Together to Avoid Setting It Off? (Policy students Brief 19-15) > Cited in The PROJECTS IN PROGRESS Guardian, Reuters, Washington Post, Economic Nationalism Wall Street Journal, Trends in Latin American Economies and Associated Press for work on the Amazon, Brazil, and Latin America

PIIE Chart adapted from Policy Brief 19-15

12 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF JOSEPH E. GAGNON

SOUNDING THE ALARM ON LIMITS TO MONETARY POLICY

Central banks are approaching the limits of what they can do to fight a recession, given existing inflation targets and boundaries between monetary and fiscal policies. Joseph E. Senior Fellow Gagnon’s research points to the Joined in 2009 benefits of raising the targeted rate of inflation and the need to mobilize Expertise fiscal policy—perhaps under partial Monetary and central bank control—to combat high Fiscal Policies unemployment. Exchange Rates Trade Balances Unconventional Monetary Policies > Wrote paper, “What Have We Learned about Central Bank Balance Sheets and Interview on C-SPAN in July on US-China Monetary Policy?,” for the Cato Journal, trade relations defending the role of central banks in fighting the Great Recession NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS > Presented on monetary policy at The Fed Is on Hold for a While (one the American Economic Association in series of blog posts on Federal Open annual meeting in Atlanta Market Committee meetings) > Spoke on US dollar policy at the White Are Central Banks Out of Ammunition House and with Representative Denny to Fight a Recession? Not Quite. (Policy Heck and his staff in June Brief 19-18) > Discussed a report Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve on the IMF’s advice to (Working Paper 19-6) central banks at a meeting with the Independent IN PROGRESS Evaluation Office of the Current Accounts and Exchange Rate IMF Management > Discussed monetary Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve policy outlook at PIIE’s around the World Global Economic Prospects spring event What Drives Current Account Imbalances? Policy Brief 19-18 argues the Fed The ECB’s Strategic Review of Monetary has more ammunition to combat the next recession than the central Policy banks of the eurozone and Japan, but the outlook for all in the case of a severe recession is not great.

13 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF JACOB FUNK KIRKEGAARD

UNDERSCORING THE BENEFITS OF LATINO IMMIGRATION

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, in a careful analysis of demographics and economics, provided startling Senior Fellow evidence that immigrants add to US Joined in 2002 economic growth. He also continued his insightful play-by-play of the Expertise Brexit drama. Europe Labor and Migration Interview with Bloomberg’s David Westin Outsourcing > Spoke at the Latin Donor on the possibility of a UK snap election Inequality Collaborative annual meeting in Los Social Security Angeles and the DiversityInc Top 50 and Pensions Announcement event in New York, both NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS with Steve Forbes, on the benefits of Chinese Investments in the US and EU Latino immigration to the US economy Are Declining—for Similar Reasons (Policy Brief 19-12) > Met with the newly elected European Parliament’s economic committee The Economic Benefits of Latino and European Commission Executive Immigration: How the Migrant Vice President Margrethe Vestager to Hispanic Population’s Demographic discuss transatlantic issues Characteristics Contribute to US Growth (Working Paper 19-3) > Wrote a paper for the European IN PROGRESS Parliament Committee Immigration and Demographics on Economic Demographics, Divergence, and and Monetary Declining Dynamism Affairs, “Yes, We The ECB’s Strategic Review of Monetary Are Probably All Policy Japanese Now” A “Green New Deal” in Europe “The Peterson report fleshes out something India and the United States in the World that [...] most people in the United States Economy are still really 10, 20, 30 years behind.” Steve Forbes (right) on Kirkegaard’s Working Paper about the economic benefits of Latino immigration at the DiversityInc event, May 7

14 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF NICHOLAS R. LARDY

DOCUMENTING CHINA’S TURN AWAY FROM ECONOMIC REFORM

Following publication of his seminal book The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China?, Anthony M. Nicholas Lardy documented slowing Solomon Senior growth in China resulting from its Fellow retrograde economic policies. Joined in 2003

Expertise China > Presented The States Strikes Back to Asia 26 organizations around the world in Lardy’s book was regularly featured Economics of the United States, Japan, Singapore, by Fareed Zakaria on CNN and in the Transition and Australia, including at the Wall Washington Post Street Journal CEO Council, Council on Foreign Relations, Federal Reserve > Lead speaker for the 2019 Institute Bank of San Francisco, and US of International Finance China Chamber of Commerce Roundtable event in Washington > Wrote op-ed for the Financial Times, > Cited by name in an op-ed by the “Xi Jinping’s turn away from the market editorial board of the Financial Times, puts China’s growth at risk” “A trade deal might help China’s needed > Spoke at the joint People’s Bank reforms” of China and IMF conference on Opening Up and Competitive Neutrality NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS in Beijing, the joint State Council Achieving Competitive Neutrality in Development Research Center and China (Paper presented at CF40-PIIE World Bank Group conference on conference in Beijing) Innovative China: New Drivers of Growth in Beijing China’s Growth Is Slowing, but not Because of the Trade War (Blog) The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China? (Book)

IN PROGRESS “Lardy is the doyen of western observers of Financing the Private Sector in China the Chinese economy.” Recent Trade and Investment Martin Wolf, “Summer books of 2019: Economics,” Financial Liberalization in China Times, June 21. Lardy’s book was also recommended by the New York Times.

15 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF MARY E. LOVELY

OUTLINING THE COST OF TRADE PROTECTION

Mary E. Lovely sifted the data to make clear that raising tariffs or imposing burdensome regulations, as called for Senior Fellow under the Trump administration’s Joined in 2017 trade policies, lead to higher costs for US consumers and businesses. Expertise China Globalization > Delivered Congressional testimony Foreign Direct before the US-China Economic and Investment PBS NewsHour interview on why the US- Multinational Security Review Commission hearing China trade war is far from over Corporations on Risks, Rewards, and Results: US Companies in China and Chinese Companies in the United States NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS The USMCA: New, Modestly Improved, Widely quoted on US-China trade > Still Costly (Blog) war and United States-Mexico- Canada Agreement (USMCA) debates, They Saved the Worst for Last: Why including frequently on NPR and in Trump’s Impending December Tariffs the Financial Times, New York Times, Should be Rolled Back (Blog) and Washington Post. Featured on The Cost of Another China No-Deal the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Deal (Blog) CBS Evening News sought her advice on how to illustrate how exports are IN PROGRESS distributed and used from China to the United States. Role of Multinational Firms in the “China Shock” > Gave series of lectures on US trade policy at Sciences Po and the Toulouse China’s Use of Foreign Direct Business School, sponsored by the Investment as an Industrial Policy Wrote four op-eds US Embassy in Paris and the German Evolution of China’s Trade Patterns Marshall Fund for CNN about the India and the United States in the World US-China trade war, including “The > Was keynote speaker for the Korean Economy US-China trade war Outward Trade and Investment hurts American Agency in Seoul, Queen’s Institute on families” Trade Policy in Kingston, ON, and a US Soybean Export Council event in Chicago

16 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF JEFFREY J. SCHOTT

DEMYSTIFYING TRADE AGREEMENTS AND DISAGREEMENTS

Jeffrey J. Schott drew on years of experience and expertise to demystify the underlying issues on US trade Senior Fellow agreements with Mexico, Canada, Joined in 1983 and China and the World Trade Organization’s much-criticized Expertise dispute resolution procedures. Trade WTO Free Trade > Participated in a Congressional Trade Agreements Congressional Trade Series event Sanctions Series briefing on the WTO Appellate Body crisis organized by Representative in December Co-chair, US Stephanie Murphy of the House Ways NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS Department of and Means Trade Subcommittee. State Sanctions The USMCA: New, Modestly Improved, Subcommittee > Spoke on trade issues for the HSBC but Still Costly (Blog) (until Oct. 2019); annual Asia Credit Conference in Hong Kong, the International Chamber of Reinventing the Wheel: Phase One of the Full member, US US-Japan Trade Pact (Blog) Department of Commerce and the Brazilian National State Advisory Confederation of Industry in São The WTO’s Existential Crisis: How Committee Paulo, the China Development Forum to Salvage Its Ability to Settle Trade Co-chair, USTR Special Session in Beijing, and the Disputes (Policy Brief 19-19) Trade and World Knowledge Forum in Seoul. Environment Assessing China’s Potential for CPTPP Policy Advisory > Wrote an op-ed for Bloomberg Membership (Paper presented at CF40- Committee (until Opinion, “Just Say No to the New PIIE conference in Beijing) Nov. 2019) NAFTA,” which argued the new accord would restrict trade and IN PROGRESS investment, impose costs on US Trade Negotiations Involving China, consumers, and undercut Japan, the European Union, and the US economic growth United Kingdom > Gave keynote speech Reforming the World Trade on WTO reform at the Organization Bund Summit in Shanghai, organized by China India and the United States in the World Finance 40 Forum (CF40) Economy Schott was widely and the Shanghai municipal cited on trade and government risks of escalating Iran oil sanctions.

17 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF NICOLAS VÉRON

TOWARD A HEALTHIER EUROPEAN BANKING SYSTEM

Nicolas Véron’s careful analysis of the problems of Europe’s banking system, including its susceptibility to Senior Fellow money laundering, helped European Joined in 2009 policymakers make steps toward reform in 2019. Expertise Europe Banking > Policy proposed in 2017 for new capital Bloomberg interview on French unions Capital Markets regulations to force euro area banks striking over pension reform Financial Regulation to diversify their euro area sovereign exposures was widely cited in recent NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS European reform debates, with the Banking Disrupted? Financial advocating German Finance Ministry Intermediation in an Era of specifically for Véron’s suggested plan in Transformational Technology, coauthor an influential November paper (Report) In a December meeting with the > An Effective Regime for Non-

European Commission Economic and viable Banks: US Experience and advocated Financial Affairs Council Considerations for EU Reform (Paper for creating an anti–money laundering for the Economic and Monetary Affairs agency as proposed in A Better Committee, European Parliament) European Architecture to Fight Money Laundering (Policy Brief 18-25) EU Trade Policy amid the China- US Clash: Caught in the Cross-Fire? Wrote “Memo to the Commissioner > (Working Paper 19-13) for Financial Services” for Bruegel on challenges for the incoming European IN PROGRESS Commission on financial services policy Cited four times Boom of Corporate Debt in Emerging in The Economist > Gave presentations to the US State Markets on Italian Department, European Banking banks, Brussels Authority, UK Treasury, and the Anti–Money Laundering (AML) conventions, the Oversight EU single market, Council of the European Union and the European > Participated in the Annual Financial International Financial Infrastructures banking union Crisis Forum at Yale University, a and Financial Sanctions group initiated and attended by former Financial Sector Consequences of Brexit Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner Toward a European Banking Union

18 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF JEROMIN ZETTELMEYER

FACING UP TO RISING NATIONALISM

Jeromin Zettelmeyer launched an important PIIE project to understand the causes and consequences of rising economic nationalism, while also exploring economic issues facing Dennis Weatherstone Europe, before he went on leave to Senior Fellow serve at the World Bank in 2019. Joined in 2016 On leave for public service in 2019 Presented research on creating a > Wrote and appeared in video for Expertise euro area safe asset at the European educational feature, The Greek Debt Crisis , , Economic Growth Commission European Central Bank and a high-level working group of the Europe NOTABLE PUBLICATIONS Financial Crises European Council Measuring the Rise of Economic Sovereign Debt > Forthcoming paper on the European Restructuring Nationalism (Working Paper 19-15) Transition fiscal framework, coauthored with Economies Olivier Blanchard, was presented Creating a Euro Area Safe Asset without during keynote speeches at the Mutualizing Risk (Much) (Working Chair, Research European Central Bank and European Paper 19-14) and Policy Network Commission’s annual research How to Restructure Sovereign Debt: on European conferences by Blanchard Economic Lessons from Four Decades (Working Architecture, > The French Treasury shared a link Paper 19-8) Centre for to Zettelmeyer and coauthors’ Working The Return of Economic Nationalism in Economic Policy Paper on restructuring sovereign debt Germany (Policy Brief 19-4) Research (CEPR) on Twitter and LinkedIn Facing Up to Low Productivity Growth, > German finance coeditor (Book) minister Peter Altmaier responded IN PROGRESS on Twitter to Policy Brief on economic Economic Nationalism nationalism in Designing Euro Area Safe Assets Germany Fiscal Rules in the European Union

Provided commentary for blog post on Elizabeth Warren’s “A Plan For Economic Patriotism”

19 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF EGOR EUIJIN JUNG GORNOSTAY

> Started new role as Research > Coauthored The WTO’s Fellow, where he is using new Existential Crisis: How to computational techniques and Salvage Its Ability to Settle sources of data for analyzing Trade Disputes (Policy Brief monetary and fiscal policies 19-19) and worked with Chad P. Bown on top blog post “Trump > Coauthored Aggregate Effects of Budget Stimulus: Has Gotten China to Lower Its Research Evidence from the Large Fiscal Research Fellow Tariffs. Just Toward Everyone Fellow and Joined in 2015 Else.” Quality Control Expansions Database (Working Coordinator Paper 19-12) > Spoke to the Korean Expertise Joined in 2015 Embassy and the Japanese Trade Policy IN PROGRESS Automobile Manufacturers Expertise Free Trade Labor Force Composition and Agreements Association on trade issues Monetary and Wage Growth US-India Trade Fiscal Policies IN PROGRESS Econometrics Output Effects of Taxes and Computational Expenditures India and the United States in Economics the World Economy

EVA ZHANG

> Adopted new role as Research Statistician to verify data of PIIE research > Worked with Chad P. Bown on multiple blog posts on the trade war, including “Trump Has Gotten China to Lower Its Research Statistician Tariffs. Just Toward Everyone Chad P. Bown, Jung, and Zhang found that as Joined in 2018 Else.” China was retaliating against US tariffs, it was also lowering its tariffs for other countries, > Analyzed data for US-China putting the United States at an even greater Expertise Trade Conflict after 40 Years disadvantage reaching China’s market. Trade Policy of Special Protection (Working China Paper 19-7), among other Econometrics papers

20 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS NONRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF CLAUDIA BIANCOTTI

> Drew attention to the security risks posed by Chinese app TikTok with blog post “The Growing Popularity of Chinese Social Media Outside China Poses New Risks in the West” Visiting Fellow > Coauthored PIIE Policy 2018–2019 Brief 19-3, Opening Internet Biancotti was one of the first researchers to draw Monopolies to Competition attention to the security risks of the Chinese Expertise with Data Sharing Mandates app, TikTok, in a January blog post. The piece Technology received wide coverage, especially in Asia. At the Security > Presented at PIIE’s Data end of 2019, US Army and Navy personnel were Cyber Protection and Digital Finance forbidden to use the app on government phones, Currencies event citing the same risks that Biancotti highlighted.

LEE G. JOSÉ DE BRANSTETTER GREGORIO

> Coauthored The Rise of > Wrote Inflation Targets in Global Innovation by US Latin America (PIIE Working Multinationals Poses Risks and Paper 19-19) Opportunities (Policy Brief 19- > Gave keynote speech at the 9) and wrote op-ed on Japanese joint Bank of Thailand–IMF innovation for Nikkei High-Level Conference > Presented to the Nonresident Nonresident > Participated in the Kansas Senior Fellow Congressional Robotics Senior Fellow City Fed Jackson Hole Joined in 2013 Caucus, US House of Joined in 2013 Economic Policy Symposium Representatives Expertise Expertise IN PROGRESS IN PROGRESS Foreign Direct Latin America Accumulation of Reserves in Investment Challenge of Chinese Monetary Policy Emerging Markets Intellectual Intellectual Property and International Property Rights Industrial Policies Finance Boom of Corporate Debt in Trade and Emerging Markets Innovation Globalization of R&D: Evidence from US Multinationals

21 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS NONRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF KAREN DYNAN JASON FURMAN

> Presented the spring PIIE > Chaired a UK expert panel Global Economic Prospects on digital competition, forecast, which proved accurate with recommendations implemented in the United > “National Fiscal Policies to Reduce Cyclical Volatility in Kingdom, France, Germany, U.S. States” paper and AEA talk and Australia, and under consideration by the were cited by Forbes European Nonresident Nonresident Commission and the United Senior Fellow > Wrote about entitlement Senior Fellow States Joined in 2017 reform for the ANNALS of Joined in 2017 Cowrote influential article on the American Academy of > rethinking budget deficits for Expertise Political and Social Science Expertise Economic Macroeconomic Foreign Affairs Outlook and IN PROGRESS Policy Growth Labor IN PROGRESS Redesigning Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Fiscal Policy Measurement of Inequality and Policy Automatic Stabilizers to Deal Tax Policy Progressivity with the Next Recession United States Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects High-Pressure Economy ANNA GELPERN

> Organized Law and Macroeconomics conference at Georgetown Law; coedited papers for journal, Law & Contemporary Problems > Cowrote report “An Effective Regime for Nonviable Nonresident Senior Fellow Banks: US Experience and Considerations for EU Reform” Furman delivered testimony to the US House Joined in 2013 Judiciary Committee hearing in October, for the European Parliament “Online Platforms and Market Power, Part 3: Expertise The Role of Data and Privacy in Competition” Sovereign Debt IN PROGRESS Restructuring Issues of Sovereign Debt Financial Default and Transparency Regulation International Law and Macroeconomics Law Ensuring Financial Stability

22 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS NONRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF ANABEL CULLEN S. GONZÁLEZ HENDRIX

> Covered developing countries > Cowrote “Climate as a Risk in the WTO in blog posts and Factor for Armed Conflict” for events, including at the African top science journal, Nature, Development Bank and related article for the Washington Post’s Monkey > Presented a Learning Session Cage column with Bill Gates > Heading project that received Nonresident Nonresident Senior Fellow IN PROGRESS Senior Fellow $500,000 grant from the Joined in 2018 Reform of the World Trade Joined in 2012 Carnegie Corporation of New Organization and the York to help academics engage Expertise Developing Countries Expertise with the policy world Trade Policy Africa Evolution of the African IN PROGRESS Emerging Continental Free Trade Area Resources and Markets Development Geopolitics of the Energy Latin America’s Perspectives on Political Transition Global Trade Issues and Trade Economy Agreements Chinese Engagement in Africa

PATRICK HONOHAN

> Published book, Currency, Credit and Crisis: Central Banking in Ireland and Europe > Published study for IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office on unconventional monetary policies Nonresident González has worked extensively on solutions Senior Fellow > PIIE Working Paper 19-18, for WTO reform and presented on the topic at Joined in 2016 Should Monetary Policy Take an April PIIE event featuring director-general of Inequality and Climate Change the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo. Expertise into Account? was cited by the Bank Financial Times and Forbes Restructuring Central Banking Debt IN PROGRESS Monetary Policy Uses and Misuses of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

23 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS NONRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF GARY CLYDE HUFBAUER

> Wrote op-ed for the East Asia Forum, “The chill ahead in the Second Cold War,” criticizing Trump’s trade and other actions against China > Received numerous press citations in top media outlets Nonresident Senior Fellow Joined in 1981 IN PROGRESS Hufbauer’s research on steel tariffs grabbed the US Trade Negotiations headline in this Washington Post story from May by Heather Long Expertise Involving China, Japan, the Tax Policy European Union, and the Trade Policy United Kingdom Foreign Direct Investment Reforming the World Trade Organization DOUGLAS A. IRWIN

> Clashing Over Commerce (2017) won the Manhattan Institute’s Hayek book prize and was published in paperback > Cowrote op-ed for Foreign Affairs with Chad P. Bown Nonresident > In Working Paper 19-9, Senior Fellow Does Trade Reform Promote Joined in 2018 Economic Growth?, Irwin found that significantly Expertise reducing import barriers helps Globalization economic growth Trade Policy World Trade The Foreign Affairs op-ed by Bown and Irwin Organization IN PROGRESS was named one of the magazine’s ten best Developing Country Trade print articles of 2019. The magazine’s editor, Gideon Rose, discussed the piece during an Liberalization interview on Bloomberg Surveillance. WTO and the Multilateral Trading System

24 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS NONRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF OLIVIER J. BRADFORD JEANNE JENSEN

> Coauthored “Managing > Coauthored The Rise of Credit Booms and Busts: A Global Innovation by US Pigouvian Taxation Approach,” Multinationals Poses Risks and for the Journal of Monetary Opportunities (Policy Brief 19- Economics 9) and “The IT Revolution and the Globalization of R&D” for > Presented on policy interactions and spillovers in academic journal, Innovation Nonresident Nonresident Policy and the Economy Senior Fellow the global economy at the IMF- Senior Fellow Joined in 2008 World Bank Annual Meetings Joined in 2003 > Wrote for VoxEU on the rise in global trade in services Expertise IN PROGRESS Expertise Capital Flows Capital Flow Management Services Trade IN PROGRESS Debt Money and Government Debt Multinational Globalization of R&D: Evidence Exchange Rate Companies from US Multinationals Regimes Chinese Exchange Rate Regime Outsourcing Productivity Role of Headquarters in the Global Economy ROBERT Z. LAWRENCE

> Wrote China, Like the US, Faces Challenges in Achieving Inclusive Growth Through Manufacturing (Policy Brief 19-11) > Trained senior officials of the European Council in Brussels Nonresident Senior Fellow on trade policy Joined in 2001 IN PROGRESS Expertise Labor and National Income PIIE Chart adapted from Branstetter and Globalization Reform of Safeguard Rules Trade Policy Jensen’s Policy Brief 19-9, The Rise of Global Labor Innovation by US Multinationals Poses Risks Manufacturing and Inclusive and Opportunities Growth Revisiting Automatic Stabilizers

25 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS NONRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF ADNAN MAURICE MAZAREI OBSTFELD

> Joined PIIE from the IMF, > Joined PIIE from the where he was deputy director University of California, Berkeley. He was previously > Addressed Iran’s economic and financial crisis in Policy at the IMF and member of the Brief 19-8 and blog post, with US President’s Council of subsequent media citations Economic Advisers in the New Yorker and > Gave opening keynote speech Nonresident Nonresident Senior Fellow Washington Post Senior Fellow at the Italian Economic Association annual conference Joined in 2019 > Wrote on the Middle East’s Joined in 2019 lagging efforts to diversify from > Published book, Meeting Expertise oil in Policy Brief 19-6 Expertise Globalization’s Challenges Middle East Exchange Rates Central Asia IN PROGRESS Financial Crises IN PROGRESS Political Capital Markets Economy Macroeconomic Stability and Monetary Policy Globalization in Historical Growth in the MENA Region Perspective Iran’s Economic Troubles International Capital Market Integration Global Economic Prospects

PETER A. PETRI

> Wrote China Should Join the New Trans-Pacific Partnership (Policy Brief 19-1) and is working on forthcoming book > Wrote op-ed, “Why the CPTPP Could Be the Answer to the US-China Trade War” for Visiting Fellow the South China Morning Post Joined in 2001 PIIE Chart adapted from Mazarei’s Policy > Quoted by the Wall Street Brief 19-6, which found that the efforts of oil- Expertise Journal and NBC News rich countries of the Middle East and North Trade Policy Africa to diversify their exports have had disappointing results, raising concerns about Trans-Pacific IN PROGRESS the region’s stability and potential risk to the Partnership US economic relations with the Asia global economy Asia-Pacific region

26 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS NONRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF JEAN PISANI- SIMON POTTER FERRY

> Joined PIIE after serving > Joined PIIE after positions as director of programme as executive vice president and and ideas for Emmanuel head of the Markets Group at Macron’s presidential bid and the Federal Reserve Bank of as commissioner-general of New York and senior policy the ideas lab for the French advisor on the Financial government. He is also a senior Stability Oversight Council Nonresident fellow at Bruegel. Nonresident at the US Department of Senior Fellow Senior Fellow Treasury Joined in 2019 > Met with the president of Joined in 2019 the European Council, vice > Spoke at PIIE’s The Future of Expertise president of the European Expertise Money in the Digital Age event Europe Commission, and other officials Monetary Policy Monetary Policy > Wrote columns for Project Central Banking IN PROGRESS Fiscal Policy Syndicate and Le Monde Financial Central Bank Implementation Euro Markets Regimes IN PROGRESS A Global Approach to Decarbonization SHERMAN ROBINSON

> Cowrote US-China Trade War: Both Countries Lose, World Markets Adjust, Others Gain (Policy Brief 19-17), Brexit: Ev- eryone Loses, but Britain Loses the Most (Working Paper 19-5) > Met with Japan’s Ministry of Nonresident Senior Fellow Economy, Trade and Industry Joined in 2016 IN PROGRESS Pisani-Ferry wrote a series of blog posts Expertise Reform of the World Trade on how to confront the next European Trade Policy Organization and the Developing recession, including a piece on how a credible decarbonization agenda could help strengthen Economic Countries Europe’s economy. He is now co-leading a Growth Climate Change and Trade new project with Adam S. Posen on A Global Agriculture Approach to Decarbonization. Inequality Regional Trade Patterns

27 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS NONRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN

> Received enormous publicity on findings that India’s GDP growth has been significantly overstated since 2011, including in the Financial Times and The Indian Express > Raised idea of the “G minus Nonresident Senior Fellow 2” running the world economy Joined in 2007 at the Bretton Woods: 75 Years Later conference and in Subramanian was interviewed by Dr. Prannoy Roy on India’s broadcast station, NDTV. Expertise an op-ed for Project Syndicate International Trade System IN PROGRESS Development Policy Priorities for India and Growth India India and the United States in China the World Economy TAKESHI TASHIRO

> Cowrote Fiscal Policy Options for Japan (Policy Brief 19-7), which was cited by the special adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, the Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal Nonresident Senior Fellow > Wrote op-ed in Nikkei on Joined in 2018 “Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Japan” Expertise Financial Crises IN PROGRESS Tashiro’s Policy Brief 19-7, coauthored with Macroeconomic Olivier Blanchard, has been widely read in Japan Japanese Political Economy Policy and was discussed in this Project Syndicate and Secular Stagnation op-ed by Koichi Hamada, special adviser to East Asia and Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. Pacific Japan’s Economic Growth Japan Prospects

28 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS NONRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCH STAFF EDWIN M. TRUMAN

> Wrote on international coordination of economic policies in the global financial crisis (Working Paper 19-11) and chapter in First Responders: Inside the US Strategy for Fighting the 2007-2009 Global Nonresident Financial Crisis, edited by Ben Senior Fellow Bernanke, Timothy Geithner, Joined in 2001 and Henry Paulson, Jr. Truman and Christopher G. Collins’ blog post and PIIE Chart explained how President Trump Expertise > Quoted in the Financial wants a weaker dollar relative to currencies of International Times on Paul Volcker’s legacy US trading partners to boost US exports, but the Policy dollar has actually not strengthened much over Coordination IN PROGRESS the past four years. IMF International Economic Policy Sovereign Wealth Funds Coordination Revisited DAVID WILCOX

> Joined PIIE after serving in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board as deputy director. He was previously at the Treasury Department and senior economist for Nonresident the President’s Council of Senior Fellow Economic Advisers. Joined in 2019 > Wrote Policy Brief 19-16 on Expertise how average inflation targeting Monetary Policy is a weak tool for the Fed Economic Outlook IN PROGRESS Wilcox published an op-ed in the Washington Fiscal Policy Post arguing the Federal Reserve can best Global Economic Prospects Inflation respond to the president’s destructive trade actions by steadfastly remaining out of the The ECB’s Strategic Review of political fray. Monetary Policy Monetary Policy in an Environment of Persistently Low Interest Rates

29 SCHOLAR HIGHLIGHTS RESEARCH

GLOBALIZATION AND HUMAN WELFARE

Working Papers Blog Event Active Labor Market Policies: Adjusted for Aging, the US Combating Inequality: Rethinking Lessons from Other Countries Employment Rate Continued to Policies to Reduce Inequality in for the United States and The Rise Above Its Pre-Recession Advanced Economies Problem of US Labor Force Level in 2018 Conference coordinators: Olivier Participation Harris Eppsteiner (Harvard), Jason Blanchard (PIIE) and Dani Rodrik Chad P. Bown and Caroline Furman (Harvard and PIIE), and (Harvard) Freund (World Bank) Wilson Powell III (Harvard) Blanchard and Rodrik presided over US labor force participation has been The employment rate has fallen two days of presentations and panel weak, especially since the financial for younger workers, as more stay discussions by leading economists, crisis of 2007–09. The authors in school longer, but the rate has analyzing the sources of growing evaluate programs that governments risen for older workers, in part economic inequality in advanced USin Entrepreneurship other advanced industrial thanks Rate to better occupational Is Mostly safety countriesDriven and recommending tax, countries have established to help standards and improved educational spending, and regulatory changes By joblessHispanic workers, concluding Population that attainment. to assist low- and middle-income labor adjustment policies—such as workers. The conference papers will US ratejob of placement new opportunity-driven services, training, entrepreneurs, and by race/Hispanic origin be published in a book in 2020 by percentwage subsidies—can help workers MIT Press. 0.6 find new jobs. Average of White, Black, and Asian entrepreneurship

0.5 Hispanic White Black Asian 0.4

0.3

0.2 Working Paper Working Paper Policy Brief 0.1 The Economic Benefits of Measuring the Rise of Economic Opening#PIIECharts Internet Monopolies to Latino Immigration: How the Nationalism Competition with Data Sharing 0 Migrant Hispanic Population’s Monica de Bolle and Jeromin Mandates Demographic Characteristics Zettelmeyer Claudia Biancotti and Paolo Contribute to US Growth Ciocca Gonzalo Huertas and Jacob Funk The authors track the rise of Kirkegaard nationalist policies on trade, foreign Datasets compiled by a small number of technology giants are raising The Hispanic community in the investment, immigration, and concerns worldwide about privacy, United States, an increasingly multilateral organizations by studying personal and collective security, large share of the labor force, has the platforms of major political consumer rights, and competition. contributed to US economic growth parties in the Group of Twenty (G- Introducing data sharing mandates and will continue to do so as Hispanic 20) countries since the mid-2000s. would encourage greater competition educational attainment reaches and openness among these the US average and Hispanics companies. outperform other population cohorts in entrepreneurial activity. 30 RESEARCH 31 RESEARCH Ongoing Research Projects cobalt; and for major importing Competition Policy, Data countries. Privacy, and Taxation in the Nontraditional hubs Digital Era Uses and Misuses of Martin Chorzempa Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Patrick Honohan Studies the balance between cross-border data collection, Examines cross-country which feeds innovation in the differences between market and Traditional hubs United States and China, and the PPP exchange rates and the role issues of privacy, competition, of nontraded services and other Policy Brief and taxation policies, which are factors in potentially distorting The Rise of Global Innovation by traditionally based on a defined the comparisons. US Multinationals Poses Risks and Opportunities sovereign location. Immigration and Lee G. Branstetter, Britta Glennon, Demographics Economic Nationalism and J. Bradford Jensen Jacob Funk Kirkegaard Jérémie Cohen-Setton, Monica US multinational corporations are de Bolle, Madi Sarsenbayev, Studies the scope, channels, increasingly turning overseas for and Jeromin Zettelmeyer and trend developments in the research and development, raising Explores the economic effects Hispanic economic contribution concerns that these firms may lose of economic nationalism to the US economy, with a focus their competitive edge globally. New (protectionism, industrial on fertility rates, educational PIIE research shows that fears of subsidies, reduced domestic attainment, entrepreneurship a hollowing out of US innovative competition) through historical rates, and regional trends. capacity may be overstated. case studies and draws lessons Demographics, Divergence, for the 21st century. and Declining Dynamism Measurement of Inequality and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and Progressivity Adam S. Posen Jason Furman Examines the decline of Assesses and synthesizes the economic dynamism in recent different measures of the decades—and what can be done increase in inequality in the to reinvigorate it and how to United States and the degree of cope if it persists. progressivity of the tax system, Labor and National Income most importantly evaluating the Robert Z. Lawrence latest estimates by Emmanuel Studies the determining factors Saez and Gabriel Zucman. that have produced a declining Geopolitics of the Energy share of labor in national Transition income, emphasizing the role Cullen S. Hendrix of technology and the declining Examines the geopolitical possibilities of substituting and economic implications of labor for capital, especially in the greening of global energy manufacturing. systems, with emphasis on Women in Corporate the effects for hydrocarbon- Leadership producing economies; economies Marcus Noland with large endowments of key Examines the relative absence transition metals, like aluminum, of women in corporate copper, rare earths, lithium, and

30 31 RESEARCH leadership and its effect on and the stability of deep firm performance, including globalization, with a focus such factors as the difficulties on the likelihood of domestic of women rising to these political processes producing positions and possible public supportive globalization policies policy interventions that could and on the scope for multilateral encourage change; extends past cooperation in the current research to a 1997–2017 dataset. environment.

Globalization in Historical Perspective Maurice Obstfeld Studies long cycles in globalization, their determinants,

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE AND EXCHANGE RATES REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Event Event Event Banking Disrupted? Financial The Future of Money in the Digital Data Protection and Digital Intermediation in an Era of Age Finance Transformative Technology Lael Brainard (Board of Governors Claudia Biancotti, Martin Nicolas Véron and Tobias Adrian of the Federal Reserve System), Chorzempa, Thomas W. Halpin (IMF) Markus K. Brunnermeier (HSBC), Elise Houlik (Mastercard), (Princeton University), Martin and Nicolas Véron Véron addressed the Washington Wolf (Financial Times), Stefan launch of the latest Geneva Report Ingves (Riksbank), Simon Potter PIIE panelists and other participants on the World Economy, which (PIIE), and Hyun Song Shin (Bank discussed recent developments in examines the challenges posed by for International Settlements) advanced economies on protection of new technology-enabled global Brainard addressed the challenges digital data, changes in consumer and banking entities. Published by the to monetary policy and economic banking payment systems, and the International Center for Monetary regulation posed by growing need for privacy and data protection and Banking Studies and the Centre acceptance of digital currencies. Her in the financial sector in China and for Economic Policy Research, the keynote was delivered at a conference other countries. report advocates a more robust that included expert presentations approach by regulatory authorities. and discussions on the latest innovations in financial technology.

32 RESEARCH ventions and capital controls) in emerging-market economies.

International Capital Market Integration Maurice Obstfeld Studies the transmission of macro policies through international fi- nancial markets, the implications of financial openness for policy Blog Blog effectiveness, and the nature and Who Likes Facebook’s Libra Could Facebook’s Libra Affect extent of international financial Currency? Not the Chinese National Economies and Interest market integration. Martin Chorzempa Rates? Joseph E. Gagnon and Gonzalo International Economic Policy Facebook’s plan for a “simple global Huertas Coordination Revisited currency” called Libra—ostensibly Gagnon and Huertas call on Edwin M. Truman designed to “empower billions of policymakers to establish sensible Analyzes via a series of working people” to move money around the rules and sound supervision in papers four and a half decades world—has spurred predictable skep- exchange for allowing Facebook’s of international macroeconomic ticism in the Trump administration, proposed digital currency Libra to policy coordination and coopera- the US Congress, the Federal Reserve, operate in their countries. tion. and (not least) China, which for years has enjoyed global leadership in Anti–Money Laundering (AML) financial technology or “fintech.” Oversight Nicolas Véron Examines the development of Ongoing Research Projects Boom of Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets AML policies and institutions at Digital Currencies and the supranational level, especially Economic Fluctuations José De Gregorio, Nicolas Garcia, and Mauricio Jara in the context of the European Olivier Blanchard and Guido Lorenzoni (Northwestern Analyzes a sample of nonfinancial Union. University) listed firms in 15 emerging- Examines impact of digital cur- market economies, focusing International Financial Infrastructures and Financial rencies becoming not only a on the relationship between Sanctions medium of exchange but also aggregated offshore debt, cash Nicolas Véron units of account and how these holdings, and investment. Assesses the consequences of developments will change the recent developments in US finan- nature of economic fluctuations. Issues of Sovereign Debt Default and Transparency cial sanctions policy for interna- tional financial integration and Accumulation of Reserves in Anna Gelpern and coauthors Emerging Markets Proposes a unified definitional the structures and public over- José De Gregorio and Luis framework for sovereign debt sight of international financial Cabezas default and designs a framework infrastructures. Analyzes the increases in for collecting and disseminating international reserves during the Designing Euro Area Safe information on sovereign debt Assets 2000s in emerging-market and contract terms. Jeromin Zettelmeyer and developing countries, focusing on Álvaro Leandro mercantilist and precautionary Capital Flow Management Explores issues related to the motives as well as other reasons Olivier Jeanne design of euro area safe assets, why these countries chose to Analyzes the case for using non- focusing on debt securities issued accumulate them. conventional instruments (most by a euro area public issuer notably foreign exchange inter- without resorting to joint and several guarantees.

32 33 RESEARCH Figure 2 US GDP would fall slightly while China’s GDP rises. China loses INTERNATIONALmore welfare and other countries benefit. TRADE AND INVESTMENT Figure 1 Economic nationalism pre- and post-global financial crisis (GFC) in the United States Macroeconomic results, percent change No Scenario 1 4 4 4 4 4 Current taris as of June 1, 2019

GDP Final demand Terms of trade Exchange rate New

US -3.3%-0.02 -1.7%-0.04 -0.161.1 -1.80.15 3 3 3 3 3 3 Is the investor a citizen of only countries on the list? Or if Subject to CFIUS review China 0.02 -0.35 -1.2 -1the.26 -0 .7investor is a company:-1.52.09 Canada -0.02-1.5 -0.5 -1.20.16 -1.50.63 -1.050.7 CFIUS can now review, • Are all board members citizens of only countries on list? 2 2 2 2 2 2 Mexico -0.08 1.2 0.29 0.2• Are1.18 all owners-1.84>0.1 of 5% or more of the company citizens/firms require changes, reject

Japan -1.0-0.01 -0.90.05 of0. -135only.0 countries-0.280.1 on list? 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1.0->0.1 2.3 -1.0 -1.0 Scenario 2 -0-0.9.9 0.2-0.9 0.2-0.9 -0-0.9.9 Scenario 1 plus 25 percent US taris on nearly all remaining imports from China -0.7-0.7 -0.7-0.3 -0.7-0.3 -0.7-0.7 GDP Final demand Terms of trade Exchange rate No -0-0.7 .7 -01.0.7 -01.0.7 -0-0.7 .7 Industry International Competition Inward Immigration Multilateral Macroeconomic US -0-3.3%.13 -1.7%-0.07 -.160.45 -0.930.15 trade foreign direct organization policy -0.6-0.6 -01.2.6 -01.2.6 -0.6-0.6 investment China 0.06 -0.90 -1.2 -3.24 -0.7 -1.5 6.79 New -0-0.6.6 -0.6 2.6 -0.6 2.6 -0-0.6.6 Democratic Party Democratic Party Republican Party Canada -0.01-1.5 -0.5 -1.2 0.24 -1.50.89 -1.35 0.7 (pre-GFC) (post-GFC) (pre-GFC) -0-0.4.4 0.2-0.4 0.2-0.4 -0-0.4.4 Subject to CFIUS review Mexico -0.13 1.2 0.51 0.2 2.05 >0.1-3.24 Republican Party Republican Party (post-GFC) (President Trump) -0-0.4.4 0.4-0.4 0.4-0.4 -0-0.4.4 BlogJapan -1-0.0.02 -0.90.09 -10..065 -0.120.1 Blog and PIIECFIUS nowChart can review, require changes, Working Paper -0.4-0.4 -1.5-0.4 -1.5-0.4 -0.4-0.4 -1.0->0.1 2.3 -1.0 -1.0 reject; if in critical technology, filing is now -0.2-0.2 -00.6.2 -00.6.2 -0.2-0.2 -0-0.9.9 0.2-0.9 0.2-0.9 -0-0.9.9 mandatory Who’s-0.2-0.2 Winning-0.8-0.2 the US-China-0.8-0.2 -0.2 -0.2 New CFIUS Regulations: More Protectionism under Trump: The -0.7-0.7 Note: China includes Hong-0.7-0.3 Kong. Final demand is real-0.7-0 aggregate.3 final demand, -0.7GDP-0.7 + imports - exports. Terms of trade is the ratio of aggregate price indices, world prices of exports to -0.2-0.2 -00.2.2 -00.2.2 -0.2-0.2 -0-0.7 .7 world prices of imports. Exchange-01.0.7 rate is the real eective-01.0.7 exchange rate,-0 deflating-0.7 .7 by Trade War?producer price It’s index. A riseNot is a depreciation. the Bars are scaledUnited within each category, not Powerful, Transparent, and China Shock, Intolerance, and the -0.1 -0.1 between categories. -0.11.1 -0.11.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6-0.6 -01.2.6 -01.2.6 -0.6-0.6 States-0.1 -0.1 Source:or Authors’China calculations using-0.10.6 the global computable general-0.10.6 equilibrium (CGE)-0.1 -0.1model, GLOBE. Complex “First White President” -0-0.6.6 -0.6 2.6 -0.6 2.6 -0-0.6.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 Sherman-0-0.4.4 Robinson0.2-0.4 and 0.2Karen-0.4 -0-0.4.4 Martin Chorzempa Marcus Noland Thierfelder (US Naval Academy) The US Treasury’s proposed Noland argues that the election An extensive analysis of current and regulations for the Committee on of a protectionist president in threatened trade scenarios, based Foreign Investment in the United 2016 was more than a backlash on a global simulation model of States (CFIUS) appear to have been against globalization and that other the world economy, demonstrates carefully drawn, but their sheer important factors at work—such as that the US-China trade war will complexity will pose challenges for race, diversity, education, and age— leave both countries worse off US companies with potential foreign may be less susceptible to policy economically, while delivering gains investors. intervention. to other countries because of trade diversion and other factors.China Is Raising Taris on the United States and Lowering Them for Everybody Else

25China's average tari rate June 1 65 64 1980–85 1986–90 1991–95 1996–98 20.7% September 24 20 2019 18.3% 18.2% On US goods August 23 16.5% November 1 41 15 14.4% January 1 July 6 32 April 2 May 1 31 30 2018 29 29 July 1 10.1% 27 January 1 26 25 1025 25 8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.2% 21 20 8.0% 8.0% 19 18 January 1 6.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 15 12 13 5 11 10 On the rest of the 9 8 9 6 world’s goods 0 #PIIECharts Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-charts East Asia Industrial South Asia Middle East Europe and and Pacific economies WorkingLatin America Paper Central AsiaSource: See FigureBlog 1 of Chad P.and Bown, Euijin PIIE Jung, and Eva Chart (Yiwen) Zhang's blog, "Trump Has Gotten China to Lower Blog Its Tari„s. Just Toward Everyone Else." Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa Doesand theTrade Caribbean Reform Promote Trump Has Gotten China to Lower The USMCA: New, Modestly Source: World Bank (2001, 53). Economic Growth? A Review of Its Tariffs. Just Toward Everyone Improved, but Still Costly Recent Evidence Else. Mary E. Lovely and Jeffrey J. Douglas A. Irwin Chad P. Bown, Euijin Jung, and Schott Eva (Yiwen) Zhang Irwin examines recent research Lovely and Schott analyze the on the relationship between trade The authors’ intensive research costs and benefits of the newly liberalization and economic growth, demonstrates that while China revised United States–Mexico– concluding that reducing barriers was raising tariffs on imports from Canada Agreement (USMCA), to trade does have a positive impact the United States, it was lowering concluding that although the pact on economic growth, on average, them on imports from other trading strengthens enforcement of labor although the effect differs across partners at the same time, aimed at and environmental rights, it inflicts countries. sustaining a positive trade balance for a net negative impact on all three its export sector. economies because of more stringent auto production rules.

34 RESEARCH RESEARCH WTO: AGENDAS FOR REFORM

United States as complainant (23 cases total)

 9 3 Ruling favoring Settled via/during Pending complainant consultation

China as complainant ( 16 cases total)

4  3  7 Split decision

Ruling favoring respondent

Blog and PIIE Chart Working Paper Policy Brief In US-China Trade Disputes, WTO’ing a Resolution to the The WTO’s Existential Crisis: How the WTO Usually Sides with the China Subsidy Problem to Salvage Its Ability to Settle United States Chad P. Bown and Jennifer A. Trade Disputes Jeffrey J. Schott and Euijin Jung Hillman Jeffrey J. Schott and Euijin Jung Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Bown and Hillman propose that Schott and Jung advocate a targeted United States generally wins trade the WTO set new rules to address change in the WTO Appellate Body disputes, particularly against China, the US-China trade conflict by process that could mitigate US brought before the WTO. In 23 cases identifying and resolving the main concerns and encourage the Trump as of November 2019, the win-loss areas of tension arising from the administration to end its boycott of record is 20–0, with three pending. Chinese economic model, especially appointments to that body. its use of industrial subsidies and state-owned enterprises.

Ongoing Research Projects weekly Trade Talks podcast, specific actions and historical Decoupling with China, cohosted with Soumaya Keynes perspective. Technological Innovation, and of The Economist and featuring National Security guest experts presenting their Challenge of Chinese Martin Chorzempa Intellectual Property and research findings, with the aim Industrial Policies Analyzes how the United States of deepening public understand- Lee G. Branstetter and other countries balance na- ing of an open, rules-based global Examines the leverage used by tional security concerns with the economy. China to compel or persuade need for openness and protection multinationals to transfer tech- of innovation from theft or strate- World Trade Organization nology (such as artificial intel- gic purchases by China in emerg- Rules and China Chad P. Bown ligence) to its indigenous entities ing and critical technologies. Discusses how existing WTO as part of a Chinese policy to The United States, China, rules and enforcement provi- favor “national champions” in and the Global Economic sions can address the systemic this fastest growing sector of the Transformation challenges posed by China to the economy. C. Fred Bergsten United States, Europe, and Japan Globalization of R&D: Evidence Analyzes the economic confron- in the areas of merchandise trade, tation between China and the from US Multinationals services, investment, intellectual Lee G. Branstetter and J. United States for a forthcoming property, and subsidies. Bradford Jensen book The United States vs. China Studies the changes in scale, for Global Economic Leadership. Tracking US Trade Wars geographic distribution, and com- Chad P. Bown Explaining Trade and position by sector of research and Globalization Tracks US trade policy and its development (R&D) undertaken Chad P. Bown effects on economic activity and by US-based multinational firms the retaliation by China and other Illuminates trade issues and news overseas, particularly China and trading partners with a focus on developments via the popular India, focusing on the pace of

34 35 RESEARCH innovation and the relationship link between US multinationals’ one hand and international between R&D operations at home access to foreign markets and the trade on the other, examining and abroad. scale of headquarters’ activity in the interrelationships between the United States. income, trade, and carbon Reform of the World Trade emissions under various Organization and the Reform of Safeguard Rules Developing Countries illustrative scenarios. Robert Z. Lawrence Anabel González and Sherman Robinson Examines the increasing useless- US Economic Relations with Asia-Pacific Region Identifies reforms critical to ness of the World Trade Organi- zation’s “safeguards rules,” which Peter Petri and Michael sustain and modernize the multi- Plummer allow countries to impose tariffs lateral trading system and global Analyzes US economic in emergency situations, with an trade governance with a focus on relations with the Asia-Pacific eye to proposing reforms to make issues important to developing region, focusing on US-China them more effective in dealing countries. technological competition and with trade frictions between ad- new economic arrangements in Chinese Engagement in Africa vanced and developing countries. the region. Cullen S. Hendrix Manufacturing and Inclusive Assesses the implications of and Growth Regional Trade Patterns arguments over Chinese en- Robert Z. Lawrence Sherman Robinson gagement in Africa, focusing on Examines whether manufactur- Analyzes the evolution of postwar investment, military assistance, ing can still generate inclusive interconnected regional econo- and aid flows and their relation- growth, given the declining mies and trade agreements in ship to fostering or suppressing share of manufacturing employ- Europe, East and Southeast Asia, Africa’s economic development ment in advanced and devel- and North America. and whether these relationships oping countries, focusing on harm US interests. US Trade Negotiations a general theory of structural Involving China, Japan, the Developing Country Trade change that integrates the role of European Union, and the Liberalization demand, trade, and productivity. United Kingdom Douglas A. Irwin Jeffrey J. Schott with Gary Clyde Hufbauer Investigates the 1985–95 period Role of Multinational Firms in the “China Shock” Continues the examination of in which developing countries Mary E. Lovely trade negotiations between the opened their markets by elimi- Uses detailed trade data to assess United States and China, Japan, nating import licensing, exchange the extent to which the surge in the European Union, and the controls, quantitative restrictions, Chinese exports to the United United Kingdom, with assess- etc., and the lessons for countries States after 2001 was driven by ments of any likely deals, man- seeking to reform today. foreign-invested firms operating aged trade agreements, or break- WTO and the Multilateral in China; argues that a focus on down in talks that lead to more Trading System job losses from import competi- tariffs and retaliations. Douglas A. Irwin tion misses gains that accrued Examines the stress gripping the to skilled workers and capital as Reforming the World Trade Organization multilateral trading system and a result of product fragmenta- Jeffrey J. Schott with Gary the lessons from past efforts (suc- tion, cost reduction, and product Clyde Hufbauer introduction. cesses and failures) to construct a Examines progress in reforms of multilateral trade order. Climate Change and Trade the World Trade Organization, Role of Headquarters in the Marcus Noland, Sherman including governance issues, Global Economy Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder revising its dispute resolution J. Bradford Jensen Analyzes the relationship mechanism, and updates on the Assesses the employment and between policies and concerns treatment of national security innovation Implications of the about carbon emissions on the rationales for protectionism.

36 RESEARCH MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY

Blog Series Working Paper Lecture How to Confront the Next Global Dimensions of US Forecasting the Macroeconomic European Recession Monetary Policy Impact of Trade Wars and Brexit Jean Pisani-Ferry Maurice Obstfeld Adam S. Posen In a series of blog posts, Pisani-Ferry Obstfeld explores three main In the Annual Lecture at the DAFM

examines the paucity of monetary channelsPeterson Institute forthrough which global Research Centre at King’s Business International Economics policy tools to counter the next factors influence the policy tradeoffs School in London, Posen explored the recession and calls for creative faced by the Federal Reserve. impact of the US-China tariff war and thinking in fiscal policy, including Brexit on the global and European expenditures to counter global FACING UP economies. TO LOW warming, to deal with what he said PRODUCTIVITY Uncertainty and Other Factors Are would be an inevitable downturn in GROWTH Dragging Down the Global Economy Europe. Adam S. Posen and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, editors Percent GDP growth forecasts as of fall 2019

World US Euro area Japan UK China India Russia Brazil 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 expansion has weak spots tax hike will Brexit a drag sanctions recovery moderated be partly weighing continues 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6.8 7 7 oset 6.6 on growth to be slow 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.9 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

5 5 5 5 5 5 ongoing 5 brisk growth 5 5 structural fading slowdown 4 3.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3.3 3.3

3 3 2.9 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2.3 2.3 1.8 2 2 2 1.9 2 2 2 2 2 1.8 2 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 1 1 1 1 1 0.5 1 1 1 1 0.7 More than 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Blog Book EventLess than 0 Series -1’18 ’19 ’20 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 Further Thinking on the Costs and Facing Up to Low Productivity Global Economic Prospects Benefits of Deficits Growth Led#PIIECharts by Karen Dynan Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-charts Jason Furman (Harvard and Edited by Adam S. Posen and PIIE) and Lawrence H. Summers Jeromin Zettelmeyer In two separateNote: sessions,Annual average in over April annual average growth rates. (Harvard) and OctoberSources: 2019, ConsensusDynan Forecasts forecast for 2018, Peterson Institute for International Economics for 2019–20. Labor productivity growth in the that global economic growth was Furman and Summers challenge United States and other advanced slowing because of several factors, conventional thinking about the countries has slowed dramatically, including waning fiscal stimulus dangers of deficits and debts in the contributing to economic stagnation in the United States, higher trade United States, arguing that it may be and political unease. In this volume, barriers and uncertainty around trade premature (and dangerous to human a dozen renowned scholars analyze policy, Brexit, and other potential welfare) to close fiscal gaps now by the impact of sustained lower disruptions. legislating cuts in expenditures on productivity growth on public Social Security, Medicare, and other finances, social protection, trade, entitlement programs. capital flows, wages, inequality, and politics in these countries.

36 37 RESEARCH Figure 1 Nominal GDP growth and adjusted interest rate Phillips curves, accordingpercent to two hypotheses 16 High inflation, 1967Q4–1994Q4 Low inflation, 1959Q2–1967Q3 and 1995Q1–2018Q4 Nominal GDP growth Eect on inflation, percentage points 14 Eect on inflation, percentage points 4 4 Adjusted interest rate Low inflation bend Low inflation bend 3 Shiftin12g linear 3 Shifting linear

2 2 10 Œ Œ

0 8 0

-1 6 -1

-2 -2 4 -3 -3

-4 2 -4 -4-5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 -4-5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Unemployment gap, percent Unemployment gap, percent 0

Note: The curves depict the marginal e ect of the unemployment gap on core consumer price index (CPI) inflation. -2Low inflation is when lagged 8-quarter core CPI inflation is less than 3 percent.

Source: Figure 6 in Joseph E. Gagnon and Christopher G. Collins, Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Working CurvePaper, PIIE Working-4 Paper No. 19-6, 2019, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Policy Brief Working Paper 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Should Monetary Policy Take Curve Costs in a Time of Low Interest Inequality and Climate Change Joseph E. Gagnon and Rates into Account? Christopher G. Collins Olivier Blanchard Patrick Honohan The Phillips curve, which traces In his presidential address to the Honohan argues that while central the inverse relationship between American Economic Association in banks maintain their independence, inflation and unemployment, has January 2019, Blanchard suggested they can also help improve the been redefined because of current that in some cases, the benefits effectiveness of public policy on such conditions of low inflation and low of public debt outweigh the costs broad issues as inequality and climate unemployment. Gagnon addresses for some countries in the current change. this situation by noting that the curve environment of low interest rates. may be nonlinear when inflation is This Policy Brief summarizes his low. arguments and addresses some criticisms of his conclusions.

Ongoing Research Projects Revisiting Automatic Output Effects of Taxes and Stabilizers Expenditures Assessing Fiscal Space Olivier Blanchard and Jérémie Cohen-Setton and Olivier Blanchard Lawrence Summers Egor Gornostay Studies the meaning of the Examines the larger role that Uses various methods to widely used term “fiscal space” must be played by automatic identify changes in taxes and and whether and how it can be stabilizers in light of current expenditures and documents measured. constraints on monetary policy their impact on economic Targeting Wage Inflation and proposes the introduction activity. Olivier Blanchard and Chris of semiautomatic stabilizers, triggered by unemployment Redesigning Fiscal Policy and Erceg Automatic Stabilizers to Deal Assesses the pros and cons of measures exceeding certain with the Next Recession shifting the inflation target from thresholds. Karen Dynan price inflation to wage inflation. Labor Force Composition and Explores ways to redesign au- Wage Growth tomatic stabilizers and develop Nonstandard Fiscal Policies Jérémie Cohen-Setton and fiscal stimulus policies to plan Olivier Blanchard, Chris Erceg Egor Gornostay (IMF), and Jesper Linde (IMF) for the next recession, focus- Uses machine learning ing also on policy choices like Examines policies that may techniques to assess whether progressivity of the tax code, the increase demand and output changes in the composition of social safety net, the low interest without relying on larger budget the labor force can help explain rate environment, and linger- deficits. the causes of low wage growth ing concerns about the efficacy since the recent financial crises of fiscal stimulus during the last in the United States and Japan. recession.

38 RESEARCH Global Economic Prospects What Drives Current Account The ECB’s Strategic Review of Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Imbalances? Monetary Policy Maurice Obstfeld, and David Joseph E. Gagnon with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Wilcox Christopher G. Collins Joseph E. Gagnon, and David Semiannual production and Expands on previous research Wilcox presentation of forecasts for the concluding that fiscal policy and Examines the European Central global economy, including the foreign exchange intervention Bank’s monetary policies and challenges facing policymakers were the two most important their potential for adjusting to in the major G-20 economies. factors behind global trade the challenges in the 2020s. imbalances; updates the High-Pressure Economy A Global Approach to statistical work by extending Decarbonization Jason Furman and broadening the sample of Jean Pisani-Ferry and Adam S. Examines the benefits, costs, and countries and years and testing Posen risks posed by the current high- for additional factors. Proposes a how-to for pressure US economy. international policies to shift Law and Macroeconomics investment and trade. Current Accounts and Anna Gelpern Exchange Rate Management Examines whether and how Central Bank Implementation Joseph E. Gagnon law and law scholarship might Regimes Proposes guidelines for exchange engage with macroeconomic Simon Potter rate management that enhance policy and research. Examines the relative efficiency the stability and sustainability and effectiveness of corridor of the global economy by Ensuring Financial Stability versus floor systems for leaning against excessive trade Anna Gelpern implementing monetary policy. imbalances. Proposes an approach to regulating systemically Monetary Policy in an Low Inflation Bends the Environment of Persistently Phillips Curve around the important financial activities in Low Interest Rates World light of recent abandonment of David Wilcox and David Joseph E. Gagnon with the designation “systemically Reifschneider Christopher G. Collins important financial Institutions.” Develops recommendations Looks across 43 advanced and for how the Federal Reserve Money and Government Debt emerging-market economies should—and should not— Olivier Jeanne to see how economic slack adapt to a world in which the Analyzes how inflation (including unemployment) conventional tools of monetary targeting mandates for central influences price and wage policy will be wholly inadequate banks should be revised in inflation. Focuses on the to the task of fighting future macroeconomic environments resistance of inflation to further recessions. downward pressure from a where low interest rates have weak economy when inflation is obscured the distinction between already very low. money and government debt.

38 39 RESEARCH Amazon Deforestation Is Fast Nearing Tipping Figure 4 Ratio of public debt service to GDP in Japan, Point When Rainforest Cannot Sustain Itself 1990–2017 DeforestationREGIONAL of the Amazon rainforest, thousands STUDIES of square miles percent of GDP 20.020 3.5 17.5 16.6 3.0 15.015 Estimated Gross interest payments deforestation 2.5 based on 12.5 current rate 2004 2.0 10 Brazilian government launches the 10.0 Action Plan for the Prevention 1.8% and Control of Deforestation in 8.3 1.5 7.5 the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm) Net interest payments 1.0 5 5.0 4.2 0.5 0.4% 2.5 Copenhagen Accord 2020 goal 1.5 0 0 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 fiscal year #PIIECharts Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-charts

PolicyNote: The estimatesBrief for 2019 toand 2021 were calculated PIIE by maintaining Chart the rate of increase in China Trip Policy Brief deforestation estimated between January and August 2019 by INPE. The numbers and scale of the Source: National Accounts of Japan. chart have been corrected from an earlier published version to reflect the conversion from square kilometers to square miles. The conclusion regarding the tipping point in 2021 remains unchanged. TheSource: AmazonBrazil’s National Institute for IsSpace Researcha Carbon (INPE) and author’s calculations. Bomb: Eighth Annual PIIE-CF40 Beijing Fiscal Policy Options for Japan How Can Brazil and the World Conference Olivier Blanchard and Takeshi Work Together to Avoid Setting Tashiro It Off? PIIE President Adam S. Posen led Monica de Bolle a PIIE delegation to Beijing, where The Japanese government has not scholars presented papers and delivered on its promises to return An examination of official and held discussions at a conference to primary budget surpluses. The unofficial data demonstrates that at with the China Finance 40 Forum. authors argue, however, that in the the current rate of deforestation, the A key objective was to maintain current economic environment, Amazon region will be close to the constructive engagement with China Japan may need primary deficits for estimated “tipping point” as soonIran’s as Central Bank Has Become a Lifeline for despite trade and security tensions in a long time to sustain demand and 2021, beyond which the rainforestthe Country’s Ailing Banking System 2019. output growth. can no longer generate enoughContribution rain to of Central Bank of Iran’s lending to banks to growth of monetary base sustain itself. Growth of monetary base Contribution of central bank claims on banks ( percent ) ( percent age points = pp)

50 In 2018, Iran’s money supply grew 40 19% Central bank claims 30 on banks made up 18 pp of that growth

20

10

0 REUTERS/Sergio Moraes Negative contribution Pixabay/MurlocCra4ler -10 indicates when banks paid Working Paper Policyback central Brief bank Policy Brief -20 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Inflation Targets in Latin America Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking The Return of Economic José De Gregorio #PIIECharts Crisis Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-chartsNationalism in Germany Adnan Mazarei Jeromin Zettelmeyer De Gregorio reviews the history of Note: The monetary base is the type of money supply that is most under the control of central banks, driven in part by central bank lending to banks and direct lending to the government. Data are for Iranian fiscal chronic inflation in Latin America, US sanctions,years ending March reimposed 20. in 2018, Germany’s new National Industrial focusing on the experience with haveSource: Centralweakened Bank of Iran. Iran’s fragile banking Strategy 2030 advocates an inflation targets and performance system, already hobbled by state aggressive industrial policy, but during the global financial crisis in mismanagement, corruption, and its tone and much of its content Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, weak regulation by the Central Bank are unmistakably nationalist and Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and of Iran. economically dangerous. Uruguay.

40 RESEARCH 41 RESEARCH Ongoing Research Projects Chinese Exchange Rate Regime Financial Regulation and Technology in China Olivier Jeanne Martin Chorzempa Analyzes the extent to which Analyzes the rise of financial China should let the renminbi technology in China and its float freely and the policy innovative app-based data instruments that it should use to economy, focusing on the manage its exchange rate. challenges it poses for regulators A “Green New Deal” in Europe seeking to ensure financial Book Jacob Funk Kirkegaard stability and protect consumers. The State Strikes Back: The End Explains and evaluates the of Economic Reform in China? Fiscal Rules in the European European Union’s plan for a Nicholas R. Lardy Union carbon tax and other steps to China’s rapid economic growth since Olivier Blanchard, Jeromin address climate change, with 1978, driven by market-oriented Zettelmeyer, and Álvaro a focus on their economic and Leandro reforms, has set world records and trade impacts. Assesses how the European continued unabated. In this book Union’s fiscal rules should be Lardy argues that China’s future Financing the Private Sector in revisited in light of the low China growth is imperiled by resurgent interest rate environment. Nicholas R. Lardy state dominance in the economy, Evaluates the steps taken by marginalizing the role of private Trends in Latin American China’s government to ameliorate firms. Economies the credit squeeze on private Monica de Bolle sector firms, which have been the Analyzes the swing to rightwing major source of economic growth nationalism in Latin American for most of the 40-year reform economies, with a focus on period (1978–2018) but which Argentina, Chile, and Brazil, and have had to turn to nonbank the effects on poverty and income financial institutions (shadow inequality. banking) as banks curtailed their Evolution of the African lending to the private sector in Continental Free Trade Area the past five years. Anabel González Recent Trade and Investment Tracks progress on the negotia- Liberalization in China tions of the African Continental Nicholas R. Lardy Free Trade Area Agreement and Assesses recent liberalizing steps perspectives for deepening trade by China in the context of trade integration in Africa. and investment frictions with Latin America’s Perspectives the United States, including on Global Trade Issues and China’s decision in 2018 to cut Trade Agreements its most-favored nation tariffs Anabel González by 25 percent, reducing the list Explores how the changing of areas in which foreign direct trade policy landscape affects investment is prohibited and Latin American countries and easing foreign ownership caps in how these countries position financial services and automobile themselves in the current manufacturing. context.

40 41 RESEARCH China’s Use of Foreign Direct Iran’s Economic Troubles establish a US-India economic Investment as an Industrial Adnan Mazarei partnership that could affect the Policy Examines Iran’s potential region and the world economy, to Mary E. Lovely economic and financial stability be published as a PIIE Briefing in Analyzes how China uses foreign in the wake of sanctions imposed early 2020. direct investment policies to by the United States and a shape industrial policy, influence possible US-Iran conflict. Japan’s Economic Growth foreign firm competition, affect Prospects international relations, and Japanese Political Economy Takeshi Tashiro impact technology transfers from and Secular Stagnation Studies Japan’s economic growth advanced countries. Adam S. Posen and Takeshi prospects, with an emphasis on Tashiro macroeconomic policy choices. Evolution of China’s Trade Analyzes the potential effects and Patterns policy responses related to the Financial Sector Consequences Mary E. Lovely impact of secular stagnation on of Brexit Nicolas Véron Describes the evolution of Japan’s political economy. China’s import and export Assesses financial services sector patterns since its accession to Policy Priorities for India scenarios and policy responses the World Trade Organization in Arvind Subramanian in the continued developments 2001, with special attention to the Assesses the latest trends and following the UK decision to exit US-China relationship and the prospects for Indian economic the European Union from the role of East Asian multinational stability in light of looming British, European, and global firms in mediating supply chain challenges of slow growth, perspectives. trade linking the region to the employment, agriculture, the globalization backlash, and Toward a European Banking United States. Union “stigmatized” capitalism. Macroeconomic Stability and Nicolas Véron Growth in the MENA Region India and the United States in Assesses policy proposals and Adnan Mazarei the World Economy develops new ones toward Examines the political economy Arvind Subramanian, Euijin completing the project started and economic stability of the Jung, Jeffrey J. Schott, in 2012 of pooling policy Mary E. Lovely, Jacob Funk countries in the Middle East and Kirkegaard, Ashley Tellis, and responsibility for banking sector North Africa (MENA) region. Steven Weisman oversight and crisis management Assesses in several chapters the from the national to the euro area unsteady relationship between level. the United States and India and the obstacles to be overcome to

42 RESEARCH CHINA PROGRAM

Institute scholars in Beijing at a joint conference with the China Finance 40 Forum

> PIIE maintained its constructive, high-level its potential. The book also outlines many “[…] Lardy has engagement with China despite tensions economically beneficial reforms to help China really defined in 2019 over trade, security, and other meet its economic growth objectives. Lardy’s China’s new issues. For the eighth consecutive year PIIE blogs, op-eds, and commentary in 2019 President Adam S. Posen led a delegation argued that China was continuing to expand economic era.” of Institute scholars to Beijing, where they the role of the state in its economy. Keith Bradsher, participated in a joint conference with the New York Times > Research Fellow Martin Chorzempa China Finance 40 Forum, one of the leading focused this past year on technology Shanghai bureau Chinese independent think tanks. The respect and national security issues that may be chief that PIIE commands in China remains encouraging a US “decoupling” from China. extraordinary. A highlight was a visit with His expertise on proposals for tighter controls China’s Vice President Wang Qishan at the on technology exports to China, and stricter Hall of Purple Light, in the Zhongnanhai security reviews on Chinese investments into leadership compound reserved for China’s the United States, has commanded attention top officials to discuss a range of US-China throughout the policymaking community. issues. The delegation also met former The manuscript of his forthcoming book, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) governor Cashless China: How the World’s Most Zhou Xiaochuan and Chinese scholars to Populous Country Vaulted Ahead of the West discuss World Trade Organization reform. in Financial Technology, has been circulated Other high-level meetings included sessions among senior fellows and experts for with China’s Banking and Insurance comment. Regulatory Commission Chairman and PBOC Party Secretary Guo Shuqing. For the second year, the Institute hosted an event in Washington with Caixin, a top economic and financial media organization. > Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow Nicholas Lardy’s latest book, The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China? remains widely cited. It maintains that stagnation and reversals of market reforms have dragged Chinese growth below

42 43 RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS AND MEDIA OUTREACH

MAJOR OUTREACH GAINS

NEWSLETTER RELAUNCH > PIIE was cited in editorials in leading “Mr. Trump will newspapers including the Financial Times > PIIE redesigned its email newsletter, now have defied and Washington Post; featured on premier called PIIE Insider, to provide new exclusive a lesson programs including CNN’s The Situation content, like PIIE in the News and What Room with Wolf Blitzer, PBS News of history: We’re Reading, in an easy-to-read format Hour, and Fareed Zakaria’s GPS on CNN; Multiple-front optimized for mobile devices. Promotional and mentioned much more frequently on efforts included a paid advertising campaign, wars are the influential platforms including Politico and organic social media and email blasts, and hardest to Axios. a smoother, more visible website signup win, whether process. In the three months following > News outlets including the New York they are of the update, newsletter subscribers grew 11 Times, CNN, and USA Today, and the military percent, and readership rates remain far organizations including FactCheck.org and kind or trade above industry standards. Visit piie.com/ PolitiFact, cited PIIE data in their widely subscribe to sign up. read fact-checking columns. wars. Fighting without allies is > PIIE regularly gets its research and PIIE IN THE NEWS insights into Politico’s influential morning harder still.” > In 2019, PIIE began an earned-media newsletters, increasing mentions 64 percent “Trump’s biggest campaign that helped expand coverage from 2018. mistake in the trade war with by 17 percent in major news outlets and > Among the most quoted senior fellows Editorial maintained high visibility across media were Chad P. Bown and Mary E. Lovely China,” markets relative to its size and peers. With on their analyses of trade policy and Board, Washington proactive pitching and rapid response to developments; Nicholas Lardy on his 2019 Post, May 9, with news events, PIIE placed its experts and book The State Strikes Back and the Chinese citation of Chad P. research in stories on topics ranging from economy and politics; and Olivier Blanchard, Bown’s research trade and economic outlook, to Brexit, whose research on fiscal policy was widely fintech, interest rates, fiscal policy, currency referenced by news reporters and opinion manipulation, repo market events, protests columnists. Journalists and producers in Hong Kong and Paris, turmoil in Brazil frequently seek out Adam S. Posen for his and Venezuela, and other geopolitical insights on the global economic outlook and unrest. expertise on central banking and Brexit.

44 COMMUNICATIONS AND MEDIA OUTREACH Op-ed highlights Notable increases in news coverage, 2019 vs. 2018 > PIIE scholars published nearly 150 op-eds in 2019, with many in top media outlets. Nicholas Lardy wrote “Xi Jinping’s turn away from the market puts Chinese growth at risk,” for the Financial Times in January. David Wilcox’s op-ed, “Should the Fed enable Trump’s destructive trade policies?” was published in the Washington Post in September. Mary Lovely wrote a series of op-eds for CNN, including, “Trump’s New Tariffs Will Cause More Pain for Americans” in August.

PIIE TALKS TO > Monica de Bolle told legislators transfer in a hearing before the POLICYMAKERS in the US House Foreign Affairs US-China Economic and Security Official testimony Committee that fires in the Amazon Review Commission. rainforest should compel Brazil and > C. Fred Bergsten called on President Trump to stop denying Other Hill outreach Congress to rein in President climate change and cooperate on > Jeffrey J. Schott and Chad P. Trump’s ability to unilaterally strategies to preserve the rainforest Bown were invited to participate impose high tariffs on trading while sustainably using its natural in two different Congressional partners in a hearing before the resources. Trade Series events hosted by US House Financial Services Representative Stephanie Murphy Committee. > Chad P. Bown warned the US (D-FL). Schott explained the dangers House Foreign Affairs Committee > Olivier Blanchard testified before of a rift with Europe over the United of the United States hindering the the US House Budget Committee States insisting that auto imports are WTO system for settling disputes. that increasing deficits and debts at a threat to US national security. Bown discussed how difficult it is a time of low interest rates is an ac- to win a trade war and the need to ceptable risk. > Mary E. Lovely recommended pursue solutions on trade issues that Washington work with allies with China in tandem with other to change Chinese practices on countries. intellectual property and technology

PIIE has proactively reached out to policymakers through Twitter, regularly tweeting during relevant US House or Senate committee meetings, featuring PIIE scholars if they were testifying, tagging specific congresspeople, and responding to claims with research. By joining conversations on topics policymakers are working on, PIIE can more effectively connect leaders to reliable information. Notable examples include:

> After Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) said in a Senate Finance subcommittee hearing that a unified effort in Asia under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) or similar pact would be useful for counterbalancing China, PIIE tagged him with a link to a blog post by Jeffrey J. Schott, “Why Reconsidering the TPP Might Attract Trump.” Cornyn’s team retweeted this to his 257,000 followers.

> US Representative Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) cited PIIE research in a hearing on the WTO, showing how the United States wins most of its dispute cases against China. The data were available only in a PIIE Chart that was highly popular on Twitter.

44 45 COMMUNICATIONS AND MEDIA OUTREACH Fans of Trade Talks shared photos of their podcast swag on social media.

NEW LEVELS OF FANDOM tells the story of the profound and VISUALIZING DATA FOR TRADE TALKS difficult choices that European PIIE continues investing in data leaders are still wrestling with. > > Since launching in 2017, the Trade visualization to better communicate Talks podcast has won a dedicated Educators can now find relevant research findings. The PIIE Chart following worldwide with its up-to- resources from PIIE under the series, graphs from blogs, and other date analysis, top-notch guests, and Educational Resources topic page at visuals drew high engagement on engaging storylines. PIIE undertook piie.com. social media and also made the a major advertising and branding news. The top chart of the year by campaign starting in February 2019 THOUGHT LEADERSHIP website views was US-China Trade to reach even more listeners and War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart, > PIIE hosted the opening session deepen fan engagement, with a new made with Chad P. Bown, which of the Sixth Annual North American website at tradetalkspodcast.com continually tracked average tariff Think Tank Summit with a keynote and redesigned email newsletter. rates between the United States address by PIIE board member Peter PIIE then launched an advertising and China. Bown’s chart showing Orszag. The event focused on the campaign on social media and a how China was raising tariffs on the common problems facing think tanks related podcast, paired with a “swag United States while lowering them in the world today. giveaway” campaign to entice for other countries was featured on existing listeners to promote the > When WonkComms, a network CNN. podcast to their own social networks. of think tank communications Average weekly listenership is up 21 professionals started in the THE STATE STRIKES BACK percent in late 2019 compared with United Kingdom, was looking to > Nicholas Lardy’s book, The State early 2019. A listing of all Trade Talks set up a Washington, DC group, Strikes Back: The End of Economic podcast episodes with recommended it asked the Peterson Institute Reform in China? made the New York listening lists for educators is also communications team to help Times and Financial Times lists of now available for download. organize it. WonkComms DC now convenes policy and think tank recommended books for 2019. The Financial Times alone cited it nine EDUCATIONAL OUTREACH communications professionals regularly to share knowledge on how times in six months including in an > Many of us have heard this refrain to communicate research and make editorial. Lardy presented the book to from students—how does what I’m an impact. PIIE hosted the first event more than two dozen organizations learning in the classroom relate in July on “Leveraging the News around the world and in the United to the real world? To address this Cycle.” States, including at the Council on complaint, PIIE has published its Foreign Relations, Federal Reserve first case study to better educate > The PIIE communications team Bank of San Francisco, and US tomorrow’s leaders in economics, helped Trade Experettes, a women’s Chamber of Commerce. business, public policy, and more. trade expert group with members “The Greek Debt Crisis” examines from the Institute, develop branding the lessons learned from Greece’s materials for their website and social near bankruptcy, the gravest media accounts, as well as provide financial crisis confronting Europe guidance on best social media since World War II. The interactive practices. piece, with videos and graphics,

46 COMMUNICATIONS AND MEDIA OUTREACH MEETINGS PROGRAM

EVENT HIGHLIGHTS

Combating Inequality conference; Gene Sperling (Former National Economic Council Director), Gabriel Zucman (University of California, Berkeley), Stefanie Stantcheva (Harvard University), Wojciech Kopczuk (Columbia University)

THE CHANGING INTERNATIONAL debated on the challenge of reducing TRADING SYSTEM economic inequality in the United States and Value Chains, Digital Trade, and WTO other advanced countries. Two dozen experts Reform aired views on tax reform, income transfer > Roberto Azevedo, director-general of programs, investments in education and the World Trade Organization, declared training, strengthening the rights of workers, that the WTO should not be viewed as an and many other topics. The presentations end in itself but as a contributor to global will be published by MIT Press and PIIE in a economic prosperity. He appealed for the book in 2020. United States to work with WTO members to resolve disputes that have crippled the CORPORATE TAXATION IN THE Appellate Body’s ability to function. Panelists GLOBAL ECONOMY addressing the importance of protections > Several experts addressed widespread for digital trade and global supply chains concern over multinational corporations included Susan Lund (McKinsey Global escaping their fair share of taxes. Christine Institute), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Doug Lagarde, at the time managing director of Murtha (Toyota Motor Sales), Daria the International Monetary Fund, called Taglioni (World Bank Group), Claudia for “a corporate tax system that better Biancotti (PIIE), Gary Clyde Hufbauer reflects the changes in the global economy,” (PIIE), David Weller (Google), Natalie Blyth noting that the “public perception that large (HSBC), Chad P. Bown (PIIE), and Anabel multinational companies pay little tax has González (PIIE). led to political demands for urgent action.” Michael Keen, deputy director of the COMBATING INEQUALITY IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, presented Rethinking Policies to Reduce Inequality the findings from their latest policy paper, in Advanced Economies “Corporate Taxation in the Global Economy.” > In two days of presentations and A panel discussion followed with Vitor discussions organized by Olivier Blanchard Gaspar (IMF), Mindy Herzfeld (University (PIIE) and Dani Rodrik (Harvard of Florida Levin College of Law), and Gary University), policies were outlined and Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE).

47 MEETINGS PROGRAM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN ITALY AND EUROPE Christine Lagarde spoke > Giovanni Tria, minister of at the launch of a major economy and finance of Italy, IMF study on international taxation, saying it is forecast a murky outlook for Italy possible to create a and Europe in January, while calling corporate tax system that for steps to reduce poverty, combat better reflects the changes unemployment, and make public in the global economy. investments in schools and human capital to improve productivity.

THE FUTURE OF MONEY IN THE DIGITAL AGE In October, Dynan and PIIE urged Brazil to do more to integrate economists forecast further slowing itself into the global trading and > Lael Brainard, member of the of the US economy, with a rising risk supply chain system. Board of Governors of the Federal of recession. Jean Pisani-Ferry, PIIE Reserve System, reviewed how visiting fellow, assessed the situation PRINCIPLED AGENTS technology has changed money in Europe following Brexit, and Reflections on Central Bank and said that the proliferation Maurice Obstfeld, PIIE nonresident Independence of bitcoin and other digital senior fellow, addressed how the > In the 19th Annual Stavros Niar- currencies posed new challenges Federal Reserve should respond. chos Foundation lecture, Governor for monetary policymakers. In Lesetja Kganyago of the South Af- particular, Facebook’s proposed GOOD OUTCOMES rican Reserve Bank and chair of the new global digital currency called THROUGH GROWTH International Monetary and Finan- Libra underscored the urgency Paths to Development Success cial Committee declared that central of a national debate on digital bank independence from politics was money. Also speaking at the event > David R. Malpass, who became vital but also something that had to were Markus K. Brunnermeier president of the World Bank Group be earned every day. Central bankers, (Princeton University), Martin Wolf in April 2019, delivered his first he said, must work hard to live up to (Financial Times), Stefan Ingves Washington speech in his new role the expectations of citizens. (Riksbank), Simon Potter (PIIE), on development policies under his and Hyun Song Shin (Bank for leadership. He said the slowdown THE US ECONOMY AND International Settlements). in world growth and the low rate of fixed capital formation, especially TRADE POLICY GLOBAL ECONOMIC in developing countries, were A Conversation with Lawrence Kudlow PROSPECTS hampering the ability of developing countries to prosper. He called > In a “fireside chat” with C. Fred Spring and Fall 2019 on these countries to reform their Bergsten (PIIE), Lawrence A. > In their April presentation, a team economies to stimulate growth. Kudlow, assistant to President led by Karen Dynan, nonresident se- Donald Trump for economic nior fellow at PIIE and former chief MINISTER GUEDES policy and director of the National economist at the US Department of DISCUSSES BRAZIL’S Economic Council, said the Trump the Treasury, found that global eco- ECONOMIC AGENDA administration’s economic policies, nomic growth had lost momentum. especially tax cuts and deregulation, > Paulo Guedes, minister of the Joseph E. Gagnon, PIIE senior fel- had led to unprecedented economic economy of Brazil, called on Brazil’s low, discussed inflation and Federal growth. He said the long-term government to take bold steps to rein Reserve monetary policy. Martin objective of US trade policy is to in uncontrolled public spending. He Chorzempa, PIIE research fellow, achieve lower tariff barriers, but the proposed decentralizing government assessed the reasons for China’s United States had to employ tariffs and giving mayors and governors a slowdown. to seek an end to China’s restrictive nationwide “fiscal framework” to economic policies and abuses of help them limit expenditures. He intellectual property rights.

48 MEETINGS PROGRAM FUNDING

FACTS ABOUT OUR FUNDING FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR THE PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

Financial support for the Institute’s Ninety percent of total revenues include employment, consulting, operations is provided through in 2019 were provided without or ownership relationships with donations and grants from substantive restriction, allowing the firms or public institutions that corporations, individuals, private support to be used at the Institute’s could be substantially affected by foundations, and public institutions, discretion to fund ongoing programs their research. This requirement as well as income on the Institute’s rather than being earmarked for applies to relationships that have capital fund and from publishing particular research projects. While been active three years prior revenues. We are proud to meet the some donor funds—particularly to publication and includes all market test of having to raise well foundation grants—are restricted coauthors of PIIE publications, over half of our funding every year. to support of individual research not just PIIE staff. Authors must projects, donors do not influence the also disclose any potential conflict Institute supporters vary in their conclusions or policy implications of interest to the Institute that level of engagement and financial drawn from Institute research. All might arise as a result of leadership contribution. Valuable support Institute research is independent positions or board memberships in comes from donors at a range of and held to strict standards of advocacy groups. financial commitments. Donations replicability and academic integrity. made at the $100,000+ level across Funders are never given the right all categories of supporters made All Institute books, Policy Briefs, to final review of any Institute up less than half (41 percent) of the Briefings, and Working Papers publication prior to its release. Institute’s overall budget for 2019. acknowledge any direct funding Sources of financial support for the Only 6 percent of total donations in sources, and web pages for these Institute have been listed annually 2019 were made by supporters who publications provide links to on the PIIE website since June requested that their gifts be publicly underlying data files or sources 2013. We provide annual listings for attributed as anonymous. to allow independent replication 2010–19. of analyses. Author disclosures

49 FUNDING SOURCES OF FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR PIIE, 2019

$1,000,000 and above Nordic American Tankers Marubeni Americas Corporation Peter G. Peterson Foundation* Royal Dutch Shell plc Microsoft Corporation The Estate of David Rockefeller* Sybiel B. Berkman Foundation Mitsubishi Corporation MUFG Bank, Ltd $250,000 to $999,000 $50,000 to $74,999 Procter and Gamble EY All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd. Michael Stuenkel Open Philanthropy Project Fund BNP Paribas Swiss National Bank Toyota Motor Corporation Frank Brosens Temasek Private Ltd. 1 Anonymous Contributor Citadel Americas LLC Tudor Investment Corporation D. E. Shaw & Co., L.P. Sam Weatherford $100,000 to $249,999 Duquesne Family Office William M. Keck, Jr. Foundation Aflac, Inc. Element Capital Management LLC BlackRock Financial Management Elliott Management Corporation Up to $24,999 Inc. FedEx Corporation Caroline Atkinson Caterpillar, Inc. Joan Ganz Cooney C. Fred Bergsten Chevron Corporation General Electric Neeti Bhalla Johnson Chubb Limited GIC Private Ltd. Central Bank of China, Taipei Council for the United States and Lorin Gu Phebe Condict Miller* Italy JP Morgan Chase Jessica and Robert Einhorn Cyrus Capital Partners, L.P. The Olayan Group Anthony R. Elson Eranda Rothschild Foundation James Owens European Parliament Stephen Freidheim Pretium Partners LLC Peter Fisher GoldenTree Asset Management Rokos Capital Management R. Michael Gadbaw HSBC Holdings plc Lawrence H. Summers and Elisa F. GE Foundation IBM International Foundation New Robert Granieri Jay Jacobs Symmetry Investments Hills & Company Michael Klein Taconic Capital Advisors LP Japan Bank for International Mastercard Inc. Visa, Inc. Cooperation Morgan Stanley William Von Mueffling Kikkoman Foods Inc. Norges Bank Investment Wells Fargo & Co. Korea International Trade Management 3 Anonymous Contributors Association PepsiCo, Inc. Embassy of Liechtenstein Joseph E. Robert Jr. Charitable $25,000 to $49,999 Donald McHenry Trust Aramco Services Company McLarty Companies Stavros Niarchos Foundation Capital Group Mitsui & Co. (USA) Inc. 2 Anonymous Contributors Dai-ichi Life Insurance Company, Monetary Authority of Singapore Ltd. Peter Orszag $75,000 to $99,999 Deere & Company Research Institute for Housing Aegon Asset Management Exxon Mobil America Bessemer Trust Lee and Juliet Folger Richard Salomon Cathay Capital Europe S.à.r.l Ford Motor Company Sumitomo Corporation Caxton Associates LP General Motors Company Taipei Foreign Exchange Market Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Kent Ho Development Foundation Graticule Asset Management Asia, Stephen and Katherine Howe UBS AG LLC ING Wholesale Banking Robert Zoellick Lazard, Ltd Intesa Sanpaolo SpA David Leuschen ITOCHU Corporation *Contribution towards PIIE’s Endowment Liberty Mutual Group, Inc. Japanese Ministry of Economy, McKinsey & Company Trade and Industry Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. Christopher Jin

50 FUNDING COMPENDIUM

2019 PUBLICATIONS International Finance and Exchange Macroeconomic Policies and Financial Globalization and Human Welfare Rates Stability Policy Briefs Policy Briefs Policy Briefs 19-15 The Amazon Is a Carbon Bomb: How 19-5 Survival of the International Monetary 19-19 The WTO’s Existential Crisis: How to Can Brazil and the World Work Together Fund and Global Economic Cooperation Salvage Its Ability to Settle Trade Disputes to Avoid Setting It Off? (October) (April) (December) Monica de Bolle Edwin M. Truman Jeffrey J. Schott and Euijin Jung

19-14 Global E-Commerce Talks Stumble Working Papers 19-18 Are Central Banks Out of on Data Issues, Privacy, and More Ammunition to Fight a Recession? Not 19-20 Capital Controls and International (October) Quite. (November) Trade: An Industry Financial Vulnerability Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu Joseph E. Gagnon and Christopher G. Perspective (December) Collins 19-11 China, Like the US, Faces Challenges Kevin Lai (Federal Reserve Bank of New in Achieving Inclusive Growth Through York), Tao Wang (Swarthmore College), 19-16 Average Inflation Targeting Would Manufacturing (August) and David Xu Be a Weak Tool for the Fed to Deal with PIIE-CF40 Conference Series Recession and Chronic Low Inflation 19-7 The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict Robert Z. Lawrence (November) after 40 Years of Special Protection (April) David Reifschneider (former Federal Chad P. Bown 19-4 The Return of Economic Nationalism Reserve) and David Wilcox in Germany (April) 19-10 Keeping Up with the Future: Jeromin Zettelmeyer International Trade and Investment Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability 19-3 Opening Internet Monopolies to Policy Briefs and Geopolitical Risk (July) Competition with Data Sharing Mandates Cullen S. Hendrix and Sooyeon Kang (April) 19-17 US-China Trade War: Both Countries Lose, World Markets Adjust, Others Gain Claudia Biancotti and Paolo Ciocca Working Papers (Consob) (November) Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder 19-18 Should Monetary Policy Take Working Papers (US Naval Academy) Inequality and Climate Change into Account? (October) 19-15 Measuring the Rise of Economic 19-12 Chinese Investments in the US and Patrick Honohan Nationalism (August) EU Are Declining—for Similar Reasons Monica de Bolle and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (September) 19-16 Global Dimensions of US Monetary Jacob Funk Kirkegaard Policy (October) 19-9 Does Trade Reform Promote Maurice Obstfeld Economic Growth? A Review of Recent 19-9 The Rise of Global Innovation Evidence (May) by US Multinationals Poses Risks and 19-12 Aggregate Effects of Budget Douglas A. Irwin Opportunities (June) Stimulus: Evidence from the Large Fiscal Lee G. Branstetter, Britta Glennon (Wharton Expansions Database (July) 19-3 The Economic Benefits of Latino School, University of Pennsylvania), and J. Jérémie Cohen-Setton, Egor Gornostay, Immigration: How the Migrant Hispanic Bradford Jensen and Colombe Ladreit de Lacharrière Population’s Demographic Characteristics Contribute to US Growth (February) 19-1 China Should Join the New Trans- 19-8 How to Restructure Sovereign Debt: Gonzalo Huertas and Jacob Funk Pacific Partnership (January) Lessons from Four Decades (May) Kirkegaard Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer Lee Buchheit, Guillaume Chabert, Chanda (Johns Hopkins University and East-West DeLong, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer 19-2 Active Labor Market Policies: Lessons Center) from Other Countries for the United States 19-6 Low Inflation Bends the Phillips (January) Working Papers Curve (April) Chad P. Bown and Caroline Freund Joseph E. Gagnon and Christopher G. 19-17 WTO’ing a Resolution to the China Collins 19-1 The Problem of US Labor Force Subsidy Problem (October) Participation (January) Chad P. Bown and Jennifer A. Hillman 19-5 Brexit: Everyone Loses, but Britain Chad P. Bown and Caroline Freund (Council on Foreign Relations) Loses the Most (March) María C. Latorre (Universidad Complutense de Madrid), Zoryana Olekseyuk (German Development Institute), Hidemichi Yonezawa (Statistics Norway), and Sherman Robinson

51 COMPENDIUM Books PIIE Briefings Douglas A. Irwin Facing Up to Low Productivity Growth 19-1 Part II. US-China Economic Relations: Trump’s Assault on the Global Trading (February) From Conflict to Solutions (January) System and Why Decoupling From China Adam S. Posen and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Ha Jiming and Adam S. Posen, eds. Will Change Everything eds. Foreign Affairs. Article in the September/ Books October 2019 issue, August 13

Regional Studies The State Strikes Back: The End of Is Trump right when he tweets that tariffs Economic Reform in China? (January) bring in government revenue? Here are 5 Policy Briefs Nicholas R. Lardy things you need to know. 19-13 Hyperinflation in Venezuela: A Sustaining Economic Growth in Asia Washington Post, July 16 Stabilization Handbook (September) (January) Gonzalo Huertas Jérémie Cohen-Setton, Thomas Helbling, Peter A. Petri 19-8 Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis Adam S. Posen, and Changyong Rhee, eds. Why the CPTPP Could Be the Answer to (June) the US-China Trade War Adnan Mazarei South China Morning Post’s This Week in Asia, January 11 19-7 Fiscal Policy Options for Japan (May) COMMENTARY Olivier Blanchard and Takeshi Tashiro Adam S. Posen Globalization and Human Welfare 19-6 Efforts of Oil Exporters in the Middle China’s Next Move on Trade East and North Africa to Diversify Away Cullen S. Hendrix and John O’Loughlin Caixin Global, September 9 from Oil Have Fallen Short (April) In Search of Consensus on Climate- Adnan Mazarei Conflict Links, New Security Beat Jeffrey J. Schott Blog of the Environmental Change and Just Say No to the New Nafta: Trump’s 19-2 Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs Security Program of the Woodrow Wilson proposed United States-Mexico-Canada in a Time of Low Interest Rates (February) International Center for Scholars, August 12 agreement would restrict trade and Olivier Blanchard investment. Democrats should demand Jean Pisani-Ferry better Working Papers Europe’s New Green Identity Bloomberg.com, July 17 19-21 Did Trump’s Trade War Impact the Project Syndicate, December 30 2018 Election? (December) David Wilcox Emily Blanchard (Dartmouth College), Chad Should the Fed Enable Trump’s P. Bown, and Davin Chor International Trade and Investment Destructive Trade Policies? 19-19 Inflation Targets in Latin America C. Fred Bergsten Washington Post, September 6 (November) Congress Must Use the USMCA to Stop José De Gregorio Trump’s Trade Abuses Macroeconomic Policies and Financial The Hill, July 3 Stability 19-14 Creating a Euro Area Safe Asset without Mutualizing Risk (Much) (August) Chad P. Bown Martin Chorzempa Álvaro Leandro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer The Trade War Will Catch Up to Trump New US tech import controls are unacceptably broad: Proposed regulations, 19-13 EU Trade Policy amid the China-US The Atlantic, September 10 Clash: Caught in the Cross-Fire? (August) targeted at China, would threaten Anabel González and Nicolas Véron Trump’s Assault on the Global Trading American companies System and Why Decoupling From China Nikkei Asian Review, December 17 19-11 International Coordination Will Change Everything of Economic Policies in the Global Foreign Affairs. Article in the September/ Monica de Bolle Financial Crisis: Successes, Failures, and October 2019 issue, August 13 Venezuela Crisis Unites Trump and Consequences (July) Bolsonaro—for Now Edwin M. Truman Is Trump right when he tweets that tariffs bring in government revenue? Here are 5 Financial Times, May 13 19-10 Protectionism under Trump: The things you need to know. Gary Clyde Hufbauer China Shock, Intolerance, and the “First Washington Post, July 16 White President” (June) Trump’s Economic Hand Grenades Will Do Marcus Noland Gary Clyde Hufbauer Even More Damage to the US MarketWatch, August 14 19-4 Public Debt and Low Interest Rates Trade Deal with China Is a Must. But What Will It Look Like? (February) Mary E. Lovely Olivier Blanchard Real Clear Policy, March 8 Many Americans haven’t felt the burden of Trump’s tariffs. They’re about to CNN Business Perspectives, October 2

52 COMPENDIUM Jean Pisani-Ferry Arvind Subramanian Macroeconomic Policies and Financial The UK and the EU Should Prevent Mutual Universal Basic Income in India Is a Stability Assured Damage Tantalizingly Close Prospect C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon Project Syndicate, December 2 Financial Times, February 7 Comments on Proposed Modification The Great Wealth Tax Debate India’s Growth Rate Has Probably Been of Regulations for Countervailing Duty Proceedings, June 25 Project Syndicate, October 31 Overestimated for Years Indian Express, June 11 How to Ward Off the Next Recession Olivier Blanchard Project Syndicate, September 30 Nicolas Véron Reexamining the Economic Costs of Debt Brexit and Finance: Brace for No Impact? Prepared remarks submitted to the US Nicolas Véron House Budget Committee hearing on Istituto per gli Studi di Politica “Reexamining the Economic Costs of Debt”, Banking, FinTech, Big Tech: Emerging Internazionale, October 4 Challenges for Financial Policymakers November 20 VoxEU.org, September 24 TESTIMONY Regional Studies Regional Studies Monica de Bolle Olivier Blanchard and Takeshi Tashiro International Trade and Investment Preserving the Amazon: A Shared Moral Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Japan C. Fred Bergsten Imperative Prepared remarks presented at the hearing Nikkei, October 7 Current Trade Policies and the US on “Preserving the Amazon: A Shared Moral Economy Jérémie Cohen-Setton Imperative” before the US House Foreign Prepared remarks at the hearing Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on the The Proposed Reform of the European “Promoting Economic Growth: Exploring Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security, and Stability Mechanism Must Be Postponed the Impact of Recent Trade Policies on Trade, September 10 London School of Economics, December 11 the US Economy” of the Subcommittee on National Security, International Monica de Bolle Development and Monetary Policy, US Weekly column in Brazil’s newspaper House Financial Services Committee, US PODCAST Estadão House of Representatives, June 19 International Trade and Investment Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland Chad P. Bown Here’s why Kim Jong Un put sanctions Can We Save the WTO Appellate Body? Soumaya Keynes and Chad P. Bown first—and why North Korea is not Vietnam Testimony before the European Parliament Trade Talks, 50 Episodes Monkey Cage, Washington Post, February Committee on International Trade, 67: Blood Trade, January 15 28 December 3 68: Brexit Votes for Uncertainty, January 19 Tianlei Huang Transatlantic Policy Impacts of the US-EU 69: Slowbalization, January 25 Trade Conflict Book Review: Secrets and Power in 70: Nicholas Lardy on the Chinese Myanmar: Intelligence and the Fall of Statement at the hearing “Transatlantic Economy, January 30 Policy Impacts of the US–EU Trade Conflict” General Khin Nyunt 71: Money Matters for Trade, February 7 before the Subcommittee on Europe, New Mandala, November 5 Eurasia, Energy, and the Environment, US 72: Richard Baldwin on Disruption, Technology and Trade, February 14 Nicholas R. Lardy House Foreign Affairs Committee, United States House of Representatives, June 26, 73: Soybeans and the Trade War Fallout, Xi Jinping’s Turn Away from the Market February 23 Puts Chinese Growth at Risk Eurasia, Energy, and the Environment Financial Times, January 15 US House Foreign Affairs Committee, 74: Trade Talks Tough—Sanctions on North United States House of Representatives, Korea (#14), February 28 Mary E. Lovely June 26 75: A US-China Farm Subsidy Fight at the A trade war ceasefire is just what WTO, March 3 America’s economy needs Mary E. Lovely 76: Trump versus India: Fighting over CNN, December 13 Risks, Rewards, and Results: US Which Poor Countries Are Special, March 10 Companies in China and Chinese 77: Happy Tariffversary, March 24 Adam S. Posen Companies in the United States 78: Trade Talks Does Its Taxes, March 31 Low Inflation and Slow Growth Are the Testimony before the US-China Economic New Normal and Security Review Commission Hearing 79: A President Explains Mexican Trade, April 5 Nikkei Asian Review, December 13 on Risks, Rewards, and Results: US Companies in China and Chinese 80: Zeroing: The Biggest WTO Threat Companies in the United States, February You’ve Never Heard Of (#45), April 9 28

52 53 COMPENDIUM 81: National Security and Trade—The Fear 94: The Fed and the Trade War, with Adam 107: Bombed Embassies and Document of Imitation, April 18 Posen, August 3 Leaks – How China Got into the WTO, 82: How Big Is the USMCA? It’s Uncertain, 95: Is China a Currency Manipulator?, October 24 April 27 August 9 108: Making Services Trade Great, 83: Tariffs for Sale and Identity Politics, May 96: Trump’s Next China Tariffs and Fears in November 1 2 the Global Economy, August 16 109: A Different US-China Fight Hits the 84: Brexit, British Politics, and European 97: Watching China’s Human Rights, August Headlines, November 5 Parliamentary Elections, May 7 22 110: Will 3D Printing Increase Trade? Hear 85: Trump-China Negotiating Dramatics 98: What’s Wrong with Germany’s Trade All About It, November 12 and Even More Tariffs, May 12 Surplus?, August 28 111: Trade Policy Under Trump, November 86: When Is Tariff Revenue Bad Tax 99: The Surprising Story of the US Trade 25 Revenue?, May 17 Deficit with South Korea, September 6 112: Forensic Subsidies Detectives and 87: Trump Shifts His National Security 100: Sneaking Up on a No-Deal Brexit, Trade Disputes, December 9 Threats (Again), May 20 September 11 113: How and Why Congressional 88: Trump-Mexico Trade War Cheat Sheet, 101: Huawei, National Security, and the Democrats Tweaked the USMCA, June 1 Trade War, September 15 December 14 89: The Migration Crisis Behind Trump’s 102: Is Trump Beating the Chinese 114: US and China Announce a Phase-One Mexico Tariff Threat, June 6 Economy?, September 17 Deal, December 16 90: Trade Policy the Asian Way, June 11 103: US-China Trade War from the 115: The Trade War and US Elections, December 20 91: Can Trade Adjustment Assistance Trenches, September 24 Work?, July 4 104: How to Hit Currency Manipulators and 116: Fish Subsidies. What’s the Catch?, December 30 92: Japan and South Korea: Old Wounds, Fight the Strong Dollar, September 30 New Trade Fight, July 15 105: Aircraft Subsidy Disputes: How These 93: US Trade Policy Before Trump, with Tariffs Are Different, October 7 Ambassador Michael Froman, July 19 106: Trump’s Mini-Deal with China, October 14

54 COMPENDIUM 2019 PUBLIC MEETINGS

Panel Discussions on the PIIE-CF40 “China-US Conference on the “Changing International Trading Relations and the Global Economic System”; System”; keynote by Robert Azevêdo, World speakers: Chad Bown, PIIE; Gang XIAO, Chinese Trade Organization; panelists: Claudia Biancotti, People’s Political Consultative Conference; Caroline PIIE; Natalie Blyth, HSBC; Chad Bown, PIIE; Anabel Freund; World Bank Group; Feng LU, Peking González, PIIE; Gary Hufbauer, PIIE; Mary Lovely, University; Jeffrey Schott, PIIE, January 23 PIIE; Susan Lund, McKinsey Global Institute; Doug Presentation on the book ”The State Strikes Back: Murtha, Toyota; Daria Taglioni; World Bank; David The End of Economic Reform in China?” by Nicholas Weller, Google, April 11 Lardy, PIIE, January 28 Presentation on “The Future of European Integration Speech on “Italian and European Economic Outlook,” After 20 Years of the Euro”; speaker: Pierre by Giovanni Tria, Minister of Economy and Finance, Moscovici, European Commission; panelists: Marco Italy, January 29 Buti, European Commission; Patrick Honohan, PIIE; Charles Kupchan, Council on Foreign Relations; Presentation on the book “Confronting Inequality: Rebecca Patterson, Bessemer Trust; Jeromin How Societies can Choose Inclusive Growth” by Zettelmeyer, PIIE, April 11 Andrew Berg, IMF; Prakash Loungani, IMF; Jonathan D. Ostry, IMF; discussants: Heather Boushey, Speech on “The Transatlantic Partnership – Common Washington Center for Equitable Growth; Jason Values in a Changing World” by Olaf Scholz, Furman, PIIE, January 31 Federal Ministry of Finance and Office of the Vice Chancellor, Germany, April 12 Speech on “The Canadian Approach to Foreign Reserve Management” by Timothy Lane, Deputy Speech on “Secular Stagnation and the Future of Governor, Bank of Canada, February 6 Global Macroeconomic Policy” by Lawrence H. Summers, Harvard University, April 15 Presentation on the book “The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work” Nineteenth Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture, by Richard Baldwin, Professor of International “Principled Agents: Reflections on Central Bank Economics at the Graduate Institute (Geneva), and Independence” by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor, Founder of VoxEU.org, February 7 South African Reserve Bank, April 15 Presentation on “Fiscal Policy Measures for the Next Presentation on the book “Jump Starting America” Downturn”; presenters: Olivier Blanchard, PIIE; Jason by Jonathan Gruber, MIT; Simon Johnson, PIIE/MIT, Furman, PIIE; Maya MacGuineas, Committee for a April 29 Responsible Federal Budget; Angel Ubide, Citadel Discussion on “The US Economy and Trade Policy: A LLC, March 5 Conversation with Lawrence Kudlow” with Lawrence Presentation on the conference volume, “Facing Kudlow, National Economic Council, June 13 Up to Low Productivity Growth”; presenters: Karen Presentation on the book “Not Working: Where Have Dynan, PIIE; Adam Posen, PIIE; Anna Stansbury, All the Good Jobs Gone?” by David Blanchflower, Harvard University; Jeromin Zettelmeyer, PIIE, March Dartmouth College, June 14 20 Presentation on the release of “University of Release of the IMF Study, “Corporate Taxation in Maryland’s New Opinion Survey on Trade”; the Global Economy”; opening remarks: Christine presenters: I. M. (Mac) Destler, University of Lagarde, IMF; presenter: Michael Keen, IMF; Maryland; Steven Kull, University of Maryland, June panelists: Vitor Gaspar, IMF; Mindy Herzfeld, IMF; 26 Gary Hufbauer, PIIE, March 25 Release of the Monetary Policy Report on “The IMF Semi-Annual Meeting on “Global Economic Advice on Unconventional Monetary Policies: An Prospects: Spring 2019,” presenters: Martin Assessment by the Independent Evaluation Office Chorzempa, PIIE; Karen Dynan, PIIE; Joseph Gagnon, (IEO)”; presenters: Charles Collyns, IMF; Prakash PIIE, April 2 Loungani, IMF; discussants: Joseph E. Gagnon, PIIE; Presentation on the IMF Fiscal Monitor, Curbing Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, University of Maryland, June Corruption; presenter: Paulo Medas, IMF; discussants: 27 Vitor Gaspar, IMF; Susan Rose-Ackerman; Yale Presentation on “China and the World,” cohosted University; Frank Vogl, Transparency International/ with McKinsey Global Institute; presenter: Jonathan Partnership for Transparency Fund, April 4 Woetzel, McKinsey Global Institute; panelists: Discussions on the PIIE-Caixin “China: Economic Nicholas Lardy, PIIE; Mary Lovely, PIIE, July 10 Growth and Opening Up” and “World Bank Presentation on the IMF’s 2019 External Sector Transition: What Could Be Done?”; speakers: Report; “Exchange Rates and External Adjustment”; Min Zhu, Tsinghua University; Robert Zoellick, presenter: Gustavo Adler, IMF; discussants: José de AllianceBernstein; discussants: C. Fred Bergsten, Gregorio, PIIE; Joseph Gagnon, PIIE, September 11 PIIE; Martin Chorzempa, PIIE, April 10

54 55 COMPENDIUM Speech on “Good Outcomes Through Growth: Policy Institute; Gene Sperling, Former National Paths to Development Success” by David Malpass, Economic Council Director; Stefanie Stantcheva, President of the World Bank Group, September 17 Harvard University; Lawrence H. Summers, Harvard 2019 Annual O. John Olcay Lecture on Ethics and University; Laura Tyson, University of California, Economics, “Finance for People: Some Do’s and Berkeley; Philippe Van Parijs, University of Louvain; Don’ts” by Steve Cecchetti, Rosen Family Chair in David Wessel, Brookings; Min Zhu, Tsinghua International Finance at the Brandeis International University; Gabriel Zucman, University of California, Business School, September 18 Berkeley, October 17–18 Semi-Annual Meeting on “Global Economic Fifth Annual PIIE-CF40 China Economic Forum Prospects: Fall 2019,” presenters: Karen Dynan, PIIE, on “Chinese Financial System and US-China Trade Maury Obstfeld, PIIE; Jean Pisani-Ferry, PIIE, October Conflict,” presenters: GAO Shanwen, CF40, HE 8 Jianxiong, IMF, HUANG Yiping, Peking University, Nicholas Lardy, PIIE; Mary Lovely, PIIE, November 6 Presentation on book for “Currency, Credit and Crisis: Central Banking in Ireland and Europe” by Presentation on “Economic policy in the rough: Patrick Honohan, PIIE; discussant: Jacob Kirkegaard, A European journey” by Marco Buti, Director- PIIE, October 15 General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN), European Commission, November 12 Conference on “The Future of Money in the Digital Age,” co-hosted with Princeton University’s Discussion on “Data Protection and Digital Finance”; Bendheim Center for Finance; keynote: Lael presenter: Claudia Biancotti, PIIE; panelists: Martin Brainard, Federal Reserve Board; presenter: Markus Chorzempa, PIIE; Thomas Halpin, HSBC; Elise Houlik, Brunnermeier, Princeton University; panelists: Stefan Mastercard; Nicolas Véron, PIIE, November 11 Ingves, Riksbank; Simon Potter, PIIE; Hyun Song Release of the 22nd Edition of the Geneva Reports Shin, Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Martin on “Banking Disrupted? Financial Intermediation Wolff, Financial Times, October 16 in an Era of Transformative Technology” by Conference on “Combating Inequality: Rethinking Nicolas Veron, PIIE; discussant: Tobias Adrian, IMF, Policies to Reduce Inequality in Advanced November 19 Economies”; organizers: Olivier Blanchard, PIIE; Speech on “An update on the Brazilian economy Dani Rodrik, Harvard University; speakers: Daron and the government’s economic agenda” by Paulo Acemoglu, MIT Department of Economics; Philippe Guedes, Brazil’s Minister of Economy, November 26 Aghion, Harvard University; Danielle Allen, Harvard University; Ben Ansell, University of Oxford; David Autor, MIT Department of Economics; Sheri Berman, Columbia University; Marianne Bertrand, University of Chicago; Josh Bivens, EPI; Sandra Black, Columbia University; Heather Boushey, Center for Equitable Growth; Lucas Chancel, Paris School of Economics; William Darity Jr., Duke University; David Deming, Harvard Kennedy School; Peter Diamond, MIT Department of Economics; Christian Dustmann, University College London; David Ellwood, Harvard University; Richard Freeman, Harvard University; Caroline Freund, World Bank Group; Jason Furman, Harvard University; Hilary Hoynes, University of California, Berkeley; Lawrence Katz, Harvard University; Wojciech Kopczuk, Columbia University; Greg Mankiw, Harvard University; Nolan McCarty, Princeton University; Adam Posen, PIIE; Eduardo Porter, New York Times; Emmanuel Saez, University of California, Berkeley; Catherine Rampell, Washington Post; Jesse Rothstein, University of California, Berkeley; Tim Scanlon, Harvard University; Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Monetary Authority of Singapore; Heidi Shierholz, Economic

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